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The history of the popes, from the close of the middle ages : drawn ...

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CANDIDATURE OF MEDICI. 57<br />

was less guarded in his remarks.^ Alessandro Farnese had<br />

long ago been pledged- by express promises to work for<br />

Medici ; it was only to protect himself against Gonzaga that<br />

for a time he kept his wishes in abeyance and followed Carafa's<br />

lead. Sforza stood firmly on <strong>the</strong> side <strong>of</strong> Medici ; as Guise<br />

and <strong>the</strong> French now also declared <strong>the</strong>mselves for him, it was<br />

only necessary that Carlo and Alfonso Carafa should join his<br />

party to turn <strong>the</strong> scales.^<br />

With <strong>the</strong> assent <strong>of</strong> Guise <strong>the</strong> result <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> election was,<br />

in <strong>the</strong> opinion <strong>of</strong> Vitelli, decided in Medici's favour.* During<br />

<strong>the</strong> last few days Carlo Carafa had leaned strongly to his side,<br />

while Vargas and Farnese kept putting him forward as well.^<br />

It was <strong>of</strong> decisive importance that Cosimo de' Medici now<br />

judged that <strong>the</strong> moment had arrived for taking definite steps<br />

in favour <strong>of</strong> his candidate. By means <strong>of</strong> Vitelli <strong>the</strong> Florentine<br />

agents caused letters to be shown to Cardinal Carlo Carafa<br />

in which Cosimo made great promises to <strong>the</strong> nephews <strong>of</strong><br />

Paul IV. ^ In <strong>the</strong>se he said that he would endeavour to<br />

obtain for Carafa compensation <strong>from</strong> Philip II. for Paliano ;<br />

he also promised that he would remain neutral in <strong>the</strong> struggle<br />

going on between <strong>the</strong> Marquis Antonio Carafa and <strong>the</strong> Count<br />

<strong>of</strong> Bagno concerning MontebeUo, although he had hi<strong>the</strong>rto<br />

been against Antonio. On <strong>the</strong> strength <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se promises<br />

Carlo Carafa went over to <strong>the</strong> side <strong>of</strong> Medici.''<br />

^Vargas to Philip on October iS and December 21, 1559, ibid.,<br />

279. 319-<br />

^ SusTA, Pius IV., 149, n. I.<br />

^Vargas writes on December 21, concerning Medici: " Este<br />

creo que a esta hora tiene mas derecho, si Napoles se ablanda, y<br />

Ferrara viene en el de buen pie, que Carafa no esta ya en escluirlo,<br />

como antes ; " in Dollinger, I., 319.<br />

* Panvinius, 581.<br />

5 lUd.<br />

« SusTA, Pius IV., 149.<br />

' According to Riess, 392, Cosimo promised Carafa 300,000 scudi<br />

in <strong>the</strong> event <strong>of</strong> Philip refusing him a territorial indemnification<br />

for Paliano. An "obviously (?) well-informed contemporary"<br />

according to Riess, 407, whose anonymous report is dated <strong>from</strong>

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