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DATAQUEST ANALYSIS Evolution of MAC We expect MAC to follow a step-by-step evolution in Europe, as shown in Figure 1. The first step begins this year when subscribers connect conventional PAL or SECAM sets to MAC adaptors to receive U.K. BSB and French TDF-1 satellite channels. MAC adaptors also will be needed to receive the new cable television networks, mainly in France and West Germany. By the end of 1990, manufacturers will have incorporated MAC decoders into their receivers and, by 1992, we expect wide-screen versions to be available. The appearance of high-definition HD-MAC receivers in the mid-1990s will mark the final stage in MAC's development. These high-definition receivers will use light projection in place of CRT displays to allow large-screen viewing without adding bulk to the receiver. 0003193-1 Stage 1: 1989 - 1992 Figure 1 MAC Devel(q>ment Path D(2)-MAC Adaptor Stage 2: 1990 - 2000 Stage 3: 1991 - 2000+ Stage 4: 1995 - 2000+ ,^J^JW•LLLl.|.|.|.•.•>J»; Conventional Ktm PAL/SECAM Receiver Jl-^=^' U.MMf.W" •vn'ni'i'rinTii'HTHtiniinnnr-r Integral MAC Receiver I iHiNnrr uriiimnii i s=i:'iVi:i'i':'i" Wide-Screen MAC Receiver T'"v;Vi'i""' I'Tniri'tiin'ry,, 'iTn-r HD-MAC _ Receiver I'f*^ "^ "'"": iMiniMriiiinnTt Source: IBA 4 © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated February ESAM Newsletter
Figure 2 presents Dataquest's forecast on how production volumes of these receiver types will change over the next 12 years. Conventional PAL/SECAM receivers will succumb gradually to MAC receivers (which may continue to offer a PAL or SECAM option). We expect this transition to be slow for two reasons. First, it will be obligatory in the initial phase for cable operators in Germany to convert their MAC signals to PAL, with a similar move expected in France. Second, PAL has received a new lease on life following its adoption by News International to broadcast its Sky channels via the Astra satellite. The appearance of Palcrypt conditional access adaptors later this year will enable Sky to carry pay channels, and further weakens a key selling point for D-MAC. Millions of Units 14- 12 10 8- 4- t$ \ I \ 1988 Total = 14.60 0003193-2 Figure 2 Estimated European Television Receiver Production I I I 1990 16.85 .'^1-1 1992 18.47 Impact on the SemicoiKhictor Market KS^ PAUSECAM Receivers [H] Wide MAC Receiver 1^^ MAC Adaptors H I HO-MAC Receiver Is^ MAC Receivers 1994 19.79 1996 18.22 1998 19.03 2000 17.56 Source: Dataquest February 1989 The extent to which HD-MAC receivers will penetrate the European consumer market is unclear. When they appear, their real cost will be about the same as that of the early color receivers of the late 1960s—but the move to a cleaner picture may not be as desirable as the move to color. HD-MAC's acceptance also will be inhibited by the fact that, when it arrives in 1995, it will compete with the improved D-MAC sets already available in the stores. Despite the imminent appearance of D-MAC and D2-MAC receivers, major growth in European receiver IC consumption depends on the acceptance of HD-MAC. These receivers will have a greater IC content compared with their MAC predecessors. Table 1 presents our forecast of the relative mix between IC function for PAL/SECAM, MAC, and HD-MAC receivers. ESAM Newsletter © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated February
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European Semiconductor Application
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Dataquest a company of The Dun& Bra
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i EUROPEAN SEMICONDUCTOR PROCUREMEN
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Europe-based manufacturers were con
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Table 2 (Continued) Major Semicondu
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Page Printers Page printers are com
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PRINTER INDUSTRY DEFINITIONS APPEND
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TABLE 1 Benefits from Electronic Fu
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TABLE 3 Key Electronic Electricity
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DataQuest aaMTipanyof ThcDunSTBrads
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ESAM 0002383 Parcemoea 100% f Figur
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Which Computer? The computers purch
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Atari, which became the number one
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However, although there can be litt
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DATAQUEST CONCLUSIONS The assertion
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1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0004613
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COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT IN THE UNIT
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However, having overcome the techni
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0004614-1 Figure 1 Cell-Repeat Patt
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Registration Within the system, a n
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i^M$M:M DataQuest accmipanyof ihe D
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30 minutes to 600 minutes by 1995.
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"Think Global—Act Global" Jose Me
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"Telecommunications Technologies fo
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Mv^-y5t5;fsi ^ci Research DataQuest
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Figure 2 Difference between Semicon
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Dataquest anticipates an era of gre
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fflOH GROWTH RATE ATTRACTS MANY NEW
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* Average selling prices (ASPs) wil
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DATAQUEST CONCLUSIONS The rapid ini
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Experienced disk drive producers we
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The Japanese may well make further
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CORDLESS STANDARDS CT2 cordless tec
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CT2's strengths reside in its appli
Page 76 and 77: The Upside Scenario Figure 1 shows
Page 78 and 79: Table 2 Estimated Semiconductor Con
Page 80 and 81: DATAQUEST CONCLUSIONS CT2's main ap
Page 82 and 83: The present ISA, or AT bus, is not
Page 84 and 85: MCA MCA Delivery Time IBM has been
Page 86 and 87: EISA Consortium Dataquest believes
Page 88 and 89: Dataquest Conference Schedule 1989
Page 90 and 91: Background The UNIX penetration int
Page 92 and 93: Figure 3 European UNIX Computer Shi
Page 94 and 95: 1987 Total $22.4 Billion Figure 5 U
Page 96 and 97: DATAQUEST ANALYSIS The issue of UNI
Page 98 and 99: • Small department computers (SDC
Page 100 and 101: DataQuest Conference Schedule 1989
Page 102 and 103: 8086/88 286 386 Non-compatible NA =
Page 104 and 105: ANALYSIS OF SEMICONDUCTOR CONTENT T
Page 106 and 107: FUTURE TRENDS The advent of markets
Page 108 and 109: Benelux France Italy Scandinavia U.
