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<strong>GHY</strong> <strong>4530</strong>/<strong>5530</strong> - <strong>Andean</strong> <strong>Mountain</strong> <strong>Geography</strong> – Summer Session II, 2013<br />
Faculty: Dr. Baker Perry (with Dr. Anton Seimon)<br />
Office: 363 Rankin Science West<br />
Phone: (828) 262-7058<br />
Email: perrylb@appstate.edu<br />
Course Description: The course will begin with discussion of the significance of mountains in geographical inquiry,<br />
continue with an overview of the important physical processes (i.e. mountain forming processes, mountain<br />
meteorology, vegetation) and also include study of the human dimensions of mountain environments (i.e.<br />
mountain peoples and cultures, sustainable development), paying particular attention to the Andes <strong>Mountain</strong>s and<br />
the country of Peru.<br />
Objectives: Upon completion of this course, students should have a better understanding of <strong>Andean</strong> mountain<br />
environments and peoples and be able to think critically about contemporary mountain issues. Students will<br />
demonstrate an understanding of the role of global climate change in changing the physical and human geography<br />
of mountain regions.<br />
Grading: Field Journal 50%<br />
Discussion 20%<br />
Response Paper 15%<br />
Exam 15%<br />
Journal: A detailed field journal comprises 50 percent of your overall grade for this course. You are expected to<br />
keep daily entries that 1) summarize your activities, hypotheses, data collection, and field methods, 2) process and<br />
reflect upon discussions, conversations, and/or observations, 3) draw connections between your<br />
experiences/observations and the readings and discussions. The journal is due on July 29. Please note: This is not a<br />
personal journal.<br />
Discussion: Facilitating a discussion on one of the readings is 20 percent of your final grade in this course. Outside<br />
research to provide additional information on the topic is expected. The student discussant should provide a<br />
general overview of the topic, introduce the authors of the article, briefly summarize the major findings and<br />
conclusions, and come up with several questions to guide group discussion.<br />
Response Paper: A response paper will account for 15 percent of your final grade. Papers should be between three<br />
and five pages in length and respond to one of the issues discussed in the readings, seminars, or field visits.<br />
Students should meet with the instructor to choose and appropriate topic. The response paper is due on July 29.<br />
Exam: The exam will be administered at the conclusion of the trip and is worth 15 percent of your grade.<br />
Graduate Students (<strong>GHY</strong> <strong>5530</strong>-145): In addition to all assignments described above, graduate students enrolled in<br />
<strong>GHY</strong> <strong>5530</strong> will be expected to do a significant amount of additional work and all assignments will be graded at a<br />
higher level of expectations. Graduate students will lead three discussions of articles assigned and will provide a<br />
typed summary of each presentation to hand out to the class. Each of those summaries should incorporate at<br />
least five additional sources from scientific journals and must provide full bibliographic listings. Graduate students<br />
will also write a term paper upon return from the field portion of the course. The presentations, journal, exam, and<br />
term paper will each account for a quarter of your final grade. Papers should be between twelve and fifteen pages<br />
in length and focus on a topic agreed upon with the professor. A handout will provide additional details. The term<br />
paper and journal are due on July 29.<br />
Selected Reading List for <strong>Andean</strong> <strong>Mountain</strong> <strong>Geography</strong> – <strong>GHY</strong> <strong>4530</strong>/<strong>5530</strong><br />
Background Readings<br />
Burger, R.L., and L.C. Salazar. 2004. Machu Picchu: Unveiling the Mystery of the Incas. New Haven, CT: Yale<br />
University Press.<br />
Halloy, S.R.P., A. Seimon, K. Yager and A. Tupayachi. 2005. Multi-dimensional (climatic,<br />
biodiversity, socioeconomic, and agricultural) context of changes in land use in the Vilcanota watershed, Peru.
In Land Use Changes and <strong>Mountain</strong> Biodiversity. E.M. Spehn, M. Liberman and C. Körner (eds.), CRC Press,<br />
Boca Raton.<br />
Ives, J.D. B. Messerli, and E. Spiess. 1997. <strong>Mountain</strong>s of the World—a global priority. In <strong>Mountain</strong>s of the World: A<br />
Global Priority, eds. Bruno Messerli and Jack D. Ives, 1-15. New York, NY: Parthenon.<br />
Schroeder, K., C. Wood, S. Galiardi, and J. Koehn. 2009. First, do no harm: Ideas for mitigating negative community<br />
impacts of short-term study abroad. Journal of <strong>Geography</strong> 108: 141-147.<br />
Starn, O., C.I. Degregori, and R. Kirk. 2005 (2 nd Edition). The Peru Reader: History, Culture, Politics. Durham, NC:<br />
Duke University Press.<br />
Discussion Articles (In Chronological Order)<br />
Lauer, W. 1993. Human development and environment in the Andes: a geoecological overview. <strong>Mountain</strong><br />
Research and Development 13:157-166.<br />
Chepstow-Lusty, A.J., M.R. Frogley, B.S. Bauer, M.J. Leng, K.P. Boessenkool, C. Carcaillet, A.A. Ali, and A. Gioda.<br />
2009. Putting the rise of the Inca Empire within a climatic and land management context. Climates of the Past<br />
5: 375-388.<br />
Harden, C. 2006. Human impacts on headwater fluvial systems in the northern and central Andes. Geomorphology<br />
79: 249–263.<br />
Wright, K.R., G.D. Witt, A.V. Zegarra. 1997. Hydrogeology and paleohydrology of ancient Machu Picchu. Ground<br />
Water 35: 660-666.<br />
Larson, L.R., N.C. Poudyat. 2012. Developing sustainable tourism through adaptive resource management: a case<br />
study of Machu Picchu, Peru. Journal of Sustainable Tourism 20: 917-938.<br />
Young, K.R., and J.K. Lipton. 2006. Adaptive governance and climate change in the tropical highlands of western<br />
South America. Climatic Change 78: 63-102.<br />
Hole, D.G., K.R. Young, A. Seimon, C. Gomez, D. Hoffmann, K. Schutze, S. Sanchez, D. Muchoney, H.R. Grau, E.<br />
Ramirez. 2010. Adaptive management for biodiversity conservation under climate change – a tropical <strong>Andean</strong><br />
perspective. In, Herzog, S.K., R. Martínez, P.M. Jørgensen & H. Tiessen (Eds.). Climate change effects on the<br />
biodiversity of the tropical Andes: an assessment of the status of scientific knowledge. Inter-American Institute<br />
of Global Change Research (IAI) and Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE), São José<br />
dos Campos and Paris.<br />
Seimon, A., T.A. Seimon (co-lead authors), P. Daszak, S. Halloy, P. Sowell, B. Konecky, L.M. Schloegel, C.A. Aguilar, J.<br />
Simmons, and A. Hyatt. 2007. Upward range extension of <strong>Andean</strong> anurans to extreme elevations in response<br />
to tropical deglaciation. Global Change Biology 13:288-299.<br />
Hardy, D., M.W. Williams, and C. Escobar. 2001. Near-surface faceted crystals, avalanches, and climate in highelevation,<br />
tropical mountains of Bolivia. Cold Regions Science and Technology 33: 291-302.<br />
Bush, M.B., J.A. Hanselman, and W.D. Gosling. 2010. Nonlinear climate change and <strong>Andean</strong> feedbacks: an<br />
imminent turning point? Global Change Biology 16: 3223-3232.<br />
<strong>State</strong>ment of Student Engagement with Courses<br />
In its mission statement, <strong>Appalachian</strong> <strong>State</strong> University aims at “providing undergraduate students a rigorous liberal<br />
education that emphasizes transferable skills and preparation for professional careers” as well as “maintaining a<br />
faculty whose members serve as excellent teachers and scholarly mentors for their students.” Such rigor means<br />
that the foremost activity of <strong>Appalachian</strong> students is an intense engagement with their courses. In practical terms,<br />
students should expect to spend two to three hours of studying for every hour of class time. For this study abroad<br />
course, students should expect to spend the bulk of that time, or approximately 50 to 75 hours, completing the<br />
readings and other assignments prior to departure. Approximately 25-38 hours of journaling, reading, and study<br />
will be expected during the time abroad, and an additional 25-38 hours of research and writing will be expected in<br />
order to complete the final paper for the course upon return.<br />
2
<strong>GHY</strong> <strong>4530</strong>/<strong>5530</strong> (<strong>Andean</strong> <strong>Mountain</strong> <strong>Geography</strong>)<br />
Author and Year Title Date Responsible<br />
Lauer 1993 Human development and environment in the Andes: a geoecological overview 8-Jul<br />
Chepstow-Lusty et<br />
al. 2009<br />
Harden 2006<br />
Putting the rise of the Inca Empire within a climatic and land management<br />
context<br />
Human impacts on headwater fluvial systems in the northern and central<br />
Andes<br />
Wright et al. 1997 Hydrogeology and paleohydrology of ancient Machu Picchu 12-Jul<br />
Larson & Poudyat Developing sustainable tourism through adapative resource management: a<br />
2012<br />
case study from Machu Picchu, Peru<br />
Adaptive governance and climate change in the tropical highlands of western<br />
Young & Lipton 2006<br />
South America<br />
Hole et al. 2010<br />
Adaptive management for biodiversity conservation under climate change -- a<br />
tropical <strong>Andean</strong> perspective<br />
Seimon et al. 2007<br />
Upward range extension of <strong>Andean</strong> anurans to extreme elevations in response<br />
to tropical deglaciation<br />
Hardy et al. 2001<br />
Near-surface faceted crystals, avalanches, and climate in high-elevation,<br />
tropical mountains of Bolivia<br />
8-Jul<br />
9-Jul<br />
12-Jul<br />
13-Jul<br />
13-Jul<br />
17-Jul<br />
18-Jul<br />
Bush et al. 2010 Nonlinear climate change and <strong>Andean</strong> feedbacks: an imminent turning point? 19-Jul
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First, Do No Harm: Ideas for Mitigating Negative Community Impacts of Short-<br />
Term Study Abroad<br />
Kathleen Schroeder a ; Cynthia Wood b ; Shari Galiardi c ; Jenny Koehn c<br />
a Department of <strong>Geography</strong> and Planning, <strong>Appalachian</strong> <strong>State</strong> University, Boone, North Carolina, USA b<br />
Sustainable development, <strong>Appalachian</strong> <strong>State</strong> University, Boone, North Carolina, USA c <strong>Appalachian</strong> <strong>State</strong><br />
University, Boone, North Carolina, USA<br />
Online Publication Date: 01 May 2009<br />
To cite this Article Schroeder, Kathleen, Wood, Cynthia, Galiardi, Shari and Koehn, Jenny(2009)'First, Do No Harm: Ideas for<br />
Mitigating Negative Community Impacts of Short-Term Study Abroad',Journal of <strong>Geography</strong>,108:3,141 — 147<br />
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First, Do No Harm: Ideas for Mitigating Negative Community Impacts of<br />
Short-Term Study Abroad<br />
Kathleen Schroeder, Cynthia Wood, Shari Galiardi, and Jenny Koehn<br />
ABSTRACT<br />
This article presents the results from a<br />
research project on the host community<br />
impact of college students participating<br />
in university-sponsored international<br />
experiences. It finds that little reliable<br />
data is available on the impact that<br />
our students have on host communities.<br />
The article concludes that nondamaging<br />
international experiences require a substantial<br />
amount of planning, experienced<br />
group facilitation, and solid debriefing<br />
of students and community members.<br />
We recommend that geographers with<br />
a critical perspective and extensive<br />
foreign expertise should help guide<br />
the development of these experiences<br />
and urge their universities to screen<br />
study abroad for unintended negative<br />
outcomes on local communities.<br />
Key Words: short-term study abroad,<br />
impact on host communities<br />
Kathleen Schroeder is an associate professor at<br />
<strong>Appalachian</strong> <strong>State</strong> University, Boone, North<br />
Carolina, USA, in the Department of <strong>Geography</strong><br />
and Planning.<br />
Cynthia Wood is an associate professor at<br />
<strong>Appalachian</strong> <strong>State</strong> University, Boone, North<br />
Carolina, USA, in sustainable development.<br />
Shari Galiardi is the Director of Service-<br />
Learning at <strong>Appalachian</strong> <strong>State</strong> University,<br />
Boone, North Carolina, USA.<br />
Jenny Koehn is the Associate Director<br />
of Student Programs at <strong>Appalachian</strong> <strong>State</strong><br />
University, Boone, North Carolina, USA.<br />
INTRODUCTION<br />
In the United <strong>State</strong>s, internationalization is an important component of the<br />
mission statements of many colleges and universities, and the numbers reflect<br />
this commitment as student participation in study abroad has grown 150 percent<br />
over the past decade (Institute of International Education 2007). In the President’s<br />
Column of the Association of American Geographers (AAG) newsletter, Victoria<br />
Lawson (2005) comments on this trend and the contributions that geographers<br />
are well positioned to make to an internationalized research and teaching agenda<br />
across campuses.<br />
With an increased emphasis on internationalization, U.S. institutions are<br />
looking to expand their offerings beyond the typical model where language<br />
students spend a semester in a European country. Students across campuses<br />
are encouraged to go abroad in a growing variety of models that can range from<br />
one-week alternative spring break service projects to year-long exchanges. Demand<br />
for study-abroad opportunities is increasing and the Lincoln Commission<br />
recently proposed sending one million Americans abroad by 2016 (Commission<br />
on the Abraham Lincoln Study Abroad Fellowship Program 2005).<br />
Where are all these students going? Presently, the United Kingdom remains<br />
the number-one-ranked destination for U.S. students, but China is now<br />
a top-ten destination as are Mexico and Costa Rica. Countries on the list of<br />
the top-twenty destinations include South Africa, Brazil, and Ecuador (Institute<br />
of International Education 2007). International offerings at a typical mid-sized<br />
public institution in the United <strong>State</strong>s include programs to locations as diverse as<br />
Ecuador, India, New Zealand, and Ghana. The Lincoln Commission recommends<br />
that these nontraditional locations become an increasing percentage of studyabroad<br />
destinations. Following the recommendations of the Lincoln Commission,<br />
the Simon Act currently awaiting approval in Congress mandates “diversifying<br />
locations of study abroad, particularly in developing countries” (NAFSA<br />
2008).<br />
What has been virtually ignored as short-term study abroad has grown on<br />
college campuses is a critical examination of the impact of these programs on the<br />
communities that students visit. 1 The most recent edition of the Forum on Education<br />
Abroad’s Standards of Good Practice for Education Abroad (2008, 19), for example,<br />
makes no recommendations on mitigating the effects of study abroad on local communities,<br />
suggesting only that the organization sending students “respect the cultures<br />
and values of the countries in which it operates.” The implications of a group<br />
going to London are significantly different than going to a remote village in China,<br />
but increasingly universities are offering and students are choosing programs that<br />
take them far off the beaten track, with unexamined and unintended consequences<br />
for host communities. Given the drive to increase the number of students going<br />
abroad, it is urgent that these consequences be considered by both institutions<br />
and faculty in the design and implementation of short-term study-abroad<br />
programs. 2<br />
In this article, we draw attention to the numerous and often unforeseen ways<br />
that students might impact local communities. We have developed this inquiry<br />
through an examination of the relevant bodies of literature and from ongoing<br />
research and discussions with a wide variety of stakeholders involved in shortterm<br />
study abroad on and off our campus. We conclude with six recommendations<br />
that we encourage faculty to take to their home institutions.<br />
Journal of <strong>Geography</strong> 108: 141–147<br />
C○2009 National Council for Geographic Education 141
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Schroeder et al.<br />
WHAT ARE THE IMPACTS ON LOCAL COMMUNITIES?<br />
Considering how difficult it is to collect information on<br />
the topic, it should not be surprising that we have virtually<br />
no idea of how students’ impact places—particularly the<br />
small, rural, research sites that many geographers are<br />
likely to take our students. David Zurick (1992) and other<br />
geographers have examined sustainable tourism, but not<br />
with a specific eye towards the impact that our own<br />
students are having.<br />
Many of the potential negative impacts of foreign visitors<br />
are highlighted by the literature on tourism, especially<br />
its economic, social, and cultural effects (Archer, Cooper,<br />
and Ruhanen 2005; McLaren 2006). Shaw and Williams<br />
(2002) and Lew, Hall, and A. Williams (2004) provide<br />
comprehensive examinations of tourism from a geographic<br />
perspective. While we believe that there are significant differences<br />
between study abroad and tourism, in considering<br />
the potential negative impacts on host communities there<br />
are many similarities. Like tourism, study abroad “creates<br />
impacts and consequences; we cannot prevent these, but<br />
need to plan and manage to minimize the negative impacts<br />
and emphasize the positive impacts” (Archer, Cooper, and<br />
Ruhanen 2005, 79). And as with tourism, these impacts<br />
occur because study abroad “brings about an intermingling<br />
of people from diverse social and cultural backgrounds,<br />
and also a considerable spatial redistribution of spending<br />
power, which has a significant impact on the economy of<br />
the destination” (Archer, Cooper, and Ruhanen 2005, 79).<br />
It is possible that even more than most tourism, study<br />
abroad is “by its very nature. . . attracted to unique and<br />
fragile environments and societies and. . . in some cases the<br />
economic benefits [to host communities] may be offset by<br />
adverse and previously unmeasured environmental and<br />
social consequences” (Archer, Cooper, and Ruhanen 2005,<br />
79).<br />
The tourism literature suggests that short-term studyabroad<br />
programs may do damage to their host communities,<br />
and points to an array of questions that we should ask<br />
in order to evaluate the potential for such negative impacts,<br />
including the following:<br />
Where does the food/water/housing for our students<br />
come from? Do we impose any hardship on<br />
local people, such as water shortages? What about<br />
garbage disposal and pollution? Is land being used<br />
for visitors rather than local needs?<br />
Does the economic impact of study abroad promote<br />
economic inequality in the community? Do<br />
foreigners or local elites own or manage the<br />
hotels that students occupy during their visit? If<br />
“home stays” are part of the study abroad, do<br />
students live in middle-class homes, so that poorer<br />
people do not receive any economic benefit and<br />
income inequality is worsened? Are guides and<br />
drivers outsiders or wealthier members of the<br />
community? Do local prices go up as a result of the<br />
student visit? The giving of gifts can contribute to<br />
142<br />
similar inequalities, however well-intentioned—<br />
can nonmaterial gifts be given instead, or gifts to<br />
the community as a whole?<br />
Do student visits contribute to economies of dependency<br />
on outsiders, orienting those economies<br />
to pleasing or providing pleasure for wealthy<br />
foreigners rather than to local needs?<br />
Is there a “season” for foreign visitors to come to<br />
the area, such that student visits contribute to a<br />
“boom and bust” cycle in the local economy? Is<br />
there any way to mitigate this effect?<br />
Do students’ patterns of consumption (both during<br />
and before the visit) contribute to problems in<br />
the community? The “demonstration effect” of<br />
students bringing high-end travel gear, lots of<br />
clothes, spending money easily on restaurants, giving<br />
gifts, etc. may create resentment, the perception<br />
of American students as wealthy consumers with<br />
no responsibilities at home (McLaren 2006), or the<br />
desire in local people (especially youth) to leave<br />
the community so that they can make money to<br />
buy similar goods and services. Even traveling on<br />
an airplane or simply traveling away from home<br />
can create these problems among people who do<br />
not have that option.<br />
Are local people excluded from any of the areas<br />
where students are encouraged or allowed to go?<br />
Are students well-behaved and respectful in terms<br />
of the local culture? Do they dress inappropriately,<br />
or otherwise commit cultural offenses that will<br />
anger, distress, or shock people in the local community?<br />
Do students see culture, indigeneity, and<br />
the “authenticity” of local people as commodities<br />
to be consumed? What other cultural impacts<br />
result from student visits? Cultural differences in<br />
themselves are likely sources of confusion and<br />
conflict if unanticipated.<br />
Do students smoke, drink, or do drugs during their<br />
visit? The effect of these behaviors can range from<br />
being poor role models for local youth to bringing<br />
new addictions to the community.<br />
Are other expressions of privilege demonstrated<br />
by students during their visit, such as doing<br />
things “our” way, eating “our” food, playing<br />
“our” music, requiring things to be done on “our”<br />
schedule?<br />
How well are students prepared to understand<br />
the community they are visiting? Do they bring<br />
damaging stereotypes with them that can be countered<br />
before, during, and after the program? These<br />
stereotypes might be as narrow as “Bolivians,” but<br />
for most students are more likely to be broader,<br />
such as “poor people,” “indigenous people,” or<br />
“people in developing countries,” as well as racist
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and exoticizing images of people in out-of-the-way<br />
places.<br />
Are there human rights issues already present that<br />
are exacerbated by the presence of foreign visitors?<br />
Does anything about the students’ presence or<br />
activities reinforce a negative self-image for local<br />
people, for example that Americans are smarter,<br />
more competent, more attractive? Is there any way<br />
their presence could promote a positive self-image<br />
instead?<br />
There are many other questions that can and should be<br />
asked when considering the effects of short-term study<br />
abroad on local communities. Many of these are placespecific<br />
and evaluation requires local knowledge. Consulting<br />
local people on these questions may be helpful, but is<br />
unlikely to give a complete picture. The economic stake of<br />
having visitors return may be very high, so there is incentive<br />
to give positive reviews of the local experience of students<br />
and the impacts of their presence. Politeness compels most<br />
people to respond favorably when asked if student visits<br />
have had a positive effect on the community. And of course,<br />
most people are not trained to detect or analyze the effect<br />
of visitors on local communities. Direct observation can<br />
also be helpful, but must be considered from a critical<br />
perspective as well. Local people may be observed to smile<br />
and appear happy when they are genuinely happy, but also<br />
when they have little choice about it, as “being happy” is<br />
required for visitors to spend money, give gifts, or come<br />
back.<br />
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS<br />
These issues prompted the development of a research<br />
team (composed of faculty members, student development<br />
staff, and a student) at <strong>Appalachian</strong> <strong>State</strong> University to<br />
look at the impact of our students on the places that they<br />
visited. In the course of our research, we have examined<br />
one-week alternative spring break service projects, as well<br />
as other short-term study-abroad programs, especially nontraditional<br />
ones, through a review of data on program<br />
destination and continuity, surveys of students, interviews<br />
with host community partners, and focus groups with<br />
faculty and staff leading study-abroad programs.<br />
The one-week international alternative spring break<br />
service study-abroad programs offer one hour of academic<br />
credit, but are not faculty-led. With the guidance of the<br />
campus-based volunteer and service-learning program,<br />
students develop the programs, recruit other students to<br />
participate and find a faculty partner to accompany the<br />
group. Unlike many alternative spring break programs<br />
across the country, there is academic coursework and<br />
substantial preparation and reflection required of students<br />
before and during the program abroad. From 2006 to 2008<br />
ten alternative spring break programs were implemented<br />
in the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Panama, Jamaica,<br />
and Belize. A total of 125 students participated over that<br />
Ideas for Mitigating Negative Community Impacts of Short-Term Study Abroad<br />
time period; some have returned for more than one year. Of<br />
these 125, twenty have subsequently enrolled in a semesterlong<br />
international program. This enrollment is significantly<br />
higher than for the population of students at large and may<br />
support the argument that international alternative spring<br />
breaks and other short-term study-abroad programs can<br />
serve as gateways to longer study-abroad experiences.<br />
In addition to alternative spring breaks, there are a significant<br />
number of other short-term study-abroad programs<br />
at our university, which are designed and implemented by<br />
faculty and professional staff. These programs all carry academic<br />
credit, with coursework completed before, during,<br />
and after the program abroad. The “abroad” components<br />
of such programs occur at various times depending on<br />
the program, including winter and spring break, but most<br />
commonly are completed during the summer.<br />
The research team collected data from four sources<br />
hoping to catch a glimpse of how students impact the<br />
communities that they visited:<br />
1. In 2007 we conducted semistructured interviews<br />
with the faculty and professional staff partners who<br />
participated on alternative spring break programs.<br />
2. That same year we conducted semistructured interviews<br />
with host agency personnel. These interviews<br />
were conducted by the faculty and staff partners on<br />
each program.<br />
3. We also analyzed data from a required student<br />
survey from the international alternative spring<br />
breaks.<br />
4. In 2008 we conducted a series of focus groups with<br />
a wider range of faculty and professional staff who<br />
have led study-abroad courses (not all of which<br />
included a service-learning component).<br />
In these group discussions, we hoped to see if participants<br />
were concerned about the impacts that their students<br />
are having on host communities and, if so, what they<br />
did to mitigate potential damage. In this research we<br />
were especially concerned about issues of equity and,<br />
in particular, who benefited locally from the students’<br />
presence in the community.<br />
RESULTS<br />
Faculty and Professional Staff Interviews<br />
The faculty and professional staff who served as partners<br />
for the alternative spring break programs in 2007 included<br />
three people who had considerable international experience<br />
and one who had no previous international travel experience.<br />
One faculty member was a geography professor. Two<br />
of the four participants expressed some skepticism about<br />
the positive impact on communities that they expected from<br />
the program before they departed.<br />
After they returned, all four faculty and professional<br />
staff partners were interviewed. All reported favorable<br />
143
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Schroeder et al.<br />
impressions of the student impact on the communities they<br />
served. When asked why they thought that students were<br />
well received in their host communities, their responses<br />
varied. One explained that they had worked closely with a<br />
successful U.S. Peace Corps volunteer that was living in the<br />
host community as they were setting up their program.<br />
The volunteer had done an excellent job of preparing<br />
both the students and the host community for the visit.<br />
Others commented that the agencies that they were volunteering<br />
with played similar roles in preparing both<br />
students and the communities for the exchanges. One<br />
faculty member commented that the host community was<br />
so inundated with volunteers that he doubted that his<br />
particular group could have any negative impact.<br />
With regard to issues of how equitably the benefits of the<br />
exchange were shared within the communities, two faculty<br />
and professional staff partners noticed significant effort by<br />
the host agency to make sure that the tangible benefits of the<br />
students’ presence were shared within the community. One<br />
commented about the particular effort of the family that<br />
was hosting them to make sure that the students stopped<br />
by the stores that were owned and run by other families.<br />
However, another noticed that the project that they were<br />
working with seemed to be exacerbating inequality.<br />
Host Agency Interviews<br />
In 2007 faculty and professional staff partners on the<br />
alternative spring break programs were asked to interview<br />
representatives of their host agency to try to determine<br />
the possible negative impacts that student groups could<br />
have, phrased in terms of how the programs might be improved.<br />
These interviews were shared with members of the<br />
research team when the groups returned to campus. In all<br />
cases, the representatives of the host agencies said that<br />
student groups provided needed assistance and, in some<br />
cases, a significant revenue stream for their projects. This<br />
result was expected and not terribly helpful. Several of<br />
the faculty and professional staff partners pushed their<br />
interview subjects a bit more by asking about the negative<br />
impacts of other student groups in the past. One host agency<br />
representative complained about the late night drinking<br />
activities of other student groups.<br />
Student Participant Surveys<br />
Completion of a post-experience survey is a requirement<br />
for alternative spring break participants. The research<br />
group collected fifty-four completed surveys from the<br />
2007 international alternative spring break participants.<br />
Students were asked if they believed that their group had<br />
an impact in the community in which they worked. All<br />
students responded either “strongly agree” or “agree” on a<br />
five-point Likert scale. When prompted to provide details<br />
of the intangible impacts of their programs (impacts other<br />
than money and physical labor), some students felt that<br />
they reduced local people’s negative stereotypes about<br />
Americans and that they helped local people feel more<br />
144<br />
pride in their communities. Student surveys were not<br />
particularly good instruments for prompting reflection on<br />
the possible negative impact that their presence might cause<br />
(for example, demonstration effects and exacerbation of existing<br />
inequality). However, one professional staff partner<br />
commented that serious discussion of these concerns was<br />
shared during time set aside for reflection while they were<br />
in the host community.<br />
Focus Groups with Faculty and Staff<br />
In order to expand our research beyond the experiences<br />
of alternative spring break programs, four one-time focus<br />
groups were completed in 2008 with faculty and staff<br />
who had led or accompanied short-term study-abroad<br />
programs through the university’s Office of International<br />
Education and Development in the previous five years. All<br />
programs are organized by the group’s facilitator—vendors<br />
are not used on our campus. Of the forty-one faculty and<br />
staff invited to participate, twenty-six participated. Staff<br />
participants were student development professionals from<br />
a variety of offices across campus and faculty were from numerous<br />
departments, with representatives from all colleges<br />
at the university. The research team intentionally sought<br />
out participants who had led programs to “vulnerable”<br />
places: all who had led or facilitated programs in Latin<br />
America, Africa, and Asia were asked to participate, as well<br />
as one that visited the Maori in New Zealand. However,<br />
many who had been to less vulnerable places in Europe<br />
and Australia were also asked. When there was a choice,<br />
faculty and staff who had led multiple programs with<br />
larger numbers of students were asked to participate over<br />
those with fewer numbers and less experience. Participants<br />
ranged in experience from second-year assistant professors<br />
who had led one program to full professors who have been<br />
leading programs for over twenty years.<br />
One striking finding was that most participants had<br />
not seriously considered the negative impacts that their<br />
students might have abroad when they were planning<br />
their program, even those who were able to articulate<br />
potential negative effects during the focus groups. This was<br />
attributed to the real needs of pressing program logistics,<br />
including planning the syllabus. Of those who did plan<br />
for potentially negative impacts of their program, the most<br />
common measure was developing group guidelines or<br />
setting up penalties (including sending students home)<br />
for destructive behavior related to alcohol consumption.<br />
Participants were nearly unanimous in their view that<br />
alcohol abuse contributed substantially to poor student<br />
behavior and increased the likelihood that the students<br />
would have a negative impact on the community they<br />
visited.<br />
However, few participants went beyond thinking about<br />
the negative impact that alcohol can have to consider other<br />
unintended negative consequences. Few expressed concern<br />
over exacerbating income inequality, though some commented<br />
on the demonstration effects of bringing wealthy<br />
students into poor communities. In general, virtually all
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participants assumed or asserted that economic repercussions<br />
were positive, and had considered few or no<br />
cultural or social effects of the study-abroad program<br />
they led. Even senior faculty members with extensive<br />
international experience and doctorates in a social science<br />
discipline had not thought through the implications for<br />
host communities of their visits. However, there were a<br />
few faculty and staff (not always the most experienced)<br />
who did discuss negative effects, some they had actually<br />
seen, others that they feared. Once these were mentioned<br />
in the focus groups, most participants were interested in<br />
hearing about issues they had not considered, and all were<br />
actively concerned about the effects of student visits on host<br />
communities.<br />
The few who mentioned negative impacts were concerned<br />
primarily with economic issues that result in<br />
inequity or dependency in host communities, though there<br />
were also concerns about cultural impacts. Home stays<br />
in middle-class housing, unequal distribution of gifts, the<br />
demonstration effect of student consumption, and reliance<br />
upon relatively wealthy visitors to solve local problems<br />
were all discussed. One participant had put a hold on<br />
taking students to an area he had visited for decades,<br />
because he saw major signs of dependency, on him and<br />
the relationships his programs had established in the<br />
community, for addressing local concerns, especially in<br />
providing money. One had stopped going to areas that were<br />
geographically and culturally isolated because he feared<br />
the effect of his programs on those communities, which he<br />
perceived as particularly vulnerable. On the other hand,<br />
one faculty member commented that ten more students<br />
from our university going to Madrid were not going to<br />
have much of an impact on local inhabitants.<br />
These focus groups indicate that faculty and staff who<br />
lead short-term study-abroad programs are generally unaware<br />
of possible negative impacts on host communities<br />
and do not consider the effects of their programs, with the<br />
exception of bad behavior resulting from student abuse of<br />
alcohol. However, once potential negative impacts came<br />
up in discussion, virtually all were receptive to considering<br />
these impacts and thinking about how to mitigate<br />
them.<br />
RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS<br />
Although this research project is still in its early stages,<br />
we feel comfortable drawing some basic conclusions and<br />
making some general recommendations. As researchers,<br />
we have been pleased with how receptive stakeholders<br />
are to making improvements to study abroad in terms of<br />
its effects on host communities. We are hopeful, therefore,<br />
that with time and effort many of these recommendations<br />
will become standard practice at universities and colleges<br />
engaged in such programs.<br />
Institutional Commitment<br />
Colleges and universities must make institutional commitments<br />
to evaluating and mitigating the negative im-<br />
Ideas for Mitigating Negative Community Impacts of Short-Term Study Abroad<br />
pacts of short-term study abroad on host communities.<br />
The commitment of individual leaders of such programs<br />
is necessary, but not sufficient to achieve this goal, as<br />
institutions must provide training, support, and review of<br />
programs to ensure that host communities are not harmed<br />
by our students’ education abroad. As research in this<br />
previously unexplored aspect of study abroad develops,<br />
institutions can help program leaders learn about potential<br />
negative impacts of study abroad. In those institutions that<br />
use vendors to provide short-term study abroad, this<br />
commitment must be transmitted to vendors, and<br />
contracts issued only to those that meet this new<br />
criteria.<br />
Knowledgeable Program Leaders<br />
Program leaders and administrators must become as<br />
knowledgeable as possible about host communities and the<br />
ways they may be harmed by short-term study abroad, in<br />
order to predict and evaluate potential negative impacts.<br />
This process is likely to be helped tremendously by<br />
the involvement of experienced faculty. This does not<br />
necessarily mean that such faculty must lead every program<br />
since they are not necessarily sensitive or trained to observe<br />
the impacts on communities. A committed program leader<br />
may be able to reduce such effects through serious study<br />
and consultation with faculty as well as members of the<br />
community. Whenever possible, however, the expertise of<br />
faculty knowledgeable about the community or the area<br />
to which students are traveling should be involved in<br />
the planning of the program, and in evaluating potential<br />
impacts. Superficial observation is no substitute for<br />
knowledge and analysis resulting from training in the<br />
field.<br />
Student and Community Preparation<br />
Students must be prepared and guided during the program<br />
so that they become active participants in evaluating<br />
and preventing negative impacts on host communities.<br />
Preparation and work during the program has three<br />
components.<br />
First, knowledge of the community must be built so<br />
that students will understand, insofar as possible, how and<br />
why things work the way they do in that area, including<br />
the likely reaction to Americans and effects of students’<br />
presence there. Through guest lectures, readings, films,<br />
and pre-program group presentations, much of this can be<br />
accomplished and will allow service to be well-integrated<br />
with cultural learning.<br />
Second, the group must engage in systematic analyses of<br />
the many ways outsiders can affect any community, how<br />
power dynamics are likely to come into play within and<br />
between the host community and the student group, the<br />
special vulnerabilities of the community being visited, and<br />
ways to minimize negative impacts. This analysis must<br />
include the (gentle!) lesson that good intentions do not<br />
necessarily prevent harm—those intentions must be armed<br />
with knowledge, sensitivity, humility, and commitment.<br />
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Schroeder et al.<br />
Facilitating power/privilege simulation activities, conducting<br />
panel discussions with previous participants, engaging<br />
in frank group discussions, and requiring reflection/reaction<br />
papers from the students before departure<br />
can all assist with teaching these important lessons before<br />
engaging with the host community.<br />
Third, group cohesion and a shared commitment to<br />
respect and share with the host community in a spirit<br />
of mutual learning, and an exchange of equals must be<br />
developed. This kind of cohesion and commitment must<br />
be created through activities, sharing and reflection both<br />
before and during the program. Before the program,<br />
students might engage in group projects about the culture,<br />
meet with students who have been on the program before,<br />
and discuss their likely reactions to the culture(s) they will<br />
be experiencing. Building a group contract about behaviors<br />
on the program that will mitigate potential negative impacts<br />
will also make for a more successful program generally.<br />
Once abroad, home stays to encourage cultural immersion,<br />
making time in the program to be with local people in<br />
contexts that allow for sharing, using local languages when<br />
possible, structuring evening reflection time that allows<br />
for open discussion, and encouraging a group journal<br />
and/or individual journals are among the practices that<br />
are fundamental to creating groups that will be sensitive<br />
to and work to prevent negative impacts on the community<br />
being visited, as well as encouraging good cultural<br />
exchange.<br />
Teaching students how to journal prior to departure<br />
is both an important academic and life skill. Instructors<br />
should develop structured journal questions that<br />
allow reflection to take a deeper, more critical perspective,<br />
rather than just reporting on the experience.<br />
Varying the reflection processes throughout the experience<br />
will accommodate various learning styles and<br />
encourage deeper, more powerful learning. Many ideas<br />
for reflection can be found on the Campus Compact<br />
(http://www.compact.org) and the National Service-Learning<br />
Clearinghouse (http://www.servicelearning.org) Web sites.<br />
Finally, consult with and prepare the community, in<br />
advance of the visit. Members of the host community may<br />
have good suggestions for minimizing negative effects,<br />
but not necessarily. They are as unlikely as students to<br />
have an understanding of foreigners, however interested<br />
they may be. If members of the community have some<br />
understanding of the students’ culture, some potential<br />
conflicts and distress may be reduced. If a local university<br />
or agency is part of the study-abroad program, they should<br />
also be brought into discussions of the effects of the program<br />
on local people, something that they may not have thought<br />
about any more than our institutions have. Ultimately, host<br />
communities should have control over if and how student<br />
groups should visit and study.<br />
Consider Not Going<br />
Consider not going on certain programs and reducing the<br />
numbers of students going overseas. Given the potential<br />
146<br />
environmental, social, and cultural costs of study abroad,<br />
there are some places there is just no responsible way to<br />
visit. Programs with the highest probability of harm to<br />
the host communities should simply not be developed,<br />
despite the recommendation of the Lincoln Commission<br />
and student demand. These locations may not always<br />
be obvious. The environmental impact of visiting some<br />
locations may be profound even when the cultural effect<br />
might be minimal. Some places may be visited so much that<br />
it seems they cannot be harmed—but the cumulative impact<br />
of many visitors to a small place may be cause to hold back<br />
from going there. Attention to the cumulative impact as<br />
well as the higher investment in time of responsible study<br />
abroad also suggests that the number of programs as well as<br />
the number of students on each program should be reduced.<br />
With greater understanding of student learning outcomes<br />
and how they can be applied, this reduction in numbers<br />
might be used to improve the quality of short-term study<br />
abroad.<br />
Long-Term Relationships<br />
Establish long-term commitments to specific communities.<br />
Most of the recommendations above are ultimately<br />
dependent on this; while many of the negative effects of<br />
study abroad can be anticipated with sufficient preparation,<br />
others cannot. Only by knowing people and learning about<br />
a community over time can these unanticipated impacts<br />
be detected and mutual trust created such that problems<br />
can be discussed and addressed. This is not a panacea—<br />
a long-term relationship may in itself become a problem<br />
if it becomes a dependent one. But the dangers of “drive<br />
by” study-abroad programs are too clear to be continued,<br />
once the effects on host communities are acknowledged.<br />
We should be clear that “drive by” is not the same as a<br />
program with a short duration. Programs that last as little as<br />
a week can be long-term provided the institution maintains<br />
a relationship with the host community. Conversely, simply<br />
because a group stays in a particular place for an extended<br />
period of time does not ensure an equitable long-term<br />
relationship.<br />
Institutional Review of Study Abroad<br />
U.S. colleges and universities should develop institutional<br />
review boards (IRBs) to screen international experiences<br />
for unintended negative impacts that shortterm<br />
study abroad might have. IRBs already exist across<br />
campuses to ensure that faculty research does not endanger<br />
the health or safety of our research subjects.<br />
The same consideration should be given to communities<br />
that host our students abroad. These IRBs should be<br />
composed of faculty with academic expertise in vulnerable<br />
areas as well as those with experience in study-abroad<br />
programs.<br />
Though the effects of short-term study abroad pale in<br />
comparison to the overall impact of other forms of travel<br />
from the U.S., academic institutions bear a special responsibility<br />
to engage in ethical relationships with communities
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hosting our students during study abroad. Understanding<br />
and working to mitigate the negative impacts of study<br />
abroad on host communities must become part of how we<br />
understand what we do when our colleges and universities<br />
sponsor such programs.<br />
We are all too aware that this research raises as many<br />
questions as it answers. How exactly does one prevent<br />
dependency from developing in a long-term study-abroad<br />
relationship? How do we determine the cultural impact<br />
over time of students’ study abroad? How do we spend<br />
money to feed and house students without increasing<br />
income inequalities? These are difficult questions, and<br />
the answers to some of them may not even be possible.<br />
But we believe that if these questions are not asked, if the<br />
impacts on local communities of study abroad continue to<br />
be ignored, that we will without a doubt be engaged in the<br />
pursuit of academic goals at the expense of people who<br />
have no choice about the matter. Many of the answers to<br />
these questions are held within our collective knowledge<br />
of the places with which we have deep relationships. Our<br />
long-term commitments to the places we have studied<br />
provide the starting point for what we hope will be long<br />
and fruitful conversation.<br />
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS<br />
The authors are indebted to our student researcher Kara<br />
Brown who did much to get this research project started<br />
and provided thoughtful critiques in its early stages. Dr.<br />
Sarah Banks, a sustainable tourism expert, also contributed<br />
substantially to this project in its formative stages.<br />
NOTES<br />
1. Research on the effects of study abroad on students<br />
remains underdeveloped. How long do students<br />
need to be abroad before they start to gain crosscultural<br />
skills? What experiences and assignments<br />
are necessary to meet learning objectives? Of the<br />
few studies that examine the impact on students,<br />
some are very disturbing. Gmelch (2004) studied the<br />
journals of students enrolled in anthropology classes<br />
at the University of Innsbruck. Students attended<br />
classes Monday through Thursday and traveled on<br />
the weekends. Analysis of student journals found<br />
that they were surprisingly shallow, naïve, and<br />
simplistic; students gained very little from simply<br />
traveling.<br />
2. Short-term study abroad is the largest growing<br />
proportion of international programs at this time,<br />
and, in our view, much more likely to have negative<br />
impacts on host communities than individual or<br />
small groups of students who go on semester or yearlong<br />
study abroad at a foreign university.<br />
Ideas for Mitigating Negative Community Impacts of Short-Term Study Abroad<br />
REFERENCES<br />
Archer, B., C. Cooper, and L. Ruhanen. 2005. The positive<br />
and negative impacts of tourism. In Global Tourism, ed.<br />
W. F. Theobold, pp. 79–102. New York: Elsevier.<br />
Campus Compact. 2008. Resources. http://www.compact.<br />
org/syllabi/syllabus.php?viewsyllabus=691 (accessed<br />
September 23, 2008).<br />
Commission on the Abraham Lincoln Study Abroad<br />
Fellowship Program. 2005. Global competence and national<br />
needs: One million Americans studying abroad.<br />
http://www.nafsa.org/public policy.sec/public policy<br />
document/study abroad 1/lincoln commission report<br />
(accessed May 14, 2008).<br />
Forum on Education Abroad. 2008. Standards of good practice<br />
for education abroad. http://www.forumea.org/<br />
standards-standards.cfm (accessed October 3, 2008).<br />
Gmelch, G. 2004. Let’s go Europe: What student tourists<br />
really learn. In Tourists and Tourism: A Reader, ed. S. B.<br />
Gmelch, pp. 419–432. Long Grove, Illinois: Waveland<br />
Press.<br />
Institute of International Education. 2007. Opendoors 2007<br />
fast facts. http://opendoors.iienetwork.org/ (accessed<br />
February 19, 2008).<br />
Lawson, V. A. 2005. Internationalizing geography at the<br />
dawn of the twenty-first century. AAG Newsletter 40:2,<br />
3.<br />
Lew, A., C. Hall, and A. Williams, eds. 2004. A Companion to<br />
Tourism. Malden, Massachusetts: Blackwell Publishers.<br />
McLaren, D. 2006. Rethinking Tourism and Ecotravel. Bloomfield,<br />
Connecticut: Kumarian Press.<br />
NAFSA: Association of International Educators. 2008.<br />
Public policy: Senator Paul Simon Study<br />
Abroad Foundation Act. http://www.nafsa.org/<br />
public policy.sec/commission on the abraham (accessed<br />
October 3, 2008).<br />
National Service-Learning Clearinghouse. 2008. Library<br />
services. http://servicelearning.org/library/lib cat/<br />
index.php?action=detailed&item=4272 (accessed September<br />
23, 2008).<br />
Shaw, G., and A. Williams. 2002. Critical Issues in Tourism: A<br />
Geographical Perspective. 2nd ed. Oxford, UK: Blackwell<br />
Publishers.<br />
Zurick, D. 1992. Adventure travel and sustainable tourism<br />
in the peripheral economy of Nepal. Annals of<br />
the Association of American Geographers 82 (4): 608–<br />
628.<br />
147
<strong>Mountain</strong>s of the World - A Global 1<br />
Priority<br />
Jack D. lues, Bruno Messerli, and Ernst Spiess<br />
INTRODUCTION - CHAPTER 13<br />
(1992) AND THE EARTH SUMMIT<br />
REVIEW (1997)<br />
In 1992, the Rio Earth Summit (UNCED) not only<br />
established the UN Commission on Sustainable<br />
Development (CSD), it set in motion the mechanism<br />
for review of the progress made within the<br />
first five years following the Summit (Rio Plus Five<br />
or Earth Summit Review, 1997). In turn, the CSD<br />
appointed Task Managers for each of the chapters<br />
of Agenda 21. Task Managers were related to Focal<br />
Points located within the existing structures of the<br />
relevant UN agencies. As mentioned in the Preface,<br />
the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO)<br />
accepted the role of Task Manager for Chapter 13<br />
(managing fragile ecosystems - sustainable mountain<br />
development) (see also Chapter 18).<br />
The main approach of the Rio Plus Five review<br />
has involved each Task Manager unit, through its<br />
own committee structure, working in close association<br />
with the CSD. The ensuing comprehensive<br />
report is to be submitted by the CSD to a Special<br />
Session of the UN General Assembly in New York,<br />
scheduled for June 1997. This report should contain<br />
the following elements:<br />
(1) overall assessment of the economic, social, and<br />
environmental situation five years after<br />
UNCED, and prospects for the future;<br />
(2) main achievements following UNCED;<br />
(3) most significant problems in Agenda 21 implementation;<br />
(4) major challenges and priorities for the period<br />
following 1997;<br />
(5) suggestions for institutional changes following<br />
1997.<br />
This general framework has been applied in standardised<br />
fashion to each Task Manager and the<br />
space allotted for the individual chapter reports has<br />
been tightly constrained. Nevertheless, beyond the<br />
precise specifications for the chapter reports, the<br />
Task Managers have had considerable freedom of<br />
action. In the case of Chapter 13, there has been a<br />
virtually unprecedented level of collaboration<br />
amongst UN agencies, national governments, international<br />
organisations, NGOs, and research institutions.<br />
This book, and the companion document:<br />
<strong>Mountain</strong>s of the World: Challenges for the 21st<br />
Century (<strong>Mountain</strong> Agenda, 1997), of course, is<br />
only one element of the FAO Chapter 13 Task<br />
Manager initiative. Its preparation, while supported<br />
financially by several governmental and UN<br />
agencies, especially by the Swiss Agency for<br />
Development and Cooperation, has been a strictly<br />
open academic and independent process.<br />
There is no doubt that the Rio Earth Summit<br />
with Agenda 21 has produced a much heightened<br />
awareness of the essential role played by the mountains<br />
as an integral part of the global biophysical<br />
and socio-economic system. It has also stimulated<br />
a large number of initiatives at all governmental<br />
and NGO levels. Whether or not this activity has<br />
moved from simply further increasing mountain<br />
awareness to actually changing conditions for the<br />
better, will be part of the task of the Special Session<br />
of the UN General Assembly to answer. In practice,<br />
we believe that much longer than five years will be<br />
required and the question will need a specific answer<br />
in a case-by-case evaluation for individual<br />
mountain regions. Thus, the present Rio Plus Five<br />
exercise, while it will go part way toward a general<br />
assessment, should be regarded as a first step in<br />
what must be framed as a long-term undertaking.<br />
In addition, the review process should aid in the<br />
identification of any trends, based on selected case<br />
studies, it should point to areas of weakness in the<br />
post-Rio process, and layout, much more precisely,<br />
the challenges and priorities that must be faced as<br />
we enter the next millennium.<br />
To provide a baseline for future mountain evaluation<br />
it should be worthwhile to consider the<br />
introductory statement from Chapter 13:<br />
1
MOUNTAINS - A GLOBAL PRIORITY<br />
<strong>Mountain</strong>s are an important source of water,<br />
energy and biological diversity. Furthermore,<br />
they are a source of such key resources as<br />
minerals, forest products, and agricultural<br />
products, and of recreation. As a major<br />
ecosystem representing the complex and<br />
interrelated ecology of our planet, mountain<br />
environments are essential to the survival of<br />
the global ecosystem. <strong>Mountain</strong> ecosystems<br />
are, however, rapidly changing. They are<br />
susceptible to accelerated soil erosion, landslides,<br />
and rapid loss of habitat and genetic<br />
diversity. On the human side, there is widespread<br />
poverty among mountain inhabitants,<br />
and loss of indigenous knowledge. As a<br />
result, most global mountain areas are<br />
experiencing environmental degradation.<br />
Hence, the proper management of mountain<br />
resources and socio-economic development<br />
of the people deserves immediate attention.<br />
(Agenda 21, Chapter 13, final version,<br />
adopted by the Plenary Session in Rio de<br />
Janeiro on 14 June, 1992).<br />
We submit that the above quotation is an imperfect<br />
statement: it was a compromise that had to be<br />
pushed through the UNCED Preparatory Committees<br />
in the face of considerable opposition. This<br />
opposition challenged the stand that mountains<br />
constituted a viable unitary system, or formulation,<br />
and argued that the mountain issues were already<br />
covered in many of the other chapters that were<br />
being developed to become Agenda 21 (Table 1.1).<br />
This led to the contention that a special chapter for<br />
mountains (i.e. Chapter 13) was not necessary.<br />
While it is impressive to see how many chapters<br />
of Agenda 21 have elements that relate directly to<br />
mountains, the same can be said for tropical<br />
rainforests, and the other 'fragile ecosystems': and<br />
at the moment of potential challenge in Rio, Chapter<br />
13 was approved by acclamation and without<br />
controversy. However, we expect that the issue of<br />
mountain authenticity will continue to surface<br />
during these times of limited resources and international<br />
uncertainties. Thus we will contend that,<br />
while the mountains do contain elements of all the<br />
other major (and more readily defined) ecosystems<br />
- tropical rain forests, arid zones, polar-type<br />
regions, coastal zones, grasslands, wetlands, and<br />
the various other forest ecosystems - their unique<br />
characteristic, verticality, overwhelmingly warrants<br />
their priority ranking. To this argument can<br />
be added the warning that many of the past<br />
2<br />
development projects failed, at least in part, because<br />
mountain specificities were either ignored or<br />
not fully understood (Chapter 14).<br />
Our argument, however, will only be justified to<br />
the extent that an integrated and comprehensive<br />
approach to mountain development, and its<br />
supporting research structure, is recognised and<br />
attained. By this we mean, amongst other requirements,<br />
a strong linkage between the human and<br />
biophysical elements of the mountain environment<br />
must be perfected, and that the mountain problems<br />
must be integrated with all related global issues<br />
(Figure 1.1).<br />
DEFINITION OF THE MOUNTAIN<br />
ZONE<br />
As with many aspects of application of mountain<br />
knowledge to policy formulation in the interests of<br />
sustainable development, a basic problem remains:<br />
how do we define mountain? The inability of<br />
mountain scholars to produce a rigorous definition<br />
Table 1.1 Agenda 21 chapters with relevance to<br />
mountains<br />
Chapter 2<br />
Chapter 3<br />
Chapter 6<br />
Chapter 7<br />
Chapter 8<br />
Chapter 11<br />
Chapter 12<br />
Chapter 14<br />
Chapter 15<br />
Chapter 18<br />
Chapter 24<br />
Chapter 26<br />
Chapter 27<br />
Chapter 28<br />
Chapter 32<br />
Chapter 33<br />
Chapter 34<br />
Chapter 35<br />
Chapter 36<br />
Chapter 37<br />
Chapter 39<br />
Chapter 40<br />
International Cooperation<br />
Combating Poverty<br />
Protecting and Promoting Human<br />
Health<br />
Sustainable Human Settlements<br />
Making Decisions for Sustainable<br />
Development<br />
Combating Deforestation<br />
Combating Desertification<br />
Sustainable Agriculture and Rural<br />
Development<br />
Conservation of Biological Diversity<br />
Protecting and Managing Fresh Water<br />
Women in Sustainable Development<br />
Strengthening the Role of Indigenous<br />
People<br />
Partnerships with NGOs<br />
