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Matsushita, Oki, Rockwell, Toshiba and Yamaha. Dataquest believes that SGS-Thomson
will enter the facsimile modem market soon.) In 1989, Dataquest estimates that the
OEM-volume price of the facsimile modem component will be reduced to the $40 to $50
range, as these component manufacturers attempt to grow their sales by competing for
more design wins.
Component Functionality Continues to Increase
Another trend in facsimile machines is the use of components that can be
programmed with software to perform a number of different operations. For example,
the Next Computer system will use a digital signal processor (DSP) component made by
Motorola that can be configured with software to be either a facsimile modem,
high-speed data modem, a speech synthesizer, or a CD-quality sound generator.
Dataquest believes that OEM-volume pricing for such a component will be less than $40
in 1989, and if a user needs all of these features in an item of equipment that already has
a microprocessor, the equivalent cost of the facsimile modem would be just a fraction
of the cost of the DSP component itself.
Facsimile comjxjnent opportunities may exist also for suppliers of
application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs). Dataquest believes that additional
opportunity exists for the standard logic, linear, and discrete components to be further
integrated into single-chip ASIC solutions, further reducing the manufacturing cost and
product footprint size.
Component Technology Continues to Advance
As users are becoming experienced with facsimile , new feature-related needs are
emerging that will affect the components required inside a machine. Dataquest believes
that there are potential markets for facsimile machines with capabilities for color,
store-and-forward memory, plain paper, error correction, local copies, gray-scale, and
broadcasting. These deluxe model features will become more practical and more
common as technology advancements continue to reduce their implementation costs to
the point where users can afford them.
For example, the reliability and resolution of the scanning operation could be
improved by changing from charged-couple device (CCD) to contact image sensor (CIS)
technology. However, Dataquest believes that the cost of the CIS technology will have
to be reduced before it becomes a widely accepted substitute for the CCD technology
currently used in most machines. Also, the current typical transmission time of
20 seconds per page for Group III machines using the Modified Huffman coding technique
could be reduced by 55 percent to about 9 seconds per page using the Modified Reed
(MMR) coding technique. Memory and microprocessor components are needed to run the
software programs used to implement these coding techniques, and Dataquest estimates
that the prices on these components will continue to decline in general at CAGRs in the
negative 5 to negative 15 percent range over the next four years.
ESAM Newsletter © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated March