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However, having overcome the technical and logistical problems of a digital system, the next hurdle for the network operators will be a commercial one. They will be in the position of operating two networks with different characteristics: • An analog network with wide coverage and a large subscriber base • A digital network with low coverage and few subscribers. The challenge for the operators is to manage successfully the transition from analog to digital system. DATAQUEST ANALYSIS Cellular radio has become firmly established across Europe as an indispensable communications medium. Dataquest believes that current trends indicate continued strong growth in the subscriber base well into the 1990s. Although the United Kingdom has experienced severe price erosion of radio telephone handsets, the prices throughout the rest of Europe are still relatively high. Increased growth in the subscriber base should enable manufacturers to improve manufacturing efficiency, and reduce the prices of mobile equipment. Dataquest also believes that there is room for suppliers of end-user equipment to reduce margins per unit, and increase revenues from the larger volumes that should result. The introduction of digital networks in 1991 will produce additional challenges for equipment suppliers and network operators. Dataquest believes the advent of competition in network operation will be of benefit to all parties, since prices will fall and demand will rise. The additional features offered by a digital system should greatly enhance its utility to current and future users of mobile technology. However, we do envisage some transient problems during the introductory period. This topic is discussed in the third newsletter in the series about cellular radio. (This document is reprinted with the permission of Dataquest's European Telecommunications Inudstry Service.) Jim Eastlake Ted Richardson © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated July ESAM Newsletter
Dataqyest I acomiKinyof I ThcDun&BradsticctCcMporation Research Newsletter INTRODUCTION ESAM Code: Volume II Newsletters 1989-15 0004614 PARTI CELLULAR RADIO—ITS HISTORY AND PRINCIPLES Cellular radio has been operating for just seven years in Europe and in that time has experienced tremendous growth which at present shows no sign of slowing down. This newsletter is the first in a series of three newsletters about cellular radio. These newsletters are entitled: • Part I: Cellular Radio—Its History and Principles • Part II: Cellular Radio in Europe—Growing into the Future • Part III: Digital Cellular Radio—The Market Forces This newsletter reviews the history and principles of this communication medium. The second newsletter reviews the current European market and its short-term prospects, while the third newsletter takes a longer-term view and discusses the prospects for the pan-European digital cellular network. PRINCIPLES OF CELLULAR RADIO Although the main idea for a "cellular" radio system originated in the Bell Telephone Laboratories in 1947, it was not until the early 1980s that technology made the first systems practicable. The main advantage of a cellular system over conventional mobile radio systems is its ability to handle a wider range of traffic loading through a more efficient reuse of available frequency spectrum. Ultimately cellular systems cater for considerably more customers than the earlier, traditional mobile radio systems. Cell Structure The area required to be covered is split into a number of smaller areas (cells). Each cell is equipped with its own radio base station. The cells are arranged together into clusters, the available number of radio channels being allocated to the clusters in a regular pattern that repeats over the entire coverage area. This technique enables radio channels to be reused several times throughout the coverage area. The number of cells in a cluster has to be chosen such that the clusters fit together into a continuous area. Only certain configurations do this. Typical cluster arrangements are based on 4, 7, 12, or 21 cells (see Figure 1). © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated July—Reproduction Prohibited 77K comem of this report represenls our imerpreuttion and analysis cînfirmatkm generally amilabk lo the public or released by responsible individuals m the subject companies, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness It does not contain material provided to us in coiffidence by our clients. Individual companies reported on and analyzed by Dataquest may be clients of this and/or other Dataquest services. This irfiirmation is not furnished in connection with a sak or o^r to sell securUies or in connectum with the sohatatwn of an c^r to buy securities. This film and its parent and/or their cîcers, stockholders, or members of their Jiimilies may, from rime to time, have a Img or short position in the securities mentioned and may sell or buy such securities. Dataquest Incorporated, 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292
Page 1: European Semiconductor Application
Page 4 and 5: Dataquest a company of The Dun& Bra
Page 6 and 7: i EUROPEAN SEMICONDUCTOR PROCUREMEN
Page 8 and 9: Europe-based manufacturers were con
Page 10 and 11: Table 2 (Continued) Major Semicondu
Page 12 and 13: Page Printers Page printers are com
Page 14 and 15: PRINTER INDUSTRY DEFINITIONS APPEND
Page 16 and 17: TABLE 1 Benefits from Electronic Fu
Page 18 and 19: TABLE 3 Key Electronic Electricity
Page 20 and 21: DataQuest aaMTipanyof ThcDunSTBrads
Page 22 and 23: ESAM 0002383 Parcemoea 100% f Figur
Page 24 and 25: Which Computer? The computers purch
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Page 28 and 29: However, although there can be litt
Page 30 and 31: DATAQUEST CONCLUSIONS The assertion
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Page 34 and 35: COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT IN THE UNIT
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Page 46 and 47: "Think Global—Act Global" Jose Me
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Page 50 and 51: Mv^-y5t5;fsi ^ci Research DataQuest
Page 52 and 53: Figure 2 Difference between Semicon
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Page 68 and 69: Experienced disk drive producers we
Page 70 and 71: The Japanese may well make further
Page 72 and 73: CORDLESS STANDARDS CT2 cordless tec
Page 74 and 75: CT2's strengths reside in its appli
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Page 84 and 85: MCA MCA Delivery Time IBM has been
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EISA Consortium Dataquest believes
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Dataquest Conference Schedule 1989
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Background The UNIX penetration int
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Figure 3 European UNIX Computer Shi
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1987 Total $22.4 Billion Figure 5 U
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DATAQUEST ANALYSIS The issue of UNI
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• Small department computers (SDC
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DataQuest Conference Schedule 1989
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8086/88 286 386 Non-compatible NA =
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ANALYSIS OF SEMICONDUCTOR CONTENT T
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FUTURE TRENDS The advent of markets
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Benelux France Italy Scandinavia U.
