THE FUTURE OF MONEY Bernard A. Lietaer - library.uniteddiversity ...

Peter Schwartz, president of the Global Business Network, described
them as 'tools for taking the long view; they're stories about how the
world might turn out. [They are] stories about meaning. They explain
why things might happen, and they give order and coherence to
events. Stories are history's oldest way of organising and
communicating knowledge and one of the dearest channels into your
mind's eye.
Such scenario building has three objectives:
1. To challenge habits in mindsets, mental models, images and
beliefs. We all have our habitual ways of looking at the world,
consistent with our attitudes and beliefs. Such mindsets can filter out
useful insights. Scenarios enable us to momentarily take off these
filters and reveal the blind spots, the hidden assumptions, and open
new windows on the future.
2. To identify and better understand the underlying forces that are
driving pivotal events. Specifically in our case, the consequences of a
shift of control over money systems to various new players in society
will be highlighted.
3. To work creatively with these discoveries, and use the clarity they
inspire to shape a more desirable future.
Scenarios are not academic exercises. The scenario-building process
enabled Shell to forecast and prepare for the fall of the former Soviet
Union, thereby avoiding billion-dollar mistakes in North Sea oil
investments. Shell still updates its scenarios roughly every three
years.
This process also contributed to the 'South African miracle' of the
peaceful transition after Apartheid (see sidebar). These same methods