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Figure 2 presents Dataquest's forecast on how production volumes of these receiver
types will change over the next 12 years. Conventional PAL/SECAM receivers will
succumb gradually to MAC receivers (which may continue to offer a PAL or SECAM
option). We expect this transition to be slow for two reasons. First, it will be obligatory
in the initial phase for cable operators in Germany to convert their MAC signals to PAL,
with a similar move expected in France. Second, PAL has received a new lease on life
following its adoption by News International to broadcast its Sky channels via the Astra
satellite. The appearance of Palcrypt conditional access adaptors later this year will
enable Sky to carry pay channels, and further weakens a key selling point for D-MAC.
Millions of Units
14-
12
10
8-
4-
t$
\
I
\
1988
Total = 14.60
0003193-2
Figure 2
Estimated European Television Receiver Production
I
I
I
1990
16.85
.'^1-1
1992
18.47
Impact on the SemicoiKhictor Market
KS^ PAUSECAM Receivers [H] Wide MAC Receiver
1^^ MAC Adaptors H I HO-MAC Receiver
Is^ MAC Receivers
1994
19.79
1996
18.22
1998
19.03
2000
17.56
Source: Dataquest
February 1989
The extent to which HD-MAC receivers will penetrate the European consumer
market is unclear. When they appear, their real cost will be about the same as that of
the early color receivers of the late 1960s—but the move to a cleaner picture may not
be as desirable as the move to color. HD-MAC's acceptance also will be inhibited by the
fact that, when it arrives in 1995, it will compete with the improved D-MAC sets
already available in the stores.
Despite the imminent appearance of D-MAC and D2-MAC receivers, major growth
in European receiver IC consumption depends on the acceptance of HD-MAC. These
receivers will have a greater IC content compared with their MAC predecessors. Table 1
presents our forecast of the relative mix between IC function for PAL/SECAM, MAC,
and HD-MAC receivers.
ESAM Newsletter
© 1989 Dataquest Incorporated February