Local Authorities<br />
Strengthening the Role of Farmers<br />
Financing Sustainable Development<br />
Technology Transfer<br />
Sciencefor Sustainable Development<br />
Education, Training, and Public<br />
Awareness<br />
Creating Capacity for Sustainable<br />
Development<br />
International Law<br />
Information for Decision Making<br />
(and so on)
MOUNTAINS - A GLOBAL PRIORITY<br />
<strong>Mountain</strong>s are an important source of water,<br />
energy and biological diversity. Furthermore,<br />
they are a source of such key resources as<br />
minerals, forest products, and agricultural<br />
products, and of recreation. As a major<br />
ecosystem representing the complex and<br />
interrelated ecology of our planet, mountain<br />
environments are essential to the survival of<br />
the global ecosystem. <strong>Mountain</strong> ecosystems<br />
are, however, rapidly changing. They are<br />
susceptible to accelerated soil erosion, landslides,<br />
and rapid loss of habitat and genetic<br />
diversity. On the human side, there is widespread<br />
poverty among mountain inhabitants,<br />
and loss of indigenous knowledge. As a<br />
result, most global mountain areas are<br />
experiencing environmental degradation.<br />
Hence, the proper management of mountain<br />
resources and socio-economic development<br />
of the people deserves immediate attention.<br />
(Agenda 21, Chapter 13, final version,<br />
adopted by the Plenary Session in Rio de<br />
Janeiro on 14 June, 1992).<br />
We submit that the above quotation is an imperfect<br />
statement: it was a compromise that had to be<br />
pushed through the UNCED Preparatory Committees<br />
in the face of considerable opposition. This<br />
opposition challenged the stand that mountains<br />
constituted a viable unitary system, or formulation,<br />
and argued that the mountain issues were already<br />
covered in many of the other chapters that were<br />
being developed to become Agenda 21 (Table 1.1).<br />
This led to the contention that a special chapter for<br />
mountains (i.e. Chapter 13) was not necessary.<br />
While it is impressive to see how many chapters<br />
of Agenda 21 have elements that relate directly to<br />
mountains, the same can be said for tropical<br />
rainforests, and the other 'fragile ecosystems': and<br />
at the moment of potential challenge in Rio, Chapter<br />
13 was approved by acclamation and without<br />
controversy. However, we expect that the issue of<br />
mountain authenticity will continue to surface<br />
during these times of limited resources and international<br />
uncertainties. Thus we will contend that,<br />
while the mountains do contain elements of all the<br />
other major (and more readily defined) ecosystems<br />
- tropical rain forests, arid zones, polar-type<br />
regions, coastal zones, grasslands, wetlands, and<br />
the various other forest ecosystems - their unique<br />
characteristic, verticality, overwhelmingly warrants<br />
their priority ranking. To this argument can<br />
be added the warning that many of the past<br />
2<br />
development projects failed, at least in part, because<br />
mountain specificities were either ignored or<br />
not fully understood (Chapter 14).<br />
Our argument, however, will only be justified to<br />
the extent that an integrated and comprehensive<br />
approach to mountain development, and its<br />
supporting research structure, is recognised and<br />
attained. By this we mean, amongst other requirements,<br />
a strong linkage between the human and<br />
biophysical elements of the mountain environment<br />
must be perfected, and that the mountain problems<br />
must be integrated with all related global issues<br />
(Figure 1.1).<br />
DEFINITION OF THE MOUNTAIN<br />
ZONE<br />
As with many aspects of application of mountain<br />
knowledge to policy formulation in the interests of<br />
sustainable development, a basic problem remains:<br />
how do we define mountain? The inability of<br />
mountain scholars to produce a rigorous definition<br />
Table 1.1 Agenda 21 chapters with relevance to<br />
mountains<br />
Chapter 2 International Cooperation<br />
Chapter 3 Combating Poverty<br />
Chapter 6 Protecting and Promoting Human<br />
Health<br />
Chapter 7 Sustainable Human Settlements<br />
Chapter 8 Making Decisions for Sustainable<br />
Development<br />
Chapter 11 Combating Deforestation<br />
Chapter 12 Combating Desertification<br />
Chapter 14 Sustainable Agriculture and Rural<br />
Development<br />
Chapter 15 Conservation of Biological Diversity<br />
Chapter 18 Protecting and Managing Fresh Water<br />
Chapter 24 Women in Sustainable Development<br />
Chapter 26 Strengthening the Role of Indigenous<br />
People<br />
Chapter 27 Partnerships with NGOs<br />
Chapter 28 Local Authorities<br />
Chapter 32 Strengthening the Role of Farmers<br />
Chapter 33 Financing Sustainable Development<br />
Chapter 34 Technology Transfer<br />
Chapter 35 Sciencefor Sustainable Development<br />
Chapter 36 Education, Training, and Public<br />
Awareness<br />
Chapter 37 Creating Capacity for Sustainable<br />
Development<br />
Chapter 39 International Law<br />
Chapter 40 Information for Decision Making<br />
(and so on)
MOUNTAINS - A GLOBAL PRIORITY<br />
Plate 1.1 Nevado Sajama, 18° South, Bolivia's<br />
highest mountain and site of the world's highest forests<br />
tPolylepis trees close to 5000 m). (Photograph:<br />
B. Messerli)<br />
Scottish Cairngorms, and large sections of the<br />
mountains in Norway and Sweden, at least rise well<br />
above both the climatic and the anthropomorphic<br />
timberlines; the Mittelgebirge (Middle <strong>Mountain</strong>s)<br />
of Central Europe rarely do so. Yet they must all<br />
be included as mountains.<br />
We can trace the beginnings of intellectual realisation<br />
of the significance of mountains in the<br />
'Western context' to Alexander von Humboldt<br />
(1769-1859). His travels in the Andes led him to<br />
categorise the three-dimensional nature of mountains<br />
and to recognise the influence of latitude on<br />
the elevation of the distinctive altitudinal belts<br />
(Figure 1.2). These altitudinal belts primarily identify<br />
the upslope progression of changes in vegetation<br />
cover and landforms. He also recorded the<br />
adaptation of the <strong>Andean</strong>s to these altitudinal 'life<br />
zones' in terms of their subsistence and patterns of<br />
movement and exchange. Much later, this very<br />
4<br />
early initiative evolved into John Murra's (1972)<br />
concept of the 'vertical archipelago', itself derived<br />
from Carl Troll's (1954, 1975, 1978) elaboration<br />
of Humboldt's legacy (Bromme, 1851) into his<br />
more sophisticated concept of altitudinal belts.<br />
Troll went on to attempt a natural science classification<br />
of mountains with a clear distinction between<br />
Hochgebirge (High <strong>Mountain</strong>s, such as the<br />
Alps) and Mittelgebirge (Middle <strong>Mountain</strong>s, such<br />
as the Black Forest), and between the glaciated and<br />
non-glaciated mountains.<br />
Nevertheless, since Troll's interests extended to<br />
embrace mountains world-wide, he quickly identified<br />
the dilemma facing any attempt to produce a<br />
universal classification. For instance, he referred to<br />
mountain areas in the humid equatorial zone, such<br />
as those extending above 3000 m in Indonesia, as<br />
'high mountains without a high mountain landscape'.<br />
This problem facing attempts to produce a<br />
classification of mountains becomes even more<br />
acute, for instance, when we try to incorporate the<br />
high lands of Ethiopia and East Africa. These highland<br />
areas traditionally have been much more<br />
favourable to human settlement than the surrounding<br />
arid and semi-arid lowlands. Further difficulties<br />
arise with mountains in the extreme arid zone, such<br />
as the Eastern Pamir and the Tibesti and Hoggar of<br />
the Sahara that have neither forest belts nor landforms<br />
produced by former glaciation. And for<br />
mountains in general, the most intensely utilised<br />
terrain is that located below the high mountain<br />
stage (upper timberline) (Figure 1.3): here are to be<br />
found the more serious intensities of human landscape<br />
intervention. More recently, these schematic<br />
representations have combined physical and<br />
human attributes of verticality (Lauer, 1993; Figure<br />
1.4) and have been employed to demonstrate<br />
responses to climatic change over thousands of<br />
years (Messerli, et al., 1993; Figure 1.5).<br />
Concurrent with, and subsequent to, but also<br />
using the Trollean altitudinal belt classification as<br />
a starting point, Uhlig (1984, 1995), Grotzbach<br />
(1984, 1988), Kreutzmann (1995), and others,<br />
developed a tentative cultural geography of mountain<br />
regions (see Chapter 2). This depicts a fine line<br />
between the impacts of increasing altitude (the<br />
verticality issue) and the overlay of culture and,<br />
more recently, the penetration of the world market<br />
economy with the accelerated spread of modern<br />
communication systems. Uhlig, in particular,<br />
studied the altitudinal limits of domestic crops and<br />
forms of human subsistence, such as Almwirtschaft
(mixed mountain farming), transhumance, and nomadism<br />
(Uhlig, ed. Kreutzmann, 1995). Crotzbach<br />
(1988) proposed the first cultural geographic<br />
typology of mountains.<br />
From the foregoing discussion it should be<br />
apparent that the world's mountains do not lend<br />
themselves to a unifying definition and classification<br />
that goes beyond the simple combination of<br />
'steepness of slope' and 'altitude'. <strong>Mountain</strong>s,<br />
obviously, are regions of accentuated relief and<br />
MOUNTAINS OF THE WORLD<br />
altitude, which influence climate, soil fertility,<br />
vegetation, slope instability, and accessibility.<br />
From the humid sub-tropical and temperate zones<br />
polewards, all land-use activities are disadvantaged<br />
compared with the subjacent and neighbouring<br />
more densely populated lowlands. This comparative<br />
mountain disadvantage has been recognised in<br />
the recent extant and pending legislation of<br />
European countries, such as Switzerland, Germany,<br />
Norway, and others (Chapters 4 and 5). But<br />
Plate 1.2 <strong>Mountain</strong>s in high latitude, even of modest elevation, display a 'high mountain' (Hochgebirge)<br />
landscape, comparable to the Alps cut off at timberline and reduced to sea level. Inugsuin Pinnacles, Baffin<br />
Island, Canada, in latitude 70 0N. (Photograph: J. D. Ives)<br />
5
MOUNTAINS - A GLOBAL PRIORITY<br />
11 percent exceeds 2000 m; 5 percent lies above<br />
3000 m; and 2 percent above 4000 m. In certain<br />
regions of the world, such as Western Europe, the<br />
humid inner tropics, and the Pacific high islands,<br />
500 m is already a significant altitude. However,<br />
much of Kansas, Nebraska, and eastern Colorado<br />
lies appreciably higher than this and, to the inhabitants<br />
of these flat prairie lands, mountains begin<br />
much further westward, along the Rocky <strong>Mountain</strong><br />
front at about 1500 m. Similar comparisons<br />
can be made for other parts of the world.<br />
To demonstrate that nearly half of the world's<br />
land surface lies above 500 m tends to support our<br />
conclusion that the search for a unitary definition<br />
of mountain is to chase a chimera. It follows that<br />
several definitions, which are region-specific, are<br />
needed. While we believe it has been necessary to<br />
pursue this rather tortuous path in our opening<br />
chapter, we also contend that to pursue it further<br />
becomes academic. We therefore return to our<br />
long-standing guestimate that 'mountains occupy<br />
about a fifth of the world's land surface and provide<br />
the direct life-support base for about a tenth<br />
of humankind'. We will return to this 'truism' after<br />
a global survey of mountains and a discussion of<br />
the one outstanding aspect - verticality - mountains<br />
as high-energy environments.<br />
A BRIEF SURVEY OF THE WORLD'S<br />
MOUNTAINS<br />
<strong>Mountain</strong>s are found on every continent, from the<br />
equator polewards as far as land persists. Taken<br />
together, on account of their three-dimensional<br />
nature, as a single great landscape category, or<br />
ecosystem in the broadest sense, they encompass<br />
the most extensive array of topography, climate,<br />
flora and fauna, as well as human cultural differentiation,<br />
known to humankind. Furthermore,<br />
geologically and tectonically, mountains comprise<br />
the most complex elements of the earth's underlying<br />
structures.<br />
<strong>Mountain</strong>s and uplands incorporate the inhuman<br />
and extremely cold and sterile high ice<br />
plateaus of Antarctica and Greenland, and the<br />
high, dry, hypoxic, and almost inhospitable ranges<br />
of Central Asia and the south-central High Andes.<br />
They also include the richly varied, and even<br />
luxuriant, ridge and valley systems of the humid<br />
subtropics and tropics, such as the Himalaya, the<br />
Hengduan <strong>Mountain</strong>s, Mt Cameroon, sections of<br />
the Northern Andes, and parts of New Guinea. In<br />
East Africa and Ethiopia the flanks of the high<br />
8<br />
mountains have long been a preferred human habitat<br />
compared with the more arid lowland areas<br />
that surround them. Additionally, there must be<br />
included an enormous compass of other mountains.<br />
Thus, there are the high volcanoes, for instance,<br />
of Indonesia, the Caribbean, and Hawai'i,<br />
where humans have long benefited from access to<br />
rich soils and have been exposed to extreme fiery<br />
hazards. There are also what are usually called<br />
middle mountains (German: Mittelgebirge), ranging<br />
from Tasmania to South Africa, and from<br />
Central and Northern Europe to the Urals and<br />
Siberia. While these latter contrast with the Alps<br />
(the epitome of the Hochgebirge) because of<br />
their more subdued relief, their other mountain<br />
attributes demand special policies to ensure sustained<br />
resource use.<br />
<strong>Mountain</strong>s and uplands contain the largest<br />
number of environmentally protected areas,<br />
including biosphere reserves, national forests,<br />
national and international parks, and World Heritage<br />
Sites (see Chapter 11), of any of the world's<br />
major landscape categories. Even when we exclude<br />
the two big ice sheets, mountains provide more<br />
than half the world's fresh water (see Chapter 7),<br />
as well as significant proportions of its timber (see<br />
Chapter 13), minerals (see Chapter 9), and grazing<br />
lands (see Chapter 15). They also serve as the abode<br />
of the deities of many of the world's religions (see<br />
Chapter 3) and provide an over-arching spirituality,<br />
aesthetic, and source of myth, legend, and<br />
psychological balm and aspiration for society at<br />
large (see Chapter 12).<br />
When the intrinsic and spiritual resources are<br />
considered together, we are compelled to assert that<br />
mountains, in addition to providing the life-support<br />
base for about ten percent of the world population,<br />
are vital for the well-being of more than half<br />
of humankind. Their priority ranking, as world<br />
governance begins to grapple with sustainable<br />
development for the twenty-first century, would<br />
appear secure from the foregoing introductory remarks<br />
alone. Yet we must also take into account<br />
the actual and perceived threats to the lowlands if<br />
mismanagement of mountain resources continues<br />
unabated. In this sense, mountains are not only<br />
suppliers of many products, they are protection<br />
watersheds for the lowlands. The converse of 'protection'<br />
is that they are potential destroyers of the<br />
life-support systems of the hundreds of millions of<br />
people on the plains. Even when the threats, for<br />
instance, of deforestation as a cause of catastrophic<br />
flooding of Gangetic India and Bangladesh, are
Plate 1.3 Mount Kasbegh (5047 rn), Caucasus,<br />
once the place where an angry Zeus chained the<br />
miscreant Prometheus for giving fire to mankind.<br />
Today, Georgians, Ossetians, Chechens, and Russians<br />
devastate both the mountain environment and<br />
each others' homelands. (Photograph: J. D. Ives)<br />
only perceived rather than proven, there are both<br />
serious implications as well as prospects for profligate<br />
expenditures to solve problems that have not<br />
been correctly analysed (Ives and Messerli, 1989).<br />
In many parts of the world, mountains form<br />
international and provincial frontiers, and many of<br />
these today are in contention. We need only<br />
mention the entire Hindu Kush-Karakorum<br />
Himalayan region; the frontiers of Chile, Argentina,<br />
Bolivia, Peru, and Ecuador in the Andes; the<br />
Caucasus; and the Balkans. The majority of today's<br />
most pernicious and destructive armed conflicts,<br />
guerrilla activities (Chapter 6), as well as the devastating<br />
drug wars, hinge on our mountains.<br />
But there are also positive aspects that need to<br />
bereinforced. <strong>Mountain</strong>s harbour by far the largest<br />
number of distinct ethnic groups, varied remnants<br />
of cultural traditions, environmental knowledge,<br />
and habitat adaptations; they host some of the<br />
world's most complex agro-cultural gene pools and<br />
traditional management practices (ef Peruvian<br />
Andes: Zimmerer, 1996). They offer primary challenges<br />
to research and scholarship and will likely<br />
prove vital field laboratories for early detection of<br />
some of the first indications of climate change<br />
(Chapter 17). The positive benefits that are inher-<br />
MOUNTAINS OF THE WORLD<br />
ent in the proliferation of trans-border parks-forpeace,<br />
inspirational enrichment, recreation, and<br />
spiritual and physical challenge, make mountains<br />
an indispensable element of the human heritage.<br />
These attributes will become increasingly important<br />
if the enormous problems of the next century<br />
are to be faced and overcome.<br />
Perhaps the only generalisation that can be<br />
made about mountains, however, is that, except for<br />
the three-dimensional landscape characteristic and<br />
the relative marginality and inaccessibility, generalisation<br />
should be avoided. In the popular eye,<br />
until recently (and still a prevailing trait), mountains<br />
have been perceived as vast, rugged, and<br />
remote landscapes, seemingly inured to human<br />
environmental impacts. Despite this, by the 1960s<br />
another, contrasting, popular view emerged. In this<br />
view, over-development, winter sports, mass tourism<br />
in general, rapid population growth, deforestation,<br />
soil erosion, accelerated run-off and devastating<br />
downstream effects, have been perceived as<br />
leading to a world super-crisis. Yet these viewpoints<br />
are overwhelmingly those from centres of<br />
population and power from outside the mountains.<br />
At the same time as this great mountain contradiction<br />
was emerging (the one viewpoint producing<br />
complacency and benign neglect, the other leading<br />
to hysteria) bilateral and international development<br />
agencies tended to treat mountains as<br />
unimportant two-dimensional adjuncts to be<br />
accommodated as fringe attachments to the big<br />
development projects on the surrounding and<br />
much more densely populated plains. It seems that<br />
there was (is) a prevailing conviction that, dollar<br />
for dollar, better investment value would be obtained,<br />
in terms of economic successes, in the lowlands.<br />
Here accessibility is superior, infrastructure<br />
better developed, or less costly to establish and<br />
maintain. Traditionally, therefore, most political<br />
and economic interactions between highlands and<br />
lowlands have been initiated from the lowlands:<br />
policy decisions made in the lowlands and imposed<br />
on the highlands. The inhabitants of the mountain<br />
regions have been obliged to suffer exploitation, or<br />
to defend themselves, or to react to outside pressures;<br />
they have had little chance to act out their<br />
own destinies.<br />
PHYSICAL PROCESSES IN MOUNTAINS<br />
In providing an overview of the dynamic geomorphic<br />
processes operating in mountains, we must<br />
emphasise that by far the majority of twentieth<br />
9
MOUNTAINS - A GLOBAL PRIORITY<br />
century research in this field has concentrated on<br />
the Hochgebirge. The reasons for this are obvious<br />
and yet are worthy of emphasis here. First, there is<br />
the personal attitude of individuals from 'Western'<br />
affluent societies. The high mountains are dramatically<br />
appealing and there is no doubt that an<br />
adventure element has influenced many mountain<br />
researchers. Second, there is also a pragmatic<br />
element. With the quantification of geophysical<br />
mountain research in the two decades following<br />
World War II, steeper and relatively unvegetated<br />
slopes greatly facilitated the acquisition of 'precisely'<br />
surveyed process data in a relatively short<br />
time period, simply because the processes are more<br />
dynamic under these types of locale. (Downslope<br />
movement proceeds much more rapidly and, therefore,<br />
can be measured to a much higher standard<br />
of accuracy with the available instruments in unit<br />
time.) A third factor could well be that of the<br />
relative inaccessibility of the research site, whereby<br />
markers and instruments could be left in place over<br />
several years with much reduced risk of interference<br />
by curious villagers or passers-by.<br />
Today, a vast literature exists on this general<br />
field of enquiry. Some of the elements of high<br />
mountain process studies are mentioned here because<br />
the results must be taken into consideration<br />
whenever human interventions are to be perpetrated<br />
on mountain slopes at any altitude. The<br />
Plate 1.4 Unteraargletscher near Grimselpass,<br />
Switzerland: frost weathering, glaciated landforms<br />
and retreating glaciers. (Photograph: J. D. Ives)<br />
10<br />
primary English language references are: Rapp's<br />
(1960) pioneer study of mountain slope processes;<br />
Price's (1981) synthesis of mountain physical geography;<br />
Gerrard's (1990) more recent synthesis of<br />
research on the same topic; Barsch (1984); and<br />
Hewitt's attempts to link our growing knowledge<br />
of catastrophic processes and their interactions<br />
with humans and their property, in terms of natural<br />
hazard research (see Chapter 16).<br />
Itcan be argued that more geomorphic work can<br />
be accomplished during single catastrophic events<br />
than from all mass-transfer precisely measured for<br />
a decade, or observed over centuries (Ives, 1989).<br />
The effects of a hundred-year or even several<br />
hundred years' event may also be dwarfed by even<br />
more spectacular occurrences: for example, a very<br />
large landslide that occurred in the Langtang<br />
Himal, Nepal, 25 000 or more years ago. This<br />
landslide displaced approximately 10 km 3 of debris<br />
through a vertical distance of 2000 m. Something<br />
similar occurred at Kofels, in the Otztal Alps<br />
of Austria, about 9500 years ago, when a landslide<br />
displaced 3 km ' of debris through up to 1000<br />
vertical metres (Heuberger et al., 1984).<br />
Some other examples may be mentioned here.<br />
First, in 1970, a debris flow, resulting from an<br />
earthquake-induced avalanche near the summit of<br />
Huascaran (6768 m) in the Peruvian Cordillera<br />
Blanca, covered 150 km 2 with debris, annihilated<br />
the town of Yungay, and killed 18000 people<br />
(Patzelt, 1983). Second, in October, 1968, rainfall,<br />
varying between 600 and 1200 mm fell on the<br />
Darjeeling area of the Himalaya, during a three-day<br />
period at the end of the summer monsoon period<br />
when the ground was already saturated. Some<br />
20000 people were killed, injured, or displaced<br />
(Ives, 1970; Starkel, 1972). Third, in southeast<br />
Iceland 155 mm of rain in twenty-four hours on 29<br />
July 1982 caused several dozen debris flows in a<br />
small area of Skaftafell National Park. One of us<br />
has photographed and observed this area qualitatively<br />
from 1952 to 1994 and estimates that (with<br />
the exception of the very high rates of glacial<br />
erosion, deposition, and associated jokulhlaup or<br />
glacial lake outburst flood and fluvio-glacial activity)<br />
this single geomorphic event accounted for<br />
more 'work' than all other processes combined<br />
over the last 100 years. Fourth, on July 19 and 20,<br />
1993, an extraordinary flood event took place in<br />
eastern and central Nepal with catastrophic effects:<br />
several districts were hit by floods and hundreds of<br />
landslides, and many people died or became homeless.<br />
Due to the very high level of sedimentation,
MOUNTAINS - A GLOBAL PRIORITY<br />
knowledge and long-term experience relating to the<br />
use of mountain resources. External impacts, such<br />
as mass-tourism and new traffic systems in<br />
industrialised countries, and economic decline and<br />
migration in developing countries, have disturbed<br />
this balance. The following three examples<br />
illustrate how mountain areas under different<br />
climatic-ecological, socio-cultural and economicdemographic<br />
conditions have been confronted<br />
with very different problems and processes on their<br />
development path from the past into the future:<br />
(1) Let us first consider Kilimanjaro, a volcanic<br />
massif in the tropical zone close to the equator:<br />
in addition to its cultural and spiritual significance,<br />
this mountain is the primary source of<br />
much of the water, food, fuel, and building<br />
material for the people of north-central Tanzania.<br />
Unfortunately, the capacity of Mount<br />
Kilimanjaro to continue to provide these vital<br />
products and services is being threatened by<br />
inappropriate and, in some cases, over-exploitation<br />
of many of its natural resources. Much<br />
of the current stress on natural resources is a<br />
result of the dramatic increase in human population<br />
on the slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro: it<br />
has more than tripled during the last forty<br />
years, and the mountain area now has the<br />
highest rural density of any administrative<br />
district in Tanzania (Newmark, 1991).<br />
By contrast with mountain areas in other<br />
climatic zones, the tropical mountains offer<br />
very favourable ecological conditions with<br />
fertile soils, especially on volcanoes, and sufficient<br />
precipitation for agricultural production.<br />
But will it be possible to find a balance<br />
between the new cultural, economic, and ecological<br />
forces?<br />
(2) Our second example is the Middle <strong>Mountain</strong>s<br />
of Nepal in the subtropical climatic zone with<br />
a seasonal monsoon precipitation regime:<br />
parts of Nepal are facing a serious problem in<br />
being unable to maintain soil fertility in<br />
agriculture and forestry. In order to meet the<br />
food, animal feed, and fuelwood demands of<br />
the rapidly growing population, there has been<br />
a gradual transformation from single to multiple<br />
annual crop rotation. This practice has<br />
developed to the point where three crops are<br />
grown annually in all areas of the Middle<br />
<strong>Mountain</strong>s where irrigation water is available.<br />
Soil fertility has changed and soils have become<br />
very acidic. All soil fertility conditions<br />
12<br />
are marginal and put into question the longterm<br />
sustainability of current levels of production<br />
(Schreier et al., 1994). How can a new<br />
balance be struck between ecological conditions<br />
and economic needs? Can the needed<br />
alteration in cropping intensity and the introduction<br />
of nitrogen-fixing trees and crops<br />
constitute sufficient responses for promoting<br />
sustainability?<br />
(3) Third, let us consider the Alps, situated in the<br />
temperate climatic zone, surrounded by highly<br />
urbanised and industrialised areas. Recent<br />
research projects have found that today about<br />
44 percent of the Alpine population is living<br />
in so-called Alpine towns, concentrated in the<br />
main valleys along the traffic routes (pers.<br />
comm. Paul Messerli; Batzing et aI., 1996).<br />
These approximately 150 towns could assume<br />
new functions or new responsibilities in the<br />
future development of Alpine regions. But it is<br />
not yet clear, whether these urban populations<br />
could preserve a special Alpine-oriented cultural<br />
identity, and whether there is the necessary<br />
interest and capacity to create a new<br />
balance between rural and urban areas within<br />
the Alps. Could this represent an opportunity<br />
for new forms of co-operation between mountain<br />
farming and off-farm employment in the<br />
urban areas close by?<br />
These three examples, illustrate three very different<br />
situations on the long and difficult path to sustainable<br />
development. New questions are being raised<br />
everywhere, and new solutions must be found in<br />
connection with all the internal and external forces.<br />
Solutions could include: economic diversification,<br />
appropriate agriculture, adapted forms of tourism,<br />
controlled migration, long-term investment in<br />
infrastructure, improved social conditions, better<br />
education, and more political autonomy.<br />
CONCLUSION<br />
The complexities of the high mountain stage<br />
(Hochgebirge), in terms of the physical processes<br />
that are occurring today and have occurred in the<br />
past, have been reviewed briefly above. It is equally<br />
apparent, however, that inhabited mountain<br />
regions are even more highly complex fields for<br />
study and, therefore, for management. Thus, international<br />
collaborative efforts are needed, including<br />
standardisation of objectives and methods, shared<br />
data banks, and identification of minimum needs.
MOUNTAINS OF THE WORLD<br />
Plate 1.6 The Yulongxue Shan (Jade Dragon Snow <strong>Mountain</strong>s 5596 m) from the black Dragon Park,<br />
Lijang City, NW Yunnan, China. (Photograph:]. D. Ives)<br />
In these closing years of the twentieth century that<br />
are characterised by increasing scarcity of research<br />
funds, this recommendation for expansion of<br />
effort, even for the establishment of a world network<br />
of mountain research activities, may appear<br />
impractical. In this respect it is worth considering<br />
the fate of some highly expensive development<br />
projects in mountain regions. For instance, the<br />
engineer's estimate of the useful life of a large<br />
hydroelectric scheme is often proved to have been<br />
greatly over-optimistic because no attention was<br />
paid to the dynamics of the mountain catchment in<br />
which the infrastructure was placed. Reservoirs<br />
that rapidly fill with sediment should not be contemplated,<br />
let alone constructed; and this occurs so<br />
frequently and at great cost to all concerned because<br />
of the lack of attention paid to geomorphic<br />
and hydrologic conditions. Similarly, poorly<br />
designed roads lead to instability of extensive<br />
mountain slopes and serious downslope damage.<br />
Resource mismanagement in mountain lands in<br />
general, often due to ignorance, or to disregard for<br />
long-term objectives and concentration on the<br />
short term, has the potential for devastating losses<br />
in the surrounding and densely populated lowlands.<br />
The problem is exacerbated by the extreme<br />
unreliability of much of the available data and the<br />
tendency to generalisation instead of careful local<br />
assessment.<br />
The need for special attention being given to the<br />
mountains and their people, therefore, is understandable.<br />
If aid and development must take on a<br />
capitalist concern with immediate returns on investment<br />
then, obviously, it would be rational to<br />
neglect the mountains. But this is the short-term<br />
view. The long-term implications are becoming<br />
increasingly clear and are inextricably entwined in<br />
the growing concern that continuing development<br />
must be sustainable. This overwhelmingly reflects<br />
the remarkable initiatives taken during the Rio<br />
Earth Summit (UNCED). The present volume has<br />
the intention of aiding the clarification of the longterm<br />
viewpoint; this chapter to lay the general<br />
framework for that clarification.<br />
13
MOUNTAINS - A GLOBAL PRIORITY<br />
References<br />
Agenda 21 (1992). A Guide to Agenda 21 - A Global<br />
Partnership, UNCED: Geneva, p. 115<br />
Aulitzky, H. (1974). Endangered Alpine Regions and<br />
Disaster Prevention Measures, Nature and Environment<br />
Series 6, Council of Europe, Strasbourg, p. 103<br />
Batzing, W., Perlik, M. and Deklova, M. (1996).<br />
Urbanization and depopulation in the Alps (with 3<br />
colored rnaps). <strong>Mountain</strong> Research and Development,<br />
16(4): 335-50<br />
Barsch, D. (ed.) (1984). High <strong>Mountain</strong> Research.<br />
Special issue of <strong>Mountain</strong> Research and Development,<br />
4 (4): 286-374<br />
Bromme, T. (1851). Atlas zu Alexander von Humboldt.<br />
Kosmos: Stuttgart<br />
Dow, V., Kienholz, H., Plam, M. and Ives, ]. D.<br />
(1981). <strong>Mountain</strong> hazards mapping: Development of<br />
a prototype combined hazards map, Monarch Lake<br />
Quadrangle, Colorado, USA (with fold-in map).<br />
<strong>Mountain</strong> Research and Development, 1(1): 55-64<br />
Grotzbach, E. F. (1984). Mobility of labour in high<br />
mountains and the socio-economic integration of peripheral<br />
areas. <strong>Mountain</strong> Research and Development,<br />
4 (3): 229-35<br />
Grotzbach, E. F. (1988). High <strong>Mountain</strong>s as Human<br />
Habitat. In Allan, N.]. R., Knapp, G. W. and Stadel,<br />
C. (eds.) Human Impact on <strong>Mountain</strong>s. Rowman and<br />
Littlefield: Totowa, N], pp. 24-35<br />
Gerrard, A.]. (1990). <strong>Mountain</strong> Environments: An<br />
examination ofthe physical geography ofmountains.<br />
MIT Press: Cambridge, MA, p. 317<br />
Heuberger, H., Masch, L., Preuss, E. and Schroecher,<br />
A. (1984). Quaternary Landslides and Rock Fusion in<br />
Central Nepal and in the Tyrolean Alps. <strong>Mountain</strong><br />
Research and Development, 4 (4): 345-62<br />
Heuberger, H. and Ives,]. D. (eds.) (1994). <strong>Mountain</strong><br />
Hazards Geomorphology. Special issue of <strong>Mountain</strong><br />
Research and Development, 14 (4): 271-363<br />
Ives, ]. D. (1970). Himalayan Highway. Canadian<br />
Geographical Journal, 80: 26-31<br />
Ives, ]. D. (1989). <strong>Mountain</strong> Environments. In<br />
Marini-Bettolo, G. B. (ed.) A Modern Approach to the<br />
Protection of the Environment. Citra del Vaticano:<br />
14<br />
Pontificiae Academiae Scientiarum Scripta Varia,<br />
pp.289-345<br />
Ives,]. D. and Messerli, B. (1981). <strong>Mountain</strong> hazards<br />
mapping in Nepal: Introduction to an applied mountain<br />
research project. <strong>Mountain</strong> Research and<br />
Development, 1 (3/4): 223-30<br />
Ives, ]. D. and Messerli, B. (1989). The Himalayan<br />
Dilemma: Reconciling Development and Conservation.<br />
Routledge: London and New York, p. 295<br />
Kienholz, H., Hafner, H., Schneider, G. and Tamrakar,<br />
R. (1983). <strong>Mountain</strong> hazards mapping in<br />
Nepal's Middle <strong>Mountain</strong>s, with maps of land use and<br />
geomorphic damages (Kathmandu-Kakani area).<br />
<strong>Mountain</strong> Research and Development, 3 (3): 195-220<br />
Kreutzrnann, H. (1995). Globalization, spatial integration,<br />
and sustainable development in northern<br />
Pakistan. <strong>Mountain</strong> Research and Development, 15<br />
(3): 213-27<br />
Lauer, W. (1993). Human development and environment<br />
in the Andes: A geoecological overview. <strong>Mountain</strong><br />
Research and Development, 13 (2): 157-66<br />
Liu, Dong-sheng and Sun, Honglie (eds.) (1981). Geological<br />
and Ecological Studies of Qinghai-Xizang<br />
Plateau. Science Press, Gordon and Breach, Science<br />
Publishers Inc.: Beijing and New York, 2 vols., p. 2138<br />
Messerli, B., et al. (1993). Climate change and natural<br />
resource dynamics of the Atacama Altiplano during<br />
the last 18,000 years: A preliminary synthesis. <strong>Mountain</strong><br />
Research and Development, 13 (2): 117-27<br />
<strong>Mountain</strong> Agenda (1997). <strong>Mountain</strong>s of the World:<br />
Challenges for the 21st Century. Geographical Institute<br />
University of Bern: Bern, p. 36<br />
Murra, ]. V. (1972). El 'vertical control' de un<br />
maximo de pisos ecologicos en la economia de<br />
las sociedades Andinas. In Ortiz de Zuniga, 1. (ed.),<br />
Visita de la Provincia de Leon de Huanuco (1562).<br />
Torno 2, Universidad Hermilio Valdizan: Huanuco,<br />
pp.429-76<br />
Newmark W. D. (ed.) (1991). The Conservation of<br />
Mount Kilimanjaro. IUCN Tropical Forest Programme:<br />
Gland and Cambridge<br />
Patzelt, G. (ed.) (1983). Die Berg- und Gletscberstiirze<br />
von Huascaran, Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Innsbruck,<br />
Hochgebirgsforschung, no. 6, p. 110
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24<br />
Multidimensional (Climatic,<br />
Biodiversity, Socioeconomic),<br />
Changes in Land Use in the<br />
Vilcanota Watershed, Peru<br />
Stephan Halloy, Anton Seimon, Karina Yager,<br />
and Alfredo Tupayachi<br />
INTRODUCTION<br />
To investigate the dynamic changes affecting<br />
biodiversity across the vertical gradient of the<br />
Vilcanota watershed in Peru, we utilize the<br />
major vertical profile of the Vilcanota–Urubamba<br />
Valley (the Sacred Valley of the<br />
Incas at its center). The area combines features<br />
of interest for our research, such as a tropical<br />
location in a major biodiversity hotspot, which<br />
has also been a cultural vortex with thousands<br />
of years of occupation and development of<br />
resilient sustainable land uses; the point of origin<br />
of many indigenous agricultural staples,<br />
some of which are now important agricultural<br />
crops at a global level; and a unique annually<br />
resolved climatic record of more than 500 years<br />
in the Quelccaya ice cap to the southeast of the<br />
watershed (Thompson et al. 1985; Seimon and<br />
Halloy, this volume). As it descends, the Vilcanota–Urubamba<br />
changes its cross section (Figure<br />
24.1), topography, and mesoclimates, traversing<br />
an extreme range of climates and<br />
environments. These have been described and<br />
classified by many researchers (e.g. Brisseau,<br />
1981; Galiano Sánchez, et al., 1995; Gentry,<br />
1993; Sibille, 1997). The watershed starts in the<br />
permanent snow and glaciers of the steep peaks<br />
above 6300 m (Ausangate), where mean temperatures<br />
are below 0°C. We recently recorded<br />
(in 2002) the highest vascular plants at 5510 m,<br />
close behind the retreating glaciers in this area.<br />
High-<strong>Andean</strong> vegetation develops rapidly down<br />
from this level. Around 4900 m, llama and<br />
alpaca grazing signal the rising level of human<br />
occupation. The highest human occupation<br />
found is the house of Pedro Godofredo above<br />
Murmurani, at ~5050 m.<br />
The undulating altiplano between 4900 and<br />
4200 m gives way to steep incised valleys as<br />
the rivers cut their way down to the Amazon.<br />
As in the altiplano, human occupation has<br />
developed in these valleys over the centuries,<br />
cultivating the valley floors and terracing the<br />
steep valley slopes to expand production areas.<br />
Apart from the valley topography and gradual<br />
increase in temperature, an important environmental<br />
factor is the drying of the climate<br />
towards the valley floors as a climatic effect of<br />
valley wind circulation (Troll, 1968). About 350<br />
km down from its source, the valley finally<br />
opens into the foothills of the Andes and the<br />
Amazonian lowland forests and savannahs,<br />
where mean annual temperatures are around 23<br />
to 29°C, and annual rainfall is around 1700 to<br />
2000 mm. Due to the strong orographic gradients,<br />
all climate parameters vary in short distances.<br />
For example, rainfall slightly to the<br />
southeast of the Urubamba at San Gabán and<br />
Quince Mil (600 m) reaches 3000 to 6000 mm<br />
per year.<br />
Data on species richness will be reviewed,<br />
and we will examine information on present<br />
impacts affecting the natural and managed<br />
biodiversity and the manner in which the latter<br />
is distributed. Given the region’s rich biodiver-<br />
321
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322<br />
Altitude (m)<br />
7000<br />
6000<br />
5000<br />
4000<br />
3000<br />
2000<br />
1000<br />
0 0 50 100 150<br />
sity and the reported past levels of prosperity<br />
at a time (>500 years BP) when resource use<br />
has been claimed to be more sustainable in the<br />
long term, the question that comes to the fore<br />
is: Why human populations now suffer extreme<br />
poverty and environments undergo rapid degradation?<br />
We examine the temporal dynamics of<br />
various components in this three-dimensional<br />
space and explore possible drivers in view of<br />
human pressures and climate change. Several<br />
questions that arise are: Is loss of biodiversity<br />
through land use change a consequence of poverty?<br />
Is poverty related to a failure to incorporate<br />
traditional biodiversity stewardship into<br />
modern agricultural systems? Do market pressures<br />
tend to decrease the use of traditional<br />
agricultural management (e.g. Swinton and<br />
Quiroz, 2003; Halloy et al., 2004)?<br />
METHODS<br />
We surveyed, collated, and calculated the information<br />
and literature on land use and biodiversity<br />
for the Vilcanota–Urubamba watershed.<br />
Political (and hence, census) boundaries are not<br />
drawn along watershed boundaries, so we<br />
selected 33 representative districts along the<br />
Land Use Change and <strong>Mountain</strong> Biodiversity<br />
200<br />
km from source<br />
250 300 350 400<br />
FIGURE 24.1 Topographic profile of the Vilcanota Valley, lengthwise from SSE to NNW with five cross<br />
sections approximately W–E to show the changing valley configuration. The Vilcanota is represented by the<br />
altitudes of 33 district capitals (dots), some of which are located away from the valley center, hence the higher<br />
points. Four additional points complete the profile: village of Santa Barbara (4000 m), outlet of Sibinacocha<br />
Lake (4850 m), Rititica summit (5250 m), and the summit of Vizcachani (near the source of the Vilcanota<br />
above 6200 m). The five cross sections (full lines) are taken at the level of the capitals (from left to right)<br />
Sicuani, Pisac-Cusco, Ollantaytambo, Machupicchu, and Quellouno.<br />
main axis of the valley. To approach biodiversity<br />
at this regional scale, we use proxies (which<br />
are more or less relevant and debatable, and<br />
provide insights into the system) such as percentages<br />
of land use and rates of change (e.g.<br />
deforestation, cultivated crops, and grazing),<br />
each of which has its own impacts on biodiversity.<br />
Cultivated area of each species of crops<br />
was collated from all districts, a necessary<br />
caveat being that census data are sensitive to<br />
human reporting and data-gathering techniques.<br />
Many smaller crops and crop areas are not<br />
reported, thus biasing the data toward larger<br />
areas and crops. However, this is not unlike the<br />
bias that occurs in any biodiversity study toward<br />
larger, more abundant, and more visible species.<br />
Table 24.1 shows the seven provinces of the<br />
Cusco Department, along with some portions<br />
in the Vilcanota Valley. Further details on the<br />
33 districts are in Appendix I. Cusco Department<br />
has a total area of 71,987 km2,<br />
slightly<br />
larger than the island of Tierra del Fuego. The<br />
area of the 33 districts studied here is 29,337<br />
km2,<br />
or almost half of the department.<br />
Diversity was evaluated as simple species<br />
richness, following the Shannon–Weaver information<br />
index of diversity ( H = ln , where<br />
p<br />
i<br />
p<br />
i
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Climatic, Biodiversity & Socio-Economic Changes in Land Use in the Vilcanota Watershed, Peru<br />
TABLE 24.1<br />
Provinces of the Cusco Department with districts used in this study, together with their<br />
population and area<br />
Population,<br />
Density (inhabitants<br />
Province Capital Projection 2002 Area (km2)<br />
km-2)<br />
Total departments Cusco 1,208,689 71,987 16.8<br />
Acomayo Acomayo 34,652 948.22 36.5<br />
Calca Calca 65,330 4,414 14.8<br />
Canchis Sicuani 107,012 3,999 26.8<br />
Cusco Cusco 319,422 617 517.7<br />
La Convención Quillabamba 194,395 30,062 6.5<br />
Quispicanchi Urcos 89,264 7,565 11.8<br />
Urubamba Urubamba 56,352 1,439 39.1<br />
Source: From the 1993-1994 Census, Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática, Peru, (INEI 2003).<br />
pi<br />
= (abundance of species i)/total abundance;<br />
[Shannon and Weaver, 1949]), and as frequency<br />
distributions (Williams, 1964).<br />
We integrate this study with ongoing<br />
research at the regional altitudinal limits of life<br />
in the Lake Sibinacocha area. As part of a global<br />
network to monitor the effects of global change<br />
on biodiversity, we established in 2002 a Global<br />
Research Initiative in Alpine Environments<br />
(GLORIA) site at 5250 m. This follows a standardized<br />
methodology of inventories and temperature<br />
measurements for long-term comparisons<br />
(Pauli et al., 2002) and is logged as a<br />
Global Terrestrial Observation Site (Halloy and<br />
Tupayachi, 2004).<br />
VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF<br />
DIVERSITY<br />
Braun et al. (2002) calculated the number of<br />
species of seed plants in an altitudinal profile<br />
of Peru from Brako and Zarucchi (1993) (Figure<br />
24.2). They found that the number of species<br />
in the Andes above 500 m is more than the<br />
total number of Amazonian species in Peru. At<br />
the highest levels, over 250 species of seed<br />
plants are recorded above 4500 m for the whole<br />
of Peru. At the eastern headwaters of the Vilcanota,<br />
at the Rititica GLORIA site, we found<br />
24 vascular plants and 28 nonvascular plants<br />
(bryophytes and lichens) in a 274-m2<br />
sampling<br />
area at 5250 m in midwinter 2002. Higher up,<br />
323<br />
flowering plants were found to 5510 m, right<br />
up to the receding ice cliff edge above Rititica.<br />
Gentry (1993) noted that although 43% of<br />
Peruvian seed plant species are from lowland<br />
Amazonia, 34% grow in lower-<strong>Andean</strong> forests<br />
between 500 and 1500 m, and a remarkable<br />
57% are recorded from <strong>Andean</strong> cloud forests.<br />
The high-<strong>Andean</strong> region above 3500 m contains<br />
approximately 14% of the Peruvian flora.<br />
LAND<br />
USE<br />
IMPACT<br />
Land-based agriculture contributes 25.4% of<br />
the gross domestic product (GDP) and provides<br />
47.5% of employment in the Cusco Department<br />
(MAP, 2003). The proportion of total land area<br />
that is dedicated to cultivation averages 8% for<br />
the whole valley, ranging from less than 1% for<br />
Pitumarca and Checacupe districts (limiting<br />
ecological conditions near the altitudinal limits<br />
of cultivation) to 33% for Quellouno (recent<br />
major increase in export crops, principally coffee).<br />
Grazing affects almost all lands accessible<br />
to stock within the valley. Based on a generous<br />
assumption (with present management prac-<br />
tices) of one stock unit<br />
1<br />
per hectare, and calcu-<br />
lating from all stock censused in the six valley<br />
provinces (Sibille, 1997), we obtain that most<br />
1 Stock unit is equivalent to a 45 kg ewe suckling a lamb<br />
or a 55 kg pregnant ewe. This amounts to around 0.02 stock<br />
units per 1 kg of live weight; 1 stock unit requires 520 kg<br />
of dry matter of feed per year.
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324<br />
Altitude (m) (max level)<br />
6000<br />
5000<br />
4000<br />
3000<br />
2000<br />
1000<br />
0<br />
1 10 100<br />
n species seed plants<br />
provinces carry stock requiring 60% (Calca,<br />
Quispicanchi) to 150% (Canchis) and 190%<br />
(Cusco) of their total land area. Only La Convención<br />
requires a minor 3.5% of its land area<br />
to feed existing stock. Because only a certain<br />
fraction of their total land area is suitable for<br />
natural pastures (e.g. 64% for Canchis, 40% for<br />
Cusco, and less than 24% for the remaining<br />
provinces, INEI in MAP [2003]), the overstocking<br />
becomes even more notorious. These are<br />
indications of unsustainable levels of overgrazing<br />
that exceed the carrying capacity of the<br />
land. Fallow and harvested lands also fulfill a<br />
role in providing feed for grazing stock, but this<br />
is not quantified in censuses.<br />
Although some level of grazing can<br />
enhance biodiversity by reducing competition<br />
(Fowler 2002), intense overgrazing as suggested<br />
by these data leads to depletion of palatable<br />
species, reduction of ground cover, and<br />
erosion (Duncan et al., 2001). Depending on<br />
management, livestock, as do cultivated plants,<br />
Land Use Change and <strong>Mountain</strong> Biodiversity<br />
1000 10000<br />
FIGURE 24.2 Number of seed plants at each altitudinal level in Peru, combined from Braun.<br />
will carry with it a variety of commensal/accompanying<br />
species including their parasites,<br />
as well as transport seed plants that are<br />
abundant near their main grazing areas. A 2001<br />
survey around Lake Sibinacocha found that<br />
rodent diversity increased around llama and<br />
alpaca corrals at an altitude of 4900 m as an<br />
effect of anthropogenic enhancement.<br />
The steep terrain of most of the central valley<br />
implies high erosion risk: 85% of areas cultivated<br />
in the higher areas (310,000 ha) are on<br />
steep to moderately steep slopes. They are susceptible<br />
to erosion but most are not subject to<br />
any soil protection practices at this time (MAP,<br />
2003), unlike ancient mitigation practices of<br />
terracing, irrigation, managing soil organic<br />
matter, etc.<br />
Deforestation for agricultural land and firewood<br />
is claiming large areas of the central valley.<br />
For the center of the Valle Sagrado, Galiano<br />
Sánchez et al. (1995) quote deforestations levels<br />
of 90% of original forests for valley bottom
3523_book.fm Page 325 Thursday, September 29, 2005 10:38 AM<br />
Climatic, Biodiversity & Socio-Economic Changes in Land Use in the Vilcanota Watershed, Peru<br />
forests (2700 to 3300 m), 60% for mixed forests<br />
of the slopes (3300 to 3700 m), and 20% of the<br />
Polylepis forests from 3700 to 4800 m. The<br />
Ministerio de Agricultura (MAP, 2003) estimated<br />
that 50% of the best forests of the department<br />
were cut down by 1995, including 15%<br />
of the humid lowland forest, more of which is<br />
being cut at a rate of 20,000 ha per year. Land<br />
use conversion has opened up 630,000 ha in the<br />
22 years from 1972 to 1994, representing an<br />
increase of 29.5%.<br />
Introduced species constitute an insufficiently<br />
evaluated risk in the area. Weeds of temperate<br />
regions are widespread in the middle<br />
reaches of the valley, although many weeds in<br />
turn have their uses (see subsection titled Land<br />
Use Impact). Irreversible changes are being<br />
mediated by exotic species: large areas are<br />
reforested with eucalyptus, bringing considerable<br />
changes to the landscape and ecosystem,<br />
including scenic aspects, soils, erosion, availability<br />
of firewood, and capability of native species<br />
(including animals and medicinal plants)<br />
to survive under their canopy. Other invasive<br />
species that have probably had a major impact<br />
in this area include trout, widely introduced for<br />
subsistence and recreational fishing.<br />
Mining at high altitudes, as well as the<br />
impact of large oil deposits found in lowlands<br />
(Camisea, Sibille, 1997), provide an incentive<br />
and a subsidy to develop roads and infrastructure<br />
that then allow penetration into vast new<br />
areas, in addition to their direct impacts on<br />
devegetation and toxic wastes.<br />
Factors slowing the expansion of land use<br />
impacts include difficult access and legislation.<br />
Although steepness and lack of roads has provided<br />
some protection to more remote parts of<br />
the valley, the only formally protected area in<br />
the Vilcanota Valley is the Santuario Histórico<br />
de Machu Picchu in the Province of Urubamba.<br />
With 32,592 ha, it represents almost 23% of the<br />
area of that province but only 1% of the area<br />
of the 33 districts considered in this study. For<br />
comparison, in its land use capability classification,<br />
INRENA (2000; in MAP 2003) considers<br />
that 66% of Departmental lands should be<br />
classified as protection land, with only 33%<br />
suitable for agriculture (3% arable, 0.4% permanent<br />
crops, 14% suitable for forestry plantations,<br />
and 16% suitable for rangeland manage-<br />
325<br />
ment). Yet in the 1994 census of the 33 districts<br />
of the Vilcanota, arable and permanent crops<br />
alone already cover 8% of the land area, implying<br />
that expansion is unsustainable.<br />
RESOURCE DISTRIBUTION IN<br />
HUMAN POPULATIONS<br />
The distribution of economic resources can<br />
determine the magnitude and type of land use<br />
and its effect on biodiversity. Resource distribution<br />
is explored from the point of view of<br />
land size distribution, distribution of the abundance<br />
of crops, and distribution of wealth<br />
(social indicators of poverty).<br />
CULTIVATED<br />
DIVERSITY<br />
LAND<br />
DISTRIBUTION<br />
AND<br />
The distribution of access to productive land<br />
depends on the distribution of cultivated parcel<br />
sizes. This overlooks the issue of spatial distribution<br />
but is, nevertheless, a large-scale proxy<br />
for overall distribution. Plots around a peasant<br />
community tend to be of relatively small (typically,<br />
much less than 0.5 ha) and even sizes<br />
(e.g. for similar cultural landscapes in Peru and<br />
Bolivia, see Liberman Cruz, 1987; Pietilä and<br />
Jokela, 1988). These areas close to villages produce<br />
the mainstay of daily sustenance and hold<br />
the highest crop and native plant diversity (Zimmerer,<br />
1997; Ramirez, 2002). In the 17 higher<br />
districts (>3000 m, more highly populated) of<br />
the Cusco Department, Peru, 93% of properties<br />
are less than 5 ha, the mean parcel size is 0.37<br />
ha, and the average cultivated area per person<br />
in the overall population is 0.14 ha (INEI,<br />
2003). The distribution of plot sizes controlled<br />
by a single family tends to a classic lognormal<br />
pattern with occasional large outliers, indicating<br />
an imbalance (Halloy et al., 2004). Larger<br />
cultivated areas are developed further from<br />
houses and are hence tied to the availability of<br />
transportation and farm machinery. In the two<br />
lower, more market-oriented districts (~650 m),<br />
only 22% of properties are less than 5 ha, the<br />
mean property size is 1.3 ha, and the cultivated<br />
area per person is 0.74 ha.<br />
Larger plot sizes are driven mainly by largescale<br />
cultivation of commercial crops (e.g. coffee<br />
and cocoa in lowlands; maize, wheat,
3523_book.fm Page 326 Thursday, September 29, 2005 10:38 AM<br />
326<br />
ulluco,<br />
and potato in highlands). Much larger<br />
cultivated sizes in tropical lowlands are an<br />
effect of dynamic colonial expansion into the<br />
lowlands and are contrary to ecological expectations<br />
(i.e. higher potential yields mean that<br />
smaller plots are sufficient for equivalent<br />
yields). Older, more established societies tend<br />
to produce lognormal distributions of the cultivated<br />
areas of crops (e.g. Halloy, 1994; Halloy,<br />
1999), whereas younger colonizing societies<br />
have distributions that depart strongly from the<br />
lognormal. In the Vilcanota, we can see this, in<br />
particular, in the lowering of diversity index ( H)<br />
values in La Convención (below 1.8), despite<br />
high species numbers (60 to 75) (Figure 24.3).<br />
Many central and highland areas, despite species<br />
numbers well below 50, maintain a relatively<br />
high diversity ( H between 1.6 and 2.4),<br />
thanks to a more even species distribution.<br />
However, some highland areas have very low<br />
diversity where crop cultivation becomes ecologically<br />
marginal.<br />
H diversity cultivated plants<br />
2.6<br />
2.4<br />
2.2<br />
2<br />
1.8<br />
1.6<br />
1.4<br />
1.2<br />
1<br />
0.8 0 100 200<br />
km from source<br />
Land Use Change and <strong>Mountain</strong> Biodiversity<br />
WEALTH<br />
DISTRIBUTION<br />
AND NUTRITION<br />
Despite a wealth of biodiversity and productive<br />
land, the 1993 census recorded that 60% of<br />
children were chronically malnourished and<br />
infant mortality was 91.8 per thousand for the<br />
Cusco Department (Table 24.2).<br />
Fecundity (number of children per woman)<br />
typically declines with development. The more<br />
highly developed Cusco Province shows a rating<br />
of 2.8, but poorer and less educated provinces<br />
show much higher values (e.g. Quispicanchi<br />
5.8, Urubamba 5.0; Sibille [1997]. In a<br />
paradox that is repeated around the world, the<br />
areas richest in cultivated plants are the poorest<br />
and most malnourished. However, we note that<br />
this is not a linear relation, as improved quality<br />
of life was found at even higher diversity in<br />
traditionally cultivated areas (Halloy et al.<br />
2004).<br />
300 400<br />
FIGURE 24.3 Shannon–Weaver index of diversity for cultivated plants across 33 districts of the Vilcanota<br />
Valley.
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Climatic, Biodiversity & Socio-Economic Changes in Land Use in the Vilcanota Watershed, Peru<br />
TABLE 24.2<br />
Social indicators vs. cultivated plant diversity in some Cusco Provinces, 1993 census<br />
Area Cusco Department Canchis Province Calca Province Cusco Province<br />
Chronically<br />
malnourished children<br />
(%)<br />
60.0 59.2 65.5 42.0<br />
Infant mortality rate per<br />
1000<br />
91.8 114.2 86.7 47.7<br />
Number of species of<br />
cultivated plants per<br />
1000 inhabitants<br />
3.8 3.6 3.8 0.6<br />
Source: 2003 Censos. INEI Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (Peru). In: http://www.inei.gob.pe.<br />
SPECIES<br />
CULTIVATED<br />
RICHNESS<br />
AND<br />
SPECIES<br />
DISTRIBUTION<br />
OF<br />
A total of 157 categories of cultivated plants<br />
were recorded in the 1993 agricultural census.<br />
Several census categories represent mixed bags<br />
of species in which there may be only one or<br />
several species ( Vergel Hortícola Plátano [vegetable<br />
plots planted with bananas], Vergel Frutí-<br />
cola<br />
[fruit orchards],<br />
Flores<br />
[flowers], etc.;<br />
Table 24.3). Hence, estimates of species richness<br />
based on the census are underestimates.<br />
This species richness is not fixed in time; the<br />
actual varieties and species that are grown are<br />
continuously changing with a rapid turnover<br />
rate (e.g. Halloy, 1999; Ramirez, 2002).<br />
Census data of cultivated crops represents<br />
only a fraction of total cultivated plants. For<br />
example, for the total area above 3500 m, the<br />
INEI 1993 census data records 52 species of<br />
cultivated plants in a total of 6679 ha. However,<br />
in a small area of 686 ha above 3500 m in Calca<br />
Province, Ramirez (2002) recorded 76 species.<br />
In addition, a large number of adventive or<br />
“weedy” species accompany cultivation, and<br />
additional native species “tolerate” and persist<br />
in cultivated areas along road edges, hedges,<br />
gullies, etc. Many such species are also used by<br />
local populations (Rapoport et al. 1998). For<br />
example, Vieyra-Odilon and Vibrans (2001)<br />
report 74 weed species found in maize fields in<br />
Mexico that were useful as forage, potherb,<br />
medicinal, or ornamental plants. In the high<br />
327<br />
Andes of neighboring Bolivia, Hensen (1992)<br />
reports the use of 204 species of plants in the<br />
community of Chorojo, Cochabamba, from<br />
3500 to 3800 m, most with forage and medicinal<br />
uses. Of these, 24 species were used as<br />
food. In every relevé in fallow terrain near La<br />
Paz, de Morales (1988) reports that 6 to 12<br />
weedy species are found. Detailed recordings<br />
of plant use in the Andes are available in a range<br />
of publications (e.g. Brücher, 1989; NRS, 1989;<br />
Zimmerer, 1997).<br />
Sibille (1997) (following INEI, 1986)<br />
quotes 193 plant products (including 142 arable<br />
crops, 37 permanent crops, and 14 grasses) for<br />
the whole of Cusco Department, whereas<br />
Galiano Sánchez et al. (1995) quote 96 useful<br />
species (including this time forestry species)<br />
and 685 vascular plant species in a 50 km<br />
2<br />
area<br />
of the Sacred Valley, ranging from 2715 to 5300<br />
m. They also recorded 40 nonvascular cryptogams.<br />
The present total of 157 cultivated species<br />
in the Vilcanota Valley and 193 for the whole<br />
Cusco Department can be compared to 160 species<br />
claimed to have been commonly used for<br />
food, medicine, and other purposes in precolonial<br />
times for Peru (Tapia and Torre, 2003).<br />
It is of some concern for conservation that<br />
most of the rarest cultivated plants are natives,<br />
whereas many of the common species are<br />
exotic.
