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IBM
Dataquest believes that IBM holds the winning hand in this card game. It is in a
good position to influence the outcome of the EISA/MCA challenge and can sway the
business community to embrace MCA. Our analysis is based on the following factors:
Compaq
• EISA may not be available from PC manufacturers for 9 to 18 months. This
gives IBM time to introduce products that can take advantage of MCA, and to
establish a user base. The sooner useful MCA applications hit the market, the
greater the market share MCA will capture.
• Although it has stated that the royalty structure will remain in place, IBM
always has the option of changing its mind, if it becomes beneficial.
• Companies that have a universal cross-licensing agreement in place with IBM
may not be required to pay the same royalty fees as companies that do not.
This makes it more attractive for those companies to manufacture MCA-based
PCs.
• It is being debated whether EISA or MCA, in the current configurations and
environment, is technically superior. We laelieve that the issue is really which
architecture will perform best in the future.
An expected requirement is the ability to expand to a 64-bit data path
and handle processing speeds above 40 MHz.
- ESIA will have problems with both the physical accommodation of a
64-bit bus and the electrical noise associated with high-speed processors.
- IBM has the time and the option to redesign the current MCA to
eliminate the debate and to clearly differentiate performance before the
first EISA machine is even shipped.
• Most importantly, whereas MCA exists now, EISA is, at present, vaporware.
Compaq Computer will hold an estimated 3.4 percent U.S. market share of personal
computers shipped in 1988. Compaq is also the leader of the EISA consortium, and we
believe that it holds enough market share and following to make EISA a viable product.
It was the first company to introduce an 80386 PC and continues to be a leading force in
the industry.
Dataquest believes that Compaq will follow through and introduce EISA regardless
of how the rest of the PC industry reacts to extended bus architectures. In fact,
Compaq has announced that, as of April 21, it will sever its relationship with
Businessland. Businessland has stated that it may back only MCA technology; although
Compaq denies that this caused the rift, many analysts believe otherwise.
ESAM Newsletter © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated April