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Which Computer? The computers purchased by home users are strongly influenced by their previous experience with computers, either in the classroom, at their workplace or at their home with a game/hobbyist machine. Thus, IBM compatibility is almost a prerequisite for most employees wishing to work at home, while non-compatible machines tend to predominate where PCs are used in a strictiy family environment. PCs bought by home users are also becoming more high powered. Already, certain long-established vendors of home computers, such as the British vendor Acorn, have introduced highly sophisticated models equipped with RISC processors. Low-cost UNIX workstations are also on the horizon. As in the business market, the availability of increasingly powerful hardware, including hardware based on the Intel family, is one of the driving forces of the home market. If the percentage for PC penetration in the home market is really to increase, the hardware needs to become considerably more user-friendly, and with better performance, than at present. Both requirements—user-friendliness and pure performance—can only be met by more powerful processors, allowing really sophisticated applications to be run, such as the previously mentioned Domotique applications. Current pricing will initially limit the market for such models to the more elitist and affluent "power users," but prices are expected to drop and highly user-friendly and powerful PCs will become available for even the most computer-illiterate households. Expensive Entry Tickets in Promotion and Distribution The home market is characterized by its high barriers for entry, which make it difficult for any newcomer to this market to acquire a market share that really challenges the current market leaders. The sheer investment in marketing and promotion in order to build up a market presence, and the resources involved in the development of services and other complementary activities around the PC hardware, are all factors adding to the high barriers for entry in the home market Most established home vendors are deeply involved in the area of software, and support user clubs, dedicated brand-oriented magazines, and so on. Additionally, the research and development (R&D) costs involved in the supply of a challenging and complete product line are high and prohibitive for many potential newcomers. Another significant entry barrier is the structure of the distribution channels for the home market. The home segment is typically supplied by non-dedicated PC dealers, such as the various kinds of mass merchandisers—-department stores, hypermarkets and cash and carry stores—hi-fi and video shops, and stationery stores. These home market dealers tend to have a highly concentrated structure, and are mainly controlled by large chains or a purchasing group. It is therefore critical to get shelf space among the relatively few companies that control a large proportion of the home market at the retail level. At the same time, mass merchandisers that sell PCs are very selective and arc willing to sell only a restricted number of strong and potentially best-selling brands. Examples of these mass merchandisers are Auchan, FNAC and NASA in France; Dixons in the United Kingdom; ESAM © 1989 Dataquest U.K. Limited September 5 0002383
El Corte Inglds in Spain; Vroom & Dreesmann in the Netherlands; Bilka in Denmark; and Kaufhof in West Germany. Specialist Vendors Dominate the Market Largely as a result of the importance of these entry barriers, the competitive situation on the home market is one of extreme concentration. In 1988 three vendors, Atari, Commodore and Amstrad, had a combined market share of close to 70 percent. This almost oligopolistic nature of the home market contrasts sharply with the structure of the 1988 business market, where 11 vendors accounted for not more than 60 percent of total sales. Figure 4 shows the percentage market shares in terms of shipments of the main vendors in both 1987 and 1988. Figure 4 European PC Home Market 1987 and 1988 Shipments by Vendor J t* "--..^^ Amstrad Commodore ^ ^ ^ 23.2% Total 1987 Market 767,340 Units T.m^ Commodore 23.4% Total 1988 Market 1,2 Million Units others Source: Dataquest September 1989 The three leading vendors in the home market are companies that are highly specialized toward, and with a background in, consumer-electronics products. Cuirentiy, tiieir specialization is also reflected in the fact that a high proportion of tiieir business is done on tiie home market, witii sales to the business market accounting for a relatively low proportion of their total sales. 1989 Dataquest U.K. Limited September ESAM 0002383
Page 1: European Semiconductor Application
Page 4 and 5: Dataquest a company of The Dun& Bra
Page 6 and 7: i EUROPEAN SEMICONDUCTOR PROCUREMEN
Page 8 and 9: Europe-based manufacturers were con
Page 10 and 11: Table 2 (Continued) Major Semicondu
Page 12 and 13: Page Printers Page printers are com
Page 14 and 15: PRINTER INDUSTRY DEFINITIONS APPEND
Page 16 and 17: TABLE 1 Benefits from Electronic Fu
Page 18 and 19: TABLE 3 Key Electronic Electricity
Page 20 and 21: DataQuest aaMTipanyof ThcDunSTBrads
Page 22 and 23: ESAM 0002383 Parcemoea 100% f Figur
Page 26 and 27: Atari, which became the number one
Page 28 and 29: However, although there can be litt
Page 30 and 31: DATAQUEST CONCLUSIONS The assertion
Page 32 and 33: 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0004613
Page 34 and 35: COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT IN THE UNIT
Page 36 and 37: However, having overcome the techni
Page 38 and 39: 0004614-1 Figure 1 Cell-Repeat Patt
Page 40 and 41: Registration Within the system, a n
Page 42 and 43: i^M$M:M DataQuest accmipanyof ihe D
Page 44 and 45: 30 minutes to 600 minutes by 1995.