Page 110 and 111: Italy The Italian market exhibited
Page 112 and 113: The Rest of Europe market is expect
Page 114 and 115: Intel and National Semiconductor ha
Page 116 and 117: Dataquest believes that continuing
Page 118 and 119: Table 2 Estimated Semiconductor Con
Page 120 and 121: Production in Europe Dataquest esti
Page 122 and 123: Dataquest Conference Schedule 1989
Page 124 and 125: THE STANDARDS: MAC VERSUS MUSE Euro
Page 128 and 129: Year Table 1 Estimated IC Value by
Page 130 and 131: In addition to the $217 million mar
Page 132 and 133: TOO MANY HURDLES? The promise that
Page 134 and 135: Millions of Dollars 150 140 120 100
Page 136 and 137: Dataqyesl I aoHTiparTvof The Di in
Page 138 and 139: Figure 1 shows how the ISDN fits to
Page 140 and 141: ISDN IC FUNCTIONS Table 1 Bus Forma
Page 142 and 143: Figure 3 ISDN Semiconductor Demand
Page 144 and 145: PTT (P
Page 146 and 147: fe- Dataoyest OMporatnn Research Ne
Page 148 and 149: Air Conditioners Microwave Ovens Wa
Page 150 and 151: Bosch-Siemens has four plants in Ge
Page 152 and 153: DataQuest t acompAiwcf The E^inK^sd
Page 154 and 155: What, I hear you ask, gives me the
Page 156 and 157: The 1980s have brought us to Phase
Page 158 and 159: What I would like to do now is to e
Page 160 and 161: (Slide 22) This necessary adjustmen
Page 162 and 163: procurement, to eventual export of
Page 164 and 165: (Slide 1) (Slide 2) 1992: HAS EUROP
Page 166 and 167: (Slide 5) (Slide 6) 1992 IMPACT •
Page 168 and 169: (Slide 9) (Slide 10) EUROPEAN SEMIC
Page 170 and 171: (Slide 13) (Slide 14) EUROPEAN COMP
Page 172 and 173: (Slide 17) EUROPEAN END-USE VENDOR
Page 174 and 175: (Slide 21) (Slide 22) Europe Other
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(Slide 25) (Slide 26) rtnu stack ST
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(Slide 29) (Slide 30) SUPPLIER/CUST
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(Slide 33) (Slide 34) EUROPEAN ELEC
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(Slide 37) THE 1992 CHALLENGE HIGH
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Millions of Units 12- 10- 8- 6- 4-
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Most of the Japanese firms are quit
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Western Europe North America Rest o
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Local Content In June 1987, the EEC
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Activity Factory Set Up Change Expo
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All this activity is of great inter
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Table 2 European Facsimile Market S
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Color Facsimile Machines The Japane
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Productivity Race The facsimile out
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mm Dataoyest aconwanyof The Diin& B
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Figure 2 Geographic Distributi
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Table 3 Semiconductor Inventories R
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heavily used over their European co
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Dataqyest acomranyof ihcDSnlTBradsb
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DATAQUEST ANALYSIS Prior to the int
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NOKIA As shown in Figure 1, the Nok
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Net sales from this division for th
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^m DataQuest a company of TneDun& B
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Country West Germany France United
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• Road map directories in automob
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Table 1 EUROPEAN COM^aJNICATIONS EQ
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Application Telex Teletex Videotex
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Dataquest a company of The Dun & Br
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Research Depth of research includes
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Table 3 EUROPEAN INPUT/OUTPUT RATIO
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Dataoyest k^ i m a company of ^ W D
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for mag stripe technology were adop
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financial community today, without
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•'95% Figure 1 MANUFACTURING AUT(
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standards to serve the Italian mark
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In an alliance with EMUG, 30 French
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In spite of these bright spots, Dat
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m^m Dataquesl T^^Suj-iA^^'-fT'i^v f
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Figure 2 Revenue by Region Source:
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Strategic Changes Figure 4 Worldwid
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Terminals Figure 5 Pyramid of Produ
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The Nixdorf 8850 Figure 6 Communica
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The Nixdorf 8870 The 8870 product f
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Figure 7 PHOTO OF PWS-X Source: Nix
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Communication between Nixdorf produ
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The business orientation continues
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Nixdorf intends to exploit the stre
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s^^^s-^f ^^^li^^^^^ DataQuest acomp
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Type of Deflktoo DevicB Display Ter
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INSTALLED BASE OF DESKTOP TERMINALS
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Word Processors Shipments of standa
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:oo« 80% 60% - 40% 20% Figures Eur
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Dataquest expects that by 1991, the
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Appendix A DEFINITIONS OF KEYBOARD
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Appendix B CONNECTION TECHNOLOGIES
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Manufacturer APD Apple Apricot Bull
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of computer graphics and storage su
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