AU: What is<br />
this?<br />
3523_book.fm Page 328 Thursday, September 29, 2005 10:38 AM<br />
328<br />
TEMPORAL DYNAMICS<br />
HISTORICAL<br />
PERSPECTIVE<br />
It is interesting to compare the present situation<br />
with that recorded by the Spaniards in the early<br />
1500s. The area that was then the center of the<br />
Inca dominions was praised by chroniclers as<br />
a place where “no one ever went hungry” and<br />
where “purposely made storage areas were<br />
overflowing with vegetables and roots to feed<br />
the people and also herbs” (Peró Sancho quoted<br />
in Murra, 1975).<br />
Indeed, traditional land use management<br />
practices were able to support the livelihoods<br />
of households and communities for several millennia<br />
and were sufficient for the rise of complex<br />
civilizations centuries prior to Spanish<br />
occupation. The ample increase in production<br />
under the Inca empire may have, in part,<br />
depended on their careful environmental husbandry<br />
(including tactics of soil conservation,<br />
water management and irrigation, management<br />
Land Use Change and <strong>Mountain</strong> Biodiversity<br />
TABLE 24.3<br />
Most Commonly Cultivated Plants over 33 Districts according to 1993 Agricultural<br />
Census<br />
Census Name<br />
Species/Variety<br />
English Name Scientific Name Area (ha) Number of Districts<br />
Café or cafeto Coffee<br />
Coffea arabica<br />
25,511 7<br />
Maiz amiláceo Starch maize Zea mays<br />
11,375 33<br />
Papa Potato<br />
Solanum tuberosum<br />
8,132 33<br />
Cacao Cocoa<br />
Theobroma cacao<br />
6,581 7<br />
Achiote<br />
Annatto Bixa orellana<br />
4,462 6<br />
Coca Coca<br />
Erythroxylum coca<br />
3,705 8<br />
Haba Broad bean<br />
Vicia faba<br />
3,282 30<br />
Yuca Cassava<br />
Manihot esculenta<br />
3,003 8<br />
Cebada grano Barley grain Hordeum vulgare<br />
2,428 27<br />
Trigo Wheat<br />
Triticum aestivum<br />
2,029 29<br />
Vergel<br />
Vegetable<br />
Multispecies 1,006 32<br />
hortícola–plátano garden–banana<br />
Maiz amarillo Yellow maize Zea mays<br />
1,916 30<br />
Vergel frutícola Fruit orchard Multispecies 1,435 29<br />
Arveja (alverjón) Green pea<br />
Pisum sativum<br />
529 29<br />
Olluco Ulluco<br />
Ullucus tuberosus<br />
1,466 29<br />
Oca Oca, NZ yam Oxalis tuberosa<br />
100 28<br />
Note:<br />
The two right columns show total area cultivated (first ten are the species with largest cultivated areas) and number<br />
of districts where the crop is recorded (following six are species with high number of districts but lower area).<br />
Source:<br />
2003 Censos.<br />
Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (Peru). In: http://www.inei.gob.pe.<br />
of domesticated plant and animal diversity, and<br />
protection of natural vegetation and fauna)<br />
(Halloy et al., 2004).<br />
It is possible that habitat degradation<br />
induced by ancient hunter–gatherers and pastoral<br />
nomads may have contributed — together<br />
with population increase, extended annual<br />
occupation, rise of social stratification, and the<br />
need to increase production for both social and<br />
livelihood needs — to the development of civilizations<br />
incorporating the conservation measures<br />
in force at the time of arrival of the Spanish<br />
(Kessler, 1998).<br />
Despite such measures, it seems likely that<br />
considerable destruction of the high-altitude<br />
Polylepis<br />
forests took place long before the<br />
arrival of the conquistadores in 1532 (Gade,<br />
1999; Kessler et al., 1998). Before the arrival<br />
of the Spanish, the <strong>Andean</strong> landscape had<br />
already experienced significant levels of transformation<br />
and degradation. Gade estimates that<br />
some 65% of the natural forest had been
3523_book.fm Page 329 Thursday, September 29, 2005 10:38 AM<br />
Climatic, Biodiversity & Socio-Economic Changes in Land Use in the Vilcanota Watershed, Peru<br />
depleted before the Spanish arrival, shortly after<br />
which 90% became depleted (Gade 1999). The<br />
Spanish conquest resulted in increasing deforestation<br />
rates as they consumed large amounts<br />
of wood for constructions and the smelting of<br />
ores in mining activities.<br />
Upon arrival, the Spanish implemented<br />
agroforestry measures in an attempt to compensate<br />
for excessive consumption levels. Unfortunately,<br />
such measures did not suffice, and the<br />
landscape became mostly depleted of trees.<br />
After the decimation of the indigenous population<br />
in the 16th century, a majority of the rural<br />
landscape was abandoned. Denevan argues that<br />
much of the natural landscape was able to<br />
recover as a result of the population decline and<br />
may have contributed to the early 19th-century<br />
misconceptions of the “pristine” landscape<br />
(Denevan, 1992). However, the introduction of<br />
nonnative species also became commonplace.<br />
The Spanish experimented early with the nonnative<br />
poplar and capuli trees (Gade 1975), but<br />
the most influential species to be introduced in<br />
the late 19th century with unprecedented fruition<br />
was Eucalyptus globulus.<br />
CLIMATE<br />
CHANGE<br />
Given the context of intense human and environmental<br />
heterogeneity and fluctuations over<br />
time, encountering a signal of climate change<br />
effects is not a simple matter (e.g. see meta<br />
analyses as in Parmesan and Yohe (2003), but<br />
such an approach is still to be realized in Peru).<br />
However, there are some observations pointing<br />
towards vegetation and land use advancing<br />
towards higher altitudes in recent decades.<br />
Toward the middle of the last century, Troll<br />
(1968) observed that in the Central Andes of<br />
Peru and Bolivia, maize could be grown up to<br />
3500 m, whereas tuberiferous plants (potato,<br />
oca,<br />
isaño,<br />
and ulluco)<br />
and introduced wheat<br />
and barley reached their upper limit at 4100 m.<br />
Mitchell (1976), followed by Price (1981), also<br />
placed the altitudinal limit of cropping at 4100<br />
m. Higher up, the grasslands were grazed by<br />
llamas, alpacas, and wild vicuñas. Uninterrupted<br />
plant cover ended at around 4700 m,<br />
where nightly frosts began. The climatic snowline<br />
was indicated at 5300 m.<br />
329<br />
Interpretation of such reports is problematic,<br />
given their nonspecificity in terms of location<br />
or dates, as well as issues of time lag<br />
between observations and publication. However,<br />
these and other authors had extensive<br />
experience in geography, and it is unlikely that<br />
their observations would be far off the mark.<br />
More recently, Tapia and Torre (2003) quote<br />
several crops grown up to 4000 m, two species<br />
grown up to 4100 m (maca and kañiwa), and<br />
one (Papa amarga: Solanum juzepczukii)<br />
grown<br />
up to 4200 m. Potato cultivation today in the<br />
Vilcanota headwaters occasionally reaches<br />
4580 m (Chillca, our observations in 2004).<br />
Recent attempts to cultivate oats and potato<br />
have even been made at 5050 m above Murmurarni,<br />
although these were unsuccessful.<br />
Interestingly, archaeological remains show<br />
that these and higher areas were cultivated in the<br />
more remote past. Archaeological remains of cultivation<br />
higher than today have also been noted<br />
in the Cordillera Blanca (Cardich, 1985). In 1985,<br />
Cardich also observed that since he began making<br />
observations, “the limit of cultivation has been<br />
moving upward and crops are now grown at<br />
higher elevations than during previous decades.<br />
Simultaneously, there has been an accelerated<br />
recession of glaciers in the high cordilleras, as<br />
well as disappearance of snow and consequent<br />
opening of passes connecting the Pacific and<br />
Atlantic slopes.” In summary, 2002 cultivation<br />
levels are higher than in the past decades and<br />
recent centuries, but still not as high as maximum<br />
levels reached at some time in the past, presumably<br />
before the Little Ice Age. The first post–Little<br />
Ice Age settlers in the Sibinacocha area moved<br />
into the valley in 1906 (Pedro Godofredo, personal<br />
communication, 2003). Today, there are a<br />
number of corrals and settlements.<br />
POPULATION<br />
AND LAND<br />
USE<br />
An indication of the growing population impact<br />
is its increasing concentration in urban centers,<br />
from 25% of the department’s population in<br />
1940 to 46.5% in the 1993 census (Figure 24.4).<br />
For the whole Department, infant mortality has<br />
declined from 149 per 1000 births in 1979 to<br />
1980 to 101 in 1990 to 1991 (Sibille, 1997).<br />
Because of political–economic change, there is<br />
also a strong net outmigration, principally
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330<br />
towards centers offering employment and natural<br />
resources (Lima, Arequipa, and Madre de<br />
Dios). Emigration rates are rapidly increasing.<br />
From 8% of the total Departmental population<br />
in 1961, emigration climbed to 16% in 1972,<br />
18% in 1981, and 21% in 1993 (Sibille, 1997).<br />
Emigration from rural areas contributes to<br />
important land use changes with mixed impacts<br />
on biodiversity: lack of maintenance of terraces<br />
and irrigation leading to erosion, lack of control<br />
of animals leading to grazing and overgrazing,<br />
lack of cultivation leading to weedy successional<br />
phases, then back to vegetation that is<br />
more diverse, etc.<br />
Sibille (1997) also indicates that agricultural<br />
land is decreasing significantly in several areas<br />
due to urban encroachment. Thus, Cusco province<br />
lost 62% of its arable land in the 10 years<br />
from 1985 to 1995, whereas Urubamba lost<br />
25%. At the same time, he reports a loss of some<br />
of the more traditional crops to livestock grazing<br />
and intensification of farming (e.g. irrigated land<br />
has increased 89% in 22 years from 1972).<br />
Many irrigation schemes disregard impacts on<br />
the overall social and natural web of interactions<br />
(Liberman Cruz, 1987), leading to further loss<br />
of arable land and native biodiversity.<br />
The advance of the agricultural frontier is<br />
particularly evident in the lowland areas, where<br />
Standardized to 1 for first value<br />
2.00<br />
1.50<br />
1.00<br />
0.50<br />
0.00 1940<br />
1950 1960<br />
Urban population<br />
Arable land, cusco prov.<br />
Remaining forests<br />
Land Use Change and <strong>Mountain</strong> Biodiversity<br />
it is marked by large-scale deforestation. However,<br />
although less evident, use pressure is<br />
growing in the highlands as well, as manifest<br />
by the increasing altitude at which crops and<br />
livestock are grown and the increasing intensity<br />
and density of cultivation.<br />
THREATENED<br />
SPECIES<br />
Although there is no data specific to the Cusco<br />
Department, Pulido (2001) reports threatened<br />
animal species for Peru have increased from<br />
162 to 222 from 1990 to 1999. Such increases<br />
have been recorded around the world in what<br />
is often more a matter of increased monitoring<br />
and perception than of real change of status in<br />
such short times. Amphibian decline noted<br />
around the world is also being observed in the<br />
Vilcanota region, with local people reporting<br />
the apparent reduction or total disappearance of<br />
three to four species of frogs in areas close to<br />
4000 m. Although a causal relation has yet to<br />
be found, it is of concern that recent sampling<br />
above 4400 m found evidence of deadly chytrid<br />
fungus infections (believed to be implicated in<br />
global decline) in remote populations of the<br />
aquatic Telmatobius marmoratus (DeVries et<br />
al., 2004).<br />
1970 1980 1990<br />
Year<br />
Total population<br />
Irrigated land<br />
Infant mortality<br />
Utilised land<br />
FIGURE 24.4 Combined social and environmental changes in Cusco Department, Peru (data from INEI in<br />
MAP, 2003 and Sibille, 1997).
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Climatic, Biodiversity & Socio-Economic Changes in Land Use in the Vilcanota Watershed, Peru<br />
DISCUSSION AND<br />
CONCLUSION:<br />
MACROECONOMIC DRIVERS<br />
There is considerable understanding of the<br />
small-scale effects on biodiversity of land use<br />
changes (e.g. other chapters in this book).<br />
Although we recognize the rich tapestry of<br />
ecology, farm- and people-scale dynamic processes<br />
that underpin the large scale, there is also<br />
a need to understand the large spatial scale and<br />
drivers. The increasing complexity on larger<br />
scales creates particular research difficulties,<br />
including reliance on secondary information,<br />
the importance of historical information, consistency<br />
of information across scales and across<br />
disciplines, and the translation of methods and<br />
language between disciplines.<br />
The remarkable diversity of environments<br />
in the Vilcanota Valley arising from the combination<br />
of topographic conditions, altitude, and<br />
rainfall, together with the mosaic of natural disturbances<br />
and dynamic human management<br />
strategies, has led to a high-energy system with<br />
high biodiversity and high flows of materials<br />
among its landscape components.<br />
The main threats to biodiversity in the Vilcanota<br />
presently involve land use changes. Mitigating<br />
the effects of those changes on biodiversity<br />
requires identifying and understanding<br />
the drivers of change. This chapter is a contribution<br />
to identify the next level of causal interactions<br />
between biodiversity, land use changes,<br />
and socioeconomic drivers (the macroeconomic<br />
system). There is added value in that patterns<br />
observed in the Vilcanota are comparable and,<br />
hence, can be extrapolated (with careful consideration<br />
of differences) to a large range of<br />
similar valleys along the Central Andes, and<br />
likely provide insights for similar valleys<br />
worldwide.<br />
SUMMARY<br />
We explore the multidimensional environment–biodiversity–human–time<br />
complex of an<br />
important cultural and ecological hub in the<br />
Central Andes of Peru: the Vilcanota–Urubamba<br />
river catchment (Sacred Valley<br />
of the Incas and Cordillera de Vilcanota). The<br />
331<br />
watershed begins at the upper borderline of the<br />
biosphere where glaciers are retreating, vegetation<br />
and local fauna are rising, and humans are<br />
cultivating crops and herding camelids at<br />
increasingly higher altitudes. Maximum altitude<br />
of potato cropping is now reaching 4580<br />
m, whereas the highest vascular plants were<br />
found at 5510 m. The number of cultivated species<br />
and varieties censused is up to 34 above<br />
3600 m. The midaltitude Valle Sagrado has<br />
been occupied for millennia, but is presently<br />
undergoing dramatic changes (deforestation at<br />
60 to 90%, fire, exotic invasions, large eucalyptus<br />
plantations, etc) resulting from socioeconomic<br />
pressures (poverty, malnutrition in 60%<br />
of children, outmigration at >21%, market pressures<br />
leading to monocultures, and intensive<br />
cropping), causing a restructuring of spatially<br />
and temporally integrated land use patterns. The<br />
number of cultivated plants can be up to 49 in<br />
one district around 3500 m, whereas total number<br />
of vascular plants above 3500 m in Peru is<br />
>1800. The lower part of the valley reaches the<br />
Amazonian lowlands, providing a pathway for<br />
intensive exchanges with the higher regions. Up<br />
to 75 species of cultivated plants are censused<br />
in one lower district, with 6500 species of vascular<br />
plants recorded below 500 m. <strong>Andean</strong> valleys<br />
such as the Vilcanota, reaching from glacial<br />
peaks to tropical rainforests, provide unique<br />
opportunities for understanding the complex<br />
interactions between landscape, biodiversity,<br />
human cultures, and land use change at a large<br />
scale. The complex mix of macroeconomics,<br />
culture, and ecology are key causes of land use<br />
change and its effect on biodiversity.<br />
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334 Land Use Change and <strong>Mountain</strong> Biodiversity<br />
APPENDIX I<br />
Altitude Population,<br />
Capital Projection Area<br />
Province District Capital (m) 2002 (km2 Density<br />
(inhabitants<br />
) km-2 ) Educationa Housingb ha Percentage Ratio of<br />
cultiv. of Land in Permanent<br />
n cult. Cultivated per Parcels
3523_book.fm Page 335 Thursday, September 29, 2005 10:38 AM<br />
Climatic, Biodiversity & Socio-Economic Changes in Land Use in the Vilcanota Watershed, Peru 335<br />
Canchis Pitumarca Pitumarca 3570 7,692 1,118 6.9 24 56.7 20 674.6 0.09 56.2% 0.0000 2.60 2.96<br />
Urubamba Chinchero Chinchero 3762 10,166 95 107.5 49.2 21.3 34 3138 0.31 64.7% 0.0001 3.34 1.08<br />
Acomayo Mosoc Llacta Mosco Llacta 3802 1,750 44 40.1 43.3 32.6 6 106.5 0.06 64.7% 0.0000 3.43 5.63<br />
Note: Districts of the Cusco Department with parts in the Vilcanota watershed, ranked by altitude of the district capital. Collated and calculated from 1993–1994 census, (INEI, 2003).<br />
a Proportion of total population above 15 year with complete or partial primary schooling.<br />
b Percentage of housing with no services (water, electricity, and sewage).
3523_book.fm Page 336 Thursday, September 29, 2005 10:38 AM
Human Development and Environment in the Andes: A Geoecological Overview<br />
Author(s): Wilhelm Lauer<br />
Source: <strong>Mountain</strong> Research and Development, Vol. 13, No. 2, <strong>Mountain</strong> Geoecology of the<br />
Andes: Resource Management and Sustainable Development (May, 1993), pp. 157-166<br />
Published by: International <strong>Mountain</strong> Society<br />
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3673633<br />
Accessed: 03/05/2010 10:26<br />
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MOUNTAIN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT, VOL. 13, NO. 2, 1993, PP. 157-166<br />
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE ANDES:<br />
A GEOECOLOGICAL OVERVIEW<br />
WILHELM LAUER<br />
Geographisches Institut der Universitdt Bonn<br />
Meckenheimer Allee 166<br />
5300 Bonn 1, Germany<br />
ABSTRACT The natural environment and human development and culture are closely related. The basic physical features of relief,<br />
climate, and soil and the biological resources of flora and fauna were important factors that influenced early human evolution,<br />
expansion, and development. In Latin America, the geoecological features gave rise to horizontal and vertical differentiation. Two<br />
examples are examined.<br />
In Mexico between 1600 B.C. and A.D. 1500 climatic changes resulted in population fluctuations, varying degrees of environmental<br />
damage, and cultivation change from dryland farming to irrigated fields.<br />
The system of subsistence of the Callawaya people in Bolivia is adapted to the environment and each family owns land in all<br />
altitudinal belts between 3,000 and 4,300 m, so that they are almost self-sufficient and risks of food shortage are minimized.<br />
Today, population pressure, on the one hand, and migration to the cities, on the other, have undermined traditional land use.<br />
Socioeconomic change in rural mountain areas is inevitable and a balance should be maintained between preservation of traditional,<br />
though less productive, systems and the modernization and improvement of the standards of living of mountain people.<br />
RESUMt Perspective geologique de l'homme et de l'environnement dans les Andes latines-americaines. Le milieu naturel, le developpment<br />
humain et la culture sont etroitement lies. Le relief, le climat, le sol et les ressources biologiques de la flore et de la faune ont<br />
beaucoup influence l'evolution humaine, l'expansion et le developpement. En Amerique latine, les caracteristiques geoecologiques<br />
ont donne lieu a une differentiation horizontale et verticale. Deux exemples sont examines dans cet article.<br />
Au Mexique, au cours de la periode comprise entre 1.600 ans av. J.-C. et 1.500 ans ap. J.-C., les changements climatiques ont<br />
entraine des fluctuations de la population, diff6rents degr6s d'endommagement de l'environnement et un changement du mode<br />
de culture, de la culture a sec a la culture irriguee.<br />
Le systeme de subsistance des Callawaya en Bolivie est bien adapte a l'environnement et chaque famille de paysans possede des<br />
terres dans toutes les zones altitudinales entre 3.000 et 4.300 m, de sorte qu'ils se suffisent pratiquement a eux-memes et que les<br />
risques de disette sont minimises.<br />
A l'epoque actuelle, la pression demographique et la migration vers les villes ont ebranlI les modes traditionnels d'utilisation<br />
des terres. Le changement socio-economique dans les regions rurales de montagne est inevitable, mais il est important de respecter<br />
a la fois les besoins de preservation des modes de vie traditionnels, bien que moins productifs, et ceux de la modernisation et<br />
de l'amelioration du niveau de vie de la population montagnarde.<br />
ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Mensch und Umwelt in den lateinamerikanischen Anden: Eine geookologische Ubersicht. Natfirliche Umwelt, menschliche<br />
Entwicklung und Kultur sind eng miteinander verflochten. Grundlegende, physikalische Merkmale wie Relief, Klima und Boden<br />
und die biologischen Ressourcen wie Flora und Fauna waren wichtige Faktoren, die die fruhe menschliche Evolution, Ausbreitung<br />
und Entwicklung beeinfluB3ten. In Lateinamerika verursachten die geo-6kologischen Merkmale horizontale und vertikale Differenzierung.<br />
Zwei Beispiele werden untersucht.<br />
Zwischen 1600 BC und 1500 AD ffhrten Klimaanderungen in Mexiko zu Schwankungen in der Bev6olkerungszahl, zu<br />
Umweltschaden von verschiedenen Schweregraden und zu einem Wechsel in der Landbestellung, wobei bisher unbewasserte Felder<br />
jetzt bewassert wurden.<br />
Das Subsistenzsystem des Callawaya Volkes in Bolivien ist der Umwelt angepaBt; jede Familie besitzt in allen H6hengiirteln zwischen<br />
3.000 m und 4.300 m Land, was sie beinah unabhangig macht gegenuber dem Risiko der Nahrungsmittelverknappung.<br />
Heutzutage haben Bev6olkerungsdruck einerseits und Abwanderung in die Stadte andererseits die traditionelle Landnutzung<br />
untergraben. Ein sozio-6konomischer Wandel in den landlichen Berggemeinden ist unabwendbar, und dabei sollte ein Gleichgewicht<br />
zwischen den traditionellen - wenn auch weniger produktiven- Systemen und der Modernisierung angestrebt werden, um den<br />
Lebensstandard der Bergbev6olkerung zu verbessern.<br />
INTRODUCTION<br />
The history of mankind in America is characterized by the American Cordillera from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego;<br />
relatively clear premises: during the late-Pleistocene era within a relatively short time a significant differentiation<br />
early peoples intruded into the continent from the Bering and diversification took place among the hitherto uni-<br />
Strait and continued south along the mountain range of formly structured population; with this came an adapta-<br />
? International <strong>Mountain</strong> Society and United Nations University
158 / MOUNTAIN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT<br />
tion to a mountainous land with dissimilar geological<br />
formations and that included nearly all the climates that<br />
exist on earth.<br />
The natural features of this mountain region and<br />
human development and culture are closely correlated.<br />
Especially in the early days of human expansion basic<br />
In this paper the geoecological characteristics of the<br />
Latin American Andes are discussed by describing the<br />
horizontal and vertical differentiations, and the relation-<br />
ships between the people and environment are explained<br />
in terms of historical stages of development as well as<br />
spatial distinctions.<br />
When mountains are examined as living space (human<br />
habitat) it is apparent that they present both desirable<br />
and undesirable qualities. Because of favorable climates<br />
that allowed plants to be cultivated, centers of early<br />
civilization developed in mountains and here the gene-<br />
pools are concentrated, from where they spread through-<br />
out the world.<br />
Glaciated mountain regions provide water supplies and<br />
mountains of volcanic origin are rich in mineral deposits.<br />
Furthermore, areas with soils derived from volcanic<br />
activity in the intermontane valleys and basins are positive<br />
factors for human habitation. They were beneficial to the<br />
development of early civilizations in Columbia, Peru, and<br />
Bolivia, as well as the Mexican highlands and the young<br />
volcanic mountain ridge between Guatemala and Costa<br />
Rica.<br />
In non-tropical regions mountains may be seen as<br />
living spaces of an inhospitable nature. <strong>Mountain</strong>s may<br />
be barriers to human activities, areas of inhospitable<br />
climate with frequent natural hazards, such as landslides,<br />
avalanches, and solifluction, and regions of severe<br />
cold.<br />
However, in the tropics and some areas of the sub-<br />
tropical mountains, land that is hospitable to human<br />
activity is extended altitudinally due to climatic factors,<br />
and therefore living space is vertically expanded. Outside<br />
the tropics permanent settlements are restricted to lower<br />
levels of the mountains and only a few seasonal dwellings<br />
lie above. In contrast, in the tropical Andes permanent<br />
settlements lie at higher altitudes and seasonal supple-<br />
mentary areas lie on the lower slopes and even in the hot<br />
lowlands.<br />
Climatic conditions are very important factors in the<br />
development of mankind throughout the Andes. The<br />
American Cordillera encompasses all the climatic zones<br />
of the world (Figure 1). The Latin American sector lies<br />
mainly in the tropics. Only the southern end extends to<br />
the climatic belt of the westerlies. Thus, in most of the<br />
region seasons are determined not by temperature but<br />
by rainfall, and altitudinal zonation controls the natural<br />
environment. This, in turn, influences the vegetative cycle<br />
THE GEOECOLOGICAL POTENTIAL<br />
physical factors, such as climate, rock strata, and soil, and<br />
biological resources were important factors of selection.<br />
People, in groups or as individuals, had to adapt to<br />
natural conditions and to utilize the natural resources for<br />
the development of civilization.<br />
of the plants and the course of the agrarian year, and so<br />
the economic rhythm of each local area.<br />
The well-known three-dimensional scheme of temperature<br />
decrease with increasing altitude (temperature<br />
altitudinal belts) and the decrease of rainy seasons from<br />
the equator to deserts divides the <strong>Andean</strong> chain into<br />
humid and arid, as well as into warm and cold, tropics<br />
(Figure 2). In Latin America these thermal zones are<br />
called by the well-known names first used by Alexander<br />
von Humboldt (tierra caliente, tierra templada, tierrafria, and<br />
tierra helada or gelida).<br />
Towards the outer tropics the climatic as well as<br />
vegetation belts come closer together. Whereas the timberline<br />
from the inner tropics towards the marginal<br />
tropics increases slightly from 3,000 up to 4,000 m,<br />
beyond the tropics it decreases continually and relatively<br />
rapidly to low elevations; in Tierra del Fuego the timberline<br />
is only a few hundred meters above sea level (Figure<br />
3), finally reaching sea level toward the southern extremity<br />
of the landmass.<br />
The correlations between altitudinal belts of climate<br />
and vegetation, on the one hand, and the agricultural<br />
belts, on the other, are significant. The relationship<br />
between the land-use systems and the natural potential<br />
mainly depends on the climatic adaptability of the cultivated<br />
plants, so that the agricultural altitudinal belts can<br />
be described by means of climatic parameters and are<br />
characterized by cultivated crops. Therefore, the history<br />
of <strong>Andean</strong> agriculture is at the same time the history of<br />
the adaptation of rural production to the thermal and<br />
hygric altitudinal belts, so that even today economy and<br />
ecology interact closely.<br />
The physical parameters are not the only factors and<br />
the land is also characterized by human activity. The<br />
feasibility of cultivation in different regions plays an<br />
important role in the evolution of the way of life. In the<br />
Andes the development of the Inca civilization is based<br />
on the cultivation of root crops (potatoes, oca, izano, and<br />
mashua) in the altitudinal belt above 3,600 m. Such a belt<br />
does not exist in the northern hemisphere in the marginal<br />
tropics of Mexico. There maize has been the basic food<br />
since settlement although it grows only up to a height of<br />
around 3,000 m. In colonial times the cultivation belt<br />
extended up to the treeline and wheat and barley were<br />
grown. In Peru and Bolivia there is a cereal belt below<br />
the root crop belt where mainly domestic maize, wheat,<br />
and barley as well as legumes are cultivated.
.. ...: . . ... .. . .. . ...<br />
* '.. .. ..:... ar'-.<br />
. ..0.JF I<br />
....lbima tic d ren aiaion<br />
-:<br />
150- :N<br />
50O-<br />
* .fo -:^<br />
_ 10-U humid months.<br />
'- isubaShid modnth<br />
. 4-6.i humid monts<br />
.2-3-Apinid t<br />
a.rhudid M athsl:<br />
-.2.-3h.uhmid ..mo.nths;. :<br />
-. r l. *-mn . : h : s<br />
*" 6. :1 .humid. months :<br />
Sm..<br />
T(C)<br />
.<br />
^% . :.. ,.:. . z.O<br />
C.. .. 3312m<br />
... : .. . . . .. .<br />
: .. . . . . . .. % . . . . . . . .<br />
i<br />
TCC)<br />
T(CC)<br />
20<br />
10 .. . . .. . .. . ::<br />
La Pa.-l Alto. 4058m.<br />
*5.0- N:(mm):: T(:):<br />
100-<br />
: : t:<br />
. .: . x<br />
.. 1<br />
: :: j..: .: :. .. I .<br />
.. . _ ><br />
:::... ...<br />
:: .::: . [:<br />
*:. t. :'<br />
*. o:. ..<br />
... .. .X .<br />
* b ..<br />
* .: . :: / . ::<br />
Subtropics and Mid-La<br />
s a ntarctic rain-fores<br />
bro.. .leaves: a<br />
mixed :. : .._ .s.'. :::<br />
: '_ hard. eavs forest<br />
* moist high grass-land<br />
* thorn- and succulent si<br />
....<br />
:.......... . ..:.. ... . : .. .....<br />
*: :.: ** ^ P .:.:. .............: ...: : :^^^<br />
[..] deserty Puna. .. ::<br />
[* semidesert and desert.<br />
. . : ---- ---- - . . . . . . . . . . :<br />
FIGURE 1. Climatic differentiation and vegetation belts of the Andes (modified from various authors).<br />
W. LAUER / 159<br />
.' ...<br />
.....<br />
* . . . .
160 / MOUNTAIN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT<br />
humid months<br />
12 11 10 9 8 716 5 4 3 2 1<br />
arid months 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12<br />
IMES<br />
humid semihumid<br />
I<br />
semiarid<br />
arid<br />
wet tropics I<br />
dry tropics<br />
P>pE P=pE<br />
P annual range of temperature<br />
Evergreen montane rain forest (cloud forest)<br />
V/////// Evergreen rain forest (warm tropics)<br />
Warm<br />
tropics<br />
FIGURE 2. Three-dimensional hygrothermal belts of the tropical Andes.<br />
p,",,,,, Semi- Evergreen montane forest<br />
.\A,\,\, {(ptly. trade wind influence)<br />
rj/'/;"; Semi-Evergreen rain forest<br />
/,5,,///J ( ptly. monsoon forest)<br />
[ j Cold<br />
tropics<br />
PHASES OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE ANDEAN AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPES<br />
In general, the Indian culture of the Andes was mainly the end of the nineteenth and the beginning of the<br />
influenced by three phases of revolution: the Hispanic twentieth centuries.<br />
Conquista; the Age of Enlightenment which led to the<br />
separation of colonies from the motherland; and the<br />
technological conquest of the 'American Way of Life" at<br />
These external influences had more disadvantages<br />
than advantages for Latin American development. Indian<br />
civilization received "transformation pushes" from the<br />
I<br />
0
W. LAUER / 161<br />
0 Lo<br />
N<br />
20 0? 20 40 60 8o 10? 120o v 16? 18o 200 220 2to 26? 28o 30<br />
I.- Kolumbien - 1- Ecuador -<br />
| Peru Peru/Bolivien- Chile<br />
tr<br />
'-j ; Pramo<br />
I 1 7Ceja de la<br />
^ .' 4 Montaia<br />
tropical<br />
''<br />
upper montane<br />
a IT' cloud forest<br />
| t l t t |tropical<br />
9' t t T montane forest<br />
. tropical<br />
LT i p rain-forest<br />
L<br />
.,* l.<br />
|,/<br />
moist Puna<br />
"{Pajonalcs<br />
~' |'<br />
raingreen mesophytic<br />
, dry shrub<br />
I ;p ;P P| raingreen moist Forst<br />
I ?I and moist savannah<br />
-- -y ? I raingreen dry forest<br />
-? |'/ and dry savannah<br />
desert Puna<br />
* " .: " dry Puna<br />
? ??4t IPolylepis woodland<br />
| ^ * 1 raingreen thorn<br />
'v f vr and succulent shrub<br />
v semidesert<br />
:v v .. ~ succulent scurb<br />
v sm v<br />
FIGURE 3. A cross-section of the vegetation belts along the western slope of the tropical Andes.<br />
European culture when America was discovered. Depend-<br />
ing on the stage of development each indigenous group<br />
was affected differently and unequal relationships of<br />
dependency remain today. The native population has<br />
received no real benefits from the influx of foreigners<br />
and their industrial world, especially in rural areas.<br />
The major social and technical changes that occurred<br />
in Europe and America did not affect the <strong>Andean</strong> states<br />
or lead to comparable innovation there. Neither the<br />
Agrarian Revolution, that began in Europe around<br />
A.D.1 700 and continues even today as the "Green Revolu-<br />
tion," nor the Industrial Revolution, which began in<br />
Europe about A.D. 1780, has had a comparative influence<br />
in South America. The establishment of universal educa-<br />
tion did not take place there and knowledge remained<br />
mainly a privilege of the elite. The advances in medical<br />
technology led to a population explosion followed by a<br />
diminishing standard of living. Also the rapid extension<br />
of the transport and communication systems in the Old<br />
World during the second half of the nineteenth century<br />
were only barely realized in the Andes.<br />
*I '. * outertropic andine<br />
bunch grass formation<br />
desert<br />
[ |.:'5~!. -Loma-vegetation<br />
***. v . . with Tillandsia<br />
Unfortunately, in light of the above, it seems unlikely<br />
that the ecological revolution which has just taken effect<br />
in the industrialized countries will affect Latin American.<br />
One of the basic requirements for environmental aware-<br />
ness is a high standard of living that is the outcome of<br />
effective reforms and control of population growth. In<br />
other words, the balance between demographic factors,<br />
economy, and ecology is disturbed. This imbalance may<br />
be derived from external factors, such as climatic change,<br />
as well as from internal ones. Disruptive factors cause<br />
radical changes that may have either positive or negative<br />
consequences.<br />
A major transition took place when societies moved<br />
from hunting and gathering to a settled way of life. It<br />
is likely that the eradication of the Pleistocene mega-<br />
fauna, for the most part by hunters, led to development<br />
of agrarian societies in the "Old" as well as in the "New"<br />
World. This transition lasted at least 2,000 years and<br />
certainly man came into conflict with nature as well as<br />
into conflict with man.
162 / MOUNTAIN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT<br />
FIGURE 4. Number of the archaeological<br />
sites in different prehistoric<br />
cultural phases in the Tlaxcalaregion<br />
(after Garcia Cook, 1976),<br />
and the morphological processes<br />
caused by human activity in different<br />
regions of study area (modified after<br />
Heine, 1976).<br />
Number of the settlements<br />
-400<br />
-300<br />
-200<br />
-100<br />
C|<br />
Cultural Phases C - A 0z C<br />
S ,<br />
I<br />
(after Garcia Cook) E | 1<br />
B.C. 2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 AD<br />
Slopes $ t<br />
| t I , . _ ....<br />
I<br />
High-<br />
Plains<br />
and<br />
Basins<br />
North r-.- ~<br />
Middle<br />
East J.<br />
0<br />
.-<br />
j.<br />
-<br />
1<br />
*-<br />
U<br />
a I<br />
Glacier advance i,- M<br />
M v<br />
in comparison with present<br />
Archaeological and geoecological studies in Mexico<br />
indicate the interaction of landscape change with the<br />
history of humankind during the prehispanic cultural<br />
phases between 2000 B.C. and A.D. 1500. The results of<br />
these interdisciplinary studies include: that migration and<br />
changes in the location of settlements occurred within<br />
each epoch (Figure 4); that changing climate has had<br />
an influence on historical development within the past<br />
3,500 years; that population has fluctuated throughout<br />
time and with it differing degrees of environmental<br />
damage; a cultivation change from dryland farming to<br />
irrigation led from dispersal to concentration of population<br />
and from a purely agrarian society to one based on<br />
the division of labor. Furthermore, there are indications<br />
that increases in population led to intensification of<br />
production and environmental degradation.<br />
In the study area of Puebla-Tlaxcala during the late<br />
pre-classical era between 800 and 300 B.C. the increase<br />
I<br />
k/ 11.1 /4<br />
6I<br />
0<br />
t)<br />
.c<br />
b<br />
ft<br />
iz<br />
m<br />
5500<br />
5000-<br />
I O0<br />
3<br />
I *500<br />
free solifluction<br />
"'<br />
bound soliifluction<br />
." Puna belt }^<br />
Nivodo Ullo Kh<br />
561<br />
E semiarid mes ophytic cjshrub terrace cultures<br />
N;vodo Akamoni m<br />
o- 5500<br />
semihumid mesophytic cej shrub33<br />
:<br />
E tropical montane forest [j[',', :<br />
[P<br />
[:1<br />
Polylepis trees<br />
thorn and succulent shrub .,<br />
"<br />
iros<br />
"5<br />
ris belts' ^ ,<br />
PTL potential tree line<br />
PFL potential forest line<br />
FL forest line<br />
...f,rr- ...<br />
':- ''',<br />
.<br />
'f .<br />
-'' .^: pastures tor lomas, ''<br />
-5000<br />
-".<br />
i'.' :".-; . ., ~".~ .s' '.': s-:? : ,ee, 2. ''<br />
-4500<br />
alpocat and shehp. .'.:'.' ."<br />
---- ?<br />
.?~ ..`.Z:~:?Z..~.~:`~..~.:4:.`~.~;'~:!;~*.:~~~.!~;i:~: :..x' -A"~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~b:'<br />
e<br />
:x=.-:./.~.'''A<br />
.~:;~:.~.`o.... ~.~. ..<br />
~~~~~~~~~~000~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<br />
FIGURE 5. Agro-ecological altitudinal belts of the Charazani region.<br />
The cultivated area was reduced, small villages were<br />
abandoned and, where people concentrated within the<br />
irrigated areas, the slopes were severely eroded.<br />
It can be seen that climatic change certainly influenced<br />
The example of the Callawaya people of Bolivia exem-<br />
plifies the persistence of ancient systems of cultivation<br />
that still operate in several regions of the Andes. The<br />
ecological system and the land-use system are in balance<br />
although the economy is characterized by the common<br />
problem of overpopulation, low crop yields, and lack of<br />
modern technology. This traditional way of life is worth<br />
preserving as a relic of pre-colonial times although the<br />
indigenous people may strive for modernization.<br />
The Callawaya are an ethnic group in the northeastern<br />
Bolivian Cordillera whose way of life and land-use systems<br />
are based primarily on the traditional, colonial agro-<br />
ecological conditions. Families own land and cultivate<br />
terraces in all altitudinal belts between 3,000 and 4,300<br />
m (Figure 5). Hence the communities are nearly self-<br />
sufficient in their food requirements. The wide vertical<br />
extent of the fields reduces the risk of harvest failure and<br />
trade relationships between the three altitudinal belts<br />
provide the Callawaya with all their essential needs-from<br />
the puna belt above, characterized by cattle-breeding,<br />
and from the lower mountain forest belt of the Yungas.<br />
. ' C..'ot:.t<br />
. - : - 6.~
164 / MOUNTAIN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT<br />
FIGURE 6. The subsistence system of<br />
the Callawaya mountain people.<br />
cultivation of.: 'mdnufacture of..:<br />
bitter potatoes chufio and tunta<br />
(3900. -4.300mn, from bitte'r potatoes<br />
' ' ' .; .:. . , nd:'tu rilltia from<br />
::" :-. . .:..:.:ull u co :<br />
'c :':, .<br />
llama, and alpaca, and since the Hispanic Conquista<br />
there are also sheep, goat, pigs, and cattle. During<br />
colonial times cereals were grown below the Indian<br />
agricultural belt (3,500-3,000 m) where, in addition to<br />
the main domestic crop of maize, wheat has become<br />
increasingly important; the rotation of wheat with barley<br />
and legumes (peas and beans) optimizes the use of soil<br />
nutrients so that fallow is no longer necessary. In this<br />
cereal belt, which was initiated during the Hispanic<br />
colonial time, nutritional levels of the local population<br />
improved noticeably.<br />
The Callawaya own land in the three cultivation belts<br />
in order to diversify food supply. Access to lands in more<br />
distant altitudinal belts and down to the Amazonian<br />
lowlands is made possible by special farming arrange-<br />
ments and paid for by division of labor or a proportion<br />
of the harvest. Interchange with stable trade relationships<br />
takes place beyond family limits and even over tribal<br />
boundaries. Caravans transport agricultural products to<br />
markets on the old footpaths down to the tierra caliente<br />
and upwards to the pasture belt, and also in a lateral<br />
direction to the capital of La Paz and to Peru where<br />
complementary exchanges are made (Schoop, 1982)<br />
(Figure 6).<br />
The Callawaya are an example of an indigenous pop-<br />
ulation that has been, and still is, able to use natural<br />
HUMAN ACTIVITY AND THE ANDEAN ECOSYSTEM<br />
dlmas,alpocas, heepeand pigs<br />
.....................:<br />
Isheep pand goats, pigsj<br />
(st ubble :'pa sture).?.:::<br />
The vertical system of the crop and pasture belts as well<br />
as the vertical and horizontal traffic of production,<br />
exchange, and trade secures the lifestyle of the commu-<br />
nities and tribes (the Ayllu). The term "vertical control"<br />
implies maximum use of ecological belts in the economy<br />
of the <strong>Andean</strong> society (Murra, 1975). Brush (1977, 1982)<br />
found three types of use of the different altitudinal belts<br />
by one ethnic group, the Ayllu.<br />
1. The compressed type, where the settlements in the<br />
belt of root crops and cereals are accessible within<br />
a few hours from all ecological belts and are used<br />
directly by the settlement.<br />
2. The archipelago type, where other agricultural belts<br />
can be reached from the central settlement within<br />
a few days.<br />
3. The supplementary type where the essential food<br />
supply of a settlement is supplemented by trading<br />
with producers in other belts. This is the most<br />
frequent type today (Figure 7).<br />
This entire system operates on a network of footpaths<br />
partly initiated by the Inca. The caravans consist mainly<br />
of mules although at higher altitudes llamas are also<br />
used. However, today there are trucks wherever roads are<br />
well constructed.<br />
resources by using the different altitudinal belts in an<br />
adapted system of economy which includes terrace culti-
UmLanded property <<br />
(perhaps Market-place)easonal<br />
vation and well-designed crop rotation. But environ-<br />
mental degradation caused by the indigenous people is<br />
severe, especially at the high altitude up to treeline where<br />
the main settlements lie. In the upper tierrafria destruc-<br />
tion of the natural vegetation is nearly complete. Land<br />
clearing by burning for cultivation, the unregulated<br />
taking of fire wood and commercial timber, and extensive<br />
cattle ranching are responsible for destruction of the<br />
natural vegetation especially in the puna and the<br />
grasslands.<br />
The model (Figure 8) shows human influence on the<br />
natural ecosystem and the partial destruction due to<br />
extensive cultivation and cattle breeding. In many cases,<br />
the timberline has been disturbed and lowered by several<br />
Although the systems of adaptation to the mountain<br />
environment in rural areas are impressive, the con-<br />
sequences are misuse and degradation of the natural<br />
vegetation. Not only population pressure but also aban-<br />
donment due to migration to cities leads to change.<br />
Large areas of farm land are no longer cultivated;<br />
terraces and irrigation networks are going to ruin; con-<br />
sequences of erosion leave irreversible damage due to<br />
ettlements<br />
MODERN TENDENCIES AND DANGERS<br />
W. LAUER / 165<br />
FIGURE 7. Types of vertical accessi-<br />
bility of the agrarian belts of the<br />
central Andes.<br />
hundred meters, in some places to below 3,000 m. In<br />
Ecuador our research placed the potential treeline at<br />
about 4,000 m, but this cannot be determined if the<br />
treeline comprises a closed wood. It may be indicated that<br />
climate played a part because, with the arrival of humans<br />
in the Andes during the postglacial warming, the mean<br />
annual air temperature was about 2?C higher than today.<br />
Therefore treeline would be several hundred meters<br />
higher. The gradual climatic cooling may have hastened<br />
the process of degradation of the upper treeline area in<br />
addition to human influence. Grazing by goats and sheep<br />
introduced from the Old World led to more rapid<br />
destruction in the upper treeline area and a lowering of<br />
the belt of closed forests.<br />
more frequent floods and greater sedimentation in the<br />
foothills.<br />
The future development of the <strong>Andean</strong> region requires<br />
a return to the farming practices of the prehispanic<br />
period that have been largely forgotten. The extension<br />
of a system of terracing is a priority, but modern tools<br />
may be used without incurring damage in some instances.<br />
Old tools may be more suitable but a well-adapted land-
166 / MOUNTAIN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT<br />
FIGURE 8. Succession of ecosystems in the Andes<br />
(modified after Ellenberg, 1979).<br />
use system may sometimes be labor intensive. The cultiva-<br />
tion of the indigenous and well-adapted introduced<br />
species may be improved by modern technology that<br />
includes resistance to disease and pests, reduction of<br />
harvest risk, and a higher intensity of use. Industries<br />
based on native products for the local market and also<br />
for export should be encouraged. The pasture use today<br />
is characterized by overstocking by introduced European<br />
hoofed mammals such as cattle, sheep, and goats which<br />
rapidly destroy vegetation. One solution to this problem<br />
may be the cultivation of fodder crops or stabling and<br />
creation larger markets for animal products.<br />
Improvements in agricultural production should be<br />
judged not only by their economic success but also in<br />
relation to their ecological and social effects. In spite of<br />
the preservation of traditional systems adapted to the<br />
natural environment, optimum socio-cultural conditions<br />
and educational possibilities require control of popula-<br />
tion growth. Some of the present traditional rural systems<br />
in the High Andes adjust the pressure of population by<br />
migration to urban areas, but this relocates the instability<br />
to the cities where new problems arise.<br />
Nevertheless, the question is whether or not it is<br />
possible to help the people make their own decisions<br />
about their future. In recent years a world-wide increase<br />
REFERENCES<br />
Brush, S. B., 1977: <strong>Mountain</strong>, Field, and Family: The Economy and<br />
Human Ecology of an <strong>Andean</strong> Valley. University of Pennsylvania<br />
Press, Philadelphia, PA. 199 pp.<br />
, 1982: The natural and human environment of the<br />
central Andes. <strong>Mountain</strong> Research and Development, 2(1):<br />
19-38.<br />
Ellenberg, H., 1979: Man's influence on tropical mountain<br />
ecosystems in South America. Journal of Ecology, 67:<br />
401-416.<br />
Garcia Cook, A., 1976: El desarollo cultural en el norte del valle<br />
poblano. Departamento de Monumentos Prehistoricos, Serie:<br />
Arqueologia 1 (INAH), Mexico.<br />
*C<br />
-c<br />
.t<br />
I.V<br />
cIL<br />
s<br />
c)<br />
r<br />
b J<br />
o I<br />
E<br />
in urbanization has occurred, great cities have arisen, and<br />
the system of a division of labor has been introduced to<br />
increase the gross national product of a country or<br />
region. In future, the <strong>Andean</strong> mountain region will have<br />
to be incorporated into this system. Newjobs for the large<br />
numbers of rural people must be created. It may be<br />
impossible to halt socioeconomic change in rural areas<br />
without an increase in productivity-as would be possible<br />
if there were a "Green Revolution." Therefore, entry into<br />
the modern age by developing countries of Latin America<br />
will be by means of improvements in infrastructure and<br />
technical "know how." The three most important meas-<br />
ures are control of population growth, increase in the<br />
educational level, and improvement of technology. With<br />
these measures must come the protection of the natural<br />
resources of rural mountain ecosystems.<br />
Our research in the Latin American Andes posed quite<br />
a dilemma: on the one hand, we hope that the rural<br />
population will continue their traditions of working<br />
adequately in a less productive, but labor intensive,<br />
subsistence land-use system that will maintain the balance<br />
of ecology and economy; on the other hand, we cannot<br />
deny mountain people the means for improvement of<br />
their standard of living.<br />
Heine, K., 1976: Blockgletscher und Blockzungen-Generationen<br />
am Nevado de Toluca, Mexiko. Die Erde, H. 4: 330--352.<br />
Murra, J. V., 1975: El control vertical de un maximo de pisos<br />
ecolo6gicos en la economia de las sociedades andinas. In<br />
Formaciones econ6micas y politicas del mundo andino. Instituto de<br />
Estudios Peruanos, Lima, 59-115.<br />
Schoop, W., 1982: Giiteraustausch und regionale Mobilitat im<br />
Kallawaya-Tal (Bolivien). Erdkunde, 36, H. 4, 254-266.<br />
Trautmann, W., 1981: Las transformaciones en elpaisaje cultural de<br />
Tlaxcala durante la epoca colonial. Das Mexico-Projekt der<br />
deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft, Bd. 17.
