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CT2 in the Office
Greater demand for CT2 base stations will come from the business market.
However, CT2 is unlikely to support sufficient call density for use in large, densely
packed office environments, which will limit it to small office environments.
At least two manufacturers, GPT and STC, are expected to launch a range of
standalone multiple-line cordless base stations in sizes ranging from 6 to 24 handsets.
These will possess some PBX-like features such as individual extensions, call forwarding,
and conference calling. A wide-area pager may be incorporated into some handset
models, partly to overcome the telepoint restriction of making outgoing calls only.
DATAQUEST ANALYSIS
This is the beginning of a new market—a time when predictions are most difficult to
make, but when, for investment purposes, they are most needed. The market for CT2
semiconductors depends on the market for CT2 equipment which will, in turn, depend on
how widespread telepoint usage becomes. Dataquest foresees three factors most critical
for the success of a CT2-based telepoint service in Europe. These factors are as follows:
• The CAI standard must succeed in becoming a European interim standard.
This is a vital step toward the European PTTs recognizing and adopting it for
telepoint use before DECT is finalized.
• The cost of a telepoint call compared with a normal call is significant. In the
United Kingdom, with heavy competition likely between the four licensed
consortia, we expect telepoint to cost roughly twice as much as a normal
telephone call. It is less clear if similar low tariffs will be adopted by the
PTTs in the other European countries.
• Handset prices must fall to about $140 by 1993 to make them affordable on a
wide scale. The interest shown by many potential handset manufacturers,
coupled with the several possibilities to reduce IC costs, suggests that this is
achievable (as discussed later in this newsletter).
We believe that the variability of these factors undermines the reliability of a single
forecast. Instead, we present estimates for the CT2 equipment markets according to the
two contrasting views outlined in the summary.
ESAM Newsletter © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated July