ResearchNewsletter - Archive Server
ResearchNewsletter - Archive Server
ResearchNewsletter - Archive Server
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"World Economic Overview"<br />
Joseph W. Duncan, Corporate Economist and Chief Statistician<br />
Dun & Bradstreet Corporation<br />
The U.S. trade deficit has been the world's engine of growth, but President George<br />
Bush's economic policy will have to tread a careful path between Draconian deficit<br />
reduction, which could lead to recession, and reduction measures that are too lax, which<br />
could lead to higher inflation. Mr. Duncan believes that President Bush can find the<br />
right balance and predicts high growth for the U.S. economy in the first half of 1989 and<br />
slow growth in the second half.<br />
However, five factors could affect that prediction as follows:<br />
A bail-out for the savings and loans will occur this year and will cost each U.S.<br />
citizen $1,000.<br />
The U.S fiscal deficit can only be reduced by higher taxes, and it is expected<br />
that corporation taxes will be increased.<br />
New Soviet links offer the United States the chance to reduce its obligations<br />
to NATO and give economic credits to Russia, which would help reduce the<br />
budget and trade deficits.<br />
Action will have to be taken on the debt burden of the less developed countries.<br />
Action will have to be taken on the growth of leveraged buyout debt.<br />
"New Frontiers in Technology"<br />
Hans Geyer, Assistant General Manager<br />
Intel Europe<br />
Intel has spent $250 million in the last five years on CAD, and every Intel design<br />
engineer has a Sun hooked to VAXes and IBM mainframes for simulation. Thus, Intel's<br />
'Megaprocessor' strategy for 1-million-plus transistor chips like the 486, i860, and the<br />
new version of its 80960 is well supported. These chips require close cooperation in the<br />
early stages of the design cycle between design technologists, process technologists, and<br />
manufacturing personnel. The result is that Intel's chips will be made on processes so<br />
complicated and unique to Intel that no other company will be capable of manufacturing<br />
them. Processor technology is evolving fast toward the microprocessor of the future,<br />
which, by 2000, will have 100 million transistors, 250-MHz operation, 2,000 mips and<br />
1-billion-flops performance.<br />
"Manufacturing Globally"<br />
Joel Monnier, Worldwide Corporate Manufacturing Manager<br />
SGS-Thorason Microelectronics<br />
The Japanese strength is in manufacturing science. SGS-Thomson has targeted the<br />
manufacturing standards it wants to attain within the next six years to match Japanese<br />
capability. The key is equipment uptime: SGS-Thomson's target is to increase the<br />
average length of time for which equipment works without stopping from today's<br />
© 1989 Dataquest Incorporated July ESAM Newsletter