Clim. Past, 5, 375–388, 2009<br />
www.clim-past.net/5/375/2009/<br />
© Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed under<br />
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.<br />
Putting the rise of the Inca Empire within a climatic and land<br />
management context<br />
Climate<br />
of the Past<br />
A. J. Chepstow-Lusty 1,2 , M. R. Frogley 3 , B. S. Bauer 4 , M. J. Leng 5 , K. P. Boessenkool 6 , C. Carcaillet 2,7 , A. A. Ali 2 , and<br />
A. Gioda 8<br />
1 Institut Français d’Etudes Andines (IFEA), Lima, Peru<br />
2 Centre for Bio-Archaeology and Ecology, Université Montpellier 2, Montpellier, France<br />
3 Department of <strong>Geography</strong>, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK<br />
4 Department of Anthropology, The University of Illinois at Chicago, Illinois, USA<br />
5 NERC Isotope Geoscience Laboratory, Nottingham, UK<br />
6 School of Earth, Ocean and Planetary Sciences, University of Cardiff, Cardiff, UK<br />
7 Paleoenvironments and Chronoecology, Institut de Botanique, Montpellier, France<br />
8 Hydrosciences, IRD, Lima, Peru<br />
Received: 30 January 2009 – Published in Clim. Past Discuss.: 4 March 2009<br />
Revised: 7 July 2009 – Accepted: 11 July 2009 – Published: 22 July 2009<br />
Abstract. The rapid expansion of the Inca from the Cuzco<br />
area of highland Peru (ca. AD 1400–1532) produced the<br />
largest empire in the New World. Although this meteoric<br />
growth may in part be due to the adoption of innovative<br />
societal strategies, supported by a large labour force and a<br />
standing army, we argue that it would not have been possible<br />
without increased crop productivity, which was linked<br />
to more favourable climatic conditions. Here we present a<br />
multi-proxy, high-resolution 1200-year lake sediment record<br />
from Marcacocha, located 12 km north of Ollantaytambo, in<br />
the heartland of the Inca Empire. This record reveals a period<br />
of sustained aridity that began from AD 880, followed by increased<br />
warming from AD 1100 that lasted beyond the arrival<br />
of the Spanish in AD 1532. These increasingly warmer<br />
conditions would have allowed the Inca and their immediate<br />
predecessors the opportunity to exploit higher altitudes<br />
(post-AD 1150) by constructing agricultural terraces that employed<br />
glacial-fed irrigation, in combination with deliberate<br />
agroforestry techniques. There may be some important<br />
lessons to be learnt today from these strategies for sustainable<br />
rural development in the Andes in the light of future<br />
climate uncertainty.<br />
Correspondence to: A. Chepstow-Lusty<br />
(a.lusty@aliceadsl.fr)<br />
1 Introduction<br />
Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.<br />
Through the use of regional-scale, multidisciplinary studies<br />
it is becoming increasingly evident that many prehistoric<br />
South American cultures were highly adaptable and<br />
able to ensure food security even under sustained periods<br />
of harsh climatic conditions. For example, immense, state<br />
level coastal societies such as the Moche (ca. AD 200–600)<br />
flourished in arid regions by developing sophisticated irrigation<br />
technologies to cope with extremes of water availability<br />
(Bawden, 1996). Highland cultures, on the other hand, not<br />
only had to deal with seasonal water supplies, but also had to<br />
combat large temperature ranges and steep terrain. A variety<br />
of innovative coping-strategies were therefore developed to<br />
maximise land-use and reduce soil erosion. These included<br />
the use of raised field systems by the Tiwanaku (ca. AD 500–<br />
1100) (Kolata 1996; Erickson 1999, 2000) and constructing<br />
major terracing and irrigation systems by the Wari (AD 500–<br />
1000) (Williams, 2006).<br />
The Inca of the south-central Andes were also able to develop<br />
a range of landscape-scale practices across a range of<br />
agro-ecological zones to support the growing numbers of<br />
individuals subsumed under their political control. Whilst<br />
these practices were in some cases innovative, some were<br />
built on already-proven, sustainable techniques developed by<br />
previous societies (including the Wari). After a prolonged<br />
period of cultural development (ca. AD 1100–1400) the Inca<br />
rapidly expanded beyond their heartland region of the Cuzco
376 A. J. Chepstow-Lusty et al.: Putting the rise of the Inca Empire within a climatic and land management context<br />
Valley (Bauer, 2004). By the time of European contact in<br />
1532 they had become the largest empire to develop in the<br />
Americas, controlling a region stretching from what is today<br />
northern Ecuador to central Chile and supporting a population<br />
of more than 8 million. While the factors involved<br />
in their sudden collapse under the stress of the Spanish invasion,<br />
including the introduction of new diseases and civil<br />
wars have been well documented (Hemming, 1970), relatively<br />
little scholarly attention has been focused on the rapid<br />
rise of the Inca as a pan-<strong>Andean</strong> power. Although part of<br />
the reason behind this expansion has been attributed to the<br />
development of new economic institutions and revolutionary<br />
strategies of political integration (e.g. Covey, 2006), these social<br />
advances had to be underpinned by the ability to generate<br />
agricultural surplus that could sustain large populations, including<br />
the standing armies necessary for wide-ranging military<br />
campaigns.<br />
Long before the Inca state developed, much of the central<br />
Andes was occupied by the Ayacucho-based Wari state<br />
(ca. AD 500–1000) and the Lake Titicaca-centred Tiwanauku<br />
state (ca. AD 500–1100). It is widely suggested that their<br />
declines were accelerated by worsening environmental conditions<br />
that decreased opportunities for agrarian intensification<br />
(Kolata, 1996; Williams, 2002, 2006; Bauer and<br />
Kellett, 2009). At around AD 1000, many lower elevation<br />
settlements in this region were abandoned and local<br />
populations became concentrated in newly constructed,<br />
defensibly-positioned sites located along high ridges. This<br />
dramatic settlement shift is generally thought to reflect a<br />
change from reliance on lower valley terrace (Wari) and<br />
raised field systems (Tiwanaku) to more diversified agropastoral<br />
economies. These agro-pastoral economies would<br />
have served as an effective risk-reduction subsistence strategy<br />
in the wake of widespread demographic, settlement and<br />
environmental change (Stanish, 2003; Arkush, 2006, 2008).<br />
In the Cuzco region, the decline of the Wari ushered in a<br />
period of regional development with the initiation of the Inca<br />
state that later culminated in a relatively brief yet significant<br />
period of imperial expansionism (Bauer, 2004). Documenting<br />
in detail the environmental backdrop against which the<br />
Inca expanded their influence and power enhances our understanding<br />
of the social, political and economic challenges that<br />
they faced. One of the difficulties in achieving this, however,<br />
is that the earlier and more substantive part of the rise of the<br />
Inca took place over several centuries; a longer-term environmental<br />
perspective is therefore needed to understand the social<br />
and ecological contexts in which this development took<br />
place. In this study, therefore, we provide a detailed synthesis<br />
of a 1200-year palaeoenvironmental dataset derived from<br />
a climatically-sensitive, sedimentary sequence located in the<br />
Inca heartland. New geochemical (C/N and δ 13 C) and floral<br />
(plant macrofossil, macrocharcoal and Myriophyllum pollen)<br />
proxy data, chosen for their ability to reflect both palaeoclimatic<br />
and anthropogenic change, are combined here for<br />
the first time with existing palynological, faunal and sedi-<br />
Table 1. 210 Pb dates for Marcacocha (adapted from Chepstow-<br />
Lusty et al., 2007). Determinations followed Flynn et al. (1968).<br />
Depth (cm) Calendar date<br />
0–2 AD 1991±0.1<br />
10–12 AD 1958±0.1<br />
18–20 AD 1926±0.4<br />
27–29 AD 1918±0.5<br />
39–41 AD 1907±0.4<br />
47–49 AD 1905±2.9<br />
50–51 AD 1845±8.3<br />
mentological records from the sequence, in order to establish<br />
a palaeoenvironmental framework against which human responses<br />
can be assessed.<br />
2 Site selection<br />
The best continuous, multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental<br />
archive from the Cuzco region is the 4200-year record derived<br />
from the lake site of Marcacocha (Chepstow-Lusty et<br />
al., 1996, 1998, 2003). Located within the Patacancha Valley,<br />
some 12 km north of both the major Inca settlement of Ollantaytambo<br />
and the Urubamba River, Marcacocha (13 ◦ 13 ′ S,<br />
72 ◦ 12 ′ W, 3355 m above sea-level [a.s.l.]) is a small (ca.<br />
40 m diameter) circular, in-filled lake set within a larger<br />
basin (Fig. 1). The surrounding slopes constitute an ancient,<br />
anthropogenically-modified landscape, being extensively<br />
covered with Inca and pre-Inca agricultural terraces<br />
(Fig. 2). The in-filled lake site is separated from the Patacancha<br />
River by the promontory of Huchuy Aya Orqo, which<br />
contains stratified archaeological deposits that range from the<br />
Early Horizon period (ca. 800 BC) to Inca times (Kendall<br />
and Chepstow-Lusty, 2006). Today, the flat area adjacent to<br />
the in-filled lake provides space for minor potato cultivation<br />
and is used for grazing cattle, sheep, goats and horses. In<br />
the past, the site was also important for pasturing camelids,<br />
owing to its location along a former trans-<strong>Andean</strong> caravan<br />
route that linked the Amazonian selva in the east to the main<br />
western highland trading centres. Because the Patacancha<br />
River is fed partially by melt-water, it flows throughout the<br />
year, which may explain why the basin always remains wet<br />
despite a markedly seasonal climate. The constancy of the<br />
river is likely to have been a significant factor in ensuring<br />
both the long-term occupation of the site and also the exceptional<br />
preservation of the highly organic sediments and the<br />
faunal/floral remains they contain.<br />
In 1993, an 8.25 m stratigraphically continuous sediment<br />
core that spans the last 4200 years was recovered from the<br />
centre of the basin for high-resolution palaeoecological analysis<br />
(Chepstow-Lusty et al., 1996, 1998, 2003). The chronology<br />
for the sequence was derived from seven 210 Pb dates<br />
Clim. Past, 5, 375–388, 2009 www.clim-past.net/5/375/2009/
A. J. Chepstow-Lusty et al.: Putting the rise of the Inca Empire within a climatic and land management context 377<br />
Table 2. Bulk radiocarbon dates from Marcacocha (adapted from Chepstow-Lusty et al., 2007). Calibration was carried out using the<br />
SHCal04 dataset (McCormac et al., 2004) in conjunction with version 5.0 of the CALIB calibration program (Stuiver and Reimer, 1993) and<br />
are cited as years before present (AD 1950).<br />
Depth<br />
(cm)<br />
Laboratory<br />
Reference<br />
101–102 Beta<br />
190 482<br />
14 C age<br />
(yr BP)<br />
Median<br />
calendar date<br />
400±40 AD 1540 1σ<br />
2σ<br />
115–123 Q-2917 620±50 AD 1360 1σ<br />
2σ<br />
210–218 Q-2918 1460±50 AD 630 1σ<br />
2σ<br />
310–318 Q-2919 1805±50 AD 280 1σ<br />
2σ<br />
478–486 Q-2920 2245±50 BC 240 1σ<br />
2σ<br />
610–618 Q-2921 3650±60 BC 1960 1σ<br />
2σ<br />
(Table 1) and six radiocarbon dates (Table 2). Confirmation<br />
of the sensitivity of the site to palaeoclimatic change comes<br />
from sub-centennial pollen analysis of the sequence, which<br />
documents the lake-level response to regional precipitation<br />
changes and records a series of aridity episodes broadly corresponding<br />
with regional cultural transitions indicated by<br />
an independently-derived archaeological chronology (Fig. 3)<br />
(Chepstow-Lusty et al., 2003; Bauer, 2004). Other previous<br />
work carried out on the sequence includes an assessment<br />
of basic sedimentological characteristics (such as carbonate,<br />
organic and non-organic content) and, from the top 1.9 m, an<br />
analysis of oribatid mite remains, thought to be an indirect<br />
indicator of large domestic herbivore densities in the catchment<br />
over the past ca. 1200 years (Chepstow-Lusty et al.,<br />
2007).<br />
2.1 New proxies<br />
In order to help understand potential links between past environmental<br />
and cultural change in the region, the existing<br />
palaeoenvironmental datasets from Marcacocha were assessed<br />
alongside new, complementary proxy analyses.<br />
Calibrated date<br />
AD 1458–AD 1510 (54%)<br />
AD 1554–AD 1556 (1%)<br />
AD 1574–AD 1621 (45%)<br />
AD 1454–AD 1626 (100%)<br />
AD 1315–AD 1357 (52%)<br />
AD 1381–AD 1419 (48%)<br />
AD 1295–AD 1437 (100%)<br />
AD 568–AD 678 (100%)<br />
AD 440–AD 485 (3%)<br />
AD 537–AD 775 (97%)<br />
AD 138–AD 199 (20%)<br />
AD 206–AD 403 (80%)<br />
AD 30–AD 37 (1%)<br />
AD 51–AD 543 (99%)<br />
BC 384–BC 160 (95%)<br />
BC 133–BC 117 (5%)<br />
BC 479–BC 470 (
378 A. J. Chepstow-Lusty et al.: Putting the rise of the Inca Empire within a climatic and land management context<br />
E C U A D O R<br />
P A C I F I C O C E A N<br />
3380<br />
terraced<br />
field<br />
to<br />
Machu Picchu<br />
C O L O M B I A<br />
P E R U<br />
Lima<br />
contours<br />
(heights in metres)<br />
0 metres 50<br />
terraced field<br />
with archaeological<br />
excavation<br />
Cuzco<br />
3390<br />
3375<br />
3370<br />
3385<br />
HUCHUY AYA ORQO<br />
Patacancha River<br />
Ollantaytambo<br />
B R A Z I L<br />
Lake Titicaca<br />
Fig. 1. Location maps.<br />
3365<br />
3380<br />
3360<br />
B O L I V I A<br />
3390<br />
3385<br />
3380<br />
3375<br />
3355<br />
Marcacocha<br />
3375<br />
Urubamba<br />
grazing, potatoes<br />
and area of<br />
sedge growth<br />
72˚W<br />
CUZCO<br />
3395<br />
3390<br />
3355<br />
3385<br />
72˚W<br />
3380<br />
3375<br />
‘infilled’<br />
Marcacocha<br />
Calca<br />
pollen<br />
core<br />
3360<br />
0 km 20<br />
3365<br />
Pisac<br />
N<br />
Rio Urubamba<br />
either been washed in by surface run-off or blown in from the<br />
immediate catchment.<br />
The value of palynology in helping to determine environmental<br />
and anthropogenic change across a landscape is well<br />
documented. Pollen from the entire Marcacocha sequence<br />
has been analysed previously (Chepstow-Lusty et al., 1996,<br />
1998, 2003), although the Myriophyllum data have not hitherto<br />
been published. Myriophyllum pollen represents a group<br />
of hardy aquatic plants (the watermilfoils) that favour shallow,<br />
nutrient-rich conditions and are often associated with<br />
human impact and disturbance (e.g. Smith and Barko, 1990).<br />
Organic matter is an important constituent of lake sediments,<br />
the primary source of which is the residue of former<br />
biota (mostly plants) located in and around the lake itself<br />
(Meyers and Teranes, 2001). Although the various processes<br />
of sedimentation and diagenesis (especially degradation)<br />
will both alter the geochemical signature and reduce the<br />
concentration of organic matter ultimately preserved in the<br />
lake deposits, analyses can often still distinguish between allochthonous<br />
and autochthonous sources and determine the<br />
nature of that original material (e.g. Hodell and Schelske,<br />
1998). Carbon/nitrogen ratios (C/N) and δ 13 C data obtained<br />
from organic matter are especially useful in providing an insight<br />
into the amount and source of organic material entering<br />
Lucre<br />
3370<br />
3375<br />
3380<br />
14.5˚S<br />
N<br />
3385<br />
Fig. 2. General view north-eastwards up the Patacancha Valley over<br />
the infilled lake of Marcacocha (defined by the circle of Juncaceae<br />
vegetation), surrounded by Inca and pre-Inca terraces. The promontory<br />
on which the archaeological site of Huchuy Aya Orqo is found<br />
lies behind Marcacocha and projects from the eastern side of the<br />
valley towards the Patacancha River, which flows throughout the<br />
year. Notice the concentration of pasture adjacent to Marcacocha<br />
and the proximity of the Inca road
A. J. Chepstow-Lusty et al.: Putting the rise of the Inca Empire within a climatic and land management context 379<br />
AD<br />
BC<br />
1500<br />
1000<br />
500<br />
0<br />
500<br />
1000<br />
1500<br />
2000<br />
⊗<br />
⊗<br />
⊗<br />
⊗<br />
⊗<br />
⊗<br />
Inorganics<br />
0 20 40 60 80<br />
%<br />
Cyperaceae<br />
0 2 4 6 8 1012<br />
x10 3<br />
Alnus<br />
0 20 40<br />
x10 2<br />
Chenopodiaceae<br />
0 10 20<br />
Concentration (number of pollen grains per cm 3 )<br />
0 20 40 60 80<br />
x10 2<br />
0 10 20<br />
x10<br />
Post-<br />
Inca<br />
Killke<br />
Qotakalli<br />
F<br />
O<br />
R<br />
M<br />
A<br />
T<br />
I<br />
V<br />
E<br />
Inca<br />
Wari<br />
Cultural stratigraphy<br />
Fig. 3. Inorganic content (percentage) and pollen concentration diagram of selected taxa at Marcacocha plotted against age (adapted from<br />
Chepstow-Lusty et al., 2003). Filled rectangle indicates range of 210 Pb dates (see Table 1); shaded circles indicate calibrated radiocarbon<br />
dates (see Table 2). The independently-derived archaeological chronology for the Cuzco region is also indicated (Bauer, 2004). Shaded<br />
horizontal bands denote periods of aridity as inferred from the Cyperaceae record (Chepstow-Lusty et al., 2003).<br />
The range of δ 13 C values of phytoplankton is generally indistinguishable<br />
from the organic matter produced by terrestrial<br />
C3 plants (−20 to −30‰). However, these values are usually<br />
markedly different from those obtained from material<br />
derived from both aquatic and terrestrial C4 plants (the latter<br />
including maize, some grasses and sedges), which are generally<br />
around −8 to −13‰ (O’Leary, 1981, 1988). Under<br />
certain circumstances, however (such as a limitation of dissolved<br />
CO2 or conditions of high pH), this apparently clear<br />
distinction between C4 and other plant sources breaks down<br />
and δ 13 C values derived from C3 algal material can become<br />
as high as −9‰, comparable with values obtained from C4<br />
plant material (Meyers and Teranes, 2001). In addition, δ 13 C<br />
values derived from algal organic matter can also be unduly<br />
influenced by environmental factors such as soil erosion, the<br />
use of fertilisers or the presence of livestock sewage, all of<br />
which can potentially alter nutrient (principally nitrate and<br />
phosphate) delivery rates to the lake (Meyers and Teranes,<br />
x10 2<br />
Ambrosia<br />
Maize<br />
Early Middle Late<br />
Archaic<br />
1500<br />
1000<br />
500<br />
0<br />
500<br />
1000<br />
1500<br />
2000<br />
2001). Given these potential uncertainties in interpreting the<br />
δ 13 C signal, therefore, it is important to consider these data<br />
alongside other indicators of organic matter origin, such as<br />
C/N ratios and plant macrofossil evidence.<br />
3 Methods<br />
Three sets of 1 cm 3 volumetric sediment sub-samples were<br />
taken every centimetre throughout the top 1.9 m of the Marcacocha<br />
sequence, providing a ca. 6-year temporal resolution<br />
that spans the last 1200 years (assuming constant sedimentation<br />
rates).<br />
3.1 Plant macrofossils<br />
One set of sediment sub-samples was disaggregated in<br />
deionised water and macrofossils, including seeds and<br />
www.clim-past.net/5/375/2009/ Clim. Past, 5, 375–388, 2009<br />
AD<br />
BC
380 A. J. Chepstow-Lusty et al.: Putting the rise of the Inca Empire within a climatic and land management context<br />
Age (years AD)<br />
1900<br />
1800<br />
1700<br />
1600<br />
1500<br />
1400<br />
1300<br />
1200<br />
1100<br />
1000<br />
900<br />
800<br />
Marcacocha<br />
u<br />
u<br />
⊗<br />
⊗<br />
Cyperaceae<br />
(×103 cm-3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12<br />
)<br />
M<br />
M<br />
M<br />
M<br />
M<br />
M<br />
Chenopodiaceae<br />
(×10 cm-3 0 10 20 30 40<br />
)<br />
Alnus (×102 cm-3 )<br />
0 20 40<br />
Myriophyllum<br />
(×10 cm-3 0 20 40 60<br />
)<br />
Macrocharcoal<br />
(×10 cm-3 0 10<br />
)<br />
C/N<br />
10 20 30<br />
TOC%<br />
0 20 40<br />
0 20 40 60 80<br />
Juncaceae seeds<br />
(cm -3 )<br />
δ<br />
-28<br />
13 C (‰)<br />
Charophyte<br />
gyrogonites<br />
(×10 cm-3 0 10 20<br />
)<br />
-26<br />
0 1 2 3<br />
0 20 40 60 80<br />
Mites (cm -3 )<br />
Fig. 4. Selected proxies and pollen taxa plotted against depth. Filled diamonds indicate 210 Pb dates (see Table 1); shaded circles indicate<br />
calibrated radiocarbon dates (see Table 2). ‘M’ denotes occurrence of maize pollen; horizontal dashed lines delineate zones discussed in text.<br />
Absence of data in certain proxies between ca. AD 1320 and 1400 reflects where material sampled for radiocarbon dating is now missing<br />
(between 115 and 123 cm depth).<br />
charophyte gyrogonites, were then hand-picked under a lowpower<br />
dissecting microscope (Fig. 4).<br />
3.2 Charcoal analysis<br />
A second set of sediment sub-samples was oxidized with<br />
30% hydrogen peroxide in test tubes placed in a hot water<br />
bath at 60 ◦ C for 2–4 h. The residue was then sieved and<br />
charcoal particles >125 µm counted using a low-power dissecting<br />
microscope. For analytical purposes, the raw charcoal<br />
accumulation rate data (C) were first interpolated to 7year<br />
time-steps, a value that corresponds approximately to<br />
the median temporal resolution of the entire charcoal record<br />
(Higuera et al., 2007, 2008) (Fig. 5a). The resulting interpolated<br />
data (Ci) were then separated into background (Cb)<br />
and peak (Cp) components (Fig. 5b). Low-frequency background<br />
variations in a charcoal record (Cb) represent changes<br />
in charcoal production, sedimentation, mixing and sampling,<br />
and are removed to obtain a residual series of “peak” events<br />
(Cp), i.e. Cp = Ci−Cb (Fig. 5c). It is assumed that Cp itself<br />
comprises two sub-components: Cnoise, representing variability<br />
in sediment mixing, sampling and analytical and naturally<br />
occurring noise; and Cfire, representing charcoal input<br />
from local fire events (likely to be related to the occurrence<br />
of one or more local fires occurring within ca. 1 km of the<br />
site; Higuera et al., 2007). For each sample, a Gaussian mixture<br />
model was used to identify the Cnoise distribution, the<br />
Post-<br />
Inca<br />
99th percentile of which was then used to define a threshold<br />
separating samples into “fire” and “non-fire” events (Higuera<br />
et al., 2008). The Cb component was estimated by means<br />
of a locally-weighted regression using a 500-yr window; in<br />
all cases, the window width used was that which maximized<br />
the signal-to-noise index and the goodness-of-fit between<br />
the empirical and modelled Cp distributions. All numerical<br />
treatments were carried out using the CharAnalysis program<br />
(© Philip Higuera). Fire history was described by quantifying<br />
the variation of fire return intervals (FRI, years between<br />
two consecutive fire events) over time, and smoothed using a<br />
locally-weighted regression with a 1000-yr window (Fig. 5d<br />
and e).<br />
3.3 Organic matter geochemistry<br />
13 C/ 12 C ratios were measured by combustion of the final set<br />
of sub-samples in a Carlo Erba 1500 elemental analyser online<br />
to a VG TripleTrap and Optima dual-inlet mass spectrometer,<br />
with δ 13 C values calculated to the VPDB scale<br />
using a within-run laboratory standard (BROC1) calibrated<br />
against NBS-19 and NBS-22. Replicate analysis of wellmixed<br />
samples indicated an absolute precision of
A. J. Chepstow-Lusty et al.: Putting the rise of the Inca Empire within a climatic and land management context 381<br />
a.<br />
CHAR<br />
(pieces cm -2 yr -1 )<br />
b.<br />
CHAR<br />
(pieces cm -2 yr -1 )<br />
c.<br />
Peak magnitude<br />
(pieces cm -2 yr -1 )<br />
d.<br />
FRI<br />
(yr fire -1 )<br />
e.<br />
Fire density (x20)<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
600<br />
400<br />
200<br />
0<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
0<br />
0.3<br />
0.2<br />
0.1<br />
1000<br />
1200<br />
1400<br />
1600<br />
Age (years AD)<br />
mean FRI = 82 yr [41-135]<br />
N FRI = 13<br />
1800<br />
0<br />
0 200 400 600 800<br />
FRI (yr fire -1 )<br />
0<br />
2000<br />
Fire events<br />
Fig. 5. Fire event reconstruction based on the raw charcoal accumulation<br />
rate (CHAR); see text for details. (a) represents the<br />
raw CHAR data interpolated to constant time intervals (Ci) using<br />
a 7-year running mean (black columns), with the background signal<br />
(Cb) also shown (grey line); (b) de-trended CHAR data (red lines<br />
denote threshold window, see text); (c) residual peaks and magnitude<br />
of detected fire events (+); (d) fire return interval (black line),<br />
inferred from time since last34 fire (grey squares), and simulated fire<br />
frequency (red line); (e) distribution of fire density.<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
Fire frequency<br />
(fires 1000-yr -1 )<br />
levels of inorganic sources from erosion and nutrients arising<br />
from livestock entering the lake. Replicate analysis of wellmixed<br />
samples indicated an absolute precision of
382 A. J. Chepstow-Lusty et al.: Putting the rise of the Inca Empire within a climatic and land management context<br />
of the shallow water plant taxon Myriophyllum remain initially<br />
low, before undergoing expansion in the later part of<br />
this interval. C/N ratios fall abruptly from their initial peak<br />
of ca. 35, to return to values oscillating around 20 for the<br />
rest of the zone. δ 13 C increases notably in a step-wise fashion<br />
at the beginning of the interval to reach pre-AD 880 levels,<br />
but then decreases once again (to ca. −28‰) just before<br />
the end of the zone, when values once again recover to ca.<br />
−27‰. Macrocharcoal and charophyte gyrogonite levels remain<br />
suppressed for most of the interval, whereas oribatid<br />
mite abundances show a gradual increase.<br />
4.3 AD 1100–1400<br />
High concentrations of Alnus pollen are noted for the first<br />
time from the very beginning of this interval. In addition,<br />
Juncaceae seeds become prominent, reflecting the importance<br />
of this family as a major component of the lakeside<br />
vegetation. Synchronously, charophyte oospores and<br />
macrocharcoal concentrations also increase notably, the latter<br />
providing evidence for three significant fire events during<br />
this interval (Fig. 5c). C/N ratios oscillate at values >20,<br />
whereas δ 13 C experiences a progressively positive trend, increasing<br />
by around 1‰ from initial values of ca. −27‰.<br />
There is a distinct but short-lived decline in %TOC (of<br />
around 30%) at ca. AD 1170 that is also mirrored by a similar<br />
event in the %TN record.<br />
4.4 AD 1400–1540<br />
This interval is notable for the continued rise in Alnus pollen<br />
concentrations to the highest values in the sequence (peaking<br />
ca. AD 1450). This period also contains a significant<br />
decline in δ 13 C which, despite a variable signal, reaches a<br />
value of almost −28‰ before recovering at the very end of<br />
the zone. C/N ratios also decline over this interval, but much<br />
more gradually. At the end of the zone, C/N ratios also undergo<br />
a rapid increase from around 15 to almost 28, (seemingly<br />
leading the increase in δ 13 C slightly), before dropping<br />
back to ca. 20. This pattern is almost exactly the reverse<br />
of the %TN signal. Oribatid mite concentrations undergo a<br />
marked rise in the second half of the interval, only then to<br />
decline suddenly. Macrocharcoal levels are, once again, relatively<br />
suppressed over this period.<br />
4.5 Post AD 1540<br />
Concentrations of Alnus pollen generally decline throughout<br />
this zone, which is generally the converse of Cyperaceae<br />
pollen concentrations, which increase notably from<br />
around AD 1800. Although Juncaceae seed and macrocharcoal<br />
concentrations remain relatively steady throughout, they<br />
both experience marked, short-lived peaks around AD 1780<br />
(Juncaceae seed concentrations also briefly peaking around<br />
AD 1560). C/N ratios almost never dip below 15 throughout<br />
the entire zone, and they also experience a marked peak at<br />
ca. AD 1780. Interestingly, concentrations of charophytes<br />
and oribatid mite remains appear to co-vary inversely, with<br />
the principal mite peak (and minimum charophyte values)<br />
occurring ca. AD 1750. This interval is also characterised<br />
by the highest fire frequency of the entire record, with eight<br />
major fire events being identified (Fig. 5c).<br />
5 Interpretation and discussion<br />
5.1 Prior to AD 880<br />
During much of the first millennium AD, the pollen record<br />
indicates little evidence for sustained agriculture at Marcacocha<br />
(see also Fig. 3). Indeed, Chenopodiaceae pollen,<br />
which probably includes a number of high altitude-favouring<br />
cultivars such as Chenopodium quinoa, is rare (Chepstow-<br />
Lusty et al., 2003), suggesting particularly suppressed, cool<br />
temperatures over this period. Furthermore, the sediments in<br />
this interval are characterised by a lower %TOC than subsequent<br />
periods (colder climate, lower organic productivity),<br />
suggesting greater erosion in the immediate catchment,<br />
bringing in more inorganic material. Although human population<br />
levels would have been meagre, some anthropogenic<br />
disturbance is possible (as suggested by the minor peaks in<br />
charcoal at the top of this interval). More importantly, however,<br />
since plant growth would have been slow and the vegetation<br />
sparse, any natural or human agents would have enhanced<br />
erosion as the topsoil would have been less stable.<br />
An examination of the radiocarbon dates shows that the sedimentation<br />
rate is lower during this interval than the earlier<br />
part of the first millennium AD, so it is not necessarily as<br />
simple as equating higher erosion and greater inorganic input<br />
with a higher sedimentation rate. Values of C/N >15 indicate<br />
that erosion was also bringing in terrestrial organic matter,<br />
which, alongside δ 13 C values of around −27‰, shows the<br />
dominance of C3 plants.<br />
Independent evidence from ice core, archaeological, archaeobotanical<br />
and geomorphological data indicate that<br />
much of this period was characterized by relatively low temperatures,<br />
a factor that would have encouraged concentration<br />
of human populations at lower altitudes (Johannessen<br />
and Hastorf, 1990; Seltzer and Hastorf, 1990; Thompson et<br />
al., 1995; Kendall and Chepstow-Lusty, 2006). A period of<br />
burning close to the upper limit of this interval suggests that<br />
there may latterly have been limited anthropogenic activity<br />
in the basin (Figs. 4 and 5c).<br />
5.2 AD 880–1100<br />
An increase in Cyperaceae pollen concentrations at the beginning<br />
of this period probably reflects sedge colonization<br />
at the lake margin as the lake-level reduced in response to<br />
increasingly arid conditions (Chepstow-Lusty et al., 2003).<br />
This interpretation is supported by a major peak in C/N and a<br />
corresponding minimum in δ 13 C (a combination indicative of<br />
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A. J. Chepstow-Lusty et al.: Putting the rise of the Inca Empire within a climatic and land management context 383<br />
abundant terrestrial plant material entering the lake from the<br />
catchment) and a short-lived peak in Chenopodiaceae pollen<br />
concentrations. This latter event (associated with the presence<br />
of maize pollen) indicates that increasing temperatures<br />
allowed limited agriculture (see Fig. 3 to compare the relative<br />
magnitude of this “peak” with that seen earlier in the record<br />
to emphasise the former importance of quinoa and related<br />
crops cultivated in this basin).<br />
From around AD 1000, however, chenopods and sedges<br />
decline in importance at the expense of the shallow-water<br />
taxon Myriophyllum, which suggests low lake-levels and increasing<br />
levels of nutrients, possibly associated with greater<br />
livestock using the pasture. This interpretation is supported<br />
by several proxies, including the progressive increase of both<br />
TN% and mite frequencies, and a decrease in δ 13 C values<br />
that, coupled with C/N ratios of ca. 20, suggest a significant<br />
C3 terrestrial input to the lake. Macrocharcoal levels<br />
remain suppressed throughout the zone (Figs. 4 and 5a–d),<br />
further implying that the basin was used for mostly pastoral<br />
purposes.<br />
5.3 AD 1100–1400<br />
The marked increase in Alnus pollen at the beginning of<br />
this interval reflects the rapid expansion into the immediate<br />
catchment (probably from lower altitudes) of Alnus acuminata.<br />
This is a tree species closely associated with the colonization<br />
of degraded soils and, subsequently, with agroforestry,<br />
because of its nitrogen-fixing properties, as well<br />
as its ability to grow fast and straight (Chepstow-Lusty and<br />
Winfield, 2000). This is the first sustained appearance of Alnus<br />
in the entire 4200-year record (Fig. 3), suggesting that<br />
the occasional pollen grains recorded prior to this are likely<br />
to represent long-distance transport. The notable increase in<br />
Juncaceae seeds indicate that lake-levels continued to drop,<br />
an interpretation supported by the rise in charophyte gyrogonites,<br />
a sustained increase in δ 13 C of around +1‰ across<br />
the zone (possibly due to an increase in C4 plants in the<br />
catchment) and C/N values generally in excess of 20. Combined,<br />
these data all point to a significant rise in temperature,<br />
though without any concurrent increase in precipitation<br />
(the hydrological requirements of A. acuminata probably being<br />
met year-round by the adjacent, glacially-fed Patacancha<br />
River).<br />
It is likely that a sustained warmer climate enabled human<br />
populations to return to traditional agricultural use of<br />
the Marcacocha Basin and the surrounding landscape, with<br />
pastoralism being pushed up to higher altitudes. Evidence of<br />
this is provided by the recovery of chenopod pollen concentrations,<br />
the presence of (rare) maize pollen and the decline<br />
in mite frequencies. Furthermore, heightened macrocharcoal<br />
values (Fig. 4) and the recognition of three significant fire<br />
events over this period (Fig. 5c) are likely to reflect increased<br />
burning and agricultural clearance. There is also evidence<br />
indicating the instigation of landscape transformation in the<br />
catchment; a brief yet marked reduction in %TOC at around<br />
AD 1170 suggests destabilization of the landscape (possibly<br />
due to terrace building), causing an increase in inorganic<br />
material being deposited in the lake. Only after this construction<br />
phase was complete, would erosion have been reduced<br />
and the landscape stabilized, after which the lake sediments<br />
became highly organic and experienced very little inorganic<br />
input over the next 650 years or so (Donkin, 1979).<br />
5.4 AD 1400–1540<br />
This interval, which coincides with a period of rapid Inca<br />
expansion outside of the Cuzco heartland, appears to have<br />
been relatively stable from a climatic point of view. Temperatures<br />
seemed to have remained warm, with precipitation<br />
(and corresponding lake-levels) being low. Despite this climatic<br />
stability, significant land-use changes occurred in the<br />
basin. The increasing commercial importance of the Patacancha<br />
Valley caravan route is reflected in the sharp rise<br />
in mite abundances from the mid-1400s, suggesting an increased<br />
density of large herbivores (particularly llamas) in<br />
the catchment (Chepstow-Lusty et al., 2007). This interpretation<br />
is supported by an increase in %TN, possibly related<br />
to higher levels of animal excreta originating from the lake<br />
margin. The influx of nutrients to the lake, coupled with<br />
likely disturbance generated by livestock, appears to have<br />
suppressed charophyte levels, which decline to almost zero<br />
by the end of the period. Low values of both C/N (ca. 15)<br />
and δ 13 C (ca. −28‰) are suggestive of increased aquatic<br />
vegetation; when coupled with the reduced charophyte levels<br />
and higher Juncaceae seed concentrations, boggy marginal<br />
conditions may be inferred. Even though there is limited evidence<br />
for maize (a C4 plant) being grown in the basin, this<br />
crop requires good drainage and so was likely to have been<br />
grown away from the immediate lake catchment (as is the<br />
case today); only crops such as potatoes were/are cultivated<br />
in the areas liable to inundation. Furthermore, there is only<br />
muted evidence for sustained burning of the landscape over<br />
this interval (Figs. 4 and 5), suggesting either that there was<br />
only limited crop production in the basin at that time, and/or<br />
that soil fertility (often maintained by periodic firing after<br />
harvests) was instead sustained by the use of animal fertilizer.<br />
It is also noticeable that Alnus pollen concentrations<br />
reach their highest levels in the entire sequence, suggesting<br />
accelerated agroforestry around the basin; this species was<br />
one of the most economic and symbolically important trees<br />
for the Inca (Chepstow-Lusty and Winfield, 2000).<br />
After about AD 1500, proxy signals at the very end of the<br />
zone witness some sharp shifts, including a marked decline<br />
in %TN and mite frequencies, a recovery in δ 13 C values, a<br />
continuing decline in Alnus pollen and a notable peak in Juncaceae<br />
seeds. These changes are likely to be linked to the<br />
collapse of the Inca Empire and the corresponding abandonment<br />
of the basin and cessation of regular llama caravan activity.<br />
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384 A. J. Chepstow-Lusty et al.: Putting the rise of the Inca Empire within a climatic and land management context<br />
5.5 Post AD 1540<br />
The marked recovery in charophyte gyrogonite concentrations<br />
at the beginning of this interval suggests a continuation<br />
of low lake-levels but a major decline in pasture usage. These<br />
inferences are supported by initially low mite abundances,<br />
declining C/N values and a recovery in δ 13 C (to ca. −26‰).<br />
A different world was imposed with the arrival of the Spanish.<br />
Against a backdrop of disease and falling population<br />
numbers, communities were often forced to migrate and/or<br />
compelled to work under the encomienda system (Chepstow-<br />
Lusty et al., 2007). Much of the previously cultivated landscape<br />
became rapidly overgrown and irrigation canals and<br />
terraces were no longer maintained, falling into neglect and<br />
disuse. A major part of the charcoal signal following the arrival<br />
of the Spanish (Fig. 4) probably represents the continual<br />
effort of the remaining population to clear agricultural land<br />
from rapidly colonizing shrubs and herbs.<br />
Mite abundances undergo one final increase from around<br />
ca. AD 1600, which probably reflects the introduction of<br />
large domesticated herbivores from the Old World, such as<br />
sheep, cattle, goats and horses, into this part of the Patacancha<br />
Valley. This increased use of the basin for pasturing<br />
animals is supported by macrocharcoal concentrations<br />
(Fig. 5a–d), which show sustained and significant burning<br />
events (presumably for clearance purposes) just prior to, and<br />
throughout, the 17th century. A hiatus in burning activity<br />
during much of the following century coincides with the collapse<br />
and subsequent recovery of mite frequencies and, by inference,<br />
livestock populations. Historical documents report<br />
the arrival in about AD 1719–1720 of an epidemic (probably<br />
smallpox) which wiped out nearly all the indigenous people<br />
in the Patacancha Valley (Glave and Remy, 1983) and,<br />
at one point, is known to have killed 600 people in a single<br />
day in Cuzco (Esquivel y Navia, 1980). This event not<br />
only overlapped with the occurrence of four intense El Niño<br />
events (manifesting as strong droughts) between 1715 and<br />
1736 (Carcelén Reluz, 2007), but also with the coldest conditions<br />
of the Little Ice Age (Thompson et al., 1988).<br />
A resumption of landscape burning accompanies the final<br />
decline in mite populations throughout the 19th and 20th centuries<br />
(Figs. 5a–d). It is interesting to note that several independent<br />
regional reconstructions of biomass burning activity<br />
in South America show a decreasing fire frequency for the<br />
past 500 years and attribute this pattern to a range of climatic<br />
controls (e.g. Bush et al., 2008; Marlon et al., 2008; Nevle<br />
and Bird, 2008). The record at Marcacocha, however, shows<br />
the opposite trend (i.e. that fire frequency increases over this<br />
period; Fig. 5d), suggesting that it is local human activity<br />
influencing the fire history of the basin, and not climatic factors.<br />
In the top part of the record, the decline of mites after<br />
ca. AD 1800 not only reflects a major drought (Tandeter,<br />
1991; Gioda and Prieto, 1999), but also the subsequent infilling<br />
of the lake. The uppermost sediments (younger than ca.<br />
AD 1830) consist of peats composed of wetland vegetation,<br />
dominated by Juncaceae; these no longer provide an environmental<br />
record comparable with the lake sediments below.<br />
6 A broader context<br />
The pattern of change witnessed at Marcacocha in the centuries<br />
that pre-dated the imperial expansion of the Inca can<br />
be summarized as: (1) a period of relative aridity developing<br />
from ca. AD 880, characterised by low lake-levels and a<br />
limited arable-based economy in the valley that gave way to<br />
more mixed agro-pastoralism at the beginning of the second<br />
millennium AD; and (2) an interval of elevated temperatures<br />
from ca. AD 1100 that probably lasted for four centuries<br />
or more (the upper limit is difficult to define). This latter,<br />
warmer period is of particular interest, since it witnessed significant<br />
human presence in the basin in terms of agriculture,<br />
early landscape modification and later trading activity. In<br />
order to properly understand the broader-scale cultural and<br />
climatic conditions over this interval, it is necessary to assess<br />
the extent to which events happening in one <strong>Andean</strong> valley<br />
may have reflected what was happening regionally. In part,<br />
this can be achieved by comparison of the Marcacocha record<br />
with other, independently derived datasets.<br />
The Quelccaya ice cap, located some 200 km to the southeast<br />
of Marcacocha at 5670 m asl in southern Peru, arguably<br />
provides the best-resolved climatic archive from the region<br />
(Thompson et al., 1984, 1986, 1988). Two overlapping<br />
cores, drilled though the ice to bedrock, provide a composite,<br />
annually-resolved record of the last 1500 years. While the<br />
use of proxies from this record as a yardstick for central <strong>Andean</strong><br />
climatic variability is not without controversy (in particular,<br />
the complex relationships between δ 18 O variability<br />
and temperature, and ice accumulation and regional precipitation;<br />
Thompson et al., 1988; Grootes et al., 1989; Ortlieb<br />
and Macharé 1993; Gartner, 1996; Thompson et al., 2000;<br />
Calaway 2005), one unambiguous dataset from the Quelccaya<br />
record is that of dust content. At present, dust layers<br />
form annually on the surface of the glacier during the dry<br />
season, when dominantly southerly to north-westerly winds<br />
pick up material from the bare, recently-harvested agricultural<br />
areas of the Altiplano (Thompson et al., 1984, 1988). It<br />
has been postulated that the two most prominent dust events<br />
from the 1500-year Quelccaya record (centring on AD 600<br />
and AD 920) may have their origin in anthropogenic activity,<br />
since they do not correspond with any marked climatic shifts.<br />
The latter of these two prominent dust events lasts around<br />
130 years and is characterized by a steady accumulation from<br />
AD 830 to a peak at AD 920, followed by a more rapid decline<br />
to about AD 960. It has been suggested that this pattern<br />
may be linked with intensified raised field agriculture<br />
around Lake Titicaca (Thompson et al., 1988) and/or may<br />
be representative of a wider spectrum of human activity in<br />
the region, including terrace construction (Erickson, 2000).<br />
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A. J. Chepstow-Lusty et al.: Putting the rise of the Inca Empire within a climatic and land management context 385<br />
At Marcacocha, this interval is represented by high concentrations<br />
of Cyperaceae pollen, supported by high C/N and<br />
low δ 13 C values, suggesting reduced lake-levels and a significant<br />
proportion of terrestrial plant matter entering the lake.<br />
Although no significant agricultural palynological indicators<br />
were found in the Quelccaya record to support the notion of<br />
anthropological activity within the landscape over this interval<br />
(Thompson et al., 1988), both chenopod (probably incorporating<br />
quinoa) and maize pollen are notable at Marcacocha,<br />
strongly suggesting agricultural use of the basin at this<br />
time.<br />
It is also worth noting that some authorities have used the<br />
Quelccaya ice core data, as well as sediment records from<br />
Lake Titicaca that are indicative of low lake-levels, to infer a<br />
serious drought at ca. AD 1000–1100 (e.g. Thompson et al.,<br />
1988; Abbott et al., 1997; Binford et al., 1997). Furthermore,<br />
it is argued that this protracted period of aridity may (or may<br />
not) have been influential in hastening the demise of both the<br />
Tiwanaku and Wari cultures, centred on the southern shores<br />
of Titicaca and around Ayacucho, respectively (e.g. Binford<br />
et al., 1997; Erickson, 1999, 2000).<br />
From the perspective of Marcacocha, the record there indicates<br />
that, although dry conditions began at least a century<br />
prior to ca. AD 1000 in the Cuzco region, temperatures<br />
remained suppressed at this time. These cooler conditions<br />
would have restricted the ability of cultures such as the Wari<br />
to exploit melt-water sustained higher altitudes for agricultural<br />
purposes. This contrasts markedly with conditions just<br />
a few hundred years later when, faced with similarly arid<br />
conditions, the Inca were able to take advantage of a warmer<br />
climate to exploit new, higher altitude agro-ecological zones<br />
and adapt their irrigation technologies to harness the yearround<br />
melt-water resources.<br />
The rich archaeological record around Cuzco can also help<br />
in understanding the Marcacocha data over this crucial interval.<br />
It is from ca. AD 1200 (although perhaps as early<br />
as ca. AD 1000) that the Inca people in the Cuzco region<br />
are recognized archaeologically by the occurrence of Killke<br />
pottery (Rowe, 1944; Bauer, 2004). While there is a long<br />
history of human occupation in the Marcacocha area, there<br />
is a marked increase in the frequency of archaeological finds<br />
dated to after ca. AD 1000, such as those from the promontory<br />
of Juchuy Aya Orqo, adjacent to the lake (Kendall and<br />
Chepstow-Lusty, 2006; Kosiba 2006). This is corroborated<br />
by the Marcacocha charcoal record, which also suggests a<br />
notable increase in anthropogenic activity in the valley from<br />
ca. AD 1150. These data all point to a dramatic expansion<br />
and/or migratory influx of populations from lower altitudes<br />
over this interval, possibly accompanied by growth in economic<br />
activities. Such local trends reflect more widespread<br />
movements recorded across the <strong>Andean</strong> highlands at this<br />
time. Starting around AD 1000, regional settlement patterns<br />
shifted from valley floor and lower valley slopes to higher<br />
altitudinal locations (Arkush, 2006; Covey, 2008; Bauer and<br />
Kellett, 2009). By around AD 1300, however, the Marca-<br />
cocha area was directly incorporated into the growing Inca<br />
state and, by AD 1400, major imperial institutions had been<br />
established in the nearby town of Ollantaytambo. The incorporation<br />
of the area into the Inca state is reflected by the<br />
high oribatid mite concentrations, which suggest an increasing<br />
intensity of llama caravans utilizing the pasture adjacent<br />
to Marcacocha.<br />
From an even broader perspective, the notion that temperatures<br />
were consistently higher than modern values during<br />
the 9th–14th centuries has received increasing attention in<br />
the Northern Hemisphere (Lamb, 1965; Hughes and Diaz,<br />
1994). The prevailing view of this interval, known commonly<br />
as the “Medieval Warm Period” (MWP), is that elevated<br />
temperatures were often only intermittently experienced<br />
and, in some regions, was apparently characterized<br />
instead by climatic anomalies such as prolonged drought,<br />
increased rainfall or a stronger monsoon system (Hughes<br />
and Diaz, 1994; Stine, 1994; Bradley et al., 2003; Zhang<br />
et al., 2008). However, evidence for the MWP being a<br />
global phenomenon is contentious, especially in the Southern<br />
Hemisphere, where there are few continuous, detailed<br />
palaeoclimatic records spanning this interval (Bradley, 2000;<br />
Broecker, 2001). Nevertheless, from the Marcacocha dataset<br />
we can infer that temperatures increased from ca. AD 1100<br />
(after a period of relative aridity in comparison to much of<br />
the first millennium AD) and that conditions remained warm<br />
and stable for several centuries thereafter.<br />
7 Conclusions<br />
This study highlights some of the environmental and cultural<br />
changes that took place in the Cuzco region during the late<br />
period of prehistory. The scale of anthropological manipulation<br />
and transformation of the landscape in the south-central<br />
Andes appears to have increased after ca. AD 1100, probably<br />
in response to a climatic backdrop that was relatively<br />
warm, dry and essentially stable. The development of major<br />
irrigated terracing technology may have been increasingly<br />
necessary in these regions to obviate conditions of seasonal<br />
water stress, thereby allowing efficient agricultural production<br />
at higher altitudes. The outcome of these strategies was<br />
greater long-term food security and the ability to feed large<br />
populations. Such developments were exploited by the Inca<br />
of the Cuzco Valley, who were emerging as the dominant ethnic<br />
group of the region as early as ca. AD 1200. A healthy<br />
agricultural surplus supported their economic and political<br />
potential, enabling them to subjugate other local independent<br />
states and to effectively centralize power in the Cuzco region<br />
by ca. AD 1400 (Bauer, 2004).<br />
Fully understanding the adaptive capacity-building strategies<br />
of the Inca in the face of demanding climatic conditions<br />
is still at an early stage. However, their success has clear<br />
implications for both rural and urban <strong>Andean</strong> communities<br />
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386 A. J. Chepstow-Lusty et al.: Putting the rise of the Inca Empire within a climatic and land management context<br />
facing the environmental challenges currently being posed<br />
by global warming.<br />
Acknowledgements. We would like to thank the Palaeoenvironments<br />
Laboratory and the Centre of Bioarchaeology and Ecology<br />
at Montpellier University 2 for supporting this investigation,<br />
and gratefully acknowledge additional financial support from the<br />
CNRS and the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Associación<br />
Ecosistemas Andinos (ECOAN) in Cuzco also provided invaluable<br />
facilities. We also thank K. Bennett for initiating the work at<br />
Marcacocha, A. Cundy (University of Brighton) for carrying out<br />
the 210 Pb dating, A. Kendall and the Cusichaca Trust for providing<br />
logistical support, and A. Tupayachi Herrera, C. A. Chutas and<br />
S. Echegaray for additional field assistance. Two anonymous<br />
reviewers invested much time and effort to help us improve and<br />
widen the scope of this paper, for which we are grateful.<br />
Edited by: D.-D. Rousseau<br />
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Abstract<br />
Human impacts on headwater fluvial systems in the<br />
northern and central Andes<br />
Carol P. Harden<br />
Department of <strong>Geography</strong> 304 Burchfiel <strong>Geography</strong> Building, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, 37996-0925, USA<br />
Received 25 August 2005; received in revised form 6 June 2006; accepted 6 June 2006<br />
Available online 17 August 2006<br />
South America delivers more freshwater runoff to the ocean per km 2 land area than any other continent, and much of that<br />
water enters the fluvial system from headwaters in the Andes <strong>Mountain</strong>s. This paper reviews ways in which human occupation of<br />
high mountain landscapes in the Andes have affected the delivery of water and sediment to headwater river channels at local to<br />
regional scales for millennia, and provides special focus on the vulnerability of páramo soils to human impact. People have<br />
intentionally altered the fluvial system by damming rivers at a few strategic locations, and more widely by withdrawing surface<br />
water, primarily for irrigation. Unintended changes brought about by human activities are even more widespread and include<br />
forest clearance, agriculture, grazing, road construction, and urbanization, which increase rates of rainfall runoff and accelerate<br />
processes of water erosion. Some excavations deliver more sediment to river channels by destabilizing slopes and triggering<br />
processes of mass-movement.<br />
The northern and central Andes are more affected by human activity than most high mountain regions. The wetter northern<br />
Andes are also unusual for the very high water retention characteristics of páramo (high elevation grass and shrub) soils, which<br />
cover most of the land above 3000 m. Páramo soils are important regulators of headwater hydrology, but human activities that<br />
promote vegetation loss and drying cause them to lose water storage capacity. New data from a case study in southern Ecuador<br />
show very low bulk densities (median 0.26 g cm − 3 ), high organic matter contents (median 43%), and high water-holding capacities<br />
(12% to 86% volumetrically). These data document wetter soils under grass than under tree cover. Effects of human activity on the<br />
fluvial system are evident at local scales, but difficult to discern at broader scales in the regional context of geomorphic adjustment<br />
to tectonic and volcanic processes.<br />
© 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.<br />
Keywords: Human impact; Soil erosion; Fluvial geomorphology; Soil moisture; Andes<br />
1. Introduction<br />
The Andes <strong>Mountain</strong>s are the primary headwater<br />
region of the continent of South America, which<br />
delivers more freshwater runoff to the ocean per km 2<br />
land area than any other continent. Assessments of all<br />
natural freshwater resources indicate that the natural<br />
E-mail address: charden@utk.edu.<br />
Geomorphology 79 (2006) 249–263<br />
0169-555X/$ - see front matter © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.<br />
doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.06.021<br />
www.elsevier.com/locate/geomorph<br />
internal freshwater resources of South America are<br />
second only to those of Asia (Table 1, FAO, 2003a).<br />
Rivers in the Andes, like rivers in mountain regions<br />
across the globe, respond to gradients, material properties,<br />
and inputs of water and sediment. Unlike most<br />
mountain drainage basins, however, those of the tropical<br />
Andes have been population centers for millennia and<br />
are locations of major cities. The rich history of human<br />
habitation, especially in the northern Andes, and the
250 C.P. Harden / Geomorphology 79 (2006) 249–263<br />
Table 1<br />
World water resources by continent (FAO, 2003a)<br />
Continent Total water resources<br />
km 3 − 1<br />
yr<br />
Asia 12,461.0 28.5<br />
South America 12,380.0 28.3<br />
North and Central<br />
America<br />
7443.1 17.0<br />
Europe 6619.4 15.2<br />
Africa 3950.2 9.0<br />
Oceania 910.7 2.1<br />
World 43,764.3 100<br />
% of world freshwater<br />
resources<br />
rapid economic development of <strong>Andean</strong> countries<br />
during the past half-century make this an especially<br />
interesting region in which to examine effects of human<br />
activities on fluvial geomorphology. Although physical<br />
processes by which humans affect runoff, erosion, and<br />
sedimentation are not unique to the Andes, examination<br />
of the intensity and variety of human uses of <strong>Andean</strong><br />
landscapes offers a different perspective on human im-<br />
Fig. 1. Map of the northern and central Andes.<br />
pacts on fluvial systems from that obtained in the northern<br />
hemisphere.<br />
Most (85%) of the continent of South America drains to<br />
the Atlantic Ocean. Brazil, the largest country, contains the<br />
most fresh water, but mean annual internal freshwater<br />
resources per area are greater in Colombia (1.85 m/yr),<br />
Ecuador (1.52 m/yr), Peru (1.26 m/yr), and Venezuela<br />
(0.79 m/yr) than in Brazil (0.63 m/yr)(FAO, 2003a).<br />
Focusing on the five tropical countries of Venezuela,<br />
Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia that form the<br />
<strong>Andean</strong> headwaters of the Amazon (Fig. 1), this paper<br />
reviews deliberate and unintentional impacts of human<br />
activities on headwater rivers in the northern and central<br />
Andes, and highlights human activities that increase<br />
overland rainfall runoff and cause more sediment to<br />
enter river channels. Zooming in from the spatial scales of<br />
a region and countries to the scales of a watershed and<br />
small plots, it investigates the unusual characteristics and<br />
hydrologic importance of páramo soils of the northern<br />
Andes and comments on the relative importance of human<br />
impacts at different spatial scales.
2. Regional setting<br />
2.1. The physical setting<br />
The cordilleras of the Andes divide the Pacific from<br />
Atlantic drainages and capture and regulate the flow of<br />
water for most of the continent of South America. On the<br />
Atlantic side, the Amazon River basin comprises 34% of<br />
the land area of South America. Other major drainage<br />
basins are the Orinoco (Atlantic), Magdelena (Caribbean),<br />
and Paraná (Atlantic). The highest peaks reach to nearly<br />
7000 m above sea level. On the Atlantic and Pacific sides,<br />
relief is dramatic and hillslopes and river gradients are<br />
steep. Westward-flowing rivers from southern Ecuador to<br />
central Chile deliver water to arid lands as they flow from<br />
mountain to ocean. Most of the region is tectonically<br />
active, and sections of it are volcanically active.<br />
Rainfall tends to increase with elevation. Moisture<br />
reaches the mountains primarily from the east, but rainfall<br />
in some Inter<strong>Andean</strong> valleys and on the western flank of<br />
the cordillera is also influenced by weather originating in<br />
the Pacific. ENSO effects are evident, although small<br />
differences in the intensity or penetration of ENSO events<br />
change ENSO influences in the higher mountains (Tarras-<br />
Wahlberg and Lane, 2003). The Magdelena River basin of<br />
Colombia has generally received less rain in El Niño years<br />
and more in the La Niña years (Restrepo and Kjerfve,<br />
2000). Similarly, pulses of deposition from <strong>Andean</strong> headwaters,<br />
recorded in floodplain sediment cores in the Beni<br />
and Mamore river basins, two Bolivian tributaries of the<br />
Amazon, were associated with La Niña events (Aalto<br />
et al., 2003). On a longer timescale, sediment cores<br />
extracted from one high, Amazon-draining lake on the<br />
western cordillera in Ecuador showed periodic episodes<br />
of high sedimentation rates that correlated well with<br />
Holocene ENSO fluctuations (Rodbelletal.,1999).<br />
The highest peaks are snow-capped. Below the snowline<br />
(ca. 4800–5000 m in Ecuador and Colombia) and<br />
above the upper limits of trees and most cultivated land<br />
(ca. 3000–3500 m), the northern Andes are characterized<br />
by the páramo environment. The páramo ecosystem, and,<br />
in particular, páramo soil, is considered to be the principal<br />
regulator of the terrestrial hydrological system of the<br />
northern Andes (Podwojewski and Poulenard, 2000;<br />
Hofstede, 2001). These soils, in Ecuador, Colombia, and<br />
Venezuela, consist of a very black, highly organic<br />
epipedon (A, Ah, and/or O horizons) discontinuously<br />
overlying an unrelated, inorganic surface (Fig. 2).<br />
Because mineral particles in páramo soils are eolian in<br />
origin, páramo soils near to and downwind from active<br />
volcanoes may be 1–2 m thick, while soils farther from<br />
ash sources or on glaciated surfaces may be only 20–<br />
C.P. Harden / Geomorphology 79 (2006) 249–263<br />
251<br />
30 cm deep. Páramo vegetation varies, but is most commonly<br />
grass (Calamagrostis sp., Stipa sp., and Agrostis<br />
sp.), with some shrubs in less disturbed sites. Organic<br />
matter decomposes very slowly in the moist, cool<br />
conditions that result from high elevation, frequent<br />
cloudiness, fog interception, and plentiful rainfall (ca.<br />
1000–2000 mm yr −1 ). Typical mean annual temperatures<br />
are 10–12 °C (Medina and Turcotte, 1999). Páramo soils<br />
are classified as Andosols or Histosols, depending on the<br />
organic matter content, which is typically around 30%.<br />
Low bulk-densities make them very sensitive to disturbance<br />
from humans and livestock. As in the páramo, the<br />
scarcity of trees in the drier puna grasslands of the central<br />
Andes is thought to result from anthropogenic burning<br />
and forest removal (Gade, 1999).<br />
Because the Andes are still tectonically active (Norabuena<br />
et al., 1998), the physical setting includes active<br />
volcanism, ongoing uplift, earthquakes, and high magnitude<br />
mass movements. Uplift has caused rivers to incise<br />
(Safran et al., 2005) and denudation rates to be high (Aalto<br />
et al., 2006). From Colombia to Bolivia, ten volcanoes<br />
have erupted since 1964 (Table 2), and six others erupted<br />
earlier in the 20th century. Volcanoes contribute sediment<br />
to fluvial systems by direct input, by producing bare slopes<br />
vulnerable to erosion processes, by blanketing the surrounding<br />
landscape with ash, and by oversteepening<br />
Fig. 2. Exposure of black páramo soil, under tussock grasses and<br />
perched on a fine-textured deposit, much lighter in color, Cajas<br />
National Park, Ecuador.
252 C.P. Harden / Geomorphology 79 (2006) 249–263<br />
Table 2<br />
Volcanoes active since 1964<br />
Country Volcano name Recent eruption<br />
Bolivia/Chile Irruputuncu 1995<br />
Colombia Galeras 2002<br />
Colombia Nevado del Ruiz 1991<br />
Colombia Purace 1977<br />
Ecuador Guagua Pichincha 2004<br />
Ecuador Reventador 2003<br />
Ecuador Sangay 2004<br />
Ecuador Tungurahua 2004<br />
Peru Sabancaya 2003<br />
Peru Ubinas 1969<br />
Source: Smithsonian Institution (2005).<br />
slopes, thus, making them vulnerable to landsliding. Historical<br />
reports indicate that a 1773 eruption of Tungurahua<br />
Volcano (Ecuador) dammed the Pastaza River, and that the<br />
same river had been dammed three times by eruptions in<br />
1918 (Zevallos, 1996). Ash, ice, and water in combination<br />
create lahars, which fill and alter river channels for long<br />
distances. Lahars produced by the 1985 eruption of<br />
Nevado del Ruiz volcano in Colombia moved a total of<br />
about 9×10 7 m 3 of lahar slurry to areas up to 104 km from<br />
the source (Pierson et al., 1990). In Ecuador, a lahar from<br />
an 1877 eruption of Cotopaxi volcano followed a river<br />
valley to the Pacific Ocean, over 250 km away (Hall,<br />
1977).<br />
Mass movements are important in delivering sediment<br />
to the river channels of the Andes (Table 3). On the<br />
east flanks of the Andes in Bolivia, where anthropogenic<br />
effects on erosion processes appear to have been<br />
minimal (Aalto et al., 2006), landsliding is widespread<br />
(Safran et al., 2005). In this region of steep slopes, mass<br />
movements are readily triggered by wet conditions and<br />
by earthquakes. The rugged topography favors landsliding<br />
and the formation of landslide dams. In an<br />
assessment of mass movements (rock and earth slides,<br />
debris avalanches, debris and mud flows) triggered by<br />
two earthquakes about 25 km north of Reventador Volcano<br />
in northeastern Ecuador, Schuster et al. (1996)<br />
found the greatest amount of property destruction to<br />
have been caused by flood surges of the main rivers,<br />
which had been near flood stage before large volumes of<br />
landslide debris were added to them. The largest flood<br />
surges were caused by the breaching of temporary<br />
landslide debris dams. In the case of the large 1993 slope<br />
failure at La Josefina (southern Ecuador), 30×10 6 m 3 of<br />
debris filled the channel of the Paute River for 1 km of<br />
its length (Plaza-Nieto and Zevallos, 1994). The<br />
engineered but catastrophic release of the landslide<br />
dam 33 days later re-formed the channel downstream,<br />
locally increasing the bed slope and causing rapid incision<br />
through the deposit.<br />
2.2. Population trends<br />
In the northern and central Andes, the cordillera of the<br />
Andes is not a single spine, but a region of multiple ranges<br />
with elevated valleys and plateaus. In the north, changing<br />
patterns of subduction of the Nazca plate under the South<br />
American plate have built parallel ranges, with high<br />
Inter<strong>Andean</strong> valleys between. This pattern is seen in<br />
Colombia, where three parallel north–south-trending<br />
ranges define the landscape, and in much of Ecuador,<br />
where a relatively well-defined Inter<strong>Andean</strong> valley is<br />
flanked by two parallel ranges. Farther south, the highest<br />
peaks lie east of the Altiplano. In this tropical region,<br />
higher elevation valleys and plains have long been favored<br />
for human settlement—daytime temperatures are<br />
pleasant, health-threatening insects and other disease<br />
vectors are rare, and soils support productive agriculture<br />
where moisture is adequate. Today, the Inter<strong>Andean</strong><br />
valleys contain major towns and cities, including Bogota,<br />
Colombia (2640 m), and Quito, Ecuador (2850 m).<br />
Cusco, Peru is at 3250 m, and La Paz, Bolivia between<br />
3300 and 3600 m. Bogotá had 6.8 million inhabitants in<br />
Table 3<br />
Recent, major mass movements<br />
Year Country Location Comments<br />
1962 Peru Nevados 13×10<br />
Huascaran<br />
6 m 3 , 400–500 persons<br />
killed a<br />
1970 Peru Nevados 30–50×10<br />
Huascaran<br />
6 m 3 , 18,000 killed;<br />
triggered by M 7.7 earthquake a<br />
1974 Peru Mayanmarca<br />
rockslide<br />
1985 Colombia Nevado del<br />
Ruiz lahars<br />
1987 Ecuador Reventador<br />
mass<br />
movements<br />
1993 Ecuador La Josefina<br />
rockslide<br />
1994 Colombia Paez<br />
landslides<br />
a USGS, 2005.<br />
b Martinez et al., 1995.<br />
c Pierson et al., 1990.<br />
d Schuster et al., 1996.<br />
e Plaza-Nieto and Zevallos, 1994.<br />
1.6×10 6 m 3 , created 150-m high<br />
dam on the Mantaro River, 450<br />
persons killed. b<br />
90×10 6 m 3 , killed over 23,000<br />
in Armero;<br />
triggered by volcanic eruption. c<br />
75–110 × 10 6 m 3 , ∼ 1000<br />
persons killed,<br />
earthquake-triggered rock and earth<br />
slides, debris avalanches, and<br />
debris and mud flows; most deaths<br />
from floods. d<br />
30×10 6 m 3 , N35 killed, debris dam<br />
on Paute River. e<br />
Thousands of slides in 250 km 2 area,<br />
earthquake triggered, 270 dead,<br />
1700 missing. a
2003, Quito had 1.3 million (in 2001), Cusco had over<br />
300,000 (in 2002), and La Paz had 789,585 (in 2001)<br />
(Citypopulation, 2006). Many contemporary settlements<br />
occupy sites with long histories of human use.<br />
In spite of significant rates of international emigration,<br />
populations of <strong>Andean</strong> countries continue to grow<br />
and to become more urbanized (Table 4). Fertility rates<br />
remain high by North American standards, ranging from<br />
2.6 (Colombia and Peru) to 3.9 (Bolivia), compared to<br />
1.9 (children per woman) in the United <strong>State</strong>s (Earthtrends,<br />
2003). Population increased dramatically between<br />
1950 and 2005 in the five countries of Bolivia,<br />
Columbia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela, although not<br />
all of the increase was in the <strong>Andean</strong> highlands.<br />
3. Deliberate human impacts on the <strong>Andean</strong> fluvial<br />
system<br />
As populations have grown and economies developed,<br />
countries have deliberately altered fluvial systems<br />
to take advantage of water resources. The two most<br />
significant intentional interventions are dams and water<br />
withdrawls. Major dams have been built for hydroelectric<br />
power generation and to store water for irrigation<br />
(Table 5). Abundant water and dramatic drops in elevation<br />
have allowed the northern <strong>Andean</strong> countries to<br />
become dependent on hydroelectric power. In Venezuela,<br />
60% of the power is hydroelectrically generated<br />
(Earthtrends, 2003). At least 60% of the electric power<br />
of Ecuador is generated at a single large dam, the Daniel<br />
Palacios Dam on the Paute River (Hofstede, 2005). By<br />
trapping sediment and altering flow, dams profoundly<br />
influence downstream reaches.<br />
Water withdrawls for irrigation are more widespread<br />
than dams. In Bolivia, Ecuador, and Peru, more than 80%<br />
of surface water withdrawls are for agricultural irrigation<br />
Table 4<br />
Population growth and urbanization by country<br />
Country Population 1 Annual<br />
population<br />
growth 1<br />
%<br />
growth<br />
2002 Rural<br />
Areas<br />
Urban<br />
Areas<br />
Population<br />
% increase 1<br />
Percent<br />
urban 2<br />
1950–2002 1965 1989<br />
Bolivia 8,705,000 0.3 3.8 221 40 51<br />
Colombia 43,495,000 0.0 2.7 246 54 69<br />
Ecuador 13,112,000 0.2 4.0 425 37 55<br />
Peru 26,523,000 0.7 2.6 248 52 70<br />
Venezuela 25,093,000 2.0 2.1 392 70 84<br />
Source: 1 Earthtrends, 2003, 2 Valladares and Prates Coelho, 1993.<br />
C.P. Harden / Geomorphology 79 (2006) 249–263<br />
Table 5<br />
Dams by country, as reported by FAO (1998–2002)<br />
Country Number of dams Reservoir storage<br />
Bolivia 5 large nd<br />
Colombia 26 large (N25×10 6 m 3 ) 9.1 km 3<br />
90 medium and small 3.4 km 3<br />
Ecuador 12 7.5 km 3<br />
Peru N3 2.7 km 3<br />
Venezuela 96 157 km 3<br />
(Table 6). Some irrigation systems, such as those used in<br />
Peru by the Incas and in northern Ecuador by pre-<br />
Hispanic populations (Knapp, 1991), pre-date the<br />
Spanish conquest by at least hundreds of years. The<br />
amount of water withdrawn for irrigation increased<br />
dramatically in the second half of the 20th century as a<br />
result of population growth, land reform, and government<br />
efforts to intensify agriculture. In Colombia, modern<br />
projects for public irrigation were initiated in 1936,<br />
and, in Bolivia, a commission began planning for public<br />
irrigation projects in 1938 (FAO, 1998–2002). Irrigation<br />
withdrawls in the <strong>Andean</strong> countries expanded following<br />
agrarian reform, which occurred from the 1950s (Bolivia)<br />
through the late 1960s (Peru). Irrigation has<br />
typically been small-scale (micro-irrigation), as landholdings<br />
are small (b5–10 ha) (e.g., White and Maldonado,<br />
1991), and hundreds of irrigation districts<br />
manage the withdrawl and distribution of irrigation<br />
water. Internationally available data on irrigation withdrawls,<br />
which aggregate data by country, reveal major<br />
increases in irrigation over recent decades, but do not<br />
separate <strong>Andean</strong> data from that of lowland drainages.<br />
Abstraction of water for irrigation reduces in-stream<br />
flows, especially in drier seasons. The extent to which<br />
abstraction affects geomorphically important flow levels<br />
in the Andes remains unexamined. Water added to the<br />
landscape by irrigation can reduce soil erosion by<br />
Table 6<br />
Water withdrawls by country and sector (FAO, 2003a)<br />
Country Internal<br />
renewable<br />
surface<br />
water km 3<br />
Total<br />
annual<br />
withdrawl<br />
as%of<br />
renewable<br />
water<br />
Withdrawls<br />
Agriculture Domestic Industry<br />
Bolivia 277 0.3% 87% 10% 3%<br />
Colombia 2112 0.5% 37% 59% 4%<br />
Ecuador 432 4.3% 82% 12% 6%<br />
Peru 1616 1.2% 86% 7% 7%<br />
Venezuela 700 0.8% 46% 44% 10%<br />
253
254 C.P. Harden / Geomorphology 79 (2006) 249–263<br />
improving protective vegetative cover, but too much<br />
water added can destabilize slopes and water added<br />
rapidly on steep slopes causes soil erosion.<br />
4. Human activities that increase soil erosion and<br />
sediment in rivers<br />
Sources of sediment in rivers include hillslopes and<br />
river channel erosion. Sediment is added to the fluvial<br />
system by overland flow, mass movement, deliberate<br />
dumping, or anthropogenic reworking of sediment stored<br />
in channel beds. All of these occur in the Andes. Studies<br />
across the globe have linked increases in sediment yields<br />
of rivers with changes in land use (e.g., Ostry, 1982;<br />
Walling, 1983). Forest clearance for cultivation increases<br />
sediment yields by two to three orders of magnitude<br />
(Ongley, 1996). Agriculture can also be a primary source<br />
of eroded sediment (Bennett, 1939).<br />
Irrigation increases river sediment loads, by reducing<br />
the flow and corresponding dilution effect, and also by<br />
conveying water across steep slopes with high erosion<br />
potential. Analysis of air photos from 1976 and 1989 and a<br />
field survey in 1999 of a 900-ha catchment in the southern<br />
Ecuadorian Andes found new gullies, which were attributed<br />
to poor construction and management of irrigation<br />
infrastructure (Vanacker et al., 2003b). Gully formation<br />
was observed to be a consequence of the spillover of water<br />
from open canals and irrigation reservoirs and of mismanagement<br />
of extra irrigation water. In a similar study of<br />
a different Ecuadorian watershed, the proximity of gullies<br />
to the river appeared to control differences in suspended<br />
sediment concentrations between two subcatchments<br />
(Vanacker et al., 2003a).<br />
Mining activities contribute suspended sediment as well<br />
as metal pollutants. Since the Spanish conquest, the Andes<br />
has been known for deposits of gold, silver, and other<br />
valuable metals. Gold mining remains active, and gold<br />
extraction more than doubled in Bolivia, Colombia, and<br />
Venezuela between 1950 and 1985 (United Nations, 1990).<br />
Gold production in the Portovelo–Zaruma mining district<br />
of western <strong>Andean</strong> Ecuador increased 80% between 1994<br />
and 1999 (Tarras-Wahlberg and Lane, 2003). Copper, iron,<br />
lead, manganese, and zinc are also extracted in large<br />
quantities (United Nations, 1990). In 1991, a database of<br />
geological deposits in the Andes that have already been<br />
mined, are currently being mined, or are under evaluation<br />
for mining contained over 3300 records (BRGM, 2001).<br />
Although effects of mining on fluvial systems in the Andes<br />
have been little studied, mines are typically located in<br />
remote areas and mining regulations not well enforced<br />
(Tarras-Wahlberg and Lane, 2003). Excavations on steep<br />
slopes send debris cascading into streams and also increase<br />
the frequency of landslides. Failures of tailings impoundment<br />
also send debris into rivers. In one study of the effects<br />
of gold mining in the Puyango River basin on the western<br />
flank of the Andes in Ecuador (Tarras-Wahlberg and Lane,<br />
2003), concentrations of suspended sediment derived from<br />
mining were apparent in drier years, but represented only a<br />
small proportion of the estimated sediment yield in wet<br />
years. Restrepo and Kjerfve (2000) cited gold mining in the<br />
Cauca basin of Colombia as an important contributor to<br />
high sediment concentrations in the Magdelena River,<br />
which has one of the highest sediment yields on the<br />
continent.<br />
Another form of mining that has affected fluvial systems<br />
is the in-stream removal of sand, gravel, and river<br />
Fig. 3. Homemade weir catches marketable sand at high flow in a headwater stream.