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Italy The Italian market exhibited
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The Rest of Europe market is expect
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Intel and National Semiconductor ha
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Dataquest believes that continuing
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Table 2 Estimated Semiconductor Con
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Production in Europe Dataquest esti
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Dataquest Conference Schedule 1989
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THE STANDARDS: MAC VERSUS MUSE Euro
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DATAQUEST ANALYSIS Evolution of MAC
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Year Table 1 Estimated IC Value by
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In addition to the $217 million mar
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TOO MANY HURDLES? The promise that
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Millions of Dollars 150 140 120 100
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Dataqyesl I aoHTiparTvof The Di in
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Figure 1 shows how the ISDN fits to
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ISDN IC FUNCTIONS Table 1 Bus Forma
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Figure 3 ISDN Semiconductor Demand
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PTT (P
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fe- Dataoyest OMporatnn Research Ne
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Air Conditioners Microwave Ovens Wa
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Bosch-Siemens has four plants in Ge
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DataQuest t acompAiwcf The EînK^sd
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What, I hear you ask, gives me the
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The 1980s have brought us to Phase
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What I would like to do now is to e
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(Slide 22) This necessary adjustmen
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procurement, to eventual export of
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(Slide 1) (Slide 2) 1992: HAS EUROP
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(Slide 5) (Slide 6) 1992 IMPACT •
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(Slide 9) (Slide 10) EUROPEAN SEMIC
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(Slide 13) (Slide 14) EUROPEAN COMP
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(Slide 17) EUROPEAN END-USE VENDOR
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(Slide 21) (Slide 22) Europe Other
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(Slide 25) (Slide 26) rtnu stack ST
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(Slide 29) (Slide 30) SUPPLIER/CUST
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(Slide 33) (Slide 34) EUROPEAN ELEC
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(Slide 37) THE 1992 CHALLENGE HIGH
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Millions of Units 12- 10- 8- 6- 4-
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Most of the Japanese firms are quit
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Western Europe North America Rest o
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Local Content In June 1987, the EEC
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Activity Factory Set Up Change Expo
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All this activity is of great inter
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Table 2 European Facsimile Market S
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Color Facsimile Machines The Japane
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Productivity Race The facsimile out
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mm Dataoyest aconwanyof The Diin& B
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Figure 2 Geographic Distributi
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Table 3 Semiconductor Inventories R
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heavily used over their European co
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Dataqyest acomranyof ihcDSnlTBradsb
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DATAQUEST ANALYSIS Prior to the int
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NOKIA As shown in Figure 1, the Nok
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Net sales from this division for th
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^m DataQuest a company of TneDun& B
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Country West Germany France United
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• Road map directories in automob
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Table 1 EUROPEAN COMâJNICATIONS EQ
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Application Telex Teletex Videotex
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Dataquest a company of The Dun & Br
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Research Depth of research includes
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Table 3 EUROPEAN INPUT/OUTPUT RATIO
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Dataoyest k^ i m a company of ^ W D
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for mag stripe technology were adop
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financial community today, without
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•'95% Figure 1 MANUFACTURING AUT(
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standards to serve the Italian mark
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In an alliance with EMUG, 30 French
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In spite of these bright spots, Dat
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m^m Dataquesl T^^Suj-iA^^'-fT'i^v f
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Figure 2 Revenue by Region Source:
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Strategic Changes Figure 4 Worldwid
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Terminals Figure 5 Pyramid of Produ
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The Nixdorf 8850 Figure 6 Communica
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The Nixdorf 8870 The 8870 product f
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Figure 7 PHOTO OF PWS-X Source: Nix
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Communication between Nixdorf produ
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The business orientation continues
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Nixdorf intends to exploit the stre
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s^^^s-^f ^^^li^^^^^ DataQuest acomp
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Type of Deflktoo DevicB Display Ter
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INSTALLED BASE OF DESKTOP TERMINALS
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Word Processors Shipments of standa
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:oo« 80% 60% - 40% 20% Figures Eur
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Dataquest expects that by 1991, the
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Appendix A DEFINITIONS OF KEYBOARD
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Appendix B CONNECTION TECHNOLOGIES
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Manufacturer APD Apple Apricot Bull
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of computer graphics and storage su
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