Page 46 and 47: "Think Global—Act Global" Jose Me
Page 48 and 49: "Telecommunications Technologies fo
Page 50 and 51: Mv^-y5t5;fsi ^ci Research DataQuest
Page 52 and 53: Figure 2 Difference between Semicon
Page 60 and 61: Dataquest anticipates an era of gre
Page 62 and 63: fflOH GROWTH RATE ATTRACTS MANY NEW
Page 64 and 65: * Average selling prices (ASPs) wil
Page 66 and 67: DATAQUEST CONCLUSIONS The rapid ini
Page 68 and 69: Experienced disk drive producers we
Page 70 and 71: The Japanese may well make further
Page 72 and 73: CORDLESS STANDARDS CT2 cordless tec
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CT2's strengths reside in its appli
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The Upside Scenario Figure 1 shows
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Table 2 Estimated Semiconductor Con
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DATAQUEST CONCLUSIONS CT2's main ap
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The present ISA, or AT bus, is not
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MCA MCA Delivery Time IBM has been
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EISA Consortium Dataquest believes
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Dataquest Conference Schedule 1989
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Background The UNIX penetration int
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Figure 3 European UNIX Computer Shi
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1987 Total $22.4 Billion Figure 5 U
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DATAQUEST ANALYSIS The issue of UNI
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• Small department computers (SDC
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DataQuest Conference Schedule 1989
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8086/88 286 386 Non-compatible NA =
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ANALYSIS OF SEMICONDUCTOR CONTENT T
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FUTURE TRENDS The advent of markets
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Benelux France Italy Scandinavia U.
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Italy The Italian market exhibited
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The Rest of Europe market is expect
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Intel and National Semiconductor ha
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Dataquest believes that continuing
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Table 2 Estimated Semiconductor Con
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Production in Europe Dataquest esti
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Dataquest Conference Schedule 1989
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THE STANDARDS: MAC VERSUS MUSE Euro
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DATAQUEST ANALYSIS Evolution of MAC
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Year Table 1 Estimated IC Value by
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In addition to the $217 million mar
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TOO MANY HURDLES? The promise that
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Millions of Dollars 150 140 120 100
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Dataqyesl I aoHTiparTvof The Di in
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Figure 1 shows how the ISDN fits to
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ISDN IC FUNCTIONS Table 1 Bus Forma
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Figure 3 ISDN Semiconductor Demand
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PTT (P
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fe- Dataoyest OMporatnn Research Ne
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Air Conditioners Microwave Ovens Wa
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Bosch-Siemens has four plants in Ge
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DataQuest t acompAiwcf The E^inK^sd
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What, I hear you ask, gives me the
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The 1980s have brought us to Phase
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What I would like to do now is to e
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(Slide 22) This necessary adjustmen
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procurement, to eventual export of
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(Slide 1) (Slide 2) 1992: HAS EUROP
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(Slide 5) (Slide 6) 1992 IMPACT •
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(Slide 9) (Slide 10) EUROPEAN SEMIC
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(Slide 13) (Slide 14) EUROPEAN COMP
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(Slide 17) EUROPEAN END-USE VENDOR
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(Slide 21) (Slide 22) Europe Other
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(Slide 25) (Slide 26) rtnu stack ST
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(Slide 29) (Slide 30) SUPPLIER/CUST
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(Slide 33) (Slide 34) EUROPEAN ELEC
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(Slide 37) THE 1992 CHALLENGE HIGH
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Millions of Units 12- 10- 8- 6- 4-
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Most of the Japanese firms are quit
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Western Europe North America Rest o
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Local Content In June 1987, the EEC
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Activity Factory Set Up Change Expo
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All this activity is of great inter
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Table 2 European Facsimile Market S
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Color Facsimile Machines The Japane
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Productivity Race The facsimile out
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mm Dataoyest aconwanyof The Diin& B
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Figure 2 Geographic Distributi
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Table 3 Semiconductor Inventories R
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heavily used over their European co
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Dataqyest acomranyof ihcDSnlTBradsb
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DATAQUEST ANALYSIS Prior to the int
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NOKIA As shown in Figure 1, the Nok
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Net sales from this division for th
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^m DataQuest a company of TneDun& B
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Country West Germany France United
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• Road map directories in automob
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Table 1 EUROPEAN COM^aJNICATIONS EQ
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Application Telex Teletex Videotex
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Dataquest a company of The Dun & Br
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Research Depth of research includes
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Table 3 EUROPEAN INPUT/OUTPUT RATIO
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Dataoyest k^ i m a company of ^ W D
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for mag stripe technology were adop
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financial community today, without
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•'95% Figure 1 MANUFACTURING AUT(
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standards to serve the Italian mark
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In an alliance with EMUG, 30 French
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In spite of these bright spots, Dat
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m^m Dataquesl T^^Suj-iA^^'-fT'i^v f
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Figure 2 Revenue by Region Source:
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Strategic Changes Figure 4 Worldwid
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Terminals Figure 5 Pyramid of Produ
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The Nixdorf 8850 Figure 6 Communica
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The Nixdorf 8870 The 8870 product f
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Figure 7 PHOTO OF PWS-X Source: Nix
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Communication between Nixdorf produ
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The business orientation continues
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Nixdorf intends to exploit the stre
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s^^^s-^f ^^^li^^^^^ DataQuest acomp
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Type of Deflktoo DevicB Display Ter
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INSTALLED BASE OF DESKTOP TERMINALS
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Word Processors Shipments of standa
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:oo« 80% 60% - 40% 20% Figures Eur
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Dataquest expects that by 1991, the
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Appendix A DEFINITIONS OF KEYBOARD
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Appendix B CONNECTION TECHNOLOGIES
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Manufacturer APD Apple Apricot Bull
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of computer graphics and storage su
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