ocks for construction purposes (Fig. 3). In-stream extraction<br />
was widely practiced in <strong>Andean</strong> streams in Ecuador<br />
in the early 1990s (Harden, 1993) but has<br />
diminished greatly because of recognition of the environmental<br />
consequences and enactment and enforcement<br />
of new regulations. In-stream mining suspends sediment<br />
at all flow levels rather than only during runoff events. In<br />
mined river systems, then, rainfall is not a good predictor<br />
of suspended sediment loads.<br />
Steep gradients promote fluvial transport of sediments.<br />
Dams and reservoirs trap sediment, calling attention<br />
to the magnitude of sediment loads when<br />
reservoir storage capacity is lost. The Daniel Palacios<br />
dam on the Paute River in Ecuador originally, in 1983,<br />
contained 120 ×10 6 m 3 of storage capacity, but that<br />
capacity had been reduced to 95×10 6 m 3 by 1993<br />
because of sedimentation. The mean annual rate of<br />
sedimentation in the reservoir increased from 2.47×10 6 m 3<br />
to 2.76×10 6 m 3 after May, 1993, when the release of the<br />
large landslide dam on the Paute River at La Josefina<br />
mobilized additional sediment (Zevallos and Jerves, 1996).<br />
An expensive dredging program has been used to maintain<br />
storage because of the important hydroelectric power plant<br />
associated with this dam.<br />
Mass movement hazards are increasing globally as<br />
population pressure and economic development push<br />
people onto steeper lands and natural vegetation is removed<br />
for cultivation and other purposes (Vanacker<br />
et al., 2003c). Although landsliding is a natural adjustment<br />
to the crustal shortening occurring in the Andes, not<br />
all of the major <strong>Andean</strong> landslides have been completely<br />
natural events. Two of 11 causal factors listed in an<br />
analysis of the 1993 La Josefina rockslide were excavation<br />
at the toe and diversion of drainage for mining<br />
purposes (Plaza-Nieto, 1996). Higher in the Paute River<br />
basin, locals attribute the 2003 reactivation of a former<br />
landslide (Soroche) to alterations in agricultural drainage<br />
above the failure (Fig. 4).<br />
5. Land use effects on rainfall runoff<br />
One of the most widespread human impacts to the<br />
fluvial system in the Andes, and in other mountain regions,<br />
is increasing the proportion of rainfall that reaches rivers as<br />
surface runoff. Changes in the rates of runoff-generation<br />
occur as unintended consequences of nearly all human<br />
activities. Forest cover, agricultural practices, grazing,<br />
urbanization, and road construction have important and<br />
spatially extensive effects on runoff, which then controls<br />
rates of erosion and sediment movement. These effects are<br />
not unique to the Andes, but are especially interesting in<br />
the Andes because of the intensity of human occupation<br />
C.P. Harden / Geomorphology 79 (2006) 249–263<br />
255<br />
Fig. 4. Soroche landslide in the upper Machángara River tributary of<br />
the Paute River in southern Ecuador.<br />
and the special natural and cultural characteristics of <strong>Andean</strong><br />
highland environments.<br />
Forest clearance is part of the legacy of human occupation<br />
of the <strong>Andean</strong> region. Contemporary deforestation<br />
is occurring primarily in areas, generally on the<br />
external margins of the Andes, where forests remain, or in<br />
dry climates, where tree removal promotes desertification<br />
(Ministerio de Desarrollo Sostenible y Medio Ambiente,<br />
1996). Inter<strong>Andean</strong> valleys appear to have been cleared<br />
even before the Spanish Conquest, although experts disagree<br />
about whether certain areas, which today are<br />
marginally dry or have thin soils, ever supported trees<br />
(Acosta-Solis, 1977; Ellenburg, 1979; White, 1985;<br />
Gade, 1999; Sarmiento and Frolich, 2002). Photos taken<br />
in the late 19th and early 20th centuries in the province of<br />
Tungurahua, Ecuador show far less tree cover than exists<br />
there today (Banco Central, 1984). The introduction of<br />
Eucalyptus trees in the 1860s led to the reforestation of<br />
cleared areas and the present-day dominance of Eucalyptus<br />
throughout the Inter<strong>Andean</strong> region (Dickinson, 1969).<br />
Forest cover continues to be lost, even while reforestation<br />
programs are adding trees. Between 1990 and 2000,<br />
Bolivia lost forest cover at an average rate of 0.3% per<br />
year, Colombia at 0.4%, Ecuador at 1.2%, Peru at 0.4%,<br />
and Venezuela at 0.4% (FAO, 2003b). Much of this
256 C.P. Harden / Geomorphology 79 (2006) 249–263<br />
change occurred on external flanks of the Andes, and<br />
some occurred in lowlands rather than in <strong>Andean</strong> regions.<br />
Studies of land-cover change have documented transitions<br />
from native trees to plantations of exotic species,<br />
principally Eucalyptus and Pinus, without changing the<br />
overall extent of tree cover in the study area. Vanacker<br />
et al. (2003a) detected profound changes in land cover<br />
between 1962 and 1995 in the Machángara watershed in<br />
southern <strong>Andean</strong> Ecuador, which included an overall gain<br />
in total wooded area even though 41% of the secondary<br />
native woodland was cleared during that period. They<br />
attributed the changes to land reform programs and population<br />
growth, and the net gain to reforestation with<br />
Eucalyptus on formerly degraded lands. Gentry and<br />
Lopez-Parodi (1980) linked deforestation in the upper<br />
Amazon watershed in Peru and Ecuador to increased high<br />
water levels in the Amazon River at Iquitos and in<br />
Peruvian tributaries upstream of Iquitos.<br />
The illicit drug trade, specifically of coca in Peru,<br />
Bolivia, and Colombia, has been identified as a contributor<br />
to deforestation in the tropical Andes (U.S. Department of<br />
<strong>State</strong>, 2001). Illicit coca production has typically involved<br />
a slash-and-burn approach in which fields are abandoned<br />
after two to three growing seasons and new fields cleared<br />
to gain fertility and evade authorities. If growers have<br />
moved onto the land from other environments and are<br />
unfamiliar with local conditions, coca cultivation is more<br />
likely to promote runoff and soil loss. The U.S. <strong>State</strong><br />
Department (2001) estimated that a minimum of 2.4 Mha<br />
of forest were cleared for coca production in the <strong>Andean</strong><br />
region over the previous 20 yrs.<br />
Globally, research has demonstrated that forest clearance<br />
leads to less rainfall interception, less infiltration, less<br />
evapotranspiration, and more surface runoff (e.g., Bosch<br />
and Hewlett, 1982). Loss of forest cover, thus, increases<br />
storm hydrograph volumes and shortens lag times to peak<br />
discharges. Although forest removal typically increases<br />
runoff, reforestation does not necessarily reverse the trend<br />
and increase rainfall infiltration (Harden and Mathews,<br />
Fig. 5. Increase of cattle in northern and central <strong>Andean</strong> countries.<br />
2000). Soils are vulnerable to erosion following forest<br />
clearance, so cleared mountain slopes may readily lose soil,<br />
and, thus, the ability to absorb rainwater, between the times<br />
of clearing and reforestation. Many examples of degraded<br />
locations, at which Eucalyptus trees planted for reforestation<br />
out-competed the understory, exist in the region. Such<br />
scenarios result in trunks of trees rising from bare surfaces,<br />
which continue to erode and degrade, and to which little or<br />
no new organic matter is added. Inbar and Llenera (2000)<br />
suggested that the massive reforestation of Eucalyptus in<br />
highland Peru in 1976 was less effective than ancient<br />
terraces in preventing soil erosion. Where efforts have been<br />
made to replace páramo vegetation with pine trees to<br />
increase carbon sequestration, pines have been observed to<br />
reduce water yields and dry the soils (Hofstede, 2001).<br />
Other human activities that have altered rates and<br />
patterns of rainfall infiltration and runoff are those that<br />
cause soil compaction. Among these are the effects of<br />
livestock grazing, increased tractor use in <strong>Andean</strong> agriculture,<br />
growth of road networks, and urbanization. Grazing<br />
and trampling pressures increased greatly after the<br />
Spanish brought cattle, sheep, and horses to the Andes in<br />
the early 1500s. Compared to the native camelids (llamas,<br />
alpacas, vicuñas), hoofed animals of European origin are<br />
heavier and exert more force per foot (White and<br />
Maldonado, 1991; Gade, 1999). When heavy animals,<br />
e.g., cattle, are confined to a limited area, their weight<br />
compacts the underlying soil, and reduces infiltration<br />
capacity (Hofstede et al., 2002). The absence of a freezing<br />
winter season means that trampled soils do not have an<br />
annual period of recuperation, so infiltration capacities<br />
remain low from year to year. Grazing has been locally<br />
intense during the five centuries since Europeans arrived,<br />
and, where conditions have allowed, cattle numbers have<br />
increased in recent years (Fig. 5, FAO, 2006).<br />
Contemporary agriculture can increase or decrease<br />
rates of soil infiltration and rainfall runoff. Although<br />
clearing forested land for cultivation usually has the<br />
effect of increasing runoff, tilling cleared land increases<br />
infiltration capacities (Harden, 1991). The weight of<br />
tractors compacts the soil, so increased tractor use over<br />
the past half-century (Fig. 6, FAO, 2006) can be expected<br />
to have increased rates of runoff in <strong>Andean</strong> farmlands.<br />
The preferential generation of runoff on roads and<br />
footpaths accelerates erosion on hillslopes (Harden,<br />
1992). The location of roads near streams allows<br />
increased runoff to discharge quickly from the land to<br />
the fluvial system. Land reform programs in the 1960s<br />
and 1970s in Ecuador led to more land ownership of<br />
steeper hillsides and higher elevation fields. At the same<br />
time, land became more parcelized (Vanacker et al.,<br />
2003a). Because boundaries between parcels interrupt
Fig. 6. Increase in tractor use since 1955, by country.<br />
overland flow, parcelization can reduce soil and water<br />
loss from agricultural plots. The interrelated factors of<br />
plot steepness and length, tillage practices, and the<br />
distribution of croplands on hillsides make the hydrologic<br />
effects of cultivation difficult to generalize.<br />
Cessation of a land use that exacerbates runoff or<br />
sediment production does not necessarily mean return to<br />
a previous state of infiltration and sediment stability. In<br />
the dry central Andes of Peru, where annual rainfall is<br />
only 350 mm, Inbar and Llenera (2000) found that<br />
abandonment of agricultural terraces increases rates of<br />
soil erosion and sediment yields. More than 2 Mha of<br />
highland Peru are estimated to have been terraced, but<br />
91% of terraces in high areas have been abandoned<br />
(Inbar and Llenera, 2000). Plants do not grow naturally<br />
on the terraced slopes in this dry environment. In more<br />
humid Ecuador, where slopes were not terraced,<br />
previously cultivated sites that had been abandoned or<br />
left in long-term fallow generated significantly more<br />
runoff than sites under cultivation (Harden, 1996). Degraded<br />
soil, lack of moisture, and ongoing grazing<br />
stresses cause abandoned <strong>Andean</strong> farmlands to continue<br />
to be sources of runoff and sediment for many years<br />
(Harden, 2001). An additional factor that has reduced<br />
the ability of the soil to absorb and hold rainwater has<br />
been the wholesale removal of peaty soil. In Bolivian,<br />
turf has been sold as fuel (Godoy, 1990); in the puna of<br />
Peru, peat soil has been mined for fuel and for horticultural<br />
purposes (Llerena, 1987); and, in Ecuador, this<br />
author has observed peat mining for greenhouses that<br />
produce flowers for export.<br />
6. Human impacts on the moisture storage capacity<br />
of páramo soil<br />
Soils play a key role in determining whether rainfall is<br />
absorbed by or shed from a site; they also store and release<br />
water. Human activities that cause soil compaction reduce<br />
the available pore space in the soil and thus reduce the<br />
C.P. Harden / Geomorphology 79 (2006) 249–263<br />
ability of the soil to store water. Soil moisture storage<br />
capacity is also reduced when soil is lost or the organic<br />
matter content of a soil decreases. The páramo soils,<br />
which cover 35,000 km 2 of the northern Andes (Hofstede,<br />
2005), are especially vulnerable to changes that reduce<br />
pore volume. With low bulk density and high organic<br />
matter content, páramo soils are viewed as enormous<br />
sponges, which feed and regulate flow to the fluvial<br />
system (Luteyn, 2005). Water retention capacity of<br />
undisturbed páramo soils is extremely high, reaching<br />
values of more than 100% at the wilting point, and<br />
strongly correlated with the organic matter content<br />
(Buytaert et al., 2005; Luteyn, 2005). Poulenard et al.<br />
(2003) reported water contents in epipedons of páramo<br />
Hydric Melanudands at 1500 kPa≥1000 g kg −1 and<br />
attributed high porosities to the abundance of organic<br />
colloids.<br />
Loss of vegetative cover promotes drying, which<br />
irreversibly reduces pore space and the water-holding<br />
capacity of the páramo soil (Poulenard et al., 2003).<br />
Studies have shown páramo soils to become crusted and<br />
even hydrophobic following disturbance (Poulenard<br />
et al., 2001). Fire is the principal human disturbance<br />
affecting the hydrology of páramo environments. Today,<br />
páramos are primarily burned to remove old grass and<br />
promote the growth of tender new shoots as food for<br />
cattle. Gade (1999) reported that any grassy site in the<br />
high Andes is probably burned at least once each 5 yrs.<br />
Similarly, Hofstede (2005) suggested that only the most<br />
remote or most protected páramo sites are not affected<br />
by livestock. Páramos are also burned to clear land for<br />
cultivation, improve hunting, or implement local belief<br />
systems (e.g., bring rain, deter evil spirits) (Hofstede,<br />
2001). Grass páramos have been used as grazing lands at<br />
least since the arrival of cattle, sheep and horses with the<br />
Spanish in the 1500s, so widespread burning, coupled<br />
with trampling and vegetation removal by grazing,<br />
would have reduced moisture storage and increased<br />
rates of runoff in páramo environments over the last five<br />
centuries. These practices have been so widespread that<br />
the region lacks control sites for comparative studies.<br />
7. Case study of soil moisture<br />
257<br />
To more closely examine the soil moisture conditions<br />
in the headwater region and to investigate differences in<br />
soil moisture between grass- and tree-covered highland<br />
sites, a study was conducted of surface soil moisture<br />
characteristics in and near the 50 km 2 Llaviucu watershed,<br />
in the western cordillera of the Andes near Cuenca,<br />
Ecuador. The Llaviucu watershed is of special interest<br />
because it yields 20–30% of the water used by the city of
258 C.P. Harden / Geomorphology 79 (2006) 249–263<br />
Cuenca and because most of it lies within Cajas National<br />
Park (Fig. 7). Elevations in the watershed range from<br />
3000 to 4300 m. Vegetation is predominantly grass<br />
páramo, with occasional small stands of Polylepis trees at<br />
high elevations (Fig. 8), tropical montane forest vegetation<br />
below 3400 m on the steep flanks of the glacial trough<br />
of the lower watershed, and imported pasture grasses on<br />
the trough floor. The national park is managed by the<br />
Municipality of Cuenca through a corporation with major<br />
leadership by ETAPA (Empresa Pública Municipal de<br />
Telecomunicaciones, Agua Potable y Alcantarillado y<br />
Saneamiento de Cuenca), the local utility company. In<br />
addition to the usual goals of protecting the natural environment<br />
and fostering tourism, recreation, and environmental<br />
education, this park is also managed to maximize<br />
water storage and dry season river flow. Cattle grazing in<br />
the park has successfully been reduced from tens of<br />
thousands to a very small number, and the corporation<br />
must now decide whether to continue to burn the páramo<br />
regularly or allow vegetative succession to occur. Evidence<br />
in the region indicates that trees, which presently<br />
occur in isolated islands up to 4300 m (Gade, 1999), may<br />
become dominant in the absence of burning (White and<br />
Maldonado, 1991), but the water resources effects of such<br />
a change are not known.<br />
Fig. 7. Location of Cajas National Park, Ecuador.<br />
For this study, pairs of soil moisture study plots were<br />
established at elevations between 3163 m and 3527 m to<br />
compare the effects of grass and tree cover where other<br />
factors–elevation, location, slope, parent material, soil<br />
development–were the same. A HydroSense (Campbell<br />
Scientific) Time Domain Reflectometer (TDR) was<br />
deployed in 4 m 2 plots at 23 sites to obtain 5–15 replications<br />
of in situ measurements of volumetric moisture<br />
content (VMC) at each site. The 12-cm TDR probes integrated<br />
VMC along their length. In each plot, a 12-cm<br />
deep soil sample was collected between one set of TDR<br />
probe holes for laboratory determination of gravimetric<br />
moisture content (GMC), and a second sample (0–12 cm<br />
deep), taken within 1 m of the first, was extracted for bulk<br />
density determination. The sand replacement method was<br />
used in the field to determine in situ volume for bulk<br />
density calculations. All soil samples were air-dried and<br />
then oven-dried (24 h at 105–110 °C) and weighed. GMC<br />
samples were weighed before drying, so that GMC could<br />
be calculated as the ratio of the mass of water (mwater=wet<br />
soil mass−oven-dried soil mass) to the mass of oven-dried<br />
soil (GMC=mwater/msoil).<br />
Loss-on-Ignition (LOI), interpreted as an approximate<br />
measure of the organic material (% by mass), was<br />
determined as the percentage of the sample mass
emaining after burning the oven-dried sample at 550 °C<br />
for 2 h. All sampling was done in June and July of 2004, a<br />
relatively moist year.<br />
Volumetric moisture content is the ratio of the volume<br />
of water to the volume of soil. As volume is the ratio of<br />
mass to density, VMC may also be expressed as<br />
VMC ¼ðmwater=q waterÞ=ðmsoil=q soilÞ: ð1Þ<br />
Using soil bulk density as ρsoil, and setting the density<br />
of water (ρwater) at1gml − 1 , the three values for VMC,<br />
GMC and bulk density at each site can be related as<br />
GMC ¼ðVMC⁎1 gml 1 Þ=ð bulk densityÞ: ð2Þ<br />
The resulting data show extremely low bulk densities<br />
(median 0.26 g cm − 3 ), high organic matter contents of<br />
surface horizons (median 43%), and high water-holding<br />
capacities (median GMC 1.52 g g − 1 ; VMC ranges from<br />
12% to 86%). In other words, the mass of water in these<br />
soils is typically 1.5 times the dry mass of solid soil<br />
material. Measurements from paired plots showed that<br />
soils under grass cover consistently had higher VMC<br />
than soils under trees (Table 7), and field observations<br />
showed that soils under trees contained more macropores<br />
compared to soils under grass cover. In all pairs,<br />
soil under tree cover was less dense and drier than soil<br />
under grass. A comparison of soil properties at four<br />
páramo soils sites, three that had burned recently and<br />
one that had not, showed little or no difference in bulk<br />
density or VMC between the four (Table 8).<br />
C.P. Harden / Geomorphology 79 (2006) 249–263<br />
Fig. 8. Páramo grassland in Cajas National Park, Ecuador.<br />
259<br />
Although bulk densities in the Llaviucu watershed<br />
study were very low, generally good agreement (same<br />
order of magnitude, most within 50%) between measured<br />
and calculated values of soil moisture and field<br />
observation provided confidence in the results. This<br />
comparison between grass- and tree-covered soils was<br />
limited by the small size of the database and by the<br />
difficulty of finding sites at which all other factors were<br />
equal, as trees were observed to typically occupy steeper<br />
and rockier sites. These initial results suggest that treecovered<br />
sites store less moisture than grass-covered sites<br />
and raise the question of whether páramo soils only<br />
behave as “sponges” under grass cover, which may, in<br />
turn, be an artifact of anthropogenic fire management.<br />
Lightning-caused fires have not been reported in<br />
páramos, although lightning strikes have occasionally<br />
been observed (Luteyn, 2005).<br />
The lack of difference in soil moisture and soil bulk<br />
density between recently burned páramo sites and an<br />
unburned, but similarly grassy site was not unexpected,<br />
as the longer-term history of all grass páramo sites<br />
appears to include relatively frequent fires. Results from<br />
this study suggest that, not the fire, but the establishment<br />
of woody plants in the absence of fire would increase<br />
evapotranspiration rates and soil drainage (through<br />
macropore formation), causing páramo soil to lose its<br />
capacity as sponge. A small sample can only be illustrative,<br />
however.<br />
A further confounding factor in the moisture storage<br />
capacity of páramo soils is the depth of soil at a given<br />
location. Soil in much of the Llaviucu watershed is thin
260 C.P. Harden / Geomorphology 79 (2006) 249–263<br />
Table 7<br />
Data from paired plots in Llaviucu watershed, Ecuador<br />
Vegetation Altitude<br />
(m)<br />
Moisture GMC<br />
− 1<br />
0–12 cm g g<br />
Bulk density 0–<br />
− 1<br />
12 cm g cc<br />
Moisture VMC<br />
average 0–12 cm<br />
%<br />
(20–30 cm deep), compared to soils at other high<br />
elevation páramo sites less affected by glaciers.<br />
Although it is presently below the lower limit of<br />
permanent ice, the upper Llaviucu watershed was<br />
under part of a larger ice cap (Rodbell et al., 2002),<br />
and the lower Llaviucu watershed is the trough-shaped<br />
valley of an outlet glacier. Field observations made in the<br />
Llaviucu catchment documented the flashiness of runoff<br />
on thin, quickly saturated soils in this glacially scoured<br />
valley. The flashiness of runoff in the watershed and<br />
relative dryness of its wooded soils, even in a wet time,<br />
can be readily explained, but are contrary to conventional<br />
expectations. This underscores the importance of<br />
localized differences and the need for more such case<br />
studies, which should help management make informed<br />
decisions for this national park in its effort to sustain and<br />
VMC range of<br />
obs values %<br />
VMC ratio<br />
grass:<br />
wooded<br />
improve downstream water resources as well as better<br />
understand the páramo in other areas.<br />
8. Summary and conclusions<br />
− 1<br />
GMC g g<br />
calculated as<br />
VMC/BD<br />
PAIR 1 2.8<br />
Grass 1 3170 1.52 0.20 68 48–76 3.4 0.4<br />
Grass 2 3170 1.80 0.34 65 53–79 1.9 0.9<br />
Wood 1 3175 1.06 0.04 20 8–34 5.0 0.2<br />
Wood 2 3175 nd nd 27 13–34<br />
PAIR 2 2.8<br />
Grass 3 3248 0.49 0.54 35 18–57 0.6 0.8<br />
Grass 4 3248 0.70 0.48 0.7 1.0<br />
Wood 3 3260 0.73 0.09 12 8–24 1.3 0.5<br />
Wood 4 3260 0.89 0.11 1.1 0.8<br />
PAIR 3 4.0<br />
Grass 5 3170 1.45 0.32 71 64–76 2.2 0.7<br />
Wood 5 3176 1.31 0.06 20 6–28 3.3 0.4<br />
Wood 6 3176 2.50 0.05 15 10–27 3.0 0.8<br />
PAIR 4 1.3<br />
Grass 6 3163 1.45 1.08 60 53–65 0.6 2.6<br />
Wood 7 3273 1.10 1.06 47 38–58 0.4 2.5<br />
Table 8<br />
Bulk density, Loss-On-Ignition (LOI), volumetric soil moisture<br />
(VMC) and gravimetric soil moisture (GMC) of páramo soils at four<br />
sites in Cajas National Park, southern Ecuador<br />
Vegetation Elev.<br />
m<br />
Bulk<br />
Density g<br />
− 1<br />
cc<br />
LOI<br />
%<br />
VMC<br />
avg.<br />
%<br />
VMC<br />
min.<br />
%<br />
VMC<br />
max.<br />
%<br />
GMC<br />
− 1<br />
gg<br />
Páramo 3465 0.47 29.3 74 72 76 153<br />
burned 1 32.5<br />
Páramo 3467 0.37 42.2 80 78 82 211<br />
burned 2 48.5<br />
Páramo 3469 0.28 54.5 84 83 85 238<br />
burned 3 58.5<br />
Páramo 3527 0.27 57.6 86 84 88 252<br />
unburned<br />
GMC ratio<br />
of obs/calc<br />
Ways in which <strong>Andean</strong> people and their activities<br />
affect the flow and sediment loads of mountain rivers<br />
are essentially the same as on other continents. The<br />
tropical location of the northern Andes, belief systems<br />
that motivate certain land-management strategies, and<br />
the dominance of grass páramo distinguish the Andes<br />
from other steep, volcanically active mountain regions<br />
of the world. Beyond deliberately engineered changes<br />
of river impoundments and water withdrawls, human<br />
activities have many more subtle and unintentional<br />
geomorphic effects on the fluvial system. Forest<br />
clearance, grazing, agriculture, roadways, and urbanization<br />
increase the proportion of rainfall that flows to<br />
the channel network during storms, and steep slopes<br />
give overland flow the energy to erode and move fine<br />
sediments. Human interventions that destabilize slopes,<br />
from mining, to tree removal, to problems with<br />
irrigation canals, contribute to triggering mass movements,<br />
the largest of which dam rivers and subsequently<br />
serve as fluvial sediment sources. Páramo soils, which<br />
are hydrologically important in the northern Andes, are<br />
particularly sensitive to drying, which occurs when<br />
vegetation is removed by burning, grazing, or tilling.<br />
The Llaviucu case study verified the low bulk density<br />
and high moisture-holding capacities of páramo and<br />
highland soils and showed that soils under grass cover
hold more moisture in a moist season than soils under<br />
trees.<br />
At the regional scale, natural processes of uplift and<br />
denudation, volcanic activity, steep slopes, and mass<br />
movement create a geomorphically active environment<br />
in the northern and central Andes. Where human settlement<br />
is sparse and relief is high, such as on the external<br />
flanks of the Andes, the impacts of human activities are<br />
negligible compared to the magnitudes of natural processes<br />
and adjustments in the fluvial system. A recent<br />
study in the Upper Beni River basin in the Bolivian<br />
Andes found no significant change in rates of erosion,<br />
determined from 10 Be analysis of quartz grains, over the<br />
last millions of years (Safran et al., 2005). Likewise, a<br />
broader study of rates of erosion from 47 rapidly eroding<br />
drainage basins in the Bolivian Andes concluded that<br />
anthropogenic disturbance was minimal (Aalto et al.,<br />
2006). Given the great distance and the number of<br />
sediment sinks in the Amazon basin between the Andes<br />
and the Atlantic Ocean, it is unlikely that human impacts<br />
in the <strong>Andean</strong> headwaters are noticed at the mouth of the<br />
Amazon.<br />
On the scale of 10 3 km 2 in human-dominated landscapes<br />
of the Inter<strong>Andean</strong> valleys and on a temporal scale<br />
of years to centuries, unintended human impacts on soil<br />
erosion and runoff are evident, if not well documented.<br />
These are visible as truncated soils, reservoir sedimentation,<br />
stream incision, increased duration of stream turbidity,<br />
and accelerated rates of mass movement where<br />
people have steepened slopes through construction and<br />
mining. At the scale of plots (10 m 2 ) definite differences in<br />
soil properties are associated with differences in land cover<br />
and land use.<br />
Many <strong>Andean</strong> river valleys are narrow and steep, so<br />
changes in slope stability or changes that cause soil to<br />
erode or rainfall to run off are rapidly transmitted to the<br />
river system. The land uses today follow a legacy, begun<br />
long before the Colonial era, of forest clearance, agriculture,<br />
and urbanization in the <strong>Andean</strong> region. Land uses<br />
have changed as populations have increased, local and<br />
global economies and technologies have changed, and<br />
land reforms have been implemented. Human impacts in<br />
these mountains may now be more intensive and<br />
extensive, but they are not new.<br />
Acknowledgements<br />
The author completed the case study in Cajas<br />
National Park with the support from the Fulbright<br />
Commission, U.S. Department of <strong>State</strong>, with collaboration<br />
of faculty and students from the University of<br />
Cuenca, Ecuador, and with permission from Cajas<br />
C.P. Harden / Geomorphology 79 (2006) 249–263<br />
National Park, ETAPA, and the Municipalidad de<br />
Cuenca. Additional thanks go to Alan Moore and<br />
Marisa Ernst for assistance in the field and to Will<br />
Fontanez and David Moore for help with databases and<br />
graphics.<br />
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Developing sustainable tourism through<br />
adaptive resource management: a case<br />
study of Machu Picchu, Peru<br />
Lincoln R. Larson a & Neelam C. Poudyal a<br />
a Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of<br />
Georgia, 180 E. Green Street, Athens, GA, USA<br />
Version of record first published: 19 Mar 2012<br />
To cite this article: Lincoln R. Larson & Neelam C. Poudyal (2012): Developing sustainable tourism<br />
through adaptive resource management: a case study of Machu Picchu, Peru, Journal of Sustainable<br />
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Journal of Sustainable Tourism<br />
Vol. 20, No. 7, September 2012, 917–938<br />
Developing sustainable tourism through adaptive resource<br />
management: a case study of Machu Picchu, Peru<br />
Lincoln R. Larson ∗ and Neelam C. Poudyal<br />
Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, 180 E. Green Street,<br />
Athens, GA, USA<br />
(Received 5 August 2011; final version received 6 February 2012)<br />
Machu Picchu, Peru, is recognized as a top international travel destination. Pressure<br />
from the approximately 900,000 tourists who annually visit the ancient Inca city threatens<br />
the ecological integrity, physical substance and cultural authenticity of the World<br />
Heritage Site and surrounding area, including the Inca Trail. Multiple organizations and<br />
agencies currently involved in the management of Machu Picchu have distinct agendas<br />
for the conservation and development of the city, and conflicts regarding public access,<br />
economic growth and cultural preservation are rampant. Attempts to establish carrying<br />
capacities have failed, with proposed daily visitor levels ranging from 800 to 4000. This<br />
paper explores the complex issues surrounding tourism at Machu Picchu and presents a<br />
potential solution: an adaptive management approach based on the UN World Tourism<br />
Organization’s (UNWTO) sustainable tourism framework. This integrative strategy accounts<br />
for multiple perspectives and synthesizes disparate goals embraced by diverse<br />
stakeholders, including the Peruvian government, international conservation organizations,<br />
foreign tourists, private tour operators, regional authorities and indigenous<br />
communities. The focus on Machu Picchu as an adaptive management case study site<br />
outlines key steps leading to implementation, offering planning and policy implications<br />
for sustainability initiatives at numerous developing-world tourism destinations facing<br />
similar political and socio-economic challenges.<br />
Keywords: adaptive management; community development; indicators; Machu Picchu;<br />
sustainability; world heritage site<br />
Introduction<br />
Few places in the world can match the natural beauty and historical significance of Machu<br />
Picchu, Peru. The ecological and cultural allure of the ancient Inca city has earned Machu<br />
Picchu a place on the United Nations Educational, Scientific & Cultural Organization’s<br />
(UNESCO) World Heritage List (UNEP, 2008). Machu Picchu is also formally recognized<br />
as one of the “New Wonders of the World” (World of New7Wonders, 2011), and the image<br />
of Peru’s “Lost City” remains a powerful symbol of Peruvian culture and heritage. With its<br />
dramatic setting and mysterious past, the former Inca citadel has become a popular tourism<br />
destination and the centerpiece of a booming tourism industry (Desforges, 2000).<br />
About 2500 tourists visit Machu Picchu each day, and the remote site is under increasing<br />
pressure from developers and government officials, who want to expand tourism operations<br />
in the area (Leffel, 2005). Threats posed by unregulated use, inadequate planning, deficient<br />
∗ Corresponding author. Email: llarson@uga.edu.<br />
ISSN 0966-9582 print / ISSN 1747-7646 online<br />
C○ 2012 Taylor & Francis<br />
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2012.667217<br />
http://www.tandfonline.com
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918 L.R. Larson and N.C. Poudyal<br />
monitoring mechanisms and weak policy enforcement have caused Machu Picchu to be<br />
ranked as one of the most rapidly deteriorating World Heritage Sites (Hawkins, Chang, &<br />
Warnes, 2009). Because of these concerns, UNESCO has urged the government of Peru<br />
to revise its Master Plan for managing the Historic Sanctuary to emphasize sustainable<br />
development and prevent Machu Picchu’s possible inscription on the list of World Heritage<br />
Sites in danger (UNESCO, 2009). The state is currently working with UNESCO to construct<br />
a new Master Plan (Vecchio, 2011), but – with many diverse stakeholders and interests to<br />
balance – reaching consensus regarding Machu Picchu’s future has proven to be extremely<br />
difficult.<br />
Machu Picchu’s governing body consists of multiple organizations and agencies – from<br />
local to international – that have very different interests, ranging from preservation to<br />
utilization. Advocates of the mass tourism strategy want to increase access to the site,<br />
generate revenue for regional governments, private operators and local communities, and<br />
promote Inca culture as a marketable commodity. Opponents of mass tourism want to limit<br />
access, preserve ecological, archeological and spiritual assets, and protect existing cultures<br />
and livelihoods in Peru’s <strong>Andean</strong> highlands. David Ugarte, a former regional director of<br />
Cusco’s National Cultural Institute, summed up the core issue: “The (tour) companies are<br />
thinking of profit. Our task is to give to the next generation the opportunity to continue<br />
seeing this wonder for centuries to come ... In ten years’ time there will no longer be a<br />
Machu Picchu. It’s not only part of our heritage. It’s a part of humanity’s” (Collyns, 2007).<br />
Although research suggests that resource protection and development are not mutually<br />
exclusive in the tourism sector (Weaver, 2011), the successful integration of these principles<br />
will likely require a shift from reactive to proactive management paradigms (Allen,<br />
Fontaine, Pope, & Garmenstani, 2011). In this respect, Machu Picchu presents a compelling<br />
opportunity for case study. Tourism management at the site is a classic example of what<br />
McCool and Moisey (2008) call a “messy situation” – a context where goals conflict,<br />
uncertainty abounds and relationships between stakeholders can be polarizing or hostile.<br />
However, if a sustainable solution were to emerge under these challenging circumstances,<br />
it could be used to resolve tourism problems in similar settings around the world. This<br />
paper explores the general concept of sustainable tourism, analyzes the complex issues surrounding<br />
tourism in Machu Picchu and presents a proactive, systematic, objective-driven,<br />
indicator-based adaptive management framework that may facilitate a progression from the<br />
sustainable rhetoric prevalent in management plans to sustainable solutions and action (Zan<br />
& Lusiani, 2011).<br />
What is sustainable tourism?<br />
The issue of sustainable development is at the core of the debate over Machu Picchu’s<br />
use. To ecologists, sustainable development is concerned with preserving the status and<br />
function of ecosystems (Rees, 1990). From the economic standpoint espoused by the World<br />
Commission on Environment and Development, sustainable development is “development<br />
that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations<br />
to meet their own needs” (Toman, 1992, p. 3). Within tourism, sustainable development<br />
typically refers to tourism that satisfies the needs of present tourists and host regions while<br />
protecting and enhancing opportunities for the future (Vaughan, 2000).<br />
Multiple meanings have been attached to the term “sustainable” in the tourism context<br />
(Bramwell & Lane, 1993). McCool and Moisey (2008) suggest that sustainable tourism can<br />
refer to a business that perseveres and flourishes over a long period of time or an industry that<br />
acknowledges biophysical and social limits and intentionally remains small in scope. Hunter
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Journal of Sustainable Tourism 919<br />
(1995) observes that, in its purest form, sustainable tourism is a vital tool that augments<br />
large-scale economic and social development programs. Butler succinctly summarizes the<br />
adaptive paradigm by stating, “sustainable tourism is that which is developed and maintained<br />
in an area in such manner and at such a scale that ...it remains viable over an infinite period<br />
of time and does not degrade or alter the environment (human and physical) in which it<br />
exists” (1999, p. 12). An effective sustainable tourism approach should maximize benefits<br />
and minimize impacts, thereby increasing the likelihood of long-term persistence. Saarinen<br />
(2006) argues that sustainability in tourism accounts for resource-based (e.g. impacts on<br />
natural and cultural capital), activity-based (e.g. growth and development of industry) and<br />
community-based (e.g. involvement of social capital in a local context) traditions. Each<br />
of these perspectives is relevant at Machu Picchu, where tourism threatens the ecological<br />
integrity and cultural authenticity of a cherished resource while bringing the promise of<br />
economic enhancement and community development. To understand how the sustainable<br />
tourism model may function in this context, the specific situational factors and challenges<br />
that make Machu Picchu unique must be considered.<br />
Machu Picchu: an overview<br />
The ancient citadel of Machu Picchu was built as a royal estate for the Inca ruler Pachacuti<br />
between 1460 and 1470 AD. The citadel remained hidden for centuries until 1911, when<br />
American explorer Hiram Bingham became the first non-native Peruvian to discover the<br />
ruins of the mythical “Lost City”. Bingham immediately understood the magnitude of his<br />
find, noting that “Machu Picchu might prove to be the largest and most important ruin<br />
discovered in South America since the days of the Spanish conquest” (Bingham, 1913).<br />
Bingham’s discovery brought international attention to the ancient city and the awe-inspiring<br />
landscape around it. In 1983, UNESCO officially recognized the cultural and natural value<br />
of the area by designating it a World Heritage Site and making the preservation of Machu<br />
Picchu a global priority (ICOMOS, 1983).<br />
To further protect its national treasure, the Peruvian government created a National Historic<br />
Sanctuary in 1981. Today, Machu Picchu continues to provide evidence and artifacts<br />
that help archeologists reconstruct elements of Inca civilization (Gordon & Knopf, 2007).<br />
The spirit of Machu Picchu has also pervaded the public imagination, fueling a nationalist<br />
movement among Peru’s indigenous people (Flores Ochoa, 2004; van den Berghe & Flores<br />
Ochoa, 2000). Throughout Peru’s turbulent past, Machu Picchu has also remained a pillar<br />
of stability and an emblem of cultural fortitude. Overall, this enduring heritage highlights<br />
a powerful cultural landscape that warrants protection (Alberts & Hazen, 2010).<br />
The Machu Picchu ecosystem contains a variety of habitats and incredible biodiversity.<br />
Its elevation ranges from 1850 to 4600 m and includes dry subtropical forest along the<br />
river valleys, humid montane cloud forests on the steep mountain slopes and high-elevation<br />
paramo grassland (Galiano Sanchez, 2000; UNEP, 2008). Machu Picchu provides refuge<br />
for many wildlife species, including the <strong>Andean</strong> cock-of-the-rock, the ocelot and the endangered<br />
spectacled bear (Young & Leon, 2000), and the discovery of new species in the Machu<br />
Picchu area is not uncommon. These unique ecological features convinced the International<br />
Council on Monuments and Sites (ICOMOS) that Machu Picchu should be expanded into<br />
a biological protected zone for the surrounding areas. Machu Picchu is now recognized as a<br />
“managed resource protection area” by the World Conservation Union (International Union<br />
for Conservation of Nature, IUCN), set aside for the sustainable use of natural ecosystems<br />
and the associated cultural resources (IUCN, 1994). The protected zone currently covers<br />
80,535 acres and reaches far beyond the ruins (Flores Ochoa, 2004).
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920 L.R. Larson and N.C. Poudyal<br />
Tourism at Machu Picchu<br />
Conservation designations by international organizations underscored Machu Picchu’s universal<br />
appeal, and the tourism industry was quick to respond (Vaughan, 2000). Before<br />
1990, Peru accounted for less than 5% of all tourism in South America (Aguilar, Hinojosa,<br />
Milla, & Nordt, 1992). In the 1990s, with the introduction of improved infrastructure and<br />
reduction in violence and unrest in Peru, its exceptional natural and cultural features became<br />
more appealing to tourists (Casado, 1998; Desforges, 2000). A publicity campaign<br />
with the slogan “El turista es su amigo” (The tourist is your friend) was used to encourage<br />
positive public attitudes toward tourists and promote tourism as the panacea for Peru’s<br />
stagnant economy (Desforges, 2000). These political changes, economic reforms and aggressive<br />
marketing strategies created an international tourist boom in the mid-1990s that<br />
continues today. From 2000 to 2010, international tourist arrivals and expenditures in Peru<br />
doubled (World Economic Forum, 2011) and tourism became the fastest-growing sector of<br />
the Peruvian economy (Mitchell & Eagles, 2001).<br />
Based on the per capita number of tourist bed nights, the Cusco region assumes a dominant<br />
position in Peru’s international tourism hierarchy (O’Hare & Barrett, 1999); Cusco<br />
is the nearest major city to Machu Picchu, with airline and rail connections (Mendoza<br />
Quintana, 1997). In fact, over 90% of all international visits to Peru feature a stop in the<br />
Cusco Department, and nearly half of these trips include a visit to Machu Picchu (Desforges,<br />
2000; Solano, 2005). Cusco hotels and hostels receive an average of 1.5 domestic tourists<br />
to every foreign traveler, much less than the 7:1 domestic to international ratio observed<br />
across Peru (O’Hare & Barrett, 1999). The spatially uneven nature of tourist promotion<br />
in Peru explains a large portion of this discrepancy. Government departments that oversee<br />
the tourism industry are hesitant to endorse travel to outlying areas, preferring instead to<br />
concentrate investments in established hotspots. Although there are 36,000 known archeological<br />
sites in the Cusco region, the potential for tourism in most of these underdeveloped<br />
locations has not been explored (Del-Arroyo, 2005; McGrath, 2004).<br />
Machu Picchu, however, is threatened by its extreme global visibility and a growing<br />
influx of visitors that threatens the limits of sustainability. Between 400 and 3000 people<br />
visit the ancient Inca city every day, and visitor numbers are increasing 6–10% every year<br />
(Emmott, 2003; Leffel, 2005; UNEP, 2008). The record annual high of almost 900,000<br />
visitors was recorded in 2008 and – despite a slight downturn in 2009 and 2010, primarily<br />
due to site closures related to flooding and mudslides (<strong>Andean</strong> Tour Operator, personal<br />
communication, March 21, 2011) – that number is likely to increase (Vecchio, 2011).<br />
Although projections indicate that international tourist numbers across Peru may begin<br />
to stabilize in the near future (Divino & McAleer, 2010), the intensifying pressure on<br />
Machu Picchu itself will not subside (UNEP, 2008). The UNESCO Chief Irina Boklova<br />
acknowledged this alarming pattern in early 2011, remarking that “Machu Picchu is a victim<br />
of its own success” (Vecchio, 2011). If Peru is going to protect one of its most valuable<br />
resources, then management plans must address multiple challenges.<br />
Management challenges at Machu Picchu<br />
Tourism management within and around Machu Picchu is affected by a variety of environmental,<br />
economic and social factors often associated with World Heritage Sites in<br />
developing countries (Regalado-Pezua & Arias-Valencia, 2006; UNEP, 2008). Mitigating<br />
these factors can be a daunting task, but a successful management framework may be able<br />
to address each of the following concerns.
