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Table 2 Estimated Semiconductor Content of Group IK Facsimile Machines Semiconductor Components Integrated Circuits Memory SRAM EPROM Microcomponents Microprocessor Microcontroller Microperipheral Logic Standard Logic Gate Array Linear Discrete Optoelectronic CCD LEO Array Total Semiconductors Facsimile Equipment Factory Cost Retail Price Input/Output Ratio (factory) (retail) Economy Machines 1 (64K) 1 (256K) 1 0 1 (modem) 10 2 10 51 1 1 $124 $696 $2,510 17.9% 4.9% 1 1 1 2 2 10 2 10 57 1 1 $152 Midrange Machines (256K) (512K) (modem, watch) $1 ,146 $4 ,130 13 .2% 3. 7% Source: Dataquest March 1989 Facsimile machines based on the Group I or Group II standards are being retired from the installed base, and Dataquest estimates that they will no longer be in use after 1990. Group I and Group II machines use analog transmission techniques and require 3 to 6 minutes to transmit a page of information. Component Prices Continue to Decline The negative 11 percent CAGR reduction in facsimile machine prices is made possible in part by the reduction in numbers and prices of the components used to make the facsimile machine. For example, the facsimile modem component was a complete card in 1983, with an estimated OEM-volume price of approximately $300, and it was supplied only by Rockwell. In 1988, Dataquest estimates that this same circuit function is implemented as either one or two semiconductor components with an OEM-volume price in the $80 to $100 range, and that more than six component manufacturers have entered the market. (The facsimile modem suppliers include Hitachi, Hycom/Sharp, © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated March ESAM Newsletter
Matsushita, Oki, Rockwell, Toshiba and Yamaha. Dataquest believes that SGS-Thomson will enter the facsimile modem market soon.) In 1989, Dataquest estimates that the OEM-volume price of the facsimile modem component will be reduced to the $40 to $50 range, as these component manufacturers attempt to grow their sales by competing for more design wins. Component Functionality Continues to Increase Another trend in facsimile machines is the use of components that can be programmed with software to perform a number of different operations. For example, the Next Computer system will use a digital signal processor (DSP) component made by Motorola that can be configured with software to be either a facsimile modem, high-speed data modem, a speech synthesizer, or a CD-quality sound generator. Dataquest believes that OEM-volume pricing for such a component will be less than $40 in 1989, and if a user needs all of these features in an item of equipment that already has a microprocessor, the equivalent cost of the facsimile modem would be just a fraction of the cost of the DSP component itself. Facsimile comjxjnent opportunities may exist also for suppliers of application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs). Dataquest believes that additional opportunity exists for the standard logic, linear, and discrete components to be further integrated into single-chip ASIC solutions, further reducing the manufacturing cost and product footprint size. Component Technology Continues to Advance As users are becoming experienced with facsimile , new feature-related needs are emerging that will affect the components required inside a machine. Dataquest believes that there are potential markets for facsimile machines with capabilities for color, store-and-forward memory, plain paper, error correction, local copies, gray-scale, and broadcasting. These deluxe model features will become more practical and more common as technology advancements continue to reduce their implementation costs to the point where users can afford them. For example, the reliability and resolution of the scanning operation could be improved by changing from charged-couple device (CCD) to contact image sensor (CIS) technology. However, Dataquest believes that the cost of the CIS technology will have to be reduced before it becomes a widely accepted substitute for the CCD technology currently used in most machines. Also, the current typical transmission time of 20 seconds per page for Group III machines using the Modified Huffman coding technique could be reduced by 55 percent to about 9 seconds per page using the Modified Reed (MMR) coding technique. Memory and microprocessor components are needed to run the software programs used to implement these coding techniques, and Dataquest estimates that the prices on these components will continue to decline in general at CAGRs in the negative 5 to negative 15 percent range over the next four years. ESAM Newsletter © 1989 Dataquest Incorporated March
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European Semiconductor Application
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Dataquest a company of The Dun& Bra
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i EUROPEAN SEMICONDUCTOR PROCUREMEN
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Europe-based manufacturers were con
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Table 2 (Continued) Major Semicondu
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Page Printers Page printers are com
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PRINTER INDUSTRY DEFINITIONS APPEND
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TABLE 1 Benefits from Electronic Fu
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TABLE 3 Key Electronic Electricity
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DataQuest aaMTipanyof ThcDunSTBrads
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ESAM 0002383 Parcemoea 100% f Figur
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Which Computer? The computers purch
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Atari, which became the number one
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However, although there can be litt
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DATAQUEST CONCLUSIONS The assertion
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1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0004613
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COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT IN THE UNIT
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However, having overcome the techni
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0004614-1 Figure 1 Cell-Repeat Patt
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Registration Within the system, a n
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i^M$M:M DataQuest accmipanyof ihe D
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30 minutes to 600 minutes by 1995.
