ResearchNewsletter - Archive Server

Market Analysis and Forecast
From 1984 through 1986, most facsimile shipments in Europe and in the United
States were aimed at businesses' communication rooms, in which the fax machine
typically stood next to the telex machine. In 1986 and 1987, the low-end facsimile
products began to penetrate smaller business organizations and started to find their way
into department-level applications.
Dataquest believes that shipments through 1992 will show the greatest growth in the
low-end product sectors. The low-end products are becoming increasingly popular in
Japan; now they are becoming known by the alternative name, "personal fax." Using
innovative production techniques, the Japanese manufacturers are making these products
even more compact, progressively decreasing the footprint size, and integrating a
telephone handset with the box.
Personal faxes are beginning to penetrate very small businesses now, in addition to
being targeted for executive desktops. As the average selling price (ASP) of these
machines continues to decline, two questions arise:
• What proportion of desktops and homes of business executives will become
populated by faxes? In other words, what is the personal fax total available
market (TAM)?
• What channels of distribution should be used for these products as the cost of
sales becomes a proportionally more significant factor in the product price?
The Japanese fax market, which is one to two years ahead of the European and U.S.
markets in maturity, is already beginning to face these issues. Retail channels are being
tried, and Dataquest recently noted personal fax machines on sale in Tokyo stores for as
little as ¥79,000 ($640).
Focusing on retail channels, however, ignores the issue that the fax machine
remains, in principal, a business tool with the need for effective supplier provisions and
maintenance contracts. Thus, the retail channel is less attractive to the business
purchaser. Home, door-to-door salespeople are finding resistance for similar reasons.
Dataquest speculates whether improved advertising techniques, combined with
toll-free call facilities for more accurate prospective customer identification prior to
sales calls, would reduce direct sales costs (i.e., through achieving a higher percentage
sales close rate). Other low-cost sales channels may exist, including office-related
electronics retail stores and mail order sales.
TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
Personal Fax Machines
Personal fax machines that are compatible with CCITT Group III standards certainly
show much growth potential in the short to medium term.
ESAM Newsletter © 1988 Dataquest Incorporated May