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Journal of Sustainable Tourism 921<br />
Ecosystem fragility<br />
The Machu Picchu ecosystem is extremely fragile. Nearly 90% of South America’s <strong>Andean</strong><br />
cloud forests have already been lost, and anthropogenic changes have already damaged<br />
cloud forests on mountain slopes within the Historic Sanctuary (Hamilton, 1995). Scientists<br />
with Peru’s Institute of Natural Resources (INRENA) believe that noise pollution<br />
from helicopters and other vehicular traffic led to the disappearance of <strong>Andean</strong> condors<br />
in the region (Collyns, 2006). Current expansion of civilization and tourism infrastructure<br />
also threatens the migration corridors and montane habitats of several endangered<br />
species on the World Conservation Union’s Red List (IUCN, 2011; Peyton, 1980). The<br />
ecological viability and resiliency of Machu Picchu is a global concern. With tourist activity<br />
rising, managers need to act swiftly and decisively to protect the area’s biological<br />
diversity.<br />
The unique topography and geological instability of Machu Picchu add another element<br />
to the management equation. Landslides are common along the valley’s steep slopes and<br />
additional construction of visitor facilities atop Machu Picchu could precipitate a disaster<br />
(Hadfield, 2001; Sassa, Fukuoka, Wang, & Wang, 2005). Scientists report that the eastern<br />
portion of the ancient city is sliding downhill at a rate of 0.4 inches per month, and this<br />
movement could be the precursor stage of a rockslide (Sassa et al., 2005). Prominent<br />
Peruvian archeologist Federico Kauffman believes that in Inca times, no more than 500<br />
small, barefooted people occupied Machu Picchu (LaFranchi, 2001), but modern tourists<br />
– whose behavior is generally much more destructive – often exceed 2000 on a single day.<br />
The UNESCO-supported proposed management plan incorporates a satellite monitoring<br />
system that will track earth movements and visitor activity patterns around the historic<br />
ruins, and UNESCO has also urged managers to develop a thorough risk preparedness plan<br />
for the site (UNESCO, 2006). As tourist numbers increase, managers must devise consistent<br />
and reliable strategies for preventing major site degradation.<br />
Site accessibility<br />
Although tourism in Machu Picchu is increasing, growth in the region has been hindered by<br />
the ruins’ remote location. With relatively limited access, Machu Picchu is a prime example<br />
of how inadequate transportation systems have constrained spatial expansion of the tourist<br />
industry in Peru (O’Hare & Barrett, 1999; World Economic Forum, 2011). About 150 km<br />
of rugged <strong>Andean</strong> highlands separate the Inca citadel from the urban center of Cusco, but<br />
a visit to Machu Picchu is much more than a casual day trip. Most tourists arrive via a<br />
four-hour train ride that carries passengers from Cusco to the town of Aguas Calientes at<br />
the foot of Machu Picchu. From there, buses transport visitors on a 20-minute ride along a<br />
dirt road up to the ruins 350 m above the Urubamba River. The ancient city itself sits on<br />
the saddle (elevation 2430 m), surrounded by the jagged peak of Huayna Picchu (2667 m)<br />
and Machu Picchu <strong>Mountain</strong> (2795 m).<br />
Efforts have been made to increase the accessibility of Peru’s premier tourist destination.<br />
The Peruvian company Inkaterra was recently cleared to open a helicopter service from<br />
Cusco to Aguas Calientes, but the Peruvian Ministry of Transport and Communications<br />
(MTC) reversed the decision after complaints from archeologists and environmentalists<br />
(Collyns, 2006; Higgins, 2006). Another government plan to increase tourism capacity<br />
– a cable car system that would transport visitors from Aguas Calientes to a proposed<br />
tourist village atop the ridge – was indefinitely suspended following public animosity<br />
regarding potential destruction of primary forests and important archeological remains<br />
(Burger & Salazar, 2004). The newly constructed Carilluchayoc Bridge, inaugurated despite
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922 L.R. Larson and N.C. Poudyal<br />
a prohibitory court order, opened a road corridor between Cusco and the small town of<br />
Santa Teresa. This bridge provides alternative road access to Machu Picchu for visitors who<br />
wish to bypass the expensive tourist train (however, road travelers must still be willing to<br />
endure several treacherous days of travel on perilous unpaved roads).<br />
Limited vehicular access encourages travelers and tourist companies to explore alternative<br />
access to the ancient Inca city. A popular option is the Inca Trail, a stone path built by the<br />
Incas to connect important sites throughout their Sacred Urubamba Valley. Tourists hike the<br />
trail from near Cusco, spending 3–4 days traversing scenic and historic mountainous terrain<br />
before descending to Machu Picchu. They experience the physical demands and the spiritual<br />
nature of the Inca’s ancient lifestyle in an authentic, ecologically friendly way (Arellano,<br />
2004). However, many of these “eco-travelers” are contributing to degradation of a historic<br />
path not built to accommodate such frequent use. In 1984, 6000 tourists hiked the Inca Trail;<br />
by 1998, 66,000 hiked the trail, with over 1500 travelers on the Trail any given day (Roach,<br />
2002). Because of severe damage, and based on UNESCO’s recommendations, a daily limit<br />
of 500 travelers (200 tourists, 300 porters) was implemented in 2001. The entry fee for a full<br />
trail hike was also raised from US $17 to $50. Today, only licensed tour operators are allowed<br />
to sell Inca Trail packages (Barcelona Field Studies Centre, 2007). Stringent regulations<br />
have created a three- to six-month waiting list for tourists hoping to hike the Trail, and many<br />
hikers are now seeking cheaper alternative routes (Healy, 2006). To reduce pressure on the<br />
ruins, UNESCO has discouraged the development of new access routes to Machu Picchu<br />
(Flores Ochoa, 2004). Increased access, however, could boost tourist numbers and increase<br />
foreign expenditure in the region. Hence, the debate over access to Machu Picchu continues.<br />
Local development<br />
The promise of huge profits from increased tourist activity around Machu Picchu could<br />
outweigh the problems of increased access and the related costs of potential site degradation<br />
for many local communities. The Peruvian government formally recognizes the value of<br />
tourism in employment creation and endorses the industry as an important development<br />
strategy (Brohman, 1996; Desforges, 2000). The Sierra Highlands of Peru contain half of<br />
the country’s people but produce just 12.5% of its GNP (O’Hare & Barrett, 1999). Many<br />
small Amerindian villages are scattered throughout <strong>Andean</strong> Peru, and very few of these<br />
communities derive any direct benefits from the tourist boom occurring in the Cusco area.<br />
Aguas Calientes (also known as Machu Picchu Pueblo), the small town at the base of the<br />
ruins, is an exception. The population of Aguas Calientes has grown from 400 to almost<br />
4000 in less than a decade, the fastest rate of population growth in Peru (Emmott, 2003;<br />
UNEP, 2008). This rapid growth is directly related to the international appeal of Machu<br />
Picchu, and Aguas Calientes is earning a reputation as a tourist trap for visitors to the ancient<br />
ruins (Leffel, 2005). Unplanned commercial growth and an overflow of transient settlers<br />
have created other unanticipated problems for the town and its inhabitants. For example,<br />
a lack of adequate water treatment facilities forced the town to pump untreated human<br />
waste into local rivers, polluting the local ecosystem. Seasonal fluctuations in employment,<br />
restricted livelihood choices and a lack of collective identity have also been cited as factors<br />
contributing to social inequities (McGowan, 2010; UNEP, 2008).<br />
The unequal distribution of Machu Picchu tourism profits has done little to help the<br />
plight of most Aguas Calientes residents (<strong>Andean</strong> Tour Operator, personal communication,<br />
March 21, 2011). PeruRail, owned by the British company Orient Express Hotels, has held<br />
a monopoly on transportation in the Sacred Valley for nearly a decade. The company also<br />
owns the only hotel adjacent to the ruins, the Machu Picchu Sanctuary Lodge. Locals argue
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Journal of Sustainable Tourism 923<br />
that the foreign company, which carries 92% of the tourists from Cuzco to Machu Picchu,<br />
takes all the money out of the region (Collyns, 2007). Studies of other tourism destinations<br />
in the Peruvian Andes highlight the devastating effect of leakages; in many cases, over 90%<br />
of gross tourism revenues never reach the local community (Bury, 2008; Mitchell & Eagles,<br />
2001). Although tour operators often promote tourism as a sustainable activity, improving<br />
the welfare of local people, in reality, this is rarely a primary goal (Blamey, 1997). To<br />
combat this, UNESCO has advised management bodies to give 10% of ticket receipts from<br />
Machu Picchu to the town of Aguas Calientes (Barcelona Field Studies Centre, 2007).<br />
This new source of money could help transform local infrastructure, but research shows<br />
that high levels of social integration, communication and trust-building between actors in<br />
the tourism industry are necessary to guarantee enduring socio-economic benefits to host<br />
communities (Cole, 2006). For example, tourism’s social ties to the host community are<br />
increased when the industry creates employment opportunities for local residents to serve<br />
as educators or interpretive guides (Jensen, 2010; McGrath, 2004). Increased ownership<br />
and control has been a vital component of sustainable tourism projects in rural <strong>Andean</strong><br />
settings (Mitchell, 2008; Mitchell & Eagles, 2001); comparable approaches could produce<br />
positive results in tourist-busy villages throughout the Machu Picchu area.<br />
Persistence of Peruvian culture<br />
Even if an equitable distribution of tourism revenue in struggling communities can be<br />
achieved, local cultures may still suffer. Many of Peru’s indigenous people, the descendants<br />
of Machu Picchu’s Inca builders, resent the government’s push for more tourist facilities and<br />
greater access to the Cusco region (van den Berghe & Flores Ochoa, 2000). The <strong>Andean</strong><br />
people, proud of their cultural heritage, are concerned that international tourism threatens<br />
the sanctity of their sacred sites. A Peruvian movement known as incanismo has responded<br />
to these concerns, sparking new controversy over Machu Picchu’s use. Incanismo extols<br />
the virtues of Inca civilization and vilifies Europeans as the scourge of the Americas (van<br />
den Berghe & Flores Ochoa, 2000). On a local level, incansimo principles advocate the<br />
preservation of historical treasures, such as Machu Picchu, for traditional purposes. For<br />
example, the residents of Aguas Calientes, hoping to regain ownership of Machu Picchu and<br />
repossess treasures hailed as part of their “cultural identity”, recently asked Yale University<br />
to return Inca artifacts taken by explorer Hiram Bingham almost a century ago (Cornwell,<br />
2006). Yale began returning the artifacts in 2011, and they will eventually be displayed at<br />
a museum in Cusco (Regalado, 2011).<br />
On a larger scale, the exploitation of incanismo ideology contributes to a novel form<br />
of cultural degradation – ethnic tourism. Modern tourism packages in the Cusco region are<br />
all linked in some way to the Inca theme, and foreigners embracing the heritage tourism<br />
experience are eager to accept embellishments of Inca culture propagated by their guides<br />
(McGrath, 2004; van den Berghe & Flores Ochoa, 2000). Tour operators, particularly<br />
members of the Cusco urban elite, have therefore been able to capitalize on incanismo as<br />
a marketable tourist commodity. The phenomenon of “staged authenticity”, where native<br />
people adopt a contrived culture to appeal to tourist interests, is slowly pervading the<br />
Peruvian highlands (MacCannell, 1973). The subsequent re-invention of tradition and<br />
cultural change precipitated by the tourism-mediated commercialization of Inca culture has<br />
transformed many aspects of life in the Machu Picchu area (Cohen, 1988).<br />
Rising entrance fees at Machu Picchu represent another obstacle threatening to diminish<br />
the site’s importance to local residents. Entrance fees have been raised several times in the<br />
past 10 years, from US $10 to $45 for international tourists and approximately half that
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924 L.R. Larson and N.C. Poudyal<br />
price for Peruvian residents – with occasional free days for locals (<strong>Andean</strong> Travel Web,<br />
2011; Barcelona Field Studies Centre, 2007). Though the price seems to not discourage<br />
international travelers, Amerindians who wish to visit the site for spiritual or cultural<br />
purposes can rarely afford access and are often displaced by large-scale tourism activities.<br />
Such conflicts between local interests and tourism-associated demands are not unique to<br />
Machu Picchu (e.g. Rugendyke & Son, 2005). The ICOMOS highlights the difficulties in<br />
integrating cultural resource management and tourism in its International Cultural Tourism<br />
Charter, asserting that physical, intellectual and emotive access to cultural heritage sites is<br />
a right that should not be denied (ICOMOS, 1999).<br />
Many locals believe the cultural “existence value” of a place like Machu Picchu cannot<br />
be expressed in economic terms or exchanges (Navrud & Ready, 2002), and some Peruvian<br />
residents that oppose foreign tourism are fighting to preserve their authentic cultural<br />
heritage. In 1999 and 2000, Cusqueños conducted a “March to Machu Picchu” denouncing<br />
government management policies in the Historic Sanctuary (Flores Ochoa, 2004). Yachay<br />
Wasi, a Cusco-based nongovernmental organization that works on cultural issues and sustainable<br />
development to benefit indigenous people, urges the world to critically analyze<br />
the consequences of mass tourism. At a 2006 United Nations forum, Yachay Wasi issued<br />
its Inka Challenge: “Will world governments, scientists, nonprofit sponsors and tourists<br />
respect indigenous people’s spiritual heritage, religion, burial sites, and human remains,<br />
and will the international community respect and allow them to protect their sacred sites”<br />
(Yachay Wasi, 2006). Concerns of indigenous people are now an integral part of UN agendas,<br />
and efforts to support local pride and regional identity must become an important part<br />
of management plans in places like Machu Picchu.<br />
Institutional complexity<br />
To compound the problems already facing the site, the Management Unit of Machu Picchu<br />
– the entity charged with carrying out Machu Picchu’s Master Plan – is composed of<br />
many different agencies. A recent restructuring of the Peruvian government has further<br />
complicated matters. Each of the disparate bodies that govern Machu Picchu has a distinct<br />
agenda, and each considers management options that balance public access, economic<br />
opportunity, and cultural and biological preservation in the region to different degrees.<br />
Thus, Peru’s National Institute of Culture (INC, now the Ministry of Culture) is charged<br />
with preserving the country’s national heritage and manages the cultural and historic aspects<br />
of the site, including the actual ruins. The INRENA (now the National Service of Protected<br />
Areas – or SERNANP - in the Ministry of the Environment) is responsible for the flora<br />
and fauna in the Historic Sanctuary. The Ministry of Industry, Tourism, Integration and<br />
International Trade Negotiations (MITINCI, now the Ministry of Foreign Commerce and<br />
Tourism – or MINCETUR) regulates tourism and development in the area, and the state’s<br />
Tourism Promotion Commission (PromPeru) actively markets the site to potential visitors.<br />
All activity in and around Machu Picchu is also overseen and monitored by two international<br />
organizations, UNESCO and IUCN. A heavy emphasis on centralized decision-making<br />
orchestrated by powerful government elites, not governance that involves a full range<br />
of invested individuals and organizations, has been a major constraint for developing<br />
countries trying to promote community participation in the tourism industry (Plummer<br />
& Fennell, 2009; Tosun, 2000). At Machu Picchu, regional and local authorities have a<br />
small but growing voice in management decisions, and efforts are underway to expand<br />
a management committee that incorporates public and private stakeholders not currently<br />
represented (PromPeru, personal communication, July 22, 2011). Although Machu Picchu’s
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Journal of Sustainable Tourism 925<br />
managers agree on the general goal of sustainable development, the current Master Plan<br />
does not adequately describe how this philosophy should dictate management strategies<br />
or who should be responsible for implementing them (UNESCO, 2011). The absence<br />
of an effective autonomous collaborative committee to create and implement directives<br />
and dictate the future course of Machu Picchu represents a major management problem<br />
(Regalado-Pezua & Arias-Valencia, 2006).<br />
Sustainable tourism priorities at Machu Picchu<br />
To maintain the value of the site and to mollify some of the challenges described above,<br />
most management-oriented documents at Machu Picchu have focused on a central question<br />
– the establishment and regulation of an appropriate carrying capacity. The concept of<br />
carrying capacity has been applied in a variety of settings and generally describes the level<br />
of visitor use that can be appropriately accommodated in a site without altering the physical<br />
environment or the overall visitor experience (Manning, 1999; McCool & Lime, 2001). At<br />
Machu Picchu, tourism is pushing the limits on both fronts. Excessive use has destroyed<br />
important archeological remains and overcrowding has negatively affected the aesthetic<br />
enjoyment, historical immersion, imagination and solitude that appeal to many visitors<br />
(Emmott, 2003). Larger crowds may impact the international public’s perception of Machu<br />
Picchu as a must-see tourist attraction and detract from its value as a World Heritage Site.<br />
Although Machu Picchu’s managers and operators acknowledge the importance of<br />
carrying capacity studies for the preservation of their site, they cannot agree on specific<br />
numbers. UNESCO, a conservation-minded organization, suggests that tourist numbers<br />
should be cut to 800 per day and visitors should wear soft shoes to reduce pressure on the<br />
ruins (Barcelona Field Studies Centre, 2007). Agencies hoping to increase tourism revenue<br />
in the region believe that the estimate is far too conservative. Peru’s INC, which oversees<br />
day-to-day running of Machu Picchu, claims that the site can cope with 3000 tourists per day<br />
(Emmott, 2003). Orient Express Hotels, the private British company that runs the Machu<br />
Picchu Sanctuary Lodge and the PeruRail tourist train from Cuzco, believes that the site<br />
can easily sustain more than 4000 daily visitors (Collyns, 2007). Seeking a compromise,<br />
Peru’s Regional Office of Culture tentatively accepted a management plan (effective 15 July<br />
2011) created with input from UNESCO that capped daily entries to Machu Picchu at 2500<br />
visitors, with further restrictions for specific locations within the Sanctuary (PromPeru,<br />
personal communication, July 22, 2011). However, enduring consensus in Machu Picchu’s<br />
carrying capacity debate is unlikely given the conflicting priorities of the site’s complex<br />
management conglomerate. In fact, research in multiple tourism settings has shown that<br />
attempts to define optimal carrying capacity in complex real-world situations are generally<br />
futile (McCool & Lime, 2001). In many cases, the failure of management plans is due<br />
in part to an unbalanced emphasis on overall carrying capacity and a lack of specificity<br />
regarding management goals and objectives (UNEP, 2008).<br />
The first step toward a sustainable future for tourism at Machu Picchu therefore involves<br />
the identification of appropriate management priorities. Regional authorities generally place<br />
a premium on tourism promotion and economic expansion, while international agencies<br />
often focus on conservation and preservation. Integration of these concepts is central to<br />
successful management in parks where multiple issues influence management decisions<br />
(McCool & Moisey, 2008). Therefore, all parties with a vested interest in tourism need<br />
to come together and engage in participatory planning focused on unified goals (Mitchell<br />
& Eagles, 2001; Regalado-Pezua & Arias-Valencia, 2006). At Machu Picchu, these goals<br />
can be expressed in a pyramid of priorities (Figure 1). Site management should begin with
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926 L.R. Larson and N.C. Poudyal<br />
Sustainable Tourism:<br />
A Pyramid of Priorities<br />
Sustainable Use<br />
(Maintain resource value)<br />
Social Viability<br />
(Stakeholder satisfaction, collaborative planning)<br />
Resource Utility<br />
(Support local development, increase economic benefits)<br />
Resource Integrity<br />
(Protect biological diversity, prevent site degradation, preserve cultural heritage)<br />
Figure 1. Pyramid of priorities to guide sustainable tourism management.<br />
foundational efforts to preserve resource integrity, capturing the fundamental essence of<br />
the site and its unique “spirit of place” (Shackley, 2006). Once the protection of basic assets<br />
is secured, resource utility leading to social viability becomes the primary focus. This<br />
synergistic, hierarchical network of factors results in sustainable resource use, generating<br />
a positive feedback loop that theoretically persists in perpetuity. Although the pyramid<br />
of priorities concept may serve as a valuable point of origin for planning efforts, actual<br />
management requires far more explicit goals and actions. Successful growth of tourism in<br />
Machu Picchu and other World Heritage Sites may ultimately depend on an objective-driven,<br />
indicator-based adaptive management framework.<br />
Sustainable tourism: an adaptive resource management framework<br />
Defining management objectives and actions<br />
A major criticism of Machu Picchu’s existing Master Plan, as well as management guidelines<br />
for international tourist destinations in other developing countries, has been the ambiguity<br />
of goals and strategies and a conspicuous absence of detail for possible actions (Schianetz<br />
& Kavanagh, 2008; UNEP, 2004; Zan & Lusiani, 2011). This criticism could be resolved<br />
using an adaptive resource management (ARM) framework, which applies knowledge from<br />
related disciplines to address contemporary tourism issues (Farrell & Twining-Ward, 2004).<br />
Variations of the ARM approach to informed decision-making have been applied in<br />
a variety of settings. Early iterations still in use today include the Limits of Acceptable<br />
Change (LAC; Stankey, Cole, Lucas, Peterson, & Frissell, 1985) and the Visitor Impact<br />
Management Model (VIM; Graefe, Kuss, & Vaske, 1990), both of which aim to set limits<br />
and minimize negative impacts from recreation and tourism on public lands in the United<br />
<strong>State</strong>s. Newer strategies such as the Tourism Optimization Management Model (TOMM;<br />
Miller & Twining-Ward, 2005; Twining-Ward & Butler, 2002) and the Integrated Monitoring<br />
and Adaptive Management System (iMAMS; QStation, 2009) have been used by<br />
Australian tourism operators to assess, monitor and successfully achieve sustainable outcomes.<br />
Although research has identified several distinct decision-making methods used<br />
in the adaptive management process, many similarities exist (McFadden, Hiller, & Tyre,<br />
2011). Each framework relies on specific objectives or standards, associated indicators
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Journal of Sustainable Tourism 927<br />
that facilitate monitoring of these objectives and corresponding actions that help to reduce<br />
uncertainty associated with decision outcomes and ensure that desired objectives are being<br />
met (Allen et al., 2011; McCool & Lime, 2001).<br />
An effective ARM approach consists of several basic steps (Knutson et al. 2011; Miller<br />
& Twining-Ward, 2005). First, managers must define the problem and a corresponding key<br />
objective that represents a desired outcome. At Machu Picchu, the fundamental objective<br />
might be to maintain the site’s value as a unique natural, cultural and economic resource.<br />
Next, managers must identify a set of means objectives that support the fundamental<br />
objective. At Machu Picchu, these objectives might include simultaneously minimizing<br />
the impacts and maximizing the benefits of tourism. Other targets or means subobjectives<br />
could then be constructed, creating a transparent network structure to help guide the<br />
decision-making process. For example, means subobjectives under the broader category of<br />
“minimizing the impacts of tourism” might address the challenge of ecosystem fragility,<br />
whereas means subobjectives under the “maximizing the benefits of tourism” could focus<br />
on issues such as site accessibility and community development. Each means subobjective<br />
is associated with a corresponding set of management actions necessary to achieve the<br />
desired goal (Figure 2). In this proposed framework, objectives are designed to integrate<br />
stakeholder concerns and specifically address the major challenges facing Machu Picchu<br />
from a social–ecological perspective that incorporates human, natural and support systems<br />
(Schianetz & Kavanagh, 2008). The traditionally narrow focus of previous efforts<br />
to define tourism goals has restricted progress in other protected areas. By incorporating<br />
noneconomic factors and simultaneously balancing costs and benefits, the ARM objectives<br />
outlined here provide a solid foundation for long-term success (Moscardo, 2011).<br />
The input of all groups, including local residents, tourists, tour operators and site managers,<br />
is a critical component of objective and action specification (Plummer & Fennell,<br />
2009; Stronza, 2001). A meta-analysis of international adaptive management supported this<br />
assertion, revealing that decision-theoretic approaches emphasizing stakeholder communication<br />
early in the process typically resulted in less complex models with greater efficacy<br />
addressing specific decision problems (McFadden et al., 2011). Adaptive management attempts<br />
that experience only limited success are often generic top-down systems focused<br />
around expert opinion, not place-based frameworks guided by local knowledge and concerns<br />
(Miller & Twining-Ward, 2006; Schianetz & Kavanagh, 2008). For example, a study<br />
of a rural Bolivian ecotourism destination demonstrated the importance of context-specific<br />
outcomes and the invaluable role of local contributions in the accomplishment of long-term<br />
goals (Jamal & Stronza, 2009). For ARM to function properly at Machu Picchu, local<br />
stakeholders should be involved throughout the constantly evolving planning process. This<br />
intentional inclusion of local input could help to resolve two of the major challenges facing<br />
Machu Picchu: local development and the persistence of Peruvian culture.<br />
Selecting appropriate indicators<br />
Although the identification of explicit management outcomes is important, goals and objectives<br />
alone are insufficient. A set of measured attributes must also be included to monitor<br />
progress and ensure that action goals are met. Recognizing the value of this approach,<br />
the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) has created a guide for the selection of<br />
performance indicators that measure the effects of tourism on the environment and poverty<br />
alleviation in the developing world (Miller & Twining-Ward, 2005; WTO, 2004). The nature<br />
of these sustainability indicators varies from site to site, but core indicators in the<br />
UNWTO framework generally focus on aspects including critical ecosystems, maintenance
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928 L.R. Larson and N.C. Poudyal<br />
Figure 2. Proposed adaptive management framework for Historic Sanctuary of Machu Picchu.
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Journal of Sustainable Tourism 929<br />
of natural capital stock, long-term use intensity, local involvement, well-developed plans,<br />
resident/customer satisfaction and tourism’s contribution to the economy (Miller, 2001;<br />
WTO, 1996). Research indicates that tourism experts around the world believe both objective<br />
(quantitative) and subjective (qualitative) metrics can provide important information<br />
(Choi & Sirakaya, 2006; Miller, 2001). Quantitative indicators often include raw data, ratios<br />
and percentages; qualitative indicators might incorporate categorical indices, and normative<br />
or nominal information associated with a resource (WTO, 2004). For indicators to function<br />
properly, they should be condensed into a concise set carefully selected by integrated, multidisciplinary<br />
advisory panels composed of expert and nonexpert stakeholders (Schianetz &<br />
Kavanagh, 2008). The indicators should also be subjected to a systematic screening process<br />
to identify limitations and methodological challenges (Miller & Twining-Ward, 2005).<br />
Overall, effective indicators are relevant, reliable, feasible and stable over an extended<br />
period of time (QStation, 2009; Twining-Ward & Butler, 2002).<br />
At Machu Picchu, a diverse suite of quantitative and qualitative indicators based on<br />
the UNWTO’s framework could measure and monitor progress and direct actions related<br />
to target objectives (Table 1). Some of these indicators include information that is already<br />
available through standard surveillance monitoring; others require additional research and<br />
data collection. For example, the role of tourism in community development could be<br />
tracked through quantitative evaluations of tourism integration (e.g. percentage of guides<br />
that are locals or percentage of hotels operated by locals) or qualitative assessments of<br />
community involvement (e.g. stakeholder ratings of perceived collaboration in the tourism<br />
planning process). Similarly, the economic benefits of tourism could be assessed by quantitative<br />
methods (e.g. daily tourism revenues) or qualitative approaches (e.g. stakeholder<br />
ratings of the distributional equity of tourism profits). Machu Picchu’s Management<br />
Committee has already identified many potential indicators in the site’s comprehensive<br />
234-page Master Plan (INC, 2005). However, the Committee has yet to devise a consistent<br />
strategy for implementing and monitoring these performance indicators (UNESCO, 2011;<br />
Zan & Lusiani, 2011). This stage of adaptive management – the monitoring phase – is<br />
where many sustainable tourism projects break down (Twining-Ward & Butler, 2002).<br />
Monitoring progress<br />
Monitoring is more than a stand-alone activity used to detect trends. In the ARM framework,<br />
monitoring can help managers determine which management practices meet specified<br />
objectives and develop flexible strategies for resolving recurring problems (Knutson et<br />
al., 2011; Plummer & Fennell, 2009). In practice, the major limitation of the UNWTO’s<br />
approach to indicators has been a heavy focus on the development of indicators with little<br />
emphasis on their actual implementation (Miller & Twining-Ward, 2006).<br />
For monitoring in ARM to be beneficial, it must be an iterative component of<br />
management-based science (Nichols & Williams, 2006). Managers should initiate a particular<br />
management option, evaluate its impact and learn from the results – adjusting management<br />
strategies as understanding improves (Williams, 2011a; Figure 3). This learning can<br />
occur “actively” through the deliberate reduction of uncertainty associated with particular<br />
outcomes, often using an experimental approach involving different actions on multiple<br />
units simultaneously. Alternatively, the learning can occur “passively” as a byproduct of<br />
systems that focus on changes in resource conditions with respect to desired objectives<br />
using one model at a time (Williams, 2011b). The passive approach is probably more feasible<br />
in the nascent stages of ARM at Machu Picchu, where managers are under pressure<br />
to implement actions that generate an immediate response (e.g. temporary site closures,
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930 L.R. Larson and N.C. Poudyal<br />
Table 1. Suggested indicators for specified objectives in adaptive management framework at Machu<br />
Picchu a .<br />
Objectives (with corresponding<br />
actions) Potential objective indicators b Potential subjective indicators b<br />
Protect biological diversity<br />
Maximize amount of protected<br />
habitat<br />
Increase populations of T&E<br />
species<br />
Minimize land use change and<br />
fragmentation in Urubamba<br />
Valley<br />
Prevent physical degradation<br />
Minimize erosion and<br />
landslide potential<br />
Minimize and properly<br />
dispose off waste<br />
Preserve cultural heritage<br />
Minimize damage to historic<br />
Inca structures<br />
Increase site accessibility for<br />
spiritual purposes<br />
Minimize exploitation of<br />
ethnic tourism<br />
Minimize socio-cultural<br />
impacts of tourism-related<br />
activities<br />
Support local development<br />
Increase local involvement in<br />
tourism industry<br />
Improve access and local<br />
infrastructure<br />
Increase educational<br />
opportunities<br />
No. of local species<br />
downgraded on IUCN Red<br />
List/yr<br />
Amount of habitat restored<br />
for T&E species<br />
Size/viability of threatened<br />
populations<br />
Percent change in interior<br />
forest area and edge/yr.<br />
Population density within 10<br />
km of site<br />
No. of people and visitor<br />
density across<br />
spatial/temporal scales<br />
Soil loss in valley and in<br />
ruins/yr<br />
Total weight of waste<br />
generated/month<br />
Percent wastewater treated<br />
before disposal<br />
No. of historic structures<br />
damaged/yr<br />
Percent revenue spent on<br />
structural renovation/yr<br />
No. of people attending<br />
cultural events at site/yr<br />
No. of interpretive signs<br />
highlighting Inca heritage<br />
No. of locals visiting site/yr<br />
No. of crimes committed in<br />
region/yr<br />
Site protection priority ratings<br />
(IUCN conventions)<br />
Site resiliency and habitat<br />
integrity ratings (experts)<br />
Site susceptibility to climate<br />
change ratings (experts)<br />
Landslide potential ratings<br />
(experts)<br />
Ratings of waste management<br />
procedures<br />
Perceived impacts of waste in<br />
local communities<br />
General appearance of site<br />
ratings<br />
Perceived authenticity of<br />
interpretive efforts<br />
Tour guide knowledge and<br />
performance ratings<br />
Ratings of perceived cultural<br />
degradation among locals<br />
Opinions toward current tourism<br />
practices<br />
Percentage of guides at site Perceived collaboration in<br />
that are locals<br />
planning process<br />
Percentage of hotels operated Rankings for levels of planned<br />
by locals<br />
development control<br />
No. of locals employed in Regulatory framework efficacy<br />
tourism industry<br />
ratings<br />
Ratio of foreign tourists to Business environment and<br />
local residents<br />
infrastructure ratings (locals<br />
No. of visitors/week reaching and managers)<br />
site from various access Perceivedcontributionof<br />
points (road, train, etc.) tourism to local development<br />
No. of social services<br />
(including education<br />
programs) available to<br />
locals<br />
projects<br />
(Continued on next page)
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Journal of Sustainable Tourism 931<br />
Table 1. Suggested indicators for specified objectives in adaptive management framework at Machu<br />
Picchu a . (Continued)<br />
Objectives (with corresponding<br />
actions) Potential objective indicators b Potential subjective indicators b<br />
Increase economic benefits<br />
Increase amount of foreign No. of tourists visiting site per Prioritization of tourism<br />
expenditures<br />
day, week, etc.<br />
rankings on multiple scales<br />
Increase flow of tourism Tourism revenue per day, Tourism marketing materials<br />
profits to local communities week,etc.(+ leakage) efficacy ratings<br />
(reduce leakage)<br />
No. of agencies/operators Distributional efficiency of<br />
Enhance marketing/promotion using site<br />
tourism profit ratings<br />
of tourism<br />
No. of jobs added by tourism Perceived impact of imported<br />
Ensure stakeholder satisfaction<br />
sector<br />
Percent economy based on<br />
tourism (local, regional,<br />
national)<br />
Indirect/direct economic<br />
impacts of tourism in the<br />
area<br />
tourism goods and services<br />
Maximize visitors’ satisfaction No. of conflicts/confrontations Satisfaction level ratings for<br />
Maximize locals’ satisfaction between tourists and locals, visitors and managers<br />
Maximize managers’<br />
locals/yr.<br />
Visitor perceptions of trip value<br />
satisfaction<br />
No. of protests/complaints given investment<br />
filed against<br />
Perceived crowding<br />
management/yr.<br />
Sustainability ratings for<br />
No. of repeat visitors/yr. operations<br />
a Full adaptive management framework is depicted in Figure 2.<br />
b Potential indicators are based on previous research and guidelines specified by the World Tourism Organization<br />
(WTO, 2004). The Machu Picchu Management Committee could adapt this framework to provide more specific,<br />
measurable and verifiable indicators.<br />
regulating visitor numbers, altered pricing schemes, restorations, education campaigns). As<br />
information is gathered, comparisons of desired outcomes and observed responses of the<br />
selected indicators facilitate a movement toward more promising management alternatives<br />
(Miller & Twining-Ward, 2005). Tourism managers at North Head Quarantine Station in<br />
New South Wales have already put these principles into practice (QStation, 2009). Using<br />
their iMAMS integrated monitoring approach, the QStation team developed a sustainability<br />
index to determine the percentage of environmental, cultural, social and economic indicators<br />
performing within their accepted range. Adaptive management responses are initiated<br />
when index scores are unsatisfactory.<br />
Although proposed solutions to complex management problems can be difficult to<br />
identify, ARM is specifically designed to deal with complicated circumstances. The ARM<br />
approach functions best in situations where controllability is high (i.e. management has the<br />
ability to affect resources) and uncertainty abounds (i.e. responses to management actions<br />
may vary), making it an ideal fit for remote World Heritage Sites like Machu Picchu (Allen<br />
et al., 2011). In summary, the constantly evolving implementation of ARM involves goals<br />
and objectives that are used to specify desired outcomes, indicators that serve as metrics<br />
for measuring the success of these outcomes, and monitoring that provides a mechanism to<br />
determine if these outcomes are being met. These interrelationships highlight the iterative,
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932 L.R. Larson and N.C. Poudyal<br />
Continue<br />
monitoring<br />
Set objectives/<br />
Define community values<br />
Develop appropriate indicators<br />
Develop a monitoring program/<br />
Inventory conditions<br />
Collect information/<br />
Are objectives being met?<br />
Yes No<br />
Initiate a management<br />
response<br />
Monitor<br />
response<br />
Figure 3. Schematic management diagram demonstrating adaptive management monitoring principles<br />
(adapted from Hammitt & Cole, 1998; Miller & Twining-Ward, 2005). Adapted version reprinted<br />
with permission of the authors and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.<br />
cyclical nature of an effectively flexible implementation of ARM and help explain why<br />
adoption of ARM may be critical to promoting sustainable tourism at Machu Picchu.<br />
Implementing ARM at Machu Picchu<br />
The Historic Sanctuary of Machu Picchu already has many of the essential ingredients for<br />
ARM in place. The site’s Master Plan, backed by UNESCO, encompasses a comprehensive<br />
resource assessment and outlines management recommendations (INC, 2005). The Plan<br />
would provide a valuable starting point for conversations among stakeholders focused<br />
on objectives, potential actions and corresponding indicators (Miller & Twining-Ward,<br />
2005). The Machu Picchu Management Committee, composed of local to international<br />
agencies, has already expressed a desire to expand and incorporate a broader range of<br />
actors in the public and private sectors (PromPeru, personal communication, July 22,<br />
2011). If open lines of communication are established and the ARM process is initiated,<br />
Machu Picchu’s managers may finally be able to successfully overcome the obstacle of<br />
institutional complexity with a long-term management framework that is flexible and open<br />
to participatory decision-making (Williams, 2011a). Presumably, this cooperative approach<br />
would generate greater social and financial support across multiple scales.
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Journal of Sustainable Tourism 933<br />
Other challenges remain, however. The Management Committee must determine which<br />
agencies and entities are responsible for implementing specified actions and monitoring<br />
progress. These agencies must be individually accountable for certain aspects of the site<br />
(e.g. protected habitat, historic structures, tourism profits, visitor satisfaction), and they<br />
must be collectively devoted to the fundamental objective of resource protection. Managers<br />
must simultaneously recognize the local value and global importance of Machu Picchu,<br />
balancing conservation-oriented edicts from organizations such as UNESCO with regional<br />
economic growth (Saarinen, 2006). A stakeholder meeting would set the ARM process in<br />
motion (Miller & Twining-Ward, 2005), extending the framework described here to create<br />
a more explicit action plan guided by site-specific knowledge of management objectives<br />
and measurable indicators of immediate, mid-term and long-term utility. Ultimately, a<br />
collaborative ARM approach should help to systematically resolve some of the challenges<br />
that impede the development of sustainable tourism at Machu Picchu, helping Peru to<br />
ensure that its “Lost City” is preserved in perpetuity.<br />
Conclusion<br />
Sustainable tourism resource management is an elusive goal in most developing countries,<br />
where ecological and cultural heritage is often sacrificed in pursuit of economic wellbeing<br />
(Keatinge, 1982). Peru’s economic growth and aggressive promotion of tourism have placed<br />
severe demographic pressure on its most valuable tourism asset, Machu Picchu, creating<br />
divergent opinions over management priorities. This conflict of interest is magnified by the<br />
site’s unparalleled combination of biological and archeological resources, fragility, remote<br />
location, extreme local poverty, emerging cultural tensions and institutional complexity. Existing<br />
management plans have provided few answers, generally exacerbating disagreement<br />
among stakeholders and pushing the groups charged with protecting Machu Picchu to the<br />
breaking point (Regalado-Pezua & Arias-Valencia, 2006; Zan & Lusiani, 2011). The future<br />
of the ancient Inca city depends on a delicate balance between preservation, utilization and<br />
sustainable growth.<br />
This paper suggests that an adaptive resource management approach may help planners<br />
and managers guide Machu Picchu’s growth. The ARM tourism framework would<br />
help to identify management priorities, facilitating the creation of cohesive goals and objectives<br />
among the various agencies responsible for conservation and development in the<br />
Historic Sanctuary. By individually monitoring specific indicators of quality across various<br />
spatial and temporal scales, managers could potentially address multiple management considerations<br />
that affect local residents, foreign tourists, private tour operators and regional<br />
governments. Furthermore, managers could foster resilience and flexibility by learning<br />
from inevitable mistakes and surprising responses, adjusting actions to better meet specified<br />
goals (Allen et al., 2011; QStation, 2009). Implementation of ARM would likely<br />
require substantial international investment, but a global commitment may be necessary<br />
for long-term conservation and appreciation of Machu Picchu and other premier World<br />
Heritage Sites (Saarinen, 2006). As more unique places around the world begin to feel<br />
the impending pressure of increased visitation (Weaver, 2011), the ARM approach may<br />
be necessary to support sustainable development that addresses environmental, economic<br />
and social challenges. If ARM is adopted successfully at Machu Picchu, then lessons<br />
learned from this sustainability framework could inform tourism practices at other heritage<br />
destinations surrounded by complex political circumstances and socioeconomic contexts.
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934 L.R. Larson and N.C. Poudyal<br />
Acknowledgements<br />
The authors wish to thank the anonymous <strong>Andean</strong> tour operators who supplied first-hand accounts of<br />
the current tourism situation at Machu Picchu. The authors also wish to thank PromPeru (La Comisión<br />
de Promoción del Perú para la Exportación y el Turismo) for providing updated information about<br />
the current state of management efforts within the Historic Sanctuary.<br />
Notes on contributors<br />
Lincoln R. Larson is a graduate student in the Natural Resource Recreation and Tourism program at the<br />
University of Georgia’s Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, USA. His interdisciplinary<br />
research focuses on a range of topics, including outdoor recreation, environmental education and<br />
human dimensions of conservation. Lincoln’s interest in sustainable tourism stems from his work on<br />
ecotourism projects in Peru.<br />
Neelam C. Poudyal is an Assistant Professor of Natural Resource Recreation and Tourism at the<br />
Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, USA. He teaches courses<br />
on Ecotourism and Sustainable Development and Recreation Resource Management, and the main<br />
themes of his research program include the human dimensions and economic analysis of natural<br />
resource recreation and tourism in the United <strong>State</strong>s and beyond.<br />
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10.1007/s11759-011-9167-7
ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE<br />
TROPICAL HIGHLANDS OF WESTERN SOUTH AMERICA<br />
KENNETH R. YOUNG and JENNIFER K. LIPTON<br />
Department of <strong>Geography</strong> and the Environment, University of Texas at Austin,<br />
Austin, TX 78712, U.S.A<br />
E-mail: kryoung@mail.utexas.edu<br />
Abstract. Climate changes occurring during the past several decades in the high elevations of the<br />
tropical Andes <strong>Mountain</strong>s have implications for the native plant and animal species, for the ecological<br />
integrity of the affected land cover, and for the human-biophysical systems involved. Consequences are<br />
also probable for rural inhabitants and their livelihoods, especially for farmers and pastoralists. Biophysical<br />
factors have always changed in these mountainous zones; the extent and degree of alteration<br />
acting on native and agricultural biodiversity is the concern. Addressing these climate changes is probably<br />
within the adaptive capacity of many local land-use systems, unless external socioeconomic or<br />
political forces are unsupportive or antagonistic. Suitable programs to provide information, subsidies,<br />
or alternatives could be designed. We highlight some of the inherent resiliencies of natural and cultural<br />
systems in the Andes and suggest that these systems contain lessons that could be useful elsewhere, in<br />
terms of the traits that allow for the sustainable utilization of dynamic and heterogeneous landscapes.<br />
1. Introduction<br />
Indications of dramatic and accelerating changes in the high elevations of the Andes<br />
<strong>Mountain</strong>s come from scientific observers who commented on retreating valley<br />
glaciers and ice cap margins above 5000 m elevation (Hastenrath and Ames, 1995;<br />
Kaser and Georges, 1999; Francou et al., 2003). One example is from the Quelccaya<br />
ice cap in southern Peru where 37 years of observations document an increased<br />
rate of retreat during the 1990s (Thompson et al., 2003). While loss of glacial ice<br />
signals climatic changes at higher elevations, at lower elevations the signs are more<br />
subtle, influencing landscapes and their human-biophysical systems. A human imprint<br />
in the Andes is near ubiquitous: agricultural fields reach to above 4000 m<br />
and livestock, especially cattle and sheep, graze to snowline. Local people interact<br />
with landscapes as they grow crops, extract natural resources such as firewood, and<br />
graze livestock (Gade, 1999; Mayer, 2002). Additionally, the rural inhabitants of the<br />
Andes are immersed in formal and informal institutions concerned with governing<br />
resources. To some extent, their decisions in relation to changing environmental<br />
controls must themselves be regulated by economic, cultural, political, and legal<br />
concerns. Their livelihoods and local landscape perspectives are important to consider<br />
when studying climate change and integrating its effects into large-scale policy<br />
considerations.<br />
Climatic Change (2006) 78: 63–102<br />
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9091-9 c○ Springer 2006
64 ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE<br />
The consequences of changing climatic processes on these areas are more subtle<br />
than solely the loss of glacial ice upslope. They will be complicated for both natural<br />
and cultural systems: shifts in plant species dominances, alterations in primary<br />
productivity, and changes in the kind and tempo of disturbance regimes. Human<br />
responses to the effects of climate change will likely be complex and variable.<br />
Individuals living within kilometers of mountain glaciers are directly affected by<br />
environmental perturbations. Implications for them might be alterations in the cover<br />
of spontaneously occurring and cultivated plants, in water resources, in exposure<br />
to natural hazards, and in household or community decisions on when and where<br />
to farm. Those shifts will affect the native biological diversity of the Andes, which<br />
is notable in its richness and uniqueness. In particular, the tropical latitudes of the<br />
Andes were recently ranked as one of the world’s most important and threatened<br />
biodiversity hotspots by Manne et al. (1999), Myers et al. (2000), and Brooks<br />
et al. (2002). This biodiversity is often adjacent to landscapes with high cultural<br />
diversity, as measured by ethnic or linguistic differences (Fjeldsä et al., 1999). There<br />
are numerous species with limited ranges (Young, 1995), leading to high placeto-place<br />
differences in species composition, for example, for birds (Poulsen and<br />
Krabbe, 1998; Ruggiero, 2001), plants (Young et al., 1997; Luteyn, 1999; Young and<br />
León, 1999; Keating et al., 2002; Young et al., 2002; Leimbeck et al., 2004), insects<br />
(Brehm et al., 2003), and aquatic organisms (González and Watling, 2003; Koínek<br />
and Villalobos, 2003). Biodiversity concerns are mediated through institutions,<br />
including community and household decisions on extraction and management of<br />
species considered useful.<br />
In this paper, we evaluate the likely consequences of ongoing and future climate<br />
changes for land-use systems of rural parts of the tropical Andes, for the<br />
various institutions that make land management decisions for the respective countries<br />
and landscapes, for the native plants and animals, and for the institutions<br />
involved in their conservation or utilization. Most of our experiences and examples<br />
are drawn from fieldwork in the Peruvian Andes, but many of our conclusions<br />
appear to be valid regionally. We obtained additional insights from participation<br />
in formal and informal projects examining the state of conservation and rural development<br />
programs in Peru. These included national-level reviews (Rodríguez<br />
and Young, 2000), and regional assessments (León and Young, 1996; Young and<br />
León, 1999, 2001). Our eventual goal is to provide sufficient information so that<br />
the climate-related changes in the tropical Andes can be compared and contrasted<br />
with fluxes in other places worldwide. We suspect that some of the inherent resiliencies<br />
of natural and cultural systems in the Andes contain lessons for use<br />
elsewhere.<br />
We begin with a case study from an area in and around Huascaran National Park,<br />
containing the world’s largest protected tropical mountain landscape. We then place<br />
those findings in the context of the general features of <strong>Andean</strong> rural livelihoods,<br />
stressing the aspects that seem most relevant to climate change. Finally, we evaluate<br />
the likely resilience of those coupled human-biophysical systems, especially as
KENNETH R. YOUNG AND JENNIFER K. LIPTON 65<br />
viewed through the lens of governance and decision making by the people and<br />
institutions involved.<br />
2. Case Study: Huascaran National Park and Surroundings<br />
in North-Central Peru<br />
Huascaran National Park (HNP), located at approximately 9 ◦ 30 ′ S and 77 ◦ 49 ′ Win<br />
the Department of Ancash, north-central Peru, protects tropical alpine vegetation<br />
communities along the highest mountain chain in the tropical Andes, the Cordillera<br />
Blanca (Figures 1 and 2). The information in this case study serves as an example of<br />
the interlinkages that exist among different institutional frameworks all operating<br />
within one defined study area. Our goal is to reveal some of the challenges and<br />
benefits facing decision-makers concerned with biodiversity and climate change in<br />
tropical mountain environments.<br />
The Cordillera Blanca is one of the world’s youngest exposed granitic batholithic<br />
intrusions (Atherton and Petford, 1996; McNulty and Farber, 2002). Extending approximately<br />
180 km parallel to the Peruvian coast with over 200 peaks that surpass<br />
5000 m elevation, HNP encompasses most of the mountain range. It covers 340,000<br />
ha and includes Mt. Huascarán (6768 m) as the highest point (Figure 2). Given the<br />
tropical location, annual seasonal temperature variability is minimal staying at<br />
approximately 15 ◦ C at mid-elevations. However, in the upper elevations diurnal<br />
temperatures may fluctuate dramatically, resulting in daily freeze-thaw events. The<br />
Cordillera Blanca glaciers rarely extend below about 4700 m and as evidence suggests,<br />
this limit has been moving upwards as glaciers retreat, increasing the size and<br />
number of proglacial lakes, which can be dangerous if they become destabilized<br />
(Ames et al., 1989; Lliboutry et al., 1977; Kaser and Osmoston, 2002). Glacial<br />
runoff, 296 glacial lakes, and seasonal rainfall (October to March) provide not only<br />
water for drinking, agriculture, and industry for the park’s peripheral communities<br />
and cities, but also hydroelectricity for distant urban centers on the Peruvian<br />
coast. Amidst the numerous glacial valleys that intersect the eastern and western<br />
flanks of the Cordillera Blanca, with steep elevation gradients ranging from 1900<br />
m to upwards of 6000 m, is an heterogeneous mosaic of vegetation and land-cover<br />
types. High <strong>Andean</strong> woodlands of Polylepis, Buddleia, and Gynoxis and stands<br />
of Puya raimondii, form isolated patches throughout the national park (Smith,<br />
1988). Cushion-plant communities, wetlands, and natural grasslands are also considered<br />
a top priority by the park managers for flora and fauna habitat conservation.<br />
Vicuña (Vicugna vicugna), the <strong>Andean</strong> bear (Tremarctos ornatus), <strong>Andean</strong><br />
huemul deer (Hippocamelus antisensis), and the <strong>Andean</strong> condor (Vultur gryphus)<br />
are species under protection and conservation priorities within the national park<br />
(INRENA, 2003).<br />
Approximately 337,520 inhabitants, mainly bilingual Quechua-Spanish speakers,<br />
live on both sides of the mountain range and are engaged in livelihood strategies
66 ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE<br />
Figure 1. National protected area system in Peru, with the general location of the case study indicated<br />
by arrows.<br />
of subsistence and market-based agro-pastoralism, mining, and tourism. Population<br />
in urban centers, such as the departmental capital of Huaraz, has increased<br />
over the past few decades due to migration from rural areas and has been driven<br />
by job opportunities in commercial centers. Situated just to the west and parallel to<br />
the Cordillera Blanca is the intensively cultivated Santa River Valley, where urban<br />
development, infrastructure, and services are more pronounced than on the eastern<br />
side of the mountains (Figure 2). On the eastern flank of the mountain range<br />
are smaller populated centers and more isolated valleys, including the Mosna and<br />
Pomabamba River Valleys, which flow to the Marañon River system and eventually<br />
drain to the Amazon basin. Private property owners and peasant communities
KENNETH R. YOUNG AND JENNIFER K. LIPTON 67<br />
Figure 2. Location of the case study in north-central Peru of Huascaran National Park (which includes<br />
much of the Cordillera Blanca), the Cordillera Huayhuash Reserved Zone, and major urban centers.<br />
(comunidades campesinas) have lands or perceived property rights that extend into<br />
the national park. Agricultural production of alfalfa, corn, wheat, barley, and beans<br />
occurs predominantly at elevations between 2000–3200 m. Within intermontane<br />
basins and valleys, potatoes, ulluco, oca, broad beans, and quinoa are frequently<br />
cultivated from 2500–4000 m. Communities in the study area also often utilize
68 ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE<br />
upper elevations (3900 to more than 5000 m), dominated by grasslands, woodland<br />
patches, shrublands, and wetland plants, for seasonal rotational grazing of mostly<br />
cattle, horses, and sheep and, less frequently, alpacas and llamas.<br />
The delimiting boundary for the national park was established at roughly the<br />
4000 m elevation line in 1975. Prior to the creation of the park, the highland<br />
area was under the jurisdiction of large farms (haciendas), private ownership, or<br />
mining concessions. Peruvian agrarian reform took place between the years of<br />
1969–1975 and was coincident with regional rebuilding and restructuring following<br />
a destructive 1970 earthquake and subsequent ice and rock avalanche that took the<br />
lives of over 18,000 people in the immediate area (Lliboutry et al., 1977; Kaser<br />
and Osmoston, 2002). The park was established for the conservation of the unique<br />
flora and fauna and as a tourist destination for Peruvians and foreigners alike.<br />
Local people, who often self-identify as campesinos (peasants), are involved in<br />
seasonal adventure- and ecotourism-based economies as guides or porters and in<br />
commercial services, in addition to traditional agropastoral and mining livelihoods<br />
(Bartle, 1993). In many zones of the park, conflicts exist between local interests<br />
and park directives regarding access to and use of what is legally considered park<br />
territory.<br />
Located approximately 120 km to the southeast of HNP is another range, the<br />
Cordillera Huayhuash (Figures 1 and 2). This mountain range extends for 26 km<br />
between 10 ◦ 12 ′ and 10 ◦ 27 ′ S and about 76 ◦ 55 ′ N and has over 117 glaciers with<br />
a majority draining to the Pacific (Ames et al., 1989). Long-term agro-pastoral use<br />
has facilitated culturally created biological diversity while areas of Polylepis forest<br />
patches harbor distinct avifauna habitat (Cerrate, 1979; Oxford University, 1996).<br />
The area surrounding the Cordillera Huayhuash was officially integrated in 2002<br />
into the Peruvian national protected-area system and is categorized as a Reserved<br />
Zone (Resolucion Ministerial, 2002), while it awaits formal categorization and<br />
delimitation.<br />
In-residence during 2002 and 2003, the second author conducted fieldwork in<br />
core and periphery communities of HNP and the Cordillera Huayhuash. As part<br />
of a study on landscape change and national park management, the research included<br />
collecting ground truth data for different land cover types. Semi-structured<br />
interviews were carried out with 117 individuals (89 men, 28 women). All interviewees<br />
lived in the park periphery and had a vested interest in the resources of<br />
the region; they were, therefore, defined as stakeholders. Key informants interviewed<br />
were engaged in park management, glacial research, peasant community<br />
groups, and/or individuals with private interests. Interviews were conducted in<br />
homes, fields, and offices in Spanish and Quechua with the help of field assistants.<br />
Interviews and discussions with household, community, and regional-level<br />
officials provided qualitative data for the analysis of perspectives on landscape<br />
change and potential responses to climate change. During the semi-structured interviews,<br />
the informants were asked open-ended questions covering the following<br />
areas: household and community land use and land-cover change, perceptions of
KENNETH R. YOUNG AND JENNIFER K. LIPTON 69<br />
climatic changes, glacial ice limit differences, agro-pastoral production rates and<br />
changes, institutional participation, and interactions with the park. Fieldwork also<br />
included community mapping to obtain Quechua toponyms, land-cover categories,<br />
and historical land-use and land-cover descriptions. To obtain the interviewees’<br />
perspectives and discourse on park management and landscape change, data were<br />
sought at various levels of institutional hierarchy. The institutional interactions and<br />
forms of adaptive governance that occurred within this one region help illustrate<br />
the complex levels and issues involved in resiliency of land-use systems and biodiversity<br />
conservation.<br />
We became sensitized to the perceptions of climate change on future landscape<br />
scenarios by conversations with local residents. A typical example is Felix Valverde,<br />
who lives in the park periphery. We visited his lands in July 2002 and 2003. Born and<br />
raised in the same locale, he lives with his family at 4290 m. They are members of the<br />
peasant community of Aquia, located 18 km to the southwest of his dwellings. Their<br />
livelihood is dependent upon livestock, subsistence agriculture, and occasional<br />
wage-work. The Valverdes personally own over 100 head of livestock, mostly sheep,<br />
horses and burros. In addition, in exchange for goods, they serve as guardians for<br />
other animals that are owned by Aquia community members who live closer to<br />
town. The Valverde family has agricultural lands at lower elevations closer to the<br />
town where they grow crops such as wheat, beans and maize, plus <strong>Andean</strong> tubers:<br />
mashua, oca, potatoes, and ulluco. With a newly paved road, they are able to travel<br />
to their fields and to town more frequently than in the past.<br />
Señor Valverde’s concerns about glacial retreat and the impact that it has made<br />
in his life—and would make in the future—were striking. Over the years he has<br />
watched as the glaciers have receded, and he knows that fairly soon they might be<br />
gone; some small glacial caps in the valley where he lives have already disappeared.<br />
As he identified different (de)glaciated mountain peaks, with elevations ranging<br />
from approximately 5095–5250 meters around his homestead, his recall of where<br />
the glacial margins used to be was often associated with personal events in his life.<br />
For example, in the 1960s he worked for a Peruvian-owned silver mine and on his<br />
way up to work over the pass, he used to cut off pieces of the glacial ice. Today<br />
there is a layer of talus to demarcate this past glacial lobe boundary. Thinking<br />
about this kind of change provoked him to comment upon how the mountains will<br />
soon be “desnudo” (naked) and only rock will remain. He is certain that this will<br />
happen within his lifetime and that it will affect his livelihood. He further noted that<br />
the immediate environmental changes were not only related to the disappearance<br />
of the glaciers, but also to a difference in water drainage patterns and a drop in<br />
precipitation. As glaciers have receded, some drainage and runoff channels that<br />
were accessed by the Valverde family diminished in flow and were now either<br />
intermittent or dry. As a result of this change, he needed to obtain water from<br />
sources further away where runoff and glacial melt had increased. Also, he related<br />
how, in some valley bottoms, lakes and wetland areas increased in size, so they had<br />
changed the sites where they took their sheep for pasturing.