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"Think Global—Act Global" Jose Me
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"Telecommunications Technologies fo
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Mv^-y5t5;fsi ^ci Research DataQuest
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Figure 2 Difference between Semicon
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Dataquest anticipates an era of gre
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fflOH GROWTH RATE ATTRACTS MANY NEW
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* Average selling prices (ASPs) wil
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DATAQUEST CONCLUSIONS The rapid ini
Page 68 and 69: Experienced disk drive producers we
Page 70 and 71: The Japanese may well make further
Page 72 and 73: CORDLESS STANDARDS CT2 cordless tec
Page 74 and 75: CT2's strengths reside in its appli
Page 76 and 77: The Upside Scenario Figure 1 shows
Page 78 and 79: Table 2 Estimated Semiconductor Con
Page 80 and 81: DATAQUEST CONCLUSIONS CT2's main ap
Page 82 and 83: The present ISA, or AT bus, is not
Page 84 and 85: MCA MCA Delivery Time IBM has been
Page 86 and 87: EISA Consortium Dataquest believes
Page 88 and 89: Dataquest Conference Schedule 1989
Page 90 and 91: Background The UNIX penetration int
Page 92 and 93: Figure 3 European UNIX Computer Shi
Page 94 and 95: 1987 Total $22.4 Billion Figure 5 U
Page 96 and 97: DATAQUEST ANALYSIS The issue of UNI
Page 98 and 99: • Small department computers (SDC
Page 100 and 101: DataQuest Conference Schedule 1989
Page 102 and 103: 8086/88 286 386 Non-compatible NA =
Page 104 and 105: ANALYSIS OF SEMICONDUCTOR CONTENT T
Page 106 and 107: FUTURE TRENDS The advent of markets
Page 108 and 109: Benelux France Italy Scandinavia U.
Page 110 and 111: Italy The Italian market exhibited
Page 112 and 113: The Rest of Europe market is expect
Page 114 and 115: Intel and National Semiconductor ha
Page 116 and 117: Dataquest believes that continuing
Page 120 and 121: Production in Europe Dataquest esti
Page 122 and 123: Dataquest Conference Schedule 1989
Page 124 and 125: THE STANDARDS: MAC VERSUS MUSE Euro
Page 126 and 127: DATAQUEST ANALYSIS Evolution of MAC
Page 128 and 129: Year Table 1 Estimated IC Value by
Page 130 and 131: In addition to the $217 million mar
Page 132 and 133: TOO MANY HURDLES? The promise that
Page 134 and 135: Millions of Dollars 150 140 120 100
Page 136 and 137: Dataqyesl I aoHTiparTvof The Di in
Page 138 and 139: Figure 1 shows how the ISDN fits to
Page 140 and 141: ISDN IC FUNCTIONS Table 1 Bus Forma
Page 142 and 143: Figure 3 ISDN Semiconductor Demand
Page 144 and 145: PTT (P
Page 146 and 147: fe- Dataoyest OMporatnn Research Ne
Page 148 and 149: Air Conditioners Microwave Ovens Wa
Page 150 and 151: Bosch-Siemens has four plants in Ge
Page 152 and 153: DataQuest t acompAiwcf The E^inK^sd
Page 154 and 155: What, I hear you ask, gives me the
Page 156 and 157: The 1980s have brought us to Phase
Page 158 and 159: What I would like to do now is to e
Page 160 and 161: (Slide 22) This necessary adjustmen
Page 162 and 163: procurement, to eventual export of
Page 164 and 165: (Slide 1) (Slide 2) 1992: HAS EUROP
Page 166 and 167: (Slide 5) (Slide 6) 1992 IMPACT •
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(Slide 9) (Slide 10) EUROPEAN SEMIC
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(Slide 13) (Slide 14) EUROPEAN COMP
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(Slide 17) EUROPEAN END-USE VENDOR
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(Slide 21) (Slide 22) Europe Other
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(Slide 25) (Slide 26) rtnu stack ST
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(Slide 29) (Slide 30) SUPPLIER/CUST
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(Slide 33) (Slide 34) EUROPEAN ELEC
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(Slide 37) THE 1992 CHALLENGE HIGH
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Millions of Units 12- 10- 8- 6- 4-
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Most of the Japanese firms are quit
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Western Europe North America Rest o
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Local Content In June 1987, the EEC
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Activity Factory Set Up Change Expo
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All this activity is of great inter
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Table 2 European Facsimile Market S
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Color Facsimile Machines The Japane
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Productivity Race The facsimile out
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mm Dataoyest aconwanyof The Diin& B
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Figure 2 Geographic Distributi
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Table 3 Semiconductor Inventories R
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heavily used over their European co
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Dataqyest acomranyof ihcDSnlTBradsb
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DATAQUEST ANALYSIS Prior to the int
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NOKIA As shown in Figure 1, the Nok
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Net sales from this division for th
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^m DataQuest a company of TneDun& B
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Country West Germany France United
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• Road map directories in automob
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Table 1 EUROPEAN COM^aJNICATIONS EQ
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Application Telex Teletex Videotex
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Dataquest a company of The Dun & Br
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Research Depth of research includes
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Table 3 EUROPEAN INPUT/OUTPUT RATIO
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Dataoyest k^ i m a company of ^ W D
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for mag stripe technology were adop
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financial community today, without
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•'95% Figure 1 MANUFACTURING AUT(
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standards to serve the Italian mark
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In an alliance with EMUG, 30 French
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In spite of these bright spots, Dat
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m^m Dataquesl T^^Suj-iA^^'-fT'i^v f
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Figure 2 Revenue by Region Source:
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Strategic Changes Figure 4 Worldwid
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Terminals Figure 5 Pyramid of Produ
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The Nixdorf 8850 Figure 6 Communica
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The Nixdorf 8870 The 8870 product f
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Figure 7 PHOTO OF PWS-X Source: Nix
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Communication between Nixdorf produ
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The business orientation continues
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Nixdorf intends to exploit the stre
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s^^^s-^f ^^^li^^^^^ DataQuest acomp
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Type of Deflktoo DevicB Display Ter
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INSTALLED BASE OF DESKTOP TERMINALS
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Word Processors Shipments of standa
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:oo« 80% 60% - 40% 20% Figures Eur
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Dataquest expects that by 1991, the
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Appendix A DEFINITIONS OF KEYBOARD
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Appendix B CONNECTION TECHNOLOGIES
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Manufacturer APD Apple Apricot Bull
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of computer graphics and storage su
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