The history of the popes, from the close of the middle ages : drawn ...

36 HISTORY OF THE POPES.
to keep on good terms with the influential Gonzaga than to
gain over Carafa, without any advantage to themselves, and
by such disgraceful measures.^ Moreover, according to
Duke Cosimo's opinion, Este, not Carafa, was the person
about whom they ought to trouble themselves. Should they
succeed in inducing the former to give up his hopes of the
tiara, then affairs would come right of themselves ; on the
other hand, if they could not succeed in doing this, then they
were only pouring water into a sieve.
In reality, however, whether he wished it or not, Carafa
was obliged to keep in with Spain, because it was only from
Philip that he could expect an Italian principality, and not
from the French, who had no power in Italy ; it was also
Very doubtful if Carafa 's whole party would join him in
throwing themselves into the hands of the French.^
The decision of Philip II. regarding the possession of Paliano
had shown that he was of the same opinion as Sforza and
the Duke of Florence with regard to the importance of Carafa,
and Vargas' report from Rome did not succeed in making him
change his mind. To the oft-repeated request of the am-
bassador that Philip would authorize him to make promises
to Carafa, he answered nothing further on October 26th*
than to say that the former pension of 12,000 scudi^ granted
to Carafa should be continued.
Sevferal days before, on October 20th, Phihp had finally
given his decision with regard to the candidature of Gonzaga
for the Papacy.® It was to the effect that the election of
the Cardinal of Mantua was at all costs to be prevented.
The ambassador, however, was to let no one know this, though,
^Letter of November 7, 1559, in Petrucelli, 147.
^ Cosimo I. to Concini on November 4, 1559, in Petrucelli,
145 seq. Cf. SusTA, Pius IV., 143.
^ MuLLER, 161.
'^ Ibid., 168.
5 Cf. Vol. XIV. of this work, p. 213.
* MuLLER, 136. According to Vargas, Philip's dispatch was
on October 23 (Dollinger, Beitrage, I., 296) ; the 23rd was the
day of the departure of the courier (Muller, 206).
^