70 ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE<br />
According to more than half (56%) of informants, glacial land cover is undergoing<br />
the most evident rate of change throughout the area. This is corroborated<br />
by glacial inventories and long term studies of glacial recession completed in<br />
the study area (Ames et al., 1989; Hastenrath and Ames, 1995a, 1995b; Kaser et<br />
al., 1996; Kaser and Georges, 1997; Morales, 2000; Thompson, 2002; Kaser and<br />
Osmoston, 2002; Thompson et al., 2003; Francou et al., 2003; Silverio and Jaquet,<br />
2005). Georges (2004) reported that glacial cover has decreased from an estimated<br />
extent of 800–850 km 2 in the 1930s to only 619 km 2 by the beginning of the 1990s.<br />
We observed that people from different communities in our study area have, with<br />
a sense of humor, renamed the recently deglaciated mountains. Local toponyms<br />
that once described a shape of an ice cap, now refer to the loss of that glacier. For<br />
example, a mountain that was called “sleeping lion” for the shape of the glacier is<br />
now called “lion has left” (that is, león dormido has become león se ha ido). Or in<br />
the local dialect a mountain that once had a glacier is now called simply “mountain<br />
without glacier.”<br />
Quechua households and communities within the study area had environmental<br />
perceptions that were informal indicators of seasonal climate variability and<br />
change. Approximately two thirds (68%) of informants, including Sr. Valverde,<br />
when questioned commented on how precipitation has decreased compared to the<br />
past. Many local residents noted a decline in hail and sleet, which seasonally blanketed<br />
landscapes with overnight accumulations of more than a few centimeters.<br />
Sleet seemed to serve as an important environmental predictor for the likelihood of<br />
damaging frosts, affecting seasonal agricultural patterns. These traditional signals<br />
provided farmers with an ecological agricultural decision-making toolset that in<br />
many cases might be relied upon more firmly than technological or scientificallyvalidated<br />
signals. As another example, in a couple of communities, the presence of<br />
an <strong>Andean</strong> swift circling and flying in low to mid-elevation zones indicated that the<br />
rains were going to arrive early. Conversely, a relatively low population of firefly<br />
beetles indicated that it would be a dry season.<br />
Woodland and grassland cover were two other land cover categories that informants<br />
claimed to have changed over time. Data from Byers (2000), who used<br />
repeat photography of specific valleys within HNP from the years of 1936 and 1998,<br />
clarifies that native forest cover of Polylepis stayed the same or increased, while<br />
nonnative forest cover of Eucalyptus and Pinus increased. Contrarily, our informants<br />
claimed that native forest cover had reduced. Reasons stated for the change<br />
in forest cover were that tourists utilized wood for campfires, mining camps used<br />
it for fire and construction, people from communities removed wood for cooking<br />
and construction, and that natural fires destroyed woodland patches. According to<br />
34% of informants interviewed, grassland cover had reduced in terms of quality of<br />
production for livestock. Grasslands were described by informants as overgrazed,<br />
insufficient for cattle or with a low quality of native grasses. An indicator of reduced<br />
forage value is said to be the presence of a high-elevation cactus, Opuntia flocossa,<br />
which becomes more common with overgrazing. Both of these land cover changes
KENNETH R. YOUNG AND JENNIFER K. LIPTON 71<br />
were identified by local rural residents as a change in spatial extent and quality<br />
of the land cover itself. When discussing changes in climate, people often directly<br />
correlated the change in climate to a change or potential change in agro-pastoral<br />
productivity.<br />
For highland families, livelihood modifications and adaptations are imminent in<br />
the ongoing landscape change associated with glacial retreat and climate change.<br />
As in the case of the Valverdes, decisions on grazing, herd size, dealing with<br />
disease, and agricultural patterns are ongoing. An example of the complexity of<br />
these interactions is in regards to grazing conditions. Cattle are considered an<br />
investment for many rural families; a source of livelihood and wealth. Informants<br />
commented that reduced fodder has led to inadequate milk production. One possible<br />
household-level response to these perceptions would be to adjust herd size or, more<br />
commonly, to diversify livelihoods and seek supplementary income sources, such<br />
as wage labor, to compensate for declining production. Another response might be<br />
to acquire usage rights for grazing at higher elevations.<br />
Informants indicated that livelihoods based solely on agriculture were currently<br />
insufficient given the amount and rising costs of inputs, labor, resulting yield, and<br />
market prices. In fact, of 67 men interviewed in Ancash in 2002 and 2003, 52<br />
(78%) participated in part-time wage labor in other farms, jobs, or regions of Peru.<br />
The majority of jobs sought within Ancash included tourism, mining, and labor on<br />
other farmsteads, as well as short-term employment in governmental programs for<br />
forestry, roads, housing, and other construction infrastructure projects. In addition,<br />
young men from agricultural communities frequently out-migrated to urban areas<br />
seeking wage-labor and opportunities. In one sector of a community in Ancash,<br />
87% of the young men between the ages of 27 and 33 had left the community. This<br />
type of demographic change will have an impact on the future of community level<br />
decisions and will reduce the experiential traditional knowledge that is required to<br />
sustain culturally maintained agricultural biodiversity (e.g., Stobart and Howard,<br />
2002). Women are involved in almost all of the agro-pastoral functions and are in<br />
charge while husbands and sons migrate seasonally. However, they are frequently<br />
marginalized from direct positions in community social organizations, assemblies,<br />
or training classes.<br />
Informants indicated that current market returns for subsistence crops do not<br />
compensate for their cost of agricultural inputs. This economic stress was emphasized<br />
on a regional level: in July 2002, campesinos participated in three days of<br />
marches and strikes to voice these and other concerns, effectively shutting down<br />
urban areas and principal transportation routes. In addition to these acts of resistance,<br />
farmers responding to market-driven forces adapt to new management<br />
practices and build institutional connections with technical agro-pastoral programs.<br />
National and international nongovernmental (NGO) networks that promote agricultural<br />
production along economic corridors spread information about new techniques<br />
and varieties. For example, on the eastern periphery of HNP, in response to a<br />
regional development program, farmers are integrating different varieties of maize,
72 ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE<br />
primarily from southern Peru, which are known to be in demand and can be cultivated<br />
at slightly higher elevations. Community institutions may seek out respected<br />
NGOs that offer technical assistance, because of a keen interest in enhancing commercial<br />
production and bettering local skill-sets and knowledge. NGO and other<br />
institutional technical programs will need to update and modify their advice, skills,<br />
and techniques to respond to potential changes in pests or other management and<br />
production issues associated with climate change. These transnational networks<br />
simultaneously link producers to potential international export markets.<br />
Many individuals in the study area had serious concerns about running water<br />
and were aware that, although now they might have water, as the glaciers recede<br />
irrigation canals would possibly have less flow and some highland crops would be<br />
in jeopardy. A fear generally expressed was that the glaciated mountains someday<br />
would resemble the semiarid, rain-shadow mountains visible on the horizon towards<br />
the dry Pacific slopes; thus, this fear raised their concerns about possible loss<br />
of water-availability, increased fire-prone areas, and shifts in agricultural zonation.<br />
In one northern valley where water was being diverted for hydroelectric purposes,<br />
informants discussed their concerns about the lack of sufficient water for household<br />
use and for irrigation of mid-elevation crops. In other areas, freshwater primarily<br />
from glacial melt was channeled for mining and industrial needs that would otherwise<br />
be used by the rural populations for agriculture and consumption. A subsidiary<br />
concern is that with glacial retreat, increased destabilization of slopes might occur,<br />
causing natural hazards, such as landslides and mudflows, as has occurred in<br />
the past (Lliboutry et al., 1977; Kaser and Osmoston, 2002). Local communities<br />
are vulnerable to these conditions. Regional and national institutions will need to<br />
respond to damage when it occurs and to plan for increased risks in the future.<br />
Regional institutions stabilize and drain glacial lakes, as well as reinforce dams.<br />
However, what are lacking are appropriate social mechanisms, such as regional and<br />
community-based warning systems, logistical emergency plans, infrastructure, and<br />
financial support.<br />
Although current research efforts can monitor runoff from the glaciers of the<br />
Cordillera Blanca for local needs (Kaser et al., 2001; Mark and Seltzer, 2003), a<br />
scale-related disjuncture exists between the scientific-technical studies that examine<br />
hydrologic resources of the Cordillera Blanca, the national institutions involved<br />
in water use and planning, and the demands and needs of local populations. Private,<br />
transnational corporate institutions with political and economic clout have<br />
access to water resources and are assured of compliance from national and regional<br />
institutions that manage HNP’s natural resources and protect its biodiversity. Communities<br />
have protested and petitioned to regional officials for better safeguards of<br />
community water rights. Informants commented in interviews and in public meetings<br />
that, given the private, regional, and national interests associated with water<br />
usage, the local communities will be the first affected by water scarcity and imposed<br />
restrictions, while potentially the last to have their needs addressed. Due to previous<br />
political situations, there is a legacy of mistrust and apprehension that many
KENNETH R. YOUNG AND JENNIFER K. LIPTON 73<br />
of the campesinos have toward the national and corporate interests involved with<br />
water resources. What remains to be seen is how these multiple institutions will<br />
collectively negotiate the potential impacts of hydrologic resource scarcity with<br />
impending (and continuing) climate change.<br />
Differences in perspectives, by individual and community institutions, for tenure<br />
and rights to highland resources of the “protected” mountain landscape are critical<br />
factors in the conservation of biodiversity in the Cordillera Blanca. Although the<br />
boundary of the national park has been established for 30 years, from a local livelihood<br />
perspective, individual and community needs take precedence when it comes<br />
to resource use. Individuals and representative community institutions surrounding<br />
HNP consider a number of the regional and national institutions affiliated with<br />
conservation as “hypocritical,” “corrupt,” and “paternalistic,” as striving to satisfy<br />
the centralized Lima economy and political needs before they address local conditions.<br />
Despite a norm of some internal disharmony amongst peasant community<br />
members, they share an overriding bond of collective action, trust, and community<br />
cohesion that supercedes the external authority imposed by regional and national<br />
conservation institutions. Elements of trust and collective action are what facilitate<br />
adaptive capacity and governance in social ecological systems. In one of the sites<br />
where interviews were carried out, informants were asked to state the organizations<br />
and institutions that they were directly involved with: 82% participated in at least<br />
seven different committees or groups. The predominant committees that had membership<br />
were concerned with agricultural lands, pastures, forests, irrigation, sports,<br />
health, and the community kitchen. Community institutions are viewed as having<br />
served as reliable social scaffolding to provide support, information, and expertise<br />
to members and affiliates when other external institutions have been unreliable,<br />
self-interested, or unavailable. Based on these and other observations, our conclusion<br />
is that the community level of adaptability and resiliency, aided by clever<br />
land-use decisions by households, will allow many rural <strong>Andean</strong> residents to cope<br />
with climate change.<br />
Regional, national, and international institutions interested in preserving biodiversity<br />
conservation in the face of climate change, for example by establishing conservation<br />
corridors and additional protected areas, will need to address and surmount<br />
embedded negative perspectives to achieve long term goals and plans. Piecemeal<br />
approaches, historical legacies, and improper management of conservation areas in<br />
<strong>Andean</strong> areas have been the result of centralization and lack of funding for projects,<br />
despite ample local technical expertise and knowledge. For example, local community<br />
actors are in the position of deciding the status of the Cordillera Huayhuash<br />
as a potential protected area and are involved in asserting local level agendas into<br />
future national conservation planning and institutional structures. However, there<br />
is a divergence of interests and agendas among different sociopolitical actors in the<br />
Cordillera Huayhuash. Fujimori-era neoliberal economic reforms attracted foreign<br />
mining investors to the region, and while the mines offered jobs and opened up new<br />
roads, communities also perceived a state-mandated loss of access to the land from
74 ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE<br />
national or external interests. Local institutions organized by charismatic community<br />
leaders are in the process of facilitating demands to maintain autonomy over<br />
the landscape and natural resources of the Cordillera Huayhuash, whether it is for<br />
conservation or tourism purposes or for the extraction of mineral resources. Vocal,<br />
self-motivated familial networks organize to actively declare their positions while<br />
other networks seek to develop bridges and coordinate activities between multiple<br />
communities and exogenous institutions. The role of trusted external sympathetic<br />
actors to assist in the adjudication, translation of policy, and technological expertise<br />
is important to the adaptive capacity of the institutional structures involved in<br />
conservation and resource governance in the Cordillera Huayhuash.<br />
With local, regional, national, and international institutions and actors establishing<br />
coordination and information networks, the future of the Cordillera Huayhuash<br />
might be developed as part of both a horizontal and vertical conservation corridor,<br />
connecting to HNP (and potentially to other protected areas), and providing an<br />
altitudinal range within the protected area that would allow for internal ecological<br />
shifts. Local communities however are positioned as the ultimate decision-makers<br />
for the governance of this area as a conservation zone. This highland area facilitates<br />
an interconnection of the high <strong>Andean</strong> environment while directing management<br />
towards culturally selected agro-biodiversity and native endemic flora and fauna<br />
diversity along the altitudinal and ecological gradients. However, more research on<br />
land cover needs to be completed to obtain a better perspective of how variables of<br />
climate and biodiversity are changing in the tropical alpine environment. Highland<br />
areas that will be more available to tourism, road development, and disturbances<br />
are also susceptible to dynamic changes pending climate change. Therefore, better<br />
inventories and studies on the feedbacks between community decisions and<br />
land cover should be undertaken. Conservation mechanisms, such as offered by<br />
the designation of the Cordillera Huayhuash as a protected area, and the promotion<br />
of transparent, innovative formal and informal institutional linkages provide a<br />
supportive framework that could attend to climate change implications.<br />
3. <strong>Andean</strong> Land Use and Climate Change<br />
As noted in the case study, spatial heterogeneity characterizes the biophysical realm<br />
of mountainous environments (Troll, 1968; Gerrard, 1990; Körner, 1999). The tropical<br />
Andes have particularly long, complex environmental gradients associated with<br />
elevation because mountaintops can exceed 6000 m with adjacent valley bottoms<br />
3000–4000 m below. The outer flanks of the Andes connect contiguously to Pacificand<br />
Atlantic-drainage basins and descend to or near sea level. Intermontane valleys<br />
often have drier environments due to rain shadow effects, thus juxtapositioning varied<br />
humidity zones within steep elevational gradients. Underlying this topographic<br />
variation are substantial intraregional differences in bedrock, from limestones or<br />
andesites to a great variety of metamorphic rocks. The resulting soil differences can
KENNETH R. YOUNG AND JENNIFER K. LIPTON 75<br />
at times create local-to-regional variations in the color and physical and chemical<br />
characteristics of surface soils.<br />
The steep elevational gradients of the Andes create zonal changes in ecological<br />
conditions related to altitude. It is possible to distinguish plant formations (ie. grasslands,<br />
shrublands, forests) and vegetation types along these gradients. Grasslands<br />
and other low herbaceous plant communities are found above about 3600 m. A<br />
broad ecotonal area from that elevation down to as low as 1000 m alternates between<br />
forests and shrublands as predominant land cover types. The shrublands are<br />
found in semi-arid to seasonally dry areas, while forests are found in wetter areas<br />
or are restricted to protected ravines in drier places (Young and León, 2001). The<br />
distribution of biological diversity follows these trends (Gentry, 1995).<br />
Young (1998) evaluated some of the biogeographical consequences of the inherently<br />
complex environmental mosaics of <strong>Andean</strong> landscapes that are further<br />
subdivided and pushed toward coverage by nonforest vegetation due to long-term<br />
human influences. <strong>Andean</strong> forests are often small, surrounded by nonforest vegetation,<br />
exposed to altered physical conditions along forest margins (ie. edge effects),<br />
and isolated from similar forest tracts. This habitat fragmentation would exclude<br />
most forest interior species, for example certain kinds of raptors (Thiollay, 1996)<br />
and frogs (Toral et al., 2002). The forests and their biota may be exposed to chronic<br />
anthropogenic disturbances from fires, firewood harvesting, grazing, and cutting to<br />
establish agricultural plots. The plants and animals in the most heavily altered landscapes<br />
would seemingly need to be a robust subset of the original flora and fauna.<br />
Young (1998; also Young and Keating, 2001) listed some of the characteristics<br />
expected for the plants, including shade intolerance, ability to resprout following<br />
mechanical damage, and seed dispersal by small birds or wind. The animal types<br />
expected to be successful would be small-bodied birds that are granivores or frugivores,<br />
and inconspicuous, small mammals. Larger native animals either are more<br />
common in forest edge or shrub habitats, such as the white-tailed deer (Odocoileus<br />
virginianus), or are currently restricted to high mountain environments (<strong>Andean</strong><br />
huemul deer, vicuña), isolated shrublands (guanaco, Lama guanicoe), or distant<br />
forests (<strong>Andean</strong> bear).<br />
Given these difficulties, what can currently be said about likely climate change<br />
consequences? Warmer temperatures (Vuille and Bradley, 2000) would tend to<br />
shift plants, animals, and ecosystems upslope (e.g., Inouye et al., 2000; Enquist,<br />
2002), except when other environmental controls, such as local edaphic conditions<br />
(soil depth or drainage) or aspect-related differences (e.g., south-facing slopes,<br />
windward-facing slopes, etc.) prevent those shifts from occurring. Increased carbon<br />
dioxide levels may promote primary productivity of some ecosystems (Woodward,<br />
2002), but the effect appears likely to be dampened due to other limiting factors<br />
such as the availability of soil nutrients and the downward adjustment of number<br />
of stomata per unit area in developing leaves exposed to higher ambient carbon<br />
dioxide levels (Körner, 2000; Brownlee, 2001). In some cases, aquatic and wetland<br />
habitats may be expected to increase in size, particularly in the lakes and high
76 ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE<br />
elevations of retreating glaciers. However, with a potential for increased sediment<br />
load, these environments might undergo other permutations having a direct and<br />
generally negative impact on aquatic life.<br />
A valuable component of <strong>Andean</strong> biodiversity was actually created by the domestication<br />
of native plants and animals during the evolution of land-use systems<br />
(Piperno and Pearsall, 1998). Most of this additional diversity is genetic in nature,<br />
with new gene complexes maintained in domesticated varieties that are distinct<br />
from their wild relatives growing nearby in habitats adjacent to the agricultural<br />
fields. Farmers have developed different varieties with particular desired properties.<br />
This process appears to have reached its zenith in the potato cultivation of the<br />
central Andes. One field may have 40–60 potato variants—each with a common<br />
name and often each with a unique use, because of taste or texture, or because of<br />
the growth conditions required (Brush et al., 1995; Zimmerer, 1996; Ochoa, 1999;<br />
Hijmans and Spooner, 2001). This type of biodiversity can be kept intact through<br />
interventions such as cold storage gene banks, although at great expense. In situ<br />
approaches to maintaining genetic diversity are dependent on farmers who keep<br />
planting and utilizing their full range of crop varieties (e.g., Perales et al., 2003).<br />
This practice allows for further evolution and cultural selection of the genotypes. It<br />
requires either intact traditional systems of seed/tuber interchanges or some kind of<br />
subsidy. Some genetic biodiversity programs are beginning to contemplate climate<br />
change implications. All such efforts are useful because a wider base of genetic<br />
diversity is kept available for future generations.<br />
Yet another aspect involving climate change is the adaptive nature of many of<br />
the <strong>Andean</strong> land-use systems. As we reveal in the case study above, farmers in<br />
the Andes are attuned to biophysical patterns, processes, and the resulting spatial<br />
heterogeneity. Agro-pastoral livelihoods are realized in patchy, complex environments<br />
that in some land-poor communities may be sub-optimal for various kinds<br />
of production (Denevan, 2001; Zimmerer, 2003). <strong>Andean</strong> farmers lower risks and<br />
accommodate ecological variability by having diversified household economies,<br />
utilizing multiple fields, and selecting numerous seed and crop types. One household<br />
might graze livestock in upper-elevation communal land, grow potatoes in their<br />
fields at the highest elevations, maize and wheat at intermediate levels, and cassava<br />
in valley bottoms (Gade, 1975; Brush, 1976; Young, 1993). Still other fields are<br />
created out of wetlands that are modified with drainage canals and raised seedbeds<br />
(Zimmerer, 1991).<br />
Knowledge of how to manage useful plants and animals is embedded within the<br />
agricultural practices and traditions that are passed on to children in households<br />
(Young, 2002). The social networks established in youth are often the same that are<br />
implemented later in life to organize collective harvesting or tillage, to maintain<br />
irrigation systems, and to allocate land-use rights. Often these systems nestle hierarchically<br />
within municipal, district, and provincial governing frameworks. But<br />
this need not be the case if, for example, the people living in towns do not consider<br />
land-use decisions in outlying rural areas to be worthy of attention. Or there may
KENNETH R. YOUNG AND JENNIFER K. LIPTON 77<br />
be ethnic or age differences between rural inhabitants and those wielding political<br />
power that negate tendencies to collaborate. Also, as was noted in and around HNP,<br />
increased out-migration of young people seeking job opportunities and experience<br />
in urban centers can lead to younger generations not participating in household or<br />
community decision-making institutions and local political networks. This might<br />
be one of the inevitable consequences of urban areas having better opportunities<br />
for education, health care, and jobs.<br />
As was the situation in the case study, probably the biggest ongoing concern in<br />
much of the rural Andes is access to irrigation water. Often elaborate local systems<br />
are in place to assure some sort of equitable distribution of water in relation to need<br />
(Mitchell and Guillet, 1993; Gelles, 1999). For example, time allocation of waterflow<br />
to individual farm plots within an irrigation network, known as mitas de agua,<br />
can be controlled through community-based institutions responding to household<br />
demands and personal interests. This kind of social capital is also critical for extending<br />
planting seasons beyond the two to eight months a year when the rains fall and<br />
for good development of particular water-demanding crops. Farmers avoiding risk<br />
might determine which fields to cultivate depending upon household water rights,<br />
thereby providing a type of insurance in dry years. The retreat of <strong>Andean</strong> glaciers<br />
signals a negative glacial mass balance, which may be waning due to less precipitation,<br />
less snow accumulation in the form of glacial firn, more melt due to higher<br />
temperatures, more ablation, or a combination of these factors. Vuille et al. (2003)<br />
concluded, from an admittedly sparse regional data set, that glacial retreat in the<br />
tropical Andes is most likely due to warmer temperatures at high elevations and possibly<br />
higher relative humidity. This regional conclusion, however, does not exclude<br />
other changes from being important in particular areas: Kaser and colleagues (Kaser<br />
et al., 1990; Kaser, 1999; Kaser and Osmaston, 2002) have stressed the likelihood<br />
of slight decreases in precipitation being important for tropical snowline retreat.<br />
Over the next few decades, increased demand for water from growing population<br />
centers and industry will affect farmers in rural areas, adding to the complexity<br />
of making predictions. It is not yet clear how urbanization and globalization will<br />
affect land-use strategies and rural natural resource management. While larger and<br />
more accessible markets provide potential incentives to intensify agriculture and<br />
increase <strong>Andean</strong> production of commodities, those same national and transnational<br />
socioeconomic forces connect to other producers, perhaps in other countries, who<br />
may be able to produce the same product more economically or efficiently (e.g.,<br />
Bebbington, 2001).<br />
The community-based systems that regulate or control access to water also function<br />
in regards to other natural resources, including the use of lands for grazing or<br />
planting (Flores Ochoa, 1977; Guillet, 1981). Community formal and informal institutions<br />
are built upon pre-European and Spanish-derived land-use practices. The<br />
governance of community lands entails making decisions about the type of agricultural<br />
production, for example, whether it is for local consumption or for larger<br />
markets. Roads, particularly if paved, dramatically change options by transforming
78 ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE<br />
accessibility and cost-effort assessments by rural inhabitants selling excess production<br />
or even growing items specifically for urban markets, as seen in the example<br />
of Sr. Valverde’s land use decisions. In some cases, this transformation has<br />
shifted tenure to more privately owned lands. This shift was especially pervasive<br />
in the 1990s when neoliberal reforms became an international mode and expectation<br />
(Inter-American Development Bank, 1997; Thorp, 1998; Bury, 2004), with<br />
governments allowing for direct purchase of lands in places where once such transactions<br />
would not have occurred. Another new socioeconomic phenomenon is the<br />
increased importance of remittances from family members living in cities or other<br />
countries (e.g., Jokisch, 2002). This change can alter the intensity and nature of<br />
land use, especially if valuable lands are controlled by absentee owners.<br />
<strong>Andean</strong> lands have supported millions of people and vigorous societies throughout<br />
millennia. Local observations and perceptions of climate phenomenon are embedded<br />
in familial and community traditions and are an important aspect of technical<br />
knowledge. The farmers near Lake Titicaca are able to forecast ENSO (El Niño<br />
Southern Oscillation) events based on the visibility in the night sky of certain constellations<br />
(Orlove et al., 2000). Those events affect the high elevation lake basin<br />
with prolonged droughts, so several months warning helped local people make decisions<br />
on when and where to plant. Understanding these and other traditional and<br />
folk-based indicators of these climate variations and landscape-change perceptions,<br />
such as documented in the case study, will be important for studies of both <strong>Andean</strong><br />
land-use management and climate. Responses of greater exploitation would<br />
be expected from people who are observant of the rapidity of recovery of vegetation<br />
following a disturbance or the swiftness of repopulation of an area by some<br />
animal species affected by harvesting or other population alteration. This feedback<br />
could result in the masking of biotic responses to climate change. It might require<br />
field experiments or studies in natural areas kept free of land use to distinguish<br />
climate-caused responses from those same responses as mediated, lessened, or increased<br />
by concurrent human exploitation or manipulation. An important question<br />
is, Are the progressive or more extreme changes to be expected in the next several<br />
decades in the Andes within the adaptive capacity of these people and their<br />
land-use systems?<br />
4. <strong>Andean</strong> Rural Decision Making and Multi-Scale Governance<br />
A critical aspect for the analysis of adaptive capacity for environmental decision<br />
making is the assessment of the institutions that people are engaged in, with<br />
consideration to the historical, familial, and community contexts from which they<br />
operate (Blaikie and Brookfield, 1987; Robbins, 1998; Ostrom et al., 1999). As<br />
we showed in the case study and as reported from throughout the tropical Andes,<br />
many of the agro-pastoral activities and decisions are made and implemented on a<br />
household, extended family, and community level (Brush and Guillet, 1985; Mayer,
KENNETH R. YOUNG AND JENNIFER K. LIPTON 79<br />
2002). Transnational linkages and market forces are increasingly integrating once<br />
geographically and socially marginalized <strong>Andean</strong> communities into larger networks<br />
of formal and informal institutions (Price, 1994; Bebbington, 2001; Miles, 2004),<br />
thereby having an impact on household decisions regarding resource management.<br />
In an <strong>Andean</strong> household, distinct activities and livelihoods are dependent upon<br />
labor and priorities, evaluated in relation to season, access to different ecological<br />
zones, and the ease or cost of connections between rural and urban centers. This<br />
level of decision making in turn influences the types of participation in various<br />
institutions operating on other scales. Thus, all these scales must be considered<br />
when assessing the potential consequences of climate change to livelihoods and<br />
biodiversity.<br />
4.1. HOUSEHOLDS<br />
Many highland families engage in multiple livelihood strategies in order to satisfy<br />
and sustain basic needs. A household might be involved in field agriculture,<br />
raising livestock, or wage labor all at the same time. Kin associations, reciprocity,<br />
community duties and responsibilities all factor into one household’s daily and<br />
seasonal functions (e.g., Allen, 1988; Mayer, 2002). Scheduling tasks, measuring<br />
inputs, trade-offs, assessing risks and other opportunities are a few of the agricultural<br />
factors that concern households (Browman, 1987; Netting, 1993; Zimmerer,<br />
1996). Concurrently, agricultural decisions within a household can be based<br />
upon internal domestic factors such as age and gender, labor availability, priorities,<br />
and acceptance or avoidance of risk (Valdivia et al., 1996). Likewise external<br />
factors, including political stability, can be influential. Also a large degree of individuality<br />
exists, with some households specializing in certain tasks or products<br />
due to the experiences of household members. Individualism in communities can<br />
lead to increased pressure on agricultural land as people shorten fallow periods<br />
for maximum production and gradually depart from communal controls (Mayer,<br />
2002; Zimmerer, 2002). Economic choices required for agricultural intensification<br />
and the production of off-season crops can also compete with the labor demands<br />
necessary to maintain crop diversity and selection meant for subsistence.<br />
Under the influence of changing biophysical and environmental conditions, the<br />
information available to households about type and quantity of inputs will be a<br />
limiting factor.<br />
Pastoral work often involves multi-tasking and is frequently carried out by either<br />
gender depending upon labor availability (Brush, 1987). In a number of situations,<br />
women and children combine pastoralism with other responsibilities of child rearing,<br />
plant collection, knitting, and food preparation for home or market. For the<br />
agro-pastoralists living within the study area multi-tasking and livelihood diversification<br />
are important aspects of adaptive capacity because of the risk of dependency<br />
on any one resource. Livelihood diversification contributes to the resiliency of
80 ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE<br />
<strong>Andean</strong> households by creating access to potential subsidiary channels of income.<br />
Combining market oriented and subsistence agriculture, the export of meat and<br />
wool, renting of communal lands, economic assistance through familial bonds, or<br />
engaging in wage labor can be essential for household self-sufficiency. Diversifying<br />
can buffer financial shortfalls when unpredictable events or disturbances occur<br />
(Valdivia et al., 1996). Frequently, men will seek supplemental wages, working for<br />
larger farmsteads, on construction activities, or on corporate farms, and tend to their<br />
own family plots with available time.<br />
The ongoing transnational influences that are progressively integrating rural people<br />
into market-based economies will have a direct effect upon household resource<br />
management and technologies for agricultural production (Bebbington, 2001). Culturally<br />
created biological diversity, such as the numerous potato varieties, will likely<br />
only be maintained through households and other local social institutions that mediate<br />
and implement agricultural and pastoral land-use decisions. Farmers consciously<br />
select traditional crops, such as tubers and maize, to ensure a diverse and vigorous<br />
seed-pool that does not require the high inputs that commercial production<br />
of wheat, barley, oats, and potato varieties need (Zimmerer, 1996; Mayer, 2002).<br />
Thus, the question in reference to climate change is, Does the capacity for invention<br />
and adaptation still exist among these informal and local institutions? The stressors<br />
on household resource management certainly include educational and other attractions<br />
that pull youth away from pursuing rural livelihoods, plus the availability of<br />
imported food products, which compete with the sales of extra produce from <strong>Andean</strong><br />
households. We have talked with farmers who consciously maintain high crop<br />
diversity, partly out of tradition, partly from a sense of cultural or local pride. They<br />
mentioned neighbors that had switched to cash crops, such as alfalfa to be sold for<br />
fodder and barley for beer-making companies. Farmers also contrasted the dozens<br />
of potato varieties they may maintain on their lands with the actions of others who<br />
have converted to the much more limited set of improved varieties promoted by<br />
governmental offices.<br />
4.2. COMMUNITIES<br />
Community and inter-community relationships create and then retain agricultural<br />
biodiversity. However, these institutions are experiencing stresses and undergoing<br />
transformations. Although, in general, urbanization and globalization lessen agricultural<br />
biodiversity, several countervailing processes do occur. A resurgence of<br />
ethnic or regional pride in the Andes often includes assertions that native plants<br />
and animals should receive special attention. In areas of Peru and elsewhere, rural<br />
communities show great interest in participating in community seed exchanges<br />
and agricultural fairs, some of which is promoted by regional and international<br />
NGOs concerned with agro-biodiversity. Increased access in the difficult terrain<br />
of the Andes by an improved transportation network means that there is more
KENNETH R. YOUNG AND JENNIFER K. LIPTON 81<br />
potential for peoples of similar environments, separated by high mountain barriers,<br />
to come into personal contact. Improved roads and transportation networks allow<br />
for capital-intensive agricultural production in more competitive and interlinked<br />
markets (e.g., Sierra et al., 2003). Even extremely remote areas receive radio programs<br />
or satellite television broadcasts. Frequently, early morning programming<br />
includes information meant for agriculturalists.<br />
In an <strong>Andean</strong> community, social networks built upon familiarity, close contact,<br />
and trust, are indispensable and create social capital (Ostrom, 1990; Bebbington,<br />
1996, 1997). Networks of reciprocity and shared goals regarding resources are an<br />
integral aspect of <strong>Andean</strong> society (Mayer, 2002). Households that participate in<br />
informal or formal resource-based institutions may express their obligations to the<br />
entire community by helping to look after community resources. Of course, participation<br />
might not always be the case. Individuals and households may have personal<br />
and competing interests, such that personal or familial agendas can circumvent<br />
community directives (Orlove, 1977). The obligations intrinsic in informal institutions<br />
and peer groups may demand commitments away from the habitual tasks<br />
of the household. Disharmony or competition amongst members of the same community<br />
can occur and may affect communal land-use management or result in the<br />
disrespect of communal norms. Or other changes may erode traditional claims on<br />
individual actions.<br />
Participation in communal institutions governing land use, social activities, or<br />
labor needs is invaluable not only for the community, but also for the individual<br />
household (Mayer, 2002). In the tropical Andes, many informal institutions operating<br />
within a community consist of the personal arrangements and bonds that<br />
are formed through reciprocity, where unspoken agreements and contracts between<br />
people are fulfilled through mutual assistance. This was demonstrated in the case<br />
study by the high number of community organizations that individuals participated<br />
in. Collective action as mediated through community institutions may have<br />
in place mutual coercion mechanisms to assist with compliance (Robbins, 1998).<br />
In the Andes, commitment to communal activities, often in the form of labor exchanges<br />
known as minkas, collectively guarantees access to resources, participation<br />
in fiestas, and can be considered a form of social insurance (Mayer, 2002). Spending<br />
a day or two working in a communal labor effort known as a faena can ensure that<br />
access to water rights, land, or help with a harvest will be available to a household<br />
or extended family.<br />
Throughout the world, common property resources are frequently governed<br />
and managed by institutions, which increasingly are subject to extra-local<br />
dynamics (McCay and Acheson, 1987; Guillet, 1992; Robbins, 1998; Mayer, 2002;<br />
Zimmerer, 2002; Adams et al., 2003; Dietz et al., 2003; Giordano, 2003). Important<br />
<strong>Andean</strong> pastoral production zones, consisting of tropical alpine grasslands and<br />
grass-shrub communities, are often governed as communal grazing areas through<br />
multi- or intra-community-based management (Orlove and Godoy, 1986; Knapp,<br />
1991; Zimmerer, 2002). Many upper elevation communities that are land poor or
82 ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE<br />
do not have access to other ecological zones rely upon income-generating resource<br />
management strategies of essential products, such as meat, wool, and the sale of<br />
milk for cheese production. Formalized community institutions, such as resourceuser<br />
groups, act together in order to manage and coordinate resources within one<br />
community. Conducting inventories; making assessments; compiling complaints or<br />
concerns from other households; handling allotment, disbursement, and management<br />
of resources are some of the responsibilities involved in communal resource<br />
management.<br />
Participation by at least one member from each sector of a community in the<br />
resource-user group is important for facilitating the transfer of information and for<br />
maintaining access by that sector to resources in different ecological zones, provided<br />
the community has such access. For example, a pasture committee might include<br />
at least one individual from each community sector to assist with management of<br />
communal lands located in upper elevations. As many community institutions function<br />
out of a commitment to shared goals and values, they also are shaped by the<br />
cultural norms, information exchanges, and perceptions of the participating members<br />
(de Janvry et al., 1993; Adger, 2000). Through these community institutions,<br />
the knowledge of landscape change and placement of new rules for governance of<br />
resources could be encouraged and adapted if it is deemed important by community<br />
members. As we found in our case study, adaptive governance is strengthened by<br />
the ability to maintain a checks-and-balance system or transparency among local<br />
networks.<br />
Community social networks often operate to transmit news. They are usually<br />
the first informal institutions to disseminate information about market prices, opportunities<br />
or district-wide agendas (Rodríguez and Pascual, 2004). They are also<br />
the first to be contacted by district and regional governmental institutions for proposed<br />
work or resource-based projects. Increasingly, community organizations are<br />
actively seeking and negotiating relationships with other institutions at other scales<br />
for economic and technical advantages (Bebbington, 1997). This aspect of community<br />
governance is especially important in projects that involve a regionally<br />
oriented approach for addressing climate change issues. However, there may be a<br />
great deal of skepticism directed toward extra-local institutions, particularly if the<br />
extra-local interests are going to impinge upon current resources or livelihoods, as<br />
was exemplified for the lands within Huascaran National Park. In some situations<br />
where community institutions are opposed to regional or national projects, organized<br />
activism occurs, instigating strikes and general resistance (e.g. Healy, 1991).<br />
4.3. REGIONAL, NATIONAL, AND INTERNATIONAL<br />
Regional formalized institutions, both governmental and nongovernmental, that are<br />
focused on resources in the Andes must typically have community contacts and access<br />
to networks in order to successfully carry out projects and policies. Establishing
KENNETH R. YOUNG AND JENNIFER K. LIPTON 83<br />
linkages with community institutions and making strategic alliances are political<br />
processes that can strengthen the goals of a broad-based project (Agrawal, 1997;<br />
Healy, 2001). Depending upon their particular agendas, regional formalized institutions<br />
may sponsor educational and technical training for the betterment of<br />
production or for alternative forms of production. This training is often sought<br />
out by communities, as was the case for farmers seeking access to improved crop<br />
varieties in northern Peru. Some community institutions have intentionally positioned<br />
themselves to access national or international technical or financial resources<br />
(Bebbington and Perreault, 1999).<br />
An important part of the relationship between extra-local institutions and communities<br />
is the ability to maintain and follow through on commitments made. As<br />
regional programs seek to work on a larger scale, they tend to overextend resources,<br />
personnel, and time commitments. Unfortunately, our informants have commented<br />
on how this propensity for over-extension can lead to a lack of follow-through on<br />
proposals and a resultant waning of trust and interest in projects at the community<br />
level. These efforts can also be hampered when neighboring communities compete<br />
for limited project resources. In particular, during the 1990s, many governmental<br />
institutions, typically under funded and short-staffed, were besieged by neoliberal<br />
reforms that sought policies of privatization and natural resource extraction<br />
(Escobar, 1995; Stiglitz, 2002; Zimmerer, 2002). These reforms resulted in offices<br />
and personnel with inadequate resources and technologies for maintaining or<br />
carrying out projects.<br />
With the global phenomenon of climate change forcing local and regional<br />
changes, institutions of the tropical Andes would have advantages in becoming<br />
globally networked. Nested institutional relationships at the local, regional, national<br />
and international level will be necessary for creating, implementing, and monitoring<br />
climate change policies and projects. For example, regional institutions have<br />
benefited from connections with international institutions. Recently, committed individuals<br />
working in the upper and middle tiers of governmental programs have<br />
taken a more proactive approach to solidify international and national networks<br />
to achieve goals for both research and policy-making regarding climate change.<br />
In some cases in Peru, administrators have sought out linkages with foreign researchers<br />
and NGOs to bring foreign funding, skills, and global media attention<br />
to the condition of <strong>Andean</strong> glaciers with the intent of reinforcing and enhancing<br />
existing national institutional structures and infrastructure. One goal for these connections<br />
is to promote better coordination and directives regarding research and<br />
planning for global climate change in an international context. These new linkages<br />
could position local, regional, and national institutions to adequately prepare<br />
for water conservation, and hydroelectric demands and respond to natural hazard<br />
situations. Combined with grassroots support, flexibility will add to the decision<br />
making process.<br />
With democracy, national governmental institutions receive their mandates from<br />
the voting patterns of large urban populations, with elected and career administrators
84 ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE<br />
serving as mediators. The rights and needs of minorities, consisting of ethnic and<br />
often marginalized, dispersed rural inhabitants, have been historically neglected in<br />
Latin America (Maybury-Lewis, 2002). Policies and programs for climate change<br />
will need to rely upon the nested institutional information networks. However,<br />
these are often bureaucratically dominated by corporate or political interests. For<br />
example, in the study area and many other locales, resources such as minerals,<br />
water, and/or timber are often extracted by exogenous transnational institutions<br />
with powerful political connections. As a result, a spatial and socioeconomic disconnect<br />
from landscape changes occurring in the rural highlands may take place.<br />
The institutional governance that accompanies climate change phenomenon necessitates<br />
ongoing flows of information, institutional transparency, and cooperation<br />
between the many entities involved. Possibly, rural development banks could provide<br />
short-term loans and agricultural extension agents could facilitate suggestions<br />
for adaptations; neither system however, is well developed in the tropical <strong>Andean</strong><br />
countries.<br />
Less clear is how regional, national, and international institutions interface with<br />
processes affecting sustainability concerns. This lack of clarity is not only due to<br />
a paucity of relevant research, but is also a result of significant region-to-region<br />
differences in predominant biophysical and land-use systems. The people near<br />
Sajama National Park in northwest Bolivia utilize lands above 4200 m, so their<br />
needs must be met from livestock raising and trading for other staples. The farmers<br />
near Otavalo, Ecuador not only raise a wide variety of crops for sale in Quito,<br />
but are tied to international economic forces through commodity production of<br />
handicrafts and remittances from other countries (Korovkin, 1998; Bebbington,<br />
2000). The national institutions involved with farming systems embed regional<br />
disparities in their structures, and cohesive national priorities seldom endure as<br />
they are prone to reversals when new political parties take office. Even wellmeant<br />
international efforts may be carried out in ways that act to reduce local<br />
adaptive capacity.<br />
In addition to rural livelihoods, the institutions involved with the conservation<br />
of biological diversity need to be evaluated. These institutions include the protected<br />
areas systems of the <strong>Andean</strong> countries. They are especially weak in implementing<br />
policy and programs, not at the national and international levels, but at the local and<br />
regional levels (Young and Rodríguez, in press). There may be compelling global<br />
and national reasons to protect a particular place or species, but convincing local<br />
people to accept the risks or costs to do so is fraught with contradictions (Young,<br />
1997; Young and Zimmerer, 1998; Zerner, 2000; Terborgh et al., 2002). Sometimes<br />
the success or failure of a particular national park or nature reserve to conserve<br />
native ecosystems is due to the managerial, technical, and social capacity of the<br />
on-site park administration. If personnel are charismatic, local communities can be<br />
convinced to merge their goals with park objectives for mutual benefit. But past bad<br />
experiences, incompetent personnel, or some other historical or personal legacy can<br />
make this impossible.
KENNETH R. YOUNG AND JENNIFER K. LIPTON 85<br />
The dilemma for national and international institutions involved in biodiversity<br />
conservation in the <strong>Andean</strong> highlands is complicated by the fact that no<br />
protected area has been evaluated rigorously for climate change consequences.<br />
Thus, little scientific basis exists for taking a particular action, except for extrapolations<br />
of approaches from more general concerns (e.g., conservation corridors)<br />
or other geographical regions (Western and Wright, 1994; Soulé and Terborgh,<br />
1999). For example, most organized park-people programs in the tropical Andes<br />
are premised on possibilities of sustainable extraction of natural resources.<br />
Difficulties are numerous, mainly because sustainable extraction rates may be<br />
fundamentally unknowable if carrying capacities are not set by equilibrial ecological<br />
processes and if there are stochastic and/or progressive changes in physical<br />
environmental conditions (Reynolds et al., 2001). Philosophically, these conservation<br />
efforts do not include protection and management goals that cover the<br />
other non-economic values of biodiversity (Perlman and Adelson, 1997). One<br />
such value connects directly to climate change and is part of the founding legislation<br />
of all the nationally protected area systems of the Andes: those areas<br />
are to be used for scientific research to better understand the functioning of<br />
natural environments.<br />
Although conservation corridors that can connect together the parks and reserves<br />
of national and regional protected-area systems have been amply discussed from<br />
both theoretical and practical viewpoints (Soulé and Terborgh, 1999), their applications<br />
for climate change are less well developed. Many of the conservation corridor<br />
studies concentrate on the species level, focusing on an indicator species that would<br />
benefit from habitat conservation (Gutzwiller, 2002). We suggest that conservation<br />
corridors could potentially serve two different goals: connecting together similar<br />
environments across relatively large distances and providing conservation protection<br />
along steep environmental gradients, such as those associated with altitudinal<br />
change.<br />
The former are herein called horizontal conservation corridors and would potentially<br />
lessen the isolation of organisms and permit interchange of individuals and<br />
genes, both key conservation concerns (Frankham et al., 2002). The effective area of<br />
protected habitat is increased, although there are many real-world concerns of how<br />
wide these corridors could or should be, how restrictive their land use or tenure can or<br />
must be, if the terrain between protected areas is such that environmental conditions<br />
do not change enough to create pre-existing biogeographical barriers, and if species<br />
of concern will even move through them. Vertical conservation corridors, on the<br />
other hand, are already contained within many of the large national parks of the <strong>Andean</strong><br />
countries. As an example, Table 1 shows that all but two of Peru’s national parks<br />
include elevational gradients of more than 3500 m, effectively connecting together<br />
in one conservation unit the lowlands to the highlands. This is an ideal way to buffer<br />
for unpredictable climate change consequences. In mountainous environments,<br />
such as in the Andes, it is likely that environmental conditions will shift upslope,<br />
for example with warmer environments replacing those now found near snowline.
86 ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE<br />
High elevation ecosystems and species restricted to them may be lost from mountain<br />
ranges (Peters and Lovejoy, 1992). This would especially be the case for the<br />
nonglaciated cordilleras.<br />
Our suggested solution is to combine vertical and horizontal conservation corridors<br />
in national, regional, and continental planning. Currently, the national protected<br />
area system in Peru consists mostly of unconnected parks and reserves (Figure 1).<br />
The vertical corridors would connect disparate elevations and the horizontal corridors<br />
would provide additional habitat and connectivity among protected areas.<br />
As seen in the case of Peru (Table I), some of the other types of protected areas,<br />
for example the national reserves, are designed to feature one major environmental<br />
zone and so do not include much elevational or other variation (Rodríguez and<br />
Young, 2000). These areas would require both horizontal and vertical corridors to<br />
function effectively in the future.<br />
There are a number of international NGOs that are working to promote conservation<br />
corridors with the involvement of regional and national institutions. In one<br />
instance, Conservation International is organizing a series of activities in lands adjacent<br />
to formally protected areas in a plan meant to create the “Vilcabamba-Amboró<br />
Conservation Corridor” from southern Peru to central Bolivia on the eastern flanks<br />
of the Andes. For our case study, the Cordillera Huayhuash reserve would in effect<br />
form a conservation corridor with Huascaran National Park. In addition, corridortype<br />
areas might be implemented by enforcing pre-existing wildlife laws within<br />
their length and extent. For example, there are laws on the books in Peru that<br />
restrict hunting of deer and fishing of trout to certain seasons of the year, or that<br />
completely outlaw the killing of rare species. However, such laws are not effectively<br />
enforced. If they were to be applied in the long, but narrow areas that connect one<br />
conservation area to another, some conservation-corridor benefits would be gained<br />
without the need to create new legal mechanisms.<br />
We believe that the criteria suggested above for conservation corridors and<br />
for protected areas would build in enough connectivity and redundancy for most<br />
species. That said, we reiterate that the necessary research to classify the thousands<br />
of restricted-species of the Andes for their conservation risks is just beginning<br />
(Stattersfield et al., 1998; Valencia et al., 2000). In none of the recent studies was<br />
exposure to future climate change used as an evaluation criterion. We also feel that<br />
local perspectives and multi-scale institutional adaptations need to be incorporated<br />
into long term planning for the human and biophysical systems that will be affected<br />
by environmental shifts.<br />
5. An <strong>Andean</strong> Climate Research Agenda<br />
Much of the scientific research needed to address these concerns has yet to be done<br />
for the tropical Andes, although inspiration could be drawn from advances elsewhere<br />
(Mount, 1994; Jackson and Weng, 1999; Kappelle et al., 1999; Foster, 2001;
KENNETH R. YOUNG AND JENNIFER K. LIPTON 87<br />
TABLE I<br />
Nationally protected conservation areas of Peru, including national parks, reserves, and sanctuaries.<br />
Those areas with relatively large sizes (>100,000 ha) and large elevational ranges (>3000 m) already<br />
act as vertical conservation corridors, in the sense proposed here.<br />
Name Category Year Established Area (has) Elevational Range (m)<br />
Cutervo National Park 1961 2,500 2,350–3,350<br />
Tingo Maria National Park 1965 18,000 680<br />
Huascaran National Park 1975 340,000 2,400–6,768<br />
Cerros de Amotape National Park 1975 91,300 75–1550<br />
Rio Abiseo National Park 1983 274,520 350–4,350<br />
Yanachaga-Chemillen National Park 1986 122,000 250–3,700<br />
Bahuaja-Sonene National Park 2000 1,091,416 200–2450<br />
Cordillera Azul National Park 2001 1,353,190 150–2,320<br />
Manu National Park 1973 1,692,137 250–4,050<br />
Otishi National Park 2003 305,973 700–4,150<br />
Pampa Galeras National Reserve 1967 6,500 3,850–4,150<br />
Junin National Reserve 1974 53,000 4,008–4,125<br />
Paracas National Reserve 1975 335,000 9–786<br />
Lachay National Reserve 1977 5,070 100–750<br />
Titicaca National Reserve 1978 36,180 3810<br />
Salinas y Aguada Blanca National Reserve 1979 366,963 2,800–6,050<br />
Calipuy National Reserve 1981 64,000 400–4,000<br />
Pacaya Samiria National Reserve 1982 2,080,000 83–160<br />
Tambopata National Reserve 2000 274,690 200–400<br />
Allpahuayo-Mishana National Reserve 2004 58,070 104–185<br />
Huayllay National Sanctuary 1974 6,815 4,100–4,600<br />
Calipuy National Sanctuary 1981 4,500 400–4,000<br />
Lagunas de Mejia National Sanctuary 1984 690 0–50<br />
Ampay National Sanctuary 1987 3,635 2,780–5,235<br />
Manglares de Tumbes National Sanctuary 1988 2,972 0<br />
Tabaconas-Namballe National Sanctuary 1988 29,500 1,500–3,200<br />
Chacamarca Historical Sanctuary 1974 2500 4,112–4,438<br />
Pampa de Ayacucho Historical Sanctuary 1980 300 0<br />
Machupicchu Historical Sanctuary 1981 32592 1,800–6,250<br />
Bosque de Pomac Historical Sanctuary 2001 5887 100–150<br />
Laquipampa Reserved Zone 1982 11,347 200–2,550<br />
Pantanos de Villa Reserved Zone 1989 263 0–5<br />
Tumbes Reserved Zone 1994 75,102 0–900<br />
Algarrobal el Moro Reserved Zone 1995 321 20–50<br />
Chancaybanos Reserved Zone 1996 2,628 1,300–2,400<br />
Aymara Lupaca Reserved Zone 1996 300,000 3,825–4,500<br />
Gueppi Reserved Zone 1997 625,971 200–250<br />
Rio Rimac Reserved Zone 1998 28 km 220–1,000<br />
Santiago-Comaina Reserved Zone 2000 1,642,567 200–2,700<br />
Alto Purus Reserved Zone 2002 2,724,264 200–650<br />
Codillera de Colan Reserved Zone 2002 64,115 750–3,600<br />
Huayhuash Reserved Zone 2002 67,590 3,650–6,600
88 ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE<br />
Guisan and Theurillat, 2001; Walther et al., 2002; Malhi and Phillips, 2004; Thomas<br />
et al., 2004; Dockerty et al., 2005). For example, Walker and colleagues (Walker,<br />
2003; Walker et al., 2004) recently provided insights from household-level research<br />
in the Amazon that could also be adapted towards the <strong>Andean</strong> examples explored in<br />
this paper. They found that a behavioral model of the consequences of numerous individual<br />
household decisions in regard to land use could successfully reproduce the<br />
landscape transformations occurring during colonization and frontier expansion.<br />
<strong>Andean</strong> rural residents are making decisions in relation to shifting environmental<br />
conditions, to the lands and social capital available through community-level decisions,<br />
and to constraints imposed by market forces and governmental decisions<br />
(e.g., Swinton et al., 2003; Rodríguez and Pascual, 2004). Each household evaluates<br />
their vulnerability with respect to their goals and needs. While it is important to<br />
develop computerized models that can relate these factors to shifting land use and<br />
land cover, it is just as important for more empirical field work to be carried out to<br />
better characterize the range of adaptive practices and responses found along and<br />
across the <strong>Andean</strong> highlands (e.g., Vanacker et al., 2003).<br />
Murra (1975) and others (e.g., Stanish, 1992) pointed out that long-distance<br />
interchanges of products and information have anciently characterized how the<br />
Andes <strong>Mountain</strong>s were used by people, thus permitting existence in areas otherwise<br />
inhospitable for the production of certain necessities. Globalization now<br />
adds to those spatial linkages while accelerating rates of socioeconomic change,<br />
with implications for vulnerability to climate change (Adger, 1999; Metz, 2000;<br />
Griffin, 2003; Tanner, 2003; O’Brien et al., 2004; Young and Rodríguez, in press).<br />
Although the basics of how households are nested within increasingly complex<br />
networks from community to global levels are understood, the practical benefits<br />
of nurturing linkages that could add to resiliency have been little explored either<br />
conceptually or in terms of the place-to-place heterogeneity of <strong>Andean</strong> landscapes<br />
and livelihood modes. Comparisons with how change occurs in other mountainous<br />
regions would also provide insights (e.g., Bartlein et al., 1997; Boggs and<br />
Murphy, 1997; Still et al., 1999; Beniston, 2003; Dirnböck et al., 2003; Fagre<br />
et al., 2003; Halloy and Mark, 2003; Konvicka et al., 2003; Storch et al., 2003;<br />
Whitlock et al., 2003). In addition, the higher levels of social capital, such as<br />
traditionally found in the <strong>Andean</strong> land use systems and as still exists in rural<br />
Ancash, Peru, are known to promote climate resiliency elsewhere (Adger, 2003;<br />
Fraser et al., 2003).<br />
The Andes have experienced much climate change in the past (e.g., Clapperton,<br />
1993; Marchant et al., 2002; Abbott et al., 2003; Hansen et al., 2003), with current<br />
climatic envelopes only established in the last 3000 years, a long time for human<br />
societies, but very brief compared to the evolutionary trajectories that establish<br />
species adaptations (Davis and Shaw, 2001). Thus, many native species will have<br />
experienced past climate fluxes similar or greater than what will occur in the coming<br />
decades. It is human alteration of land-cover types and population densities of<br />
biota that will differ into the foreseeable future, creating novel stresses and land
KENNETH R. YOUNG AND JENNIFER K. LIPTON 89<br />
cover configurations never seen before (e.g., Pyke, 2004). Combining land-use and<br />
land-cover change studies with insights from rural livelihood research will help<br />
in further evaluations, including more integrated assessments (e.g., Hannah et al.,<br />
2002; Pielke et al., 2002). In fact, we predict that the land-use systems of the Andes<br />
will be found to contain redundancy and an ability to predict and accommodate<br />
changes in seasonality and climatic variables.<br />
Miles et al. (2004) recently used biogeographic simulations of 69 Amazonian<br />
plant species to predict dramatic future declines in population viability of almost<br />
half of the species. The tropical Andes cover a smaller geographical region than the<br />
Amazon, but have a similar amount of plant (Henderson et al., 1991) and mammal<br />
diversity (Mares, 1992). The modeling of potential future species distributions for<br />
the Andes would need to accommodate the much finer ecological mosaic found in<br />
the mountains, with biocomplexity augmented by the barriers to dispersal formed<br />
by high elevations and deep river valleys. Lindberg and Olesen (2001) showed<br />
that habitat loss would affect both a wild passion plant species and its specialized<br />
pollinating hummingbird. Davis et al. (1998) demonstrated in general the need to<br />
include the effect of climate change on species interactions and there are numerous<br />
ongoing attempts to model the likely distributions of species in relation to climatic<br />
envelopes (e.g., Peterson et al., 2001; Erasmus et al., 2002; Kadmon et al., 2003;<br />
Oberhauser and Peterson, 2003). Some aspects of ecosystem function may also be<br />
predicted based not on the occurrence of individual species, but on the relationship<br />
of physical environmental factors to vegetation height, biomass, and trophic organization<br />
(Chapin et al., 2000, 2001). The predicting of shifts in distributions will<br />
need to take these considerations into account (e.g., Bush, 2002; Téllez-Valdés and<br />
Dávila-Aranda, 2003; Cabeza et al., 2004; Mayle et al., 2004; Opdam and Wascher,<br />
2004), as will the assessments of biodiversity conservation areas (e.g., Harrison and<br />
Bruna, 1999; Scott et al., 2002; Aremteras et al., 2003; Cabeza and Moilanen, 2003;<br />
Araújo et al., 2004; Meir et al., 2004; Saxon et al., 2005). In the meanwhile, the<br />
establishment of vertical and horizontal conservation corridors provides a means<br />
to proceed that could yield other practical benefits, for example for the livelihoods<br />
of rural <strong>Andean</strong> people, if done appropriately. This land-use planning might permit<br />
climate change researchers to build in “degree of human usage” of landscapes<br />
as one of the variables they examine or control for, to compare more isolated<br />
sites with others that are more utilized. Field experiments of the sort that manipulate<br />
atmospheric composition and soil temperature also would be useful (e.g., de<br />
Valpine and Harte, 2001; Morgan et al., 2004), but do not appear to be ongoing in<br />
the study area.<br />
Research finding correlations between climate change and the fates of <strong>Andean</strong><br />
societies (e.g., Binford et al., 1997) sends a cautionary message ameliorated by<br />
long-term evidence of persistence despite climatic stresses (Dillehay and Kolata,<br />
2004; Janusek and Kolata, 2004). What are called “traditions” are in fact ways that<br />
information is culturally passed to future generations, sometimes with insights that<br />
can be applied elsewhere (e.g., Cash et al., 2003; Altieri, 2004; Stoorvogel et al.,
90 ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE<br />
2004). The means by which households utilize <strong>Andean</strong> landscapes, through environmental<br />
knowledge and social networks of hierarchical linkages and obligations,<br />
may embody transferable lessons.<br />
6. Conclusion<br />
Glaciers store water that fell as rain and snow years earlier. As such, they serve as<br />
buffers for this natural resource’s availability: melt water can be used for domestic,<br />
agricultural, or industrial purposes, even in times when rainfall is low or missing<br />
(Barry and Seimon, 2000). The people of the rural Andes who live below glaciated<br />
peaks are aware of the dangers and risks posed by steep slopes, tectonic movements,<br />
and possible catastrophic mass movements. If questioned, they will also likely<br />
indicate that they are aware that there are compensations, because the water can be<br />
used during dry periods for irrigation. Burger (1992) noted that the archaeological<br />
record from three to four thousand years ago indicates that the need for control and<br />
access to water was already apparent in settlement and architectural designs. Those<br />
highland slopes that are not overtopped by glaciers or which are too far for canals<br />
to be made are limited to rain-fed agriculture.<br />
Many of our field observations reported in the case study come from the<br />
Cordillera Blanca of Ancash, Peru, where the climate change phenomena of concern<br />
include reduced permanent ice and hence more erratic water supplies and possibly<br />
more hazardous conditions downhill and downstream. However, the Cordillera<br />
Negra lies just to the west (Figure 2) and has probably not had permanent ice since<br />
the last glacial period. The agricultural landscapes there are dry for more than half<br />
the year, rural populations are less dense, and it seems clear that decreased water<br />
availability will impact local people directly. This contrast is likely to be a crucial<br />
planning difference to include in institutional analyses: the relative buffering of the<br />
physical environment utilized by the social group of concern.<br />
Traditional ways of carrying out land use presumably include wisdom acquired<br />
from trial and error in the past. In practice, <strong>Andean</strong> land use is an agglomeration<br />
of traditions begun thousands of years ago, leavened by adaptations to new<br />
plants, animals, and agricultural products introduced from overseas, and then implemented<br />
by individuals drawing upon knowledge and influenced by needs from<br />
their households and communities. For example, total land-use options diversified<br />
with the introduction of additional plant and animal species from the Old World,<br />
with wheat, oats, and alfalfa integrated into systems based on tuber crops, maize,<br />
beans, and other <strong>Andean</strong> species (Gade, 1992). Most traditional <strong>Andean</strong> households<br />
raise native domesticated animals such as guinea pigs (Morales, 1999), and<br />
the camelids, llama and alpaca, are used especially in Peru and Bolivia for wool,<br />
meat, and cargo transport (Wheeler, 1995). The Old World contribution of useful<br />
animals has been extensive: most <strong>Andean</strong> landscapes are utilized in conjunction<br />
with pigs and poultry near households, and goats, sheep, cattle, and horses out
KENNETH R. YOUNG AND JENNIFER K. LIPTON 91<br />
across the landscape, using the shrublands, wetlands, and grasslands for grazing.<br />
We have been struck by the multiplicity of land-use strategies in our study area, as<br />
expressed by spatial and compositional differences within and among agricultural<br />
fields, and by the complex integration that goes on with the raising of a variety<br />
of domesticated animals. In many parts of the tropical Andes, adaptation to fairly<br />
dramatic shifts in the location of ecological zones for planting and grazing appears<br />
to work by switching the species used or at least their relative proportions.<br />
Programs to alleviate stresses originating from climate change should start from<br />
this premise and look for ways to maintain, encourage, or even spread through<br />
example local adaptations to other locales with similar biophysical parameters. It<br />
is not clear that this strategy is within the present-day capacity of most national<br />
agricultural and rural development institutions. Perhaps as important, there appear<br />
to be fundamental limitations on how responsive those national entities can be to<br />
local concerns. For that matter, there are aspects of <strong>Andean</strong> belief systems that<br />
are quite different in origin and orientation from those of many western cultures<br />
(Greenway, 1998).<br />
Native biodiversity in the spatially and temporally dynamic <strong>Andean</strong> landscapes<br />
also represent an object lesson for evaluating climate change adaptiveness. These<br />
plants and animals have been through past climate fluctuations and have survived.<br />
Current limitations on their distributions often appear to originate only in part from<br />
climatic or other biophysical controls; the other limitations originate with past and<br />
present human-caused and land-use-related alterations. Many <strong>Andean</strong> landscapes<br />
appear to be the result of ancient human settlements and land uses (Lumbreras,<br />
1974; Bruhns, 1994; Gade, 1999; Young and Keating, 2001), making them similar<br />
to those described in continental Europe (Ellenberg, 1979; Birks et al., 1988;<br />
Young, 1997). The biodiversity conservation institutions have not yet assimilated<br />
this distinction into practice in the Andes: most efforts have gone into naming<br />
large areas as national parks or reserves, while ignoring opportunities for ecological<br />
restoration in the remainder of the countries involved. Even more intractable<br />
has been the conservation of biodiversity that originates and is maintained by cultural<br />
practices associated with land use. Programs focused on species of concern,<br />
on landscapes with significant native vegetation, and on agricultural land races<br />
and breeds are all needed; climate change concerns should be part of the decision<br />
matrices used for setting goals and priorities (e.g., Balmford et al., 2005). Institutional<br />
support needs to be strengthened at local, national, and international levels<br />
(e.g., Strigl, 2003). The largest difficulty will be the need to proceed without clear<br />
scientific precedents or guidelines. However, this uncertainty is a part of all governance<br />
faced by climate change (e.g., O’Hare, 2000; Reilly et al., 2001; Lynch<br />
et al., 2003; Pearson and Dawson, 2003; Johnson and Gillingham, 2004; Mastrandrea<br />
and Schneider, 2004) and some solutions likely already exist among the<br />
responses of native plants and animals and within the dynamism of local land-use<br />
systems.
92 ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE<br />
Acknowledgments<br />
We are grateful to Paul Robbins and the Adaptive Research and Governance in<br />
Climate Change program of the Ohio <strong>State</strong> University for the invitation to participate<br />
in the conference that led to the presentation of this paper. Blanca León<br />
and Carol Squires cheerfully helped with the manuscript. K. Young most recently<br />
received travel and research assistance from a Mellon Foundation faculty grant for<br />
research through the University of Texas at Austin’s Population Research Center. J.<br />
Lipton’s fieldwork in Peru was made possible through a University of Texas at<br />
Austin Thematic Fellowship, a David Boren fellowship, a National Science Foundation<br />
Dissertation Improvement Grant (NSF #0117806), and a Mellon Foundation<br />
Summer Research Award. Sincere gratitude is extended to people of the communities<br />
of Ancash who participated in this study. In addition, a profound thank you<br />
to the many individuals who assisted, encouraged, and informed throughout the<br />
duration of the project, including: Hector Abignal, Roberto Arevalo, Alton Byers,<br />
Pedro Camacho, Asunción Cano, Juan Carlos Castro, Jose Carrasco, Lorenzo<br />
Champa, Maria Victoria Chavez, Doña Coti, Hildegardo Cordova, Brandie Fariss,<br />
Jesus Gomez, Oswaldo Gonzáles de Paz, Blanca León, Carlos Meza, Nelson Santillain,<br />
Karen Price, Jorge Recharte, Hugo Romero, Vidal Rondan, Pablo Tadeo,<br />
Willy Tamayo, Mirriam Torres, Felix Valverde, Selwyn Valverde, Mario Villanueva,<br />
Marco Zapata.<br />
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Agricul. Human Values 20, 107–123.<br />
(Received 25 May 2004; accepted in final form 9 November 2005)
2<br />
Adaptive Management for Biodiversity Conservation<br />
under Climate Change – a Tropical <strong>Andean</strong><br />
Perspective<br />
David G. Hole, Kenneth R. Young, Anton Seimon, Carla Gomez<br />
Wichtendahl, Dirk Hoffmann, Klaus Schutze Paez, Silvia Sanchez,<br />
Douglas Muchoney, H. Ricardo Grau, and Edson Ramirez<br />
The tropical Andes are a globally significant region for biodiversity (Mittermeier et al. 2004).<br />
Dramatic environmental heterogeneity across the region including steep gradients in elevation<br />
and humidity, and complex mosaics of bedrocks and soils (Young, Chapter 8, this volume),<br />
together with the wide range of historical variability in <strong>Andean</strong> climates (Chapter 5, this<br />
volume), have helped shape this remarkable biological diversity (e.g., Trenel et al. 2008;<br />
Antonelli et al. 2009; Guarnizo et al. 2009). These same processes have also shaped the human<br />
context and provided natural resources that now sustain the wellbeing of millions of people,<br />
including lands for farming and grazing, water for households, irrigation and industries, and<br />
space for settlements. The region is one of the key places in the world for the development of<br />
early human societies, from organized settlements, to irrigated agriculture and the domestication<br />
of plant and animal species (Denevan 2001). Hence, it now contains large expanses of humandominated<br />
landscapes, from highly urbanized centers to more rural areas, where native forests<br />
have been replaced by agriculture and non-native tree plantations. Even the dry environments<br />
and high elevation sites are often used for extensive grazing of livestock. This leaves relatively<br />
few areas without a human presence, principal exceptions being the cool, moist cloud forests and<br />
the very humid paramos on the high mountains of the northern Andes. As a result of these<br />
historical and contemporary land-use patterns, there have long been tensions among the needs for<br />
conservation and protection of natural biodiversity, versus those for economic development and<br />
the reduction of social inequalities (Terborgh 1999). These tensions substantially increase the<br />
complexities of conservation planning in the region.<br />
Historically, the rate of change in the land cover of tropical landscapes is unlikely to have<br />
occurred as rapidly as it has in the last 50 years (Young 2007). Deforestation and conversion of<br />
land has led to an unprecedented loss of natural habitats in recent decades, with profound<br />
ramifications for the continued functioning of entire ecosystems (MEA 2005). Ongoing and<br />
projected climate change adds a substantial new component to this mix. Dramatic changes to<br />
19
oth biotic and abiotic systems and processes are already being seen across the tropical Andes,<br />
with glacial ice diminishing and upward biotic range extensions occuring even into high alpine<br />
areas (Seimon et al. 2007), with local people already altering their land uses in response (Postigo<br />
et al. 2008; Young 2008). Such changes are having profound impacts on species’ phenologies,<br />
distributions and abundance (Parmesan 2006) that will increase in magnitude in the future. Of<br />
particular conservation concern are the likely changes in representation and abundance of species<br />
within existing protected areas and across networks (Araujo et al. 2004; Hole et al. 2009), as well<br />
as the high likelihood of profound changes in the location and continued functioning of many<br />
<strong>Andean</strong> ecosystems (Anderson et al. Chapter 1, this volume). Indeed, such changes are likely to<br />
result in the formation of ‘no-analog’ communities (i.e. species assemblages for which there are<br />
no present-day examples) (Williams and Jackson 2007). Given the projected pace and likely<br />
consequences of climate change, magnified as they are in regions such as the high Andes<br />
(Bradley et al. 2006; IPCC 2007), it is critical that we adapt conservation management strategies<br />
in an effort to maintain their effectiveness under climate change. Without such effort, the region<br />
risks losing substantial components of its biodiversity (Larsen et al. Chapter 3, this volume), loss<br />
of key ecological processes (Aguirre et al. Chapter 4, this volume) and disruption of its<br />
ecosystems and consequent reduction or loss of the services they provide (Anderson et al.<br />
Chapter 1, this volume).<br />
In this chapter, we will focus on the conservation spotlight on adaptive management. It is<br />
not intended to be exhaustive in its coverage - the topics included are broad and need<br />
consideration in greater detail. Instead, we begin the process of identifying the range of risks and<br />
opportunities for biodiversity conservation and adaptive management presented by climate<br />
change within the unique context of the tropical <strong>Andean</strong> region. We highlight some of the<br />
principal tools available for assessing the vulnerability of biodiversity and ecosystems, and<br />
describe a range of conservation and management options that might be selected, based on the<br />
degree of manipulation and use required in order to maintain human wellbeing. In some cases,<br />
strict protection of very fragile ecosystems and endangered wild species is likely to be needed. In<br />
other cases, a mix of conservation through protected area systems and integrated planning for<br />
sustainable land use will likely be more appropriate. We then look briefly at options for<br />
monitoring climate change impacts and the effectiveness of management actions, before<br />
highlighting the opportunities (however limited) that climate change may bring for conservation.<br />
Finally, we identify critical institutional capacity needs within the region that are urgently<br />
required in order to effectively, efficiently, and equitably enable adaptation to the profound<br />
challenges posed by climate change.<br />
Current Status of <strong>Andean</strong> Biodiversity Conservation<br />
Protected areas are the single most important tool for biodiversity conservation in the tropical<br />
Andes region and have seen a substantial increase in number and area covered over the past 15<br />
years (Hoffmann et al. Chapter 22, this volume). Currently, around 15% of the four <strong>Andean</strong><br />
nations' land area is under national protected area status. While designation of protected areas<br />
has generally been based on biodiversity targets, it has not necessarily resulted in the<br />
representation of the most biologically pristine or valuable areas within priority ecosystems.<br />
More recently, protected areas have in many cases been created simply on the basis of sociopolitical<br />
opportunity.<br />
20
Even though robust assessments of the representativeness of the different protected area systems<br />
have not been carried out in a systematic manner, around 70-80% of species are likely to be<br />
represented within national protected areas (excluding municipal and departmental level<br />
protected areas, indigenous and community conservation areas, and indigenous communal<br />
lands). However, representation is biased towards lowlands and foothills, and little attention has<br />
been paid to ecological processes, especially in western regions.<br />
Capacity and data limitations mean that potential gaps in the network under climate<br />
change are largely unknown. However, there is now a push to integrate the large number of<br />
additional conservation areas managed at local and regional levels, into the National Protected<br />
Area Systems (Hoffmann 2009; Hoffmann et al. Chapter 22, this volume), in some cases led by<br />
municipal governments, and in others by native peoples, which could play a vital role in adapting<br />
national biodiversity conservation efforts to the challenges of climate change. There are also<br />
efforts under way to define national and regional conservation corridors that serve to link<br />
protected areas (e.g., Vilcanota-Amboró Corridor in Bolivia and Peru; three altitudinal corridors<br />
on the Eastern slopes in Colombia). Only in Colombia, however, has climate change recently<br />
been incorporated as an explicit component of the conservation planning process behind these<br />
efforts (see Appendix 2.1 and Hoffmann et al. Chapter 22, this volume, for further details).<br />
Hence, substantial basic research, including gathering of baseline data, as well as modelling of<br />
potential future shifts in species distributions and consequent changes in the provision of<br />
ecosystem services, is a critical priority for the tropical Andes region.<br />
Adaptive Management and the Identification of Future Vulnerabilities and<br />
Opportunities<br />
If we are to be proactive in addressing climate change, the identification of likely vulnerabilities<br />
and evaluation of possible adaptation responses, as well as the identification of potential<br />
opportunities, is paramount. Proactive strategies are likely to prove both more cost-effective<br />
(Hannah et al. 2007) and ethically responsible - in terms of preventing or ameliorating some of<br />
the worst potential impacts of climate change (Adger et al. 2009). However, given the magnitude<br />
of uncertainty in projections of climate change and in species, ecosystems and human responses,<br />
conservation planning must be set in the context of a range of potential future scenarios. Such an<br />
approach is not an excuse for inaction, but a call for adaptive management.<br />
Adaptive management is an iterative process of optimal decision making in the face of<br />
uncertainty, that attempts to reduce that uncertainty over time by system-level monitoring (see<br />
Sutherland 2006 for more details). Broadly speaking, such an approach has five stages (Figure<br />
2.1): 1) define plausible future scenarios and set conservation targets within this plausible range;<br />
2) perform conservation actions; 3) actions will lead to new behaviour within the system; 4)<br />
monitor to detect changes in the system; 5) analyze impacts of conservation actions and adjust<br />
initial targets accordingly. The cycle is then repeated.<br />
However, the high degree of historical and contemporary variability in <strong>Andean</strong> climate<br />
presents a substantial challenge to the identification of future scenario’s (Figure 2.1, Stage 1) in<br />
relation to climate change impacts on species, processes and ecosystems. For example, for much<br />
of the high <strong>Andean</strong> region above 3000 m, climatological data indicates that inter-annual thermal<br />
variability is regionally synchronous and largely controlled by the phases of the El Niño<br />
Southern Oscillation (ENSO), whereas the precipitation pattern varies spatially. At Cusco in<br />
21
Figure 2.1. Simple schematic of the five stages of the adaptive management process: 1) Define plausible future<br />
scenarios based on modelling and/or expert opinion and set conservation targets within this plausible range; 2)<br />
Perform conservation actions; 3) Actions will lead to new behaviour within the system, which will also be subject to<br />
influence by multiple external factors; 4) Monitor to detect changes in the behaviour of the system, as well as the<br />
influence of external factors, including measurement of the direct and indirect costs of management actions, both<br />
positive (e.g. rehabilitation of ecosystem services) and negative (e.g. opportunity cost of foregone agricultural<br />
production); 5) Feed these data into an analysis of the impacts of the conservation actions, and adjust the initial<br />
models/scenario’s and targets accordingly. This cycle is then repeated at appropriate time intervals.<br />
southern Peru, the inter-annual range of variation in daily maximum temperature over the<br />
summer growing season has been as much as 3.8 0 C (from +2.5 0 C accompanying a strong El<br />
Niño event in 1983, to -1.3 0 C under La Niña conditions in 1984). Historically, such a range of<br />
variability is likely the norm, although glaciological evidence suggests downward shifts in<br />
22
aseline mean temperature followed by a rebound to present levels probably occurred during the<br />
Little Ice Age (1500-1900 AD).<br />
Such natural climatic variability creates two challenges. Firstly, it translates into greater<br />
uncertainty in projections of future climatic change in the region, particularly at the relatively<br />
fine scales required for most spatial planning needs (Vuille et al. 2008). Secondly, it has shaped<br />
the evolutionary environment of regional biodiversity, potentially enhancing the resilience of<br />
species and ecosystems to sequential climatic extremes. Moreover, the amplitude of change of<br />
such short term climatic shocks (i.e. 3.8 0 C) exceeds the expected net thermal increase projected<br />
for the end of the 21st century under all but the most extreme emissions scenarios depicted by<br />
climate models for the Andes. Hence, there is a risk that some assessments could overestimate<br />
the impacts of climate change, projecting extinction in regions where a species or component<br />
populations are, at least potentially, pre-adapted. Perhaps more pertinent, however, is the<br />
capacity of individual species and ecological systems to adapt to a shifting thermal baseline that<br />
increasingly biases the distribution towards higher temperatures likely to surpass historical<br />
experience. Hence, the <strong>Andean</strong> context highlights a key issue in the development of scenarios of<br />
potential climate change impacts: what is the level of acceptable uncertainty? Practically<br />
however, when considering biodiversity targets, such uncertainty necessitates the use of multiple,<br />
but necessarily limited data sources, and therefore a judicious assessment of vulnerability.<br />
Assessing Vulnerability<br />
Direct Impacts<br />
Broadly speaking, the vulnerability of a species to climate change is a product of its<br />
susceptibility (defined by its intrinsic biological traits), its exposure (does it occur in a region of<br />
high climatic change?) and its adaptive capacity (can it adapt to climatic change?) (Figure 2.2).<br />
The vulnerability of an ecosystem can then be defined by the likely complex interactions and<br />
synergies between the relative vulnerabilities of its component species and proximate abiotic<br />
processes (see Chapter 4 for a discussion of the complexity of the interactions).<br />
Figure 2.2. Schematic representation of a species vulnerability to climate change, where each component varies<br />
from ‘low’ to ‘high’ according to the colour gradient, such that ‘X’ represents greatest vulnerability (i.e., the<br />
intersection of the three components – high susceptibility, high exposure and low adaptive capacity)<br />
23
These three components can be estimated using a variety of data sources and<br />
methodologies requiring varying degrees of technical capacity, input data quality and quantity,<br />
ability to provide robust future projections, definition of operational scale, and – critically – the<br />
associated uncertainties (Table 2.1). The simplest approach is to identify those biological traits of<br />
individual species (or across a taxon) that, based on expert opinion, are likely to predispose a<br />
species to being susceptible to climate change (Foden et al. 2009). Such traits might include a<br />
narrow altitudinal range at a high elevation, a high degree of habitat specialization, or a<br />
dependency on only a few prey or host species. Similarly, a species’ adaptive capacity might be<br />
deemed limited if it is a poor disperser, or if its genetic diversity is low. Exposure can then be<br />
estimated based on, for example, its thermal tolerance (Jiguet et al. 2006) in comparison to<br />
projected climatic anomalies across its area of occupancy. Such an approach has many<br />
advantages – for example, it relates directly to a specie's ecology; it avoids the need to develop a<br />
more complex model of the relationship between climate and species distribution; and it is data<br />
‘light’ in that it can be applied to a wide range of species and taxa. Disadvantages are that it<br />
provides limited information on the likely future spatial distribution of biodiversity that is critical<br />
for conservation planning and interactions between components of vulnerability may be missed.<br />
Table 2.1. Examples of the methods currently available for assessing vulnerability and<br />
identifying future scenarios of biodiversity pattern.<br />
Method Description Identifies Example Reference<br />
Trait-based Expert derived identification of Susceptibility; Adaptive (Foden et al. 2009)<br />
assessments broad life-history characteristics<br />
that predispose susceptibility<br />
capacity<br />
Shifts in climatic Spatial representation of shifts Exposure; Refugia (Ohlemuller et al. 2006;<br />
parameters in climatic parameters derived<br />
from GCM or RCM outputs<br />
Williams et al. 2007)<br />
Species distribution Modelled statistical association Susceptibility via e.g. present (Pearson and Dawson<br />
models (SDMs) between a species present-day and future range overlap or 2003; Hole et al. 2009)<br />
distribution and current climate change in future range extent;<br />
– can then project relationship Exposure; Spatially explicit<br />
onto future climates (e.g.<br />
Maxent; Generalized Additive<br />
Models; Boosted-Regression<br />
Trees)<br />
projections<br />
Dynamic [global] Process based models that Susceptibility of individual (Scott et al. 2002;<br />
vegetation models simulate shifts in, and dynamics modelled plant species; Hannah et al. 2008)<br />
(D[G]VMs) of, vegetation, in response to Susceptibility of other species<br />
climate and other drivers (e.g. via spatially explicit<br />
LPJ; VECODE; BIOME) projections of future presence<br />
of suitable habitat<br />
Population viability Data-intensive, species-specific Vulnerability (Brito and Figueiredo<br />
analysis (PVA) model that determines viability<br />
of one or more populations over<br />
time, based on internal and<br />
external drivers of population<br />
dynamics<br />
2003; Vargas et al. 2007)<br />
24
Towards the other extreme of the data requirement spectrum is species distribution<br />
modelling (SDM) (Graham et al. Chapter 21, this volume; Pearson and Dawson 2003). Given<br />
adequate and robust gridded data on the presence and absence of a species across its entire range,<br />
or sufficient accurate and fine-scale presence localities across an environmentally representative<br />
sample of its range, together with technical capacity in statistical analysis and GIS, it is now<br />
relatively easy to generate present and future projections of individual species distributions at<br />
local, regional or continental scales (although interpretation of model outputs still requires<br />
ecological expertise). Advantages include quantified estimates of sensitivity (e.g.,<br />
reduction/increase in future range extent), and spatially explicit projections of species’ potential<br />
future distributions – a product that is unavailable by any other means. Disadvantages include the<br />
wide-range of assumptions that such models rely on (see Graham et al. Chapter 21, this volume)<br />
and the consequent requirement for judicious interpretation. Recent advances in the development<br />
of the next generation of SDMs seek to overcome many of these disadvantages and assumptions<br />
(e.g., Keith et al. 2008), by incorporating habitat requirements, population dynamics and<br />
dispersal into the bioclimatic modelling framework. On the downside, such models will require a<br />
vastly improved understanding of a specie's ecology. The pros and cons inherent across these<br />
methodologies should therefore be carefully considered when applying analyses to inform the<br />
adaptive management process.<br />
Indirect Impacts<br />
An understanding of the direct impacts of climate change on biodiversity is beginning to emerge<br />
in the <strong>Andean</strong> region, as is an awareness of the diversity and magnitude of the responses by<br />
people whose lives and livelihoods are altered by climate change (Young and Lipton 2006).<br />
However almost no attention has been paid to the impacts that human responses to climate<br />
change will have upon biodiversity. Yet these ‘indirect’ impacts have the potential to be of a<br />
magnitude and scope that will rival or exceed the direct impacts. Here we identify several areas<br />
in which the interactions between people, biodiversity and climate change in the tropical Andes<br />
have the potential to be critical and which urgently warrant further research and consideration in<br />
the adaptive management process.<br />
Food: Climate change will have profound impacts on our ability to grow food. Regions currently<br />
suitable for a particular crop may become unsuitable, as climate change pushes local<br />
microclimates beyond the crop's temperature or water tolerance (Lobell et al. 2008). Unless new<br />
varietals can be developed, cropping practices adapted, or alternative crops identified, farmers<br />
may be forced to migrate to new areas (Warner et al. 2009), putting increased pressure on natural<br />
habitats or urban zones. Of course the converse may also be true, with changes in climate<br />
generating increases in yield and allowing some crops to be grown in areas that were previously<br />
unsuitable. In Peru’s Cordillera Vilcanota for example, cultivation practices on highland slopes<br />
have moved progressively higher in recent decades as moderating temperatures have expanded<br />
the domain of a viable growing season upward. Studies at Nunoa performed in 1964-65<br />
identified a relatively frost-free 5-month period representing a suitable growing season at<br />
4,236m, close to the highest tilled fields at that time. A nearby climate station meanwhile, at<br />
4,543m, recorded frosts throughout the year (Winterhalder and Thomas 1978). By 2003,<br />
however, potato cultivation in the nearby Pitumarca valley had moved to 4,550m around several<br />
25
communities. The warming regional climate has thus been accompanied by a rise in the limit of<br />
cultivation by as much as 300m over the 38 year period (Halloy et al. 2005; Figure 2.3). Further<br />
upward shifts in cultivation may put still largely pristine high elevation habitats under pressure.<br />
In the Cordillera Apolobamba in Bolivia, the upward shift in agricultural activities has displaced<br />
livestock (camélidos) to even greater elevations, with consequent impacts on high altitude<br />
ecosystems in the region (Schulte 1996). Where higher elevations have limited area, the same<br />
number of animals is often packed into a smaller area resulting in increased erosion. Yields of<br />
cash-crops crucial to livelihoods in the region, such as coffee, will also respond to changes in<br />
temperature, as projected for other regions of the America’s (e.g., Mexico; Schroth et al. 2009).<br />
Increased pressures on upslope protected areas, as cost-effective yields of Coffea arabica<br />
become increasingly limited to higher elevations, are a likely consequence.<br />
Water: Deglaciation caused by climate change over the past several decades, has led to a<br />
significant reduction in dry season flows in glacier-fed rivers (Francou et al. 2005; Vergara et al.<br />
2007). This has necessitated the creation of upstream reservoir capacity to provide a buffer to<br />
ensure sufficient flow for hydropower generation and agricultural needs downstream. For<br />
example, the largest high-alpine lake in the Andes, Peru’s 32 km 2 Laguna Sibinacocha at 4,900<br />
m, which provides habitat for thousands of flamingos and other waterfowl, was artificially<br />
enlarged by a dam in the mid-1990s to augment diminishing dry season flow far downstream at<br />
the Machu Picchu hydroelectric generation plant on the Vilcanota-Urubamba river (Seimon<br />
2001). Anecdotal evidence suggests that avian diversity and abundance on the lake may have<br />
decreased as a result, due to inundation of traditional nesting areas (see Anderson et al. Chapter<br />
1, this volume for further examples).<br />
Health: A major potential impact of climate change on human health is the change in the<br />
incidence and geographic range of vector-borne diseases (Martens 1998; Patz et al. 2002).<br />
Changes in ambient temperatures and rainfall have affected the seasonality, duration of<br />
outbreaks and morbidity profiles of both malaria and dengue fever, diseases whose transmission,<br />
distribution and seasonality are linked to climatic conditions (Poveda et al. 2001; Ruiz et al.<br />
2006). Projected increases in temperature under climate change may now drive these diseases<br />
into formerly mosquito-free territories. As in the past, communities may choose to seek out<br />
malarial-free areas (Gade 1999) beyond the expanding disease front, putting further pressure on<br />
natural habitats within these regions.<br />
Energy: Biofuels have been proposed as one method for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.<br />
Whether or not biofuels actually offer carbon savings depends on how they are produced. In<br />
many regions the production of food crop-based biofuels is leading to the conversion of<br />
rainforests, savannas, peatlands, grasslands and other natural ecosystems to agriculture,<br />
generating a substantial “carbon debt” (Fargione et al. 2008), while simultaneously causing<br />
widespread degradation of natural ecosystems. In the <strong>Andean</strong> region, it is unclear as yet whether<br />
the increase in biofuel demand will have substantial negative impacts on <strong>Andean</strong> biodiversity as<br />
a result of deforestation and other legal, illegal or politically motivated land use changes.<br />
Although laws have been passed recently in Bolivia for example, encouraging biofuel production<br />
for national consumption, the government has so far opposed producing biofuels for exports,<br />
because of the potentially negative impacts on food security and on small farmers.<br />
26
Hydroelectric power generation meanwhile is affected by changes in climate and stream<br />
flows. In Peru, the prospect of decreasing dry season flows from glacier-fed rivers has motivated<br />
an adaptive electricity generation strategy shifting away from hydropower, which formerly<br />
contributed 90% of the country’s power supply, to greenhouse gas producing gas/thermoelectric<br />
power generation facilities (Vergara et al. 2007).<br />
Cordillera Vilcanota, Peru<br />
Frost frequency vs. elevation(1964-65)<br />
monthly percentage of days < 0°C<br />
4,236m 4,543m<br />
<br />
season<br />
---------- ~4,550 m<br />
Pitumarca valley,<br />
2003<br />
Figure 2.3. Rising altitudinal limit to cultivation in the Andes associated with regional warming.<br />
Photograph © Anton Seimon 2003<br />
27
Human migration: Large-scale displacements of people resulting from climate change is already<br />
a reality, with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in 2008 arguing for the first<br />
time that the increase in displaced people globally was at least partly attributable to climate<br />
change-related conflict. However, even in the absence of conflict, this trend is likely to increase<br />
substantially in synergy with many of the drivers outlined above, generating new, or modifying<br />
existing patterns. Rural-urban migration is already significant in the Andes, and will be further<br />
enhanced by the increased unpredictability of agricultural production. While this process may<br />
result in socioeconomic improvements, as well as more efficient use of natural resources, it is<br />
also likely to result in increased human pressure in urban areas, local increases in water demand<br />
and water diversion, with consequent impacts on freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems.<br />
Conversely, the reduction in the human footprint in rural areas could lead to a beneficial indirect<br />
impact on biodiversity (Grau et al. 2003; Grau and Aide, 2007), assuming the land has not been<br />
badly degraded and is allowed, or actively encouraged to revert to a natural state.<br />
Adaptive Management Responses<br />
Mitigating identified vulnerabilities to climate change in the tropical <strong>Andean</strong> region will be<br />
challenging, given the complex patterns and associated interactions of biodiversity and human<br />
land use. Here we highlight key adaptive management responses (see Heller and Zavaleta 2009<br />
for a more comprehensive review), noting that these responses require coordination and<br />
integration at local, national and regional levels (Figure 2.4) if they are to be effective. Although<br />
here we break these responses down into species-, site- and landscape-level approaches, such<br />
distinctions must become necessarily blurred when developing a holistic adaptation strategy<br />
under climate change.<br />
Regional planning process<br />
A systematic conservation planning process (Margules and Pressey 2000) for the region is a<br />
critical research and policy requirement for the near term. While the potential foundations for<br />
such a process exist (e.g., the Estrategia Regional de Biodiversidad para los Paises del Tropico<br />
Andino), climate change is at best a marginal component in such plans. Any process must also be<br />
cognizant of the specific national and local contexts in which biodiversity conservation will be<br />
carried out.<br />
Species-level approaches<br />
Removing current stresses and threats to a vulnerable species or ecosystem (e.g., hunting<br />
pressure, habitat fragmentation) requires minimal knowledge of potential climate change<br />
impacts, yet it is a practical way to increase resilience since a system facing multiple stressors is<br />
less able to cope with additional pressures from climate change. The <strong>Andean</strong> bear (Tremarctos<br />
ornatus) is one example that would likely benefit from such an approach, given its large homerange<br />
and lack therefore of site-specific conservation options. Individual species action plans<br />
such as the Biodiversity Action Plans (BAPs) in Europe, or the US Endangered Species Program<br />
that are backed up by legal enforcement, also reduce the vulnerability of a species to climate<br />
change. A limited number of such plans already exist in the <strong>Andean</strong> region, e.g., for Polylepis in<br />
the Callejon de Conchucos in Ancash, Peru; and Southern Horned Curassow Pauxi unicornis in<br />
28
Bolivia. Identification of further species for which alternative adaption options are unlikely to be<br />
sufficient to maintain viable populations should be a priority.<br />
Figure 2.4. Adaptive management options for increasing resilience to biodiversity, across spatial scales.<br />
Where a species is imminently at risk of extinction, its translocation (or assisted migration) to<br />
suitable but inaccessible habitat (perhaps due to distance from the species’ current range) and ex<br />
situ conservation have to be seriously considered, despite acknowledged costs, difficulties and<br />
risks (e.g., Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2008). For example, following precipitous population declines<br />
caused principally by Chytridiomycosis (Pounds et al. 2006), many <strong>Andean</strong> amphibians now<br />
require an ex situ approach, namely bringing the most threatened species into captive breeding<br />
until release back into the wild becomes feasible. In other situations, this may be done in situ,<br />
translocating plants and animals to sites that will be buffered from the effects of climate change<br />
(see ‘refugia’ below) or at sites that can be managed such that the negative effects of climate<br />
change are mitigated. Crucially, translocation will also likely have to include long-lived elements<br />
of critical habitat types, such as seedlings of trees that upon maturity will provide food, shelter<br />
and other resources, for the range of species and taxa that will be shifting their distributions into<br />
these newly climatically suitable sites/regions.<br />
Site-level approaches<br />
Protected areas (PAs) and PA networks remain the optimal strategy for conserving global<br />
biodiversity (Bruner et al. 2001). Increasing the coverage of the global PA network in order to<br />
fill ‘gaps’ (i.e., species whose ranges are not included in the current network (Rodrigues et al.<br />
2004)) is an urgent conservation priority. However, under climate change simply trying to<br />
achieve adequate representation of current biodiversity pattern when choosing new sites is likely<br />
29
to be insufficient. Instead, other considerations, particularly potential shifts in both biodiversity<br />
pattern and process, must be explicitly considered.<br />
Relict forest patches above the mean closed timberline are a common feature on many steep<br />
mountain slopes up to 5,400 m, especially along the eastern Andes. Composed primarily of<br />
Polylepis and Gynoxys (Fjeldså and Kessler 1996; Coblentz and Keating 2008), these forest<br />
islands harbour assemblages of other species including endemic fauna and flora such as the<br />
critically endangered bird, the Royal Cinclodes (Cinclodes aricomae). Indeed, these patches have<br />
likely functioned as biological refugia through climatically stressful epochs in the past,<br />
including most recently the Little Ice Age. Their apparent stability therefore suggests resilience<br />
in the face of climate change. It has therefore been argued that they should be considered high<br />
priority targets for conservation, both for their current ecological function and for their potential<br />
to serve as refugia under the changed climatic conditions of the future. However, some caution is<br />
needed since these relict patches could simply represent remnants of much more extensive<br />
forests fragmented by humans over centuries or millennia (Fjeldså and Kessler 1996; Fjeldså<br />
2002; Kessler 2002), raising doubt over their ability to act as future refugia. Other putative<br />
refugia have also been identified in the <strong>Andean</strong> region, including areas with stable mist<br />
formation on the Pacific slope and the intermontane basins (Fjeldså et al. 1999). Clearly, the<br />
robust identification of functional refugia in the tropical Andes must be a research priority.<br />
Environmental gradients containing sufficient natural habitat to create land-use mosaics that<br />
will maintain functional habitat connectivity, should be incorporated into conservation units<br />
wherever possible (e.g. sites, corridors, watersheds). Both short, sharp, and broad, diffuse<br />
gradients should be considered where relevant, because of the different options they provide for<br />
rapid dispersal of species or adaptation through genetic plasticity (Killeen and Solorzano 2008).<br />
Gradients of particular relevance to the Andes include elevational, edaphic, and humidity<br />
gradients. This strategy is already being utilized in Peru, where three large national parks have<br />
been created that include entire elevational gradients (Rio Abiseo, Yanachaga-Chemillen, and<br />
Manu National Parks) (Young and Lipton 2006), in Bolivia (Madidi, Carrasco, and Amboró<br />
National Parks), in Ecuador (La Reserva Cofanes-Chingual), and in Colombia.<br />
The tracking of ecotones (the transition between two ecosystems or biomes) offers a further<br />
adaptive management option. An important example in the <strong>Andean</strong> context is the treeline, the<br />
dynamics of which are sensitive to both climatic and human impacts (Bader et al. 2007; Young<br />
and Leon 2007). Given the relatively high environmental and climatic variability at ecotones,<br />
populations in or near these areas are likely to be pre-adapted to a relatively high level of<br />
physiological stress and may possess adaptive genetic traits that are absent from core populations<br />
(Killeen and Solorzano 2008). Monitoring and tracking of ecotones is now feasible thanks to<br />
recent advances in remote sensing (see Monitoring section).<br />
Riverine forest corridors have served as pathways or refugia for many forest taxa (e.g., in<br />
Madagascar; Wilme et al. 2006) and are likely to continue to do so under climate change. By<br />
connecting higher elevation watersheds to the lowlands, they incorporate many of the<br />
environmental gradients already highlighted as key targets in the <strong>Andean</strong> region. Examples<br />
include the Topo and Palora rivers in Ecuador, whose watersheds are protected by the Llangantes<br />
and Sangay National Parks, thereby covering an elevational gradient of almost 3000 m.<br />
30
Maintaining riverine forest can reduce the build up of sediment and/or chemicals leaching into<br />
the water from the surrounding landscape, preserving water quality for aquatic species. The<br />
rivers themselves are also critical for both freshwater and biodiversity.<br />
In order to reduce or remove threats to a vulnerable species or ecosystems, strict protection of<br />
some localities within PAs, or of entire PAs, will be required. Most tropical <strong>Andean</strong> national<br />
protected area systems include strict protection as a management option, typically defining<br />
specific vulnerable zones as “no impact” or “no visit”. Use of this management option is likely to<br />
become even more crucial under climate change and sensitivity will need to be shown in<br />
deriving the correct balance between sustainable use of an area by local communities and the<br />
preservation of species and key habitats.<br />
SDM projections provide a means of identifying regions or even sites that could represent<br />
concentrations of future species richness and/or regions projected to experience large numbers<br />
of species moving through them, as species’ ranges shift. As a result, they have begun to be<br />
incorporated into adaptive management planning, e.g. for the Cape Proteaceae in South Africa<br />
(Williams et al. 2005); for the African IBA network (Hole et al. in press). If the assumptions and<br />
uncertainties in such modelling exercises are fully acknowledged, these techniques currently<br />
provide the only method of proactively identifying future regions of potentially high<br />
conservation value that may not be included in current conservation plans.<br />
Similarly, use of SDM and dynamic vegetation models (DVM) projections provide a means of<br />
informing future site-based management strategies by identifying and targeting broad<br />
management strategies across networks of conservation sites, that reflect potential changes in the<br />
species composition of those sites. Broad strategies can be characterized from SDM derived<br />
projections of inter-site differences in the number of immigrant, emigrant and persistent species<br />
across a network of sites (e.g., for the African IBA network; Hole et al. in press), or based on<br />
DVM projections of future vegetation patterns within sites (e.g., the Canadian Parks system;<br />
Scott et al. 2002).<br />
Landscape-level approaches – corridors and landscape permeability<br />
Large protected areas may include sufficient environmental gradients such that they can be<br />
managed as a single landscape unit (Figure 2.5 A). Within such sites, species range shifts will<br />
likely leave relict distributions in addition to forming new species assemblages along elevation<br />
and humidity gradients. A variety of approaches may then be viable for preservation,<br />
translocation, and restoration. Most <strong>Andean</strong> landscapes, however, include a wide variety of<br />
human land uses, creating mosaics within which conservation strategies are more constrained<br />
(Figure 2.5 B). Given the potential speed and magnitude of species range shifts in response to<br />
climate change, and the very high likelihood of substantial species turnover within conservation<br />
areas (Hole et al. 2009), most site-based conservation strategies will continue to fulfil their role<br />
only if the landscapes within which they are embedded (i.e., the matrix) allow species to move<br />
through them across ecologically relevant temporal and spatial scales (Gascon et al. 1999).<br />
Corridors are landscape scale conservation and management units (Soule and Terborgh 1999)<br />
that have already been defined across parts of the <strong>Andean</strong> region. Within such landscape units,<br />
promotion of land use efficiency may prove to be key. Encouraging the concentration of<br />
agricultural production within restricted, but high yield areas, may favour de-intensification in<br />
31
Figure 2.5. <strong>Andean</strong> landscapes have strong environmental gradients, with dramatic changes in elevation joined by<br />
shifts in humidity, mediated through rainfall amounts, degree of seasonality, and soil moisture.<br />
XA, represents a protected landscape, wherein the goals of biodiversity conservation take priority. Climate change<br />
can force species shifts along the elevational gradient (b), along the humidity gradient (c), or in some cases may not<br />
cause species shifts or may not affect a particular site (a). Strategies within this protected area may include special<br />
attention to a, given it serves as a conservation refugia, while facilitated transformation of important habitat<br />
elements (e.g., tree plantings) and translocation of species of concern to places predicted to be important for<br />
altitudinal shifts (b) and range shifts to wetter or drier sites (c).<br />
XB, represents an inhabited landscape, utilized by people and with multiple land owners and land tenures. Here<br />
there could also be refugia (a), elevational shifts (b) and shifts with changing humidity regimes (c), but the<br />
conservation strategies may be more constrained in deference to competing needs for land use. Instead management<br />
strategies or conservation incentives could be used to lessen the landscape matrix’s resistance to species movements,<br />
through formal conservation corridors or through land uses such as agroforestry or shade coffee. The refugia (a)<br />
could be particularly important conservation targets, requiring active management interventions including strict<br />
protection and habitat management.<br />
32
less productive and more vulnerable areas (e.g., on slopes and at higher elevations) and reduce<br />
encroachment on natural habitats (Green et al. 2005; Grau and Aide 2007), although the<br />
effectiveness of such ‘land sparing’ remains questionable (Ewers et al. 2009).<br />
Monitoring<br />
Monitoring is a critical component of the adaptive management process (Figure 2.1, Stage 4). It<br />
provides baseline assessments of biodiversity and environmental parameters of interest (e.g.,<br />
climate) from which to interpret current and potential future changes; a means to validate model<br />
outputs (e.g. is a species range shifting in the manner projected by its SDM?); an early-warning<br />
mechanism of unexpected climate change impacts; and a measure of the effectiveness of a<br />
conservation action, that must then be fed back into adaptive management. Choosing the correct<br />
indicators to monitor can be challenging given limited resources, and they will depend on the<br />
goal of the monitoring. Suitable indicators can be individual species (e.g., amphibians with a<br />
recognized sensitivity to climatic conditions); assemblages (repeat censusing of floral<br />
assemblages is already underway through the GLORIA initiative but is otherwise lacking in the<br />
Andes); ecosystems (e.g., paramos are a crucial ecosystem to monitor since there is nowhere<br />
‘upwards’ for constituent species to go (Anderson et al. Chapter 1, this volume)); processes or<br />
interactions (e.g., the well documented relationship between fig trees (Ficus spp.) and their figwasp<br />
pollinators (Agaoninae) represents a powerful indicator since its disruption through climate<br />
change would resonate across communities or even entire ecosystems); composites of these (e.g.,<br />
GLORIA http://www.gloria.ac.at/?a=20 and TEAM http://www.teamnetwork.org/en/ networks);<br />
or derived products from remote sensing (e.g., NDVI to assess seasonal ‘greening’). Utilizing a<br />
broad range of indicators increases our ability to detect climate change signals and rapidly adapt<br />
management responses accordingly. Long-term data series are also vital for understanding the<br />
natural range of variability of systems, yet standardized long-term monitoring records are lacking<br />
throughout the majority of the tropical Andes.<br />
The utility of remote sensing data for monitoring purposes has increased rapidly over the<br />
past decade and merits closer inspection, given its potential for relatively cheap, standardized<br />
monitoring over much of the globe, including the tropical Andes. There is now a wide array of<br />
current and/or planned Earth observing systems (satellite, aerial, and in situ) at local, national<br />
and regional scales, that collect and disseminate monitoring data. The Global Earth Observing<br />
System of Systems (GEOSS) is coordinating the collection, distribution and use of these data<br />
across multiple themes of importance to society: climate, weather, energy, health, agriculture,<br />
water, disasters, biodiversity, and ecosystems. Recent changes in data policy have made remote<br />
sensing data available at little or no cost. Table 2.2 provides an overview of current satellite and<br />
associated sensors most relevant to monitoring climate change effects on biodiversity and<br />
ecosystems in the tropical Andes. As an example of the utility of such data, satellite and aerial<br />
photography, together with radar and LIDAR data, when coupled with field-based calibration<br />
and validation, now provide an operational means of defining and monitoring ecotones,<br />
including changes in treelines, through estimation of tree height, basal area and stem volume<br />
(Holmgren 2004), treeline structure (Rees 2007), species composition (Holmgren and Persson<br />
2004), tree migration (Næsset and Nelson 2007), and changes in treeline over time (Zhang et al.<br />
2009). The number of satellite-borne sensors has increased dramatically and many hyperspectral,<br />
radar, and LIDAR missions are on-going or planned. Yet access to this high data volume, to<br />
33
usable, derived products, and to technical capacity for interpretation remain limiting factors for<br />
monitoring climate change impacts on biodiversity.<br />
Table 2.2. An overview of principal current remote sensing data, of relevance to biodiversity and<br />
ecosystem monitoring in the tropical Andes . * = commercial system; Pan = panchromatic; XS =<br />
multispectral.<br />
Satellite / Sensor Temporal<br />
Resolution<br />
(days)<br />
Moderate-resolution (250-8000m)<br />
Spatial<br />
Resolution<br />
(m)<br />
Spectral<br />
Resolution /<br />
Band<br />
Program<br />
Life<br />
Derivative<br />
Products<br />
AVHRR 1 1000-8000 XS, thermal 1982- IGBP Land Cover,<br />
GIMMS NDVI<br />
SeaWIFS 1 1000 XS 1998- Ocean Color<br />
SPOT-Vegetation (VGT) 2 1000 XS 1998- GLC 2000, GIMMS<br />
MODIS 1 250-1000 36 channels in<br />
visible - thermal<br />
MERIS 1 300 36 channels in<br />
visible -<br />
thermal<br />
Medium-resolution optical (10-250m)<br />
NDVI<br />
2000- MODIS LAI/fPAR, VI,<br />
NPP, Land Cover, Fire.<br />
Land Surface<br />
Temperature<br />
2000- GLC 2005<br />
Landsat 1-3 MSS 16 80 XS 1973-87 Global Land Survey<br />
1970<br />
Landsat 4-5 TM 16 28.5 XS, thermal 1984- Global Land Survey<br />
1970, 1990, 2000,<br />
2005<br />
Landsat 7 ETM 16 15-28.5m XS, thermal. 1999- Global Land Survey<br />
pan<br />
2000, 2005<br />
SPOT 1-5 2 10-20 Green, red, 1990-<br />
near-IR<br />
ASTER 16 15, 30, 90 XS, thermal 1999- ASTER Global Digital<br />
Elevation Model<br />
IRS Variable 2.5, 20, 30 Pan, XS 1988-<br />
CBERS 1-3 5 20 XS, Pan 2003-<br />
ALOS 46 10 XS 2006-<br />
Medium-resolution radar(10-250m)<br />
ERS 1-2 35 25 C-band SAR 1996-<br />
JERS-1 44 10 L-band 1992-98<br />
Radarsat 1-2 24 8, 20, 50 C-band 1995-<br />
PALSAR 46 10, 100 L-band 2006-<br />
SRTM short-lived 30,90, 1000 Interferometric 2002 SRTM30, SRTM90<br />
radar<br />
DEMS<br />
ENVISAT ASAR 35 C-band 2002-<br />
High-resolution (
Opportunities – Demonstrating the Value of Maintaining Functional<br />
Ecosystems<br />
Climate change is already having negative repercussions for both biodiversity and people and<br />
poses a multitude of future risks. If there is any positive side to this, it may be that climate<br />
change has helped push biodiversity, ecosystems and the services they provide, to finally being<br />
recognized and valued as critical components of the Earth system, rather than as a global<br />
commons to be used and abused without concern for the consequences. Attaching a ‘value’ to<br />
nature is seen as anathema by some and care must be taken to ensure that the value of an<br />
ecosystem reflects not just its direct commercial or marketable value (e.g., provision of<br />
hydrological services), but also those goods and services that are extremely difficult to quantify<br />
and value (e.g., cultural services such as spiritual value). Nevertheless, the lack of any sort of<br />
valuation is an underlying cause of the degradation of ecosystems and the loss of biodiversity<br />
that we see today (TEEB 2008). Such a valuation becomes even more critical given that the<br />
maintenance of functional ecosystem services is likely to represent the most cost-effective way<br />
to avoid and/or adapt to many of the projected impacts of climate change on human wellbeing.<br />
So-called ‘ecosystem based adaptation’ (an adaptation strategy now defined and endorsed by<br />
IUCN, the World Bank and many other international organizations) is likely to be of particular<br />
relevance in much of the developing world, where ‘technical’ adaptation options, such as the<br />
building of a large-scale water treatment plant in response to diminished freshwater quality, may<br />
be a far less pertinent adaptation option than, for example, maintaining or restoring forest-cover<br />
throughout a key watershed. In light of these developments, including a valuation (even a “backof-the-envelope”<br />
calculation) of the ecosystem services preserved or restored as part of any<br />
adaptive management strategy, represents a key tool to leverage biodiversity-favourable policy<br />
across stakeholders.<br />
Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES)<br />
Paying individuals or communities for the services provided by natural ecosystems on their land<br />
is still rare in the <strong>Andean</strong> region. However, successful PES schemes do exist. For example, in the<br />
Los Negros river watershed in Bolivia, Fundación Natura has initiated a project that seeks to<br />
reduce or prevent reductions in water quality and quantity for downstream users (principally<br />
farmers relying on irrigation) caused by upstream deforestation. Through the scheme, these<br />
downstream irrigators agree to compensate upstream farmers to protect certain forests and<br />
restore others, thereby ensuring the quality of their water supply. In Ecuador meanwhile, the<br />
Pimampiro initiative places a specific fee for watershed forest protection onto the water bills of<br />
nearly 1300 families; 20% of these funds are then used to pay 19 upstream farmers to conserve<br />
their forests (390 ha of forest and 163 ha of paramo) (Camacho 2008). Major cities such as<br />
Bogotá in Colombia and Santa Cruz in Bolivia are now also beginning to utilize water-based<br />
PES schemes through small additions to water or electricity fees to pay for watershed<br />
conservation. In Quito, Ecuador, which receives its water supply from the high plateaus of the<br />
surrounding <strong>Andean</strong> range, a Water Conservation Fund (FONAG) was set up in 2000 to manage<br />
and direct revenue generated by a water consumption fee, to fund conservation and restoration<br />
projects in surrounding watershed. These projects include, for example, improving sheep and<br />
cattle production practices in order to reduce negative impacts on land cover and water quality.<br />
35
On a potentially far greater scale, the introduction of REDD (Reduced Emissions from<br />
Deforestation and Degradation) as a climate change mitigation strategy, could provide a<br />
potentially massive increase in the funds available for forest conservation through their role in<br />
carbon sequestration and storage. The benefits to biodiversity could be increased further still if<br />
policymakers could agree to prioritize forests with high biodiversity for REDD funding. The<br />
potential for REDD to contribute to biodiversity conservation in the tropical <strong>Andean</strong> region is<br />
substantial and numerous pilot studies are being carried out. For example, a recent study in<br />
Peru’s Cordillera Azul National Park, has demonstrated that management activities over the past<br />
six years have decreased deforestation rates in its buffer zone and prevented further deforestation<br />
in the park. However, without a continuous source of revenue, such as REDD could provide,<br />
continued management will be impossible and the park will likely succumb to threats from<br />
logging, oil extraction and the expansion of the agricultural frontier that have impacted the park<br />
in the past.<br />
Incorporating Biodiversity Conservation into Development Planning<br />
There is a growing awareness, from local NGOs to the large multilateral organizations, that<br />
poverty and biodiversity are intimately linked. The poor, especially in rural areas, depend on<br />
biodiversity for food, fuel, shelter, medicines and a wealth of other ecosystem services.<br />
Biodiversity loss therefore exacerbates poverty, while poverty in turn is a major threat to<br />
biodiversity, through unsustainable land use. The conservation and sustainable use of<br />
biodiversity also plays a critical role in the economic survival of a variety of production sectors<br />
such as fisheries, agriculture, and tourism. Consideration of biodiversity must therefore be<br />
integrated into the development process. This ‘mainstreaming’ of biodiversity into production<br />
sectors, poverty reduction plans and national sustainable development plans has been an<br />
internationally acknowledged goal for some time. For instance, goal 3.3 of the Strategic Plan of<br />
the Convention on Biodiversity (CBD), developed in 2002, requires that “biodiversity concerns<br />
are being integrated into relevant national sectoral and cross-sectoral plans, programmes and<br />
policies”. Yet progress on achieving this goal in the <strong>Andean</strong> region, as elsewhere, has been<br />
limited. It must now become a priority, both in terms of collating the scientific and socioeconomic<br />
evidence to support it, and the development of the policy initiatives to make it happen.<br />
Obstacles – Institutional Capacity<br />
Perhaps the single greatest limitation to robustly addressing the combination of the direct and<br />
indirect effects of climate change, together with the impacts of other global change (e.g.,<br />
deforestation, species invasion) on biodiversity in the <strong>Andean</strong> Region, is the lack of institutional<br />
capacity. This lack is principally a result of competing and overlapping responsibilities,<br />
compounded by lack of interconnections between and among institutions, authorities and other<br />
stakeholders in the region. Although skilled and technically adept scientists and policy makers<br />
exist across the region, they are in profoundly short supply. In order to improve capacity<br />
therefore, there is a clear need to: 1) Develop interdisciplinary higher education programs, to<br />
train qualified local researchers in the processing and analysis of ever increasing quantities of<br />
data (e.g., by promoting international programmes for students to study in leading institutions in<br />
36
Europe, Asia and North America). 2) Promote training opportunities for local leaders to facilitate<br />
their understanding and interpretation of complex analyses. 3) Involve the social, behavioral, and<br />
economic sciences in the necessary planning, implementation, and monitoring; advances are<br />
being made in the areas of environmental economics and common pool resource theory, used for<br />
understanding decisions relating to natural resource use and valuation. 4) Establish and promote<br />
social networks, for example, through the internet, to coordinate and facilitate information<br />
dissemination to decision makers and other stakeholders.<br />
At the scale of the tropical Andes, institutions like the Comunidad Andina (CAN) could<br />
play a leading role in promoting and facilitating integration and adaptive practices among<br />
signatory countries. Ideally, this would result in a regional planning process at least every five<br />
years, timed to coincide with the availability of new assessments resulting from the IPCC<br />
process. The planning process may also need to expand to include the Venezuelan Andes, northwest<br />
Argentina and north-east Chile, given the extension of tropical <strong>Andean</strong> ecosystems across<br />
these country’s borders. At the national level, there are existing planning initiatives in both the<br />
private and public sectors that could be expanded and replicated elsewhere. Not only should this<br />
involve the scientific community, but also social communicators. At the local level,<br />
municipalities and local communities will need access to results to allow them to assess and plan<br />
for locally-led initiatives. It will therefore be important to promote the provision of training to<br />
meet identified needs, so that local concerns are accounted for. In some regions, municipalities<br />
coordinate with protected area systems and should also be partners when setting climate change<br />
goals. Throughout the regional planning process, it will be crucial to facilitate public<br />
dissemination in order to ensure that the process is transparent and accountable.<br />
Conclusions<br />
Given the global importance of the tropical Andes for biodiversity, and the considerable risks<br />
posed by climate change, it is critical that both a regional and an international response be<br />
oriented to provide the necessary information and resources at the appropriate regional, national,<br />
and local scales, in order to inform robust adaptive management responses. Given current social<br />
inequalities which will likely be further exacerbated by climate change, the implementation of<br />
strategies that incorporate the use of economic, policy, and legal instruments for biodiversity<br />
conservation across the tropical <strong>Andean</strong> region will need to consider equity, fairness and<br />
distributional issues. How are these policies impacting stakeholders? Are they imposing burdens<br />
on the poorest sectors? These and other similar questions must be considered when designing<br />
and implementing integrated conservation and development policies. We highlight nine critical<br />
needs:<br />
• Convene a region-wide systematic conservation planning process, that explicitly<br />
incorporates the impacts of climate change, and that reconvenes every five years, in order<br />
to coincide with the availability of new knowledge from the IPCC and other assessments.<br />
• Continue to develop a comprehensive understanding of <strong>Andean</strong> climatology of the<br />
present and recent past to provide a baseline for detecting change and for assessing<br />
species and ecosystem capacities for resilience to climate stresses.<br />
• Implement standardized monitoring protocols to provide baseline evaluations of species<br />
distributions, population status, and ecosystem integrity, drawing from taxonomy, field<br />
37
ecology, and remote sensing. It is critical that data transparency and sharing is widely<br />
promoted.<br />
• Continue to develop and test the next generation of SDMs for projecting species and<br />
ecosystem (or proxy) spatial responses to climate change, since these provide the only<br />
way of assessing potential synergies and conflicts with people in an uncertain future.<br />
• Improve the understanding of the indirect impacts of climate change, resulting from<br />
planned and unplanned human adaptation and mitigation responses, on biodiversity and<br />
the provision of ecosystem services.<br />
• Demonstrate the direct and indirect benefits of ecosystem based adaptation as a key tool<br />
for making lives and livelihoods more resilient to climate change.<br />
• Build institutional capacity to design and implement robust adaptive management<br />
strategies, at regional, national and local scales, including all stakeholders.<br />
• Incorporate consideration of biodiversity into local, national and regional development<br />
planning, across all economic and societal sectors. Biodiversity and the ecosystem<br />
services it underpins must be front and center with economic and other considerations.<br />
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43
Appendix 2.1. Summary information on the current PA systems in three of the four tropical<br />
<strong>Andean</strong> countries<br />
1. What is the focus of the current PA system – i.e., is it selected on biodiversity targets or<br />
just the cheapest/unusable land?<br />
Bolivia<br />
In general, on biodiversity targets, but not necessarily in the best portions of the priority<br />
ecosystems in terms of conservation status and threat levels. Most recent PAs were created on<br />
the basis of socio-political opportunities (political will). Gap analysis at national level requires<br />
downscaling in order to better prioritize where future PAs need to be created.<br />
Peru<br />
At present what is being used are “marxan” type approximations, which are looking for sectors<br />
with maximum protection at minimum cost.<br />
Ecuador<br />
Apparently the design of PA systems is changing, not only looking for the opportunity to create<br />
spaces that might contain representative samples of biodiversity, but also to include concrete<br />
targets, such as a certain key or endangered species, certain natural monuments or specific<br />
ecosystem services. “Using the cheapest lands” has not been a common criteria for selection it<br />
seems.<br />
2. How well does the current PA system likely represent current biodiversity pattern and<br />
process?<br />
Bolivia<br />
At species level, about 70-80% covered by national PAs (without considering municipal and<br />
departmental level PAs or indigenous and community conservation areas or indigenous<br />
communal lands (TCOs). There is a bias on representation of lowlands (and <strong>Andean</strong> foothills).<br />
Peru<br />
It seems that there is a lack of representation of ecological processes in the western part.<br />
Ecuador<br />
There is no definition (base line) about what to understand as “biodiversity pattern and process”.<br />
Both GAP analysis in Ecuador (marine and terrestrial) consider maintaining representative<br />
samples of all ecosystems – vegetation formations of the country as main criteria (rather than<br />
processes).<br />
3. What are the likely key gaps under climate change?<br />
Bolivia<br />
Altitudinal ranges and intersections between ecosystems (e.g. bosque seco chiquitano –<br />
pantanal).<br />
44
Peru<br />
Difficult to say, as there are not many climate change scenarios available for analysis of<br />
representativness in mountainous conditions. It seems the problem is more serious on the western<br />
side, because of the lower rate of PA coverage and the high number of population, especially in<br />
the valleys. This population generates a high demand of hydrological resources, that are being<br />
extracted from the high parts of the (Eastern slope?) watersheds.<br />
Ecuador<br />
Lack of information (e.g., a base line of how biodiversity would be affected by climate change).<br />
Existing climate models are not detailed enough, especially for the <strong>Andean</strong> region, and are not an<br />
adequate basis to define strategies.<br />
What would be needed is a balance between practical mitigation actions and local adaptation<br />
measures, combining the following: biodiversity management, management of hydrological<br />
resources, risk management, agro-ecology, food security, poverty reduction strategies, conflict<br />
management, capacity development, territorial approach, among others.<br />
45
Appendix 2.2. Definitions of key terms<br />
Biological diversity: Variability among living organisms from all sources including, inter alia,<br />
terrestrial, marine and other aquatic ecosystems and the ecological complexes of which they are<br />
part; this includes diversity within species, between species and of ecosystems. (CBD,Art.2)<br />
Planning: Refers to a set of activities which leads to identifying i) issues, and goals; and to ii)<br />
formulating strategies and plans to be followed for the achievement of concrete goals.<br />
Conservation: Protection and management of natural resources. The CBD identifies 2<br />
biodiversity conservation options: i)"In-situ conservation" (in their natural habitats), ii)"Ex-situ<br />
conservation" (outside their natural habitats.) (CBD, Art. 2)<br />
Natural resources management: Set of activities and actions or inactions carried out to either:<br />
exploit, use, conserve or preserve natural resources. These set of actions or inactions can lead to<br />
either positive or negative impacts on biodiversity.<br />
Question: * whether conservation is a component of management/ or whether management is a<br />
component of conservation.<br />
Climate change: A change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity<br />
that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate<br />
variability observed over comparable time periods. (UNFCCC, Art.1)<br />
46
Global Change Biology (2007) 13, 288–299, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01278.x<br />
Upward range extension of <strong>Andean</strong> anurans and<br />
chytridiomycosis to extreme elevations in response<br />
to tropical deglaciation<br />
TRACIE A. SEIMON* 1 , ANTON SEIMONw 1 , PETER DASZAKz, STEPHAN R.P. HALLOY§,<br />
LISA M. SCHLOEGELz, CÉSAR A. AGUILAR} , PRESTON SOWELLk, ALEX D. HYATT**,<br />
BRONWEN KONECKYww and J O H N E . S I M M O N S zz<br />
*Columbia University, 630 W 168th Street, New York, NY 10032, USA, wThe Earth Institute, Columbia University, 61 Rt. 9W,<br />
Palisades, NY 10964, USA, zConsortium for Conservation Medicine, 460 West 34th Street, New York, NY 10001, USA, §Instituto<br />
de Ecología, Universidad Mayor de San Andrés, La Paz, Bolivia, }Departamento de Herpetología, Museo de Historia Natural<br />
Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Av. Arenales 1256, Jesús María, Apdo 14-0434, Lima 14, Perú, kStratus Consulting,<br />
1881 9th Street Suite 201, Boulder, CO, USA, **CSIRO, Livestock Industries, Australian Animal Health Laboratory, 5<br />
Portarlington Road, Private Bag 24, Geelong, Vic. 3220, Australia, wwBarnard College, Columbia University, 3001 Broadway, New<br />
York, NY 10027, USA, zzNatural History Museum and Biodiversity Research Center, 1345 Jayhawk Blvd, University of Kansas,<br />
Lawrence, KS 66045, USA<br />
Introduction<br />
Abstract<br />
High-alpine life forms and ecosystems exist at the limits of habitable environments, and<br />
thus, are especially sensitive to environmental change. Here we report a recent increase<br />
in the elevational limit of anurans following glacial retreat in the tropical Peruvian<br />
Andes. Three species have colonized ponds in recently deglaciated terrain at new record<br />
elevations for amphibians worldwide (5244–5400 m). Two of these species were also<br />
found to be infected with Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), an emerging fungal<br />
pathogen causally associated with global amphibian declines, including the disappearance<br />
of several Latin American species. The presence of this pathogen was associated<br />
with elevated mortality rates of at least one species. These results represent the first<br />
evidence of upward expansion of anurans to newly available habitat brought about by<br />
recent deglaciation. Furthermore, the large increase in the upper limit of known Bd<br />
infections, previously reported as 4112 m in Ecuador, to 5348 m in this study, also expands<br />
the spatial domain of potential Bd pathogenicity to encompass virtually all high<br />
elevation anuran habitats in the tropical Andes.<br />
Keywords: alpine biodiversity, amphibians, amphibian decline, chytridiomycosis, climate change,<br />
deglaciation, ecological succession, Pleurodema, Telmatobius, tropical andes<br />
Received 18 April 2006; revised version received 27 July 2006 and accepted 14 June 2006<br />
Global environmental changes such as climatic warming<br />
and emerging infectious diseases are impacting<br />
animal biodiversity in the Neotropics, and are having<br />
particularly adverse consequences for amphibian<br />
populations. Climate warming has been shown to influence<br />
species distribution and abundance, and cause<br />
upward migration of species in tropical mountains<br />
Correspondence: Tracie A. Seimon, tel. 1 1845 596 6883,<br />
e-mail: tad2105@columbia.edu<br />
1 Contributed equally to this work.<br />
(Parmesan, 1996; Pounds et al., 1999). Investigators in<br />
Costa Rica have demonstrated upward migration of a<br />
range of bird populations in response to an elevational<br />
increase in the adiabatically produced cloud base (and<br />
resulting cloud forest fauna), a phenomenon that is also<br />
associated with declines in anuran and lizard populations<br />
(Pounds et al., 1999). Infectious diseases have<br />
increasingly been reported to be associated with population<br />
declines of amphibian species (Daszak et al.,<br />
2000), and climate-induced ecological changes can alter<br />
host–parasite dynamics so that infectious diseases exert<br />
a greater impact on certain species (Pounds et al., 1999).<br />
Chytridiomycosis, an emerging fungal disease of<br />
r 2006 The Authors<br />
288 Journal compilation r 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
amphibians caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis<br />
(Bd), is causally linked to a loss of amphibian biodiversity<br />
in tropical montane amphibian species (Lips et al.,<br />
2006). Recently, Pounds et al. (2006) introduced the<br />
chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis and proposed<br />
that large-scale warming is likely a key factor in driving<br />
epidemic disease and the disappearance of anuran<br />
species in Central and South America. Their data show<br />
that extinctions in the Neotropics occur where climatic<br />
conditions may be more favorable for disease development,<br />
and that elevations below 1000 m, and above<br />
3500 m, would likely fall outside of the optimum thermal<br />
growth conditions to support disease outbreaks.<br />
As most amphibian surveys have been conducted at<br />
elevations below 4000 m, relatively little is known about<br />
survival of amphibians above this elevation, the impact<br />
that climatic warming is having upon these populations,<br />
or whether chytridiomycosis may also be affecting<br />
these communities. Climatic warming is also<br />
implicated in ongoing tropical deglaciation (i.e. the<br />
reduction in high-altitude glacial ice volume over recent<br />
decades in low latitude mountains), the impact of<br />
which has yet to be ascertained for anurans inhabiting<br />
high alpine zones.<br />
The principal goal of this study was to investigate if<br />
anurans in high <strong>Andean</strong> environments are being impacted<br />
by recent environmental changes. Our field<br />
study site is in the Cordillera Vilcanota, a heavily<br />
glacierized range in southern Peru within a region of<br />
the tropical Andes where significant changes in temperature<br />
and environmental responses have been recorded<br />
in recent decades. Documented changes include<br />
significant tropospheric warming, averaging 0.33 1C per<br />
decade (Vuille et al., 2003), a corresponding rise in<br />
freezing level (Diaz & Graham, 1996), and a rapid<br />
melting of glaciers since the Little Ice Age (LIA:<br />
ca. 1520–1880; Thompson, 1992; Francou et al., 2003).<br />
We conducted eight multidisciplinary field investigations<br />
in the Cordillera Vilcanota between 2000 and 2005,<br />
including surveys of anuran populations at six sites<br />
from 2003–2005, to study rapid ecological successions<br />
by high-<strong>Andean</strong> flora and fauna as ice retreats. Our<br />
study area offers an unusual opportunity to evaluate<br />
ecological observations in contexts of 75 years of landscape<br />
change. The upper reaches of the watershed are<br />
heavily glacierized, but over recent decades have experienced<br />
marked retreat of its ice margins concurrent<br />
with region wide climatic warming. An air photo series<br />
from 1931 and subsequent aerial and satellite imagery<br />
from 1962, 1980, and 2005 provide a temporally resolved<br />
portrayal of ice margins during this period of<br />
glacial retreat, and when combined with field surveys,<br />
allows for the monitoring of species migration into<br />
newly available habitat exposed by deglaciation.<br />
Materials and methods<br />
Geographic referencing<br />
Topographic map quads 28t-I-SE and 28t-II-NE<br />
[1 : 25 000 scale, 25 m elevation contour interval; Instituto<br />
Geográfico Militar (IGM), Lima, 1972] served as the<br />
reference base for this study. All GPS field measurements<br />
were made with a Garmin XL12 set to the<br />
Provisional South America 1956 datum for consistency<br />
with the topographic map series. Elevation observations<br />
specified in the text are from GPS and are consistent,<br />
though slightly more elevated, than interpolated<br />
values indicated on the topographic maps (mean difference<br />
124.7 m, standard deviation 7.95 m, N 5 18<br />
points); only points from within areas that were unglaciated<br />
in 1962, when data for topographic mapping<br />
was originally obtained, were compared to eliminate<br />
elevation differences related to changes in ice thickness.<br />
Ice recession analysis<br />
r 2006 The Authors<br />
Journal compilation r 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Global Change Biology, 13, 288–299<br />
FROG MIGRATION AND DEGLACIATION 289<br />
The temporal evolution of glacial recession was examined<br />
by pairing ground-based observations with aerial<br />
photography (available since 1931) and satellite<br />
imagery (since 1966). Only images exhibiting clearly<br />
defined glacial margins (unobscured by recent snowfall)<br />
were considered for analysis. Due to the variety of<br />
image types, view angles and resolutions, the isoline<br />
placements may have positional errors of up to 50 m.<br />
The exception is the 1962 isoline, which was precisionmapped<br />
by the IGM, and therefore, considered an<br />
accurate representation of glacial extent.<br />
LIA. The position of the LIA ice extent maximum was<br />
inferred by the visual discontinuity in substrate tone<br />
related to the abrupt change in abundance of lichens<br />
across this former glacial trimline. This ecotone is<br />
clearly evident in all imagery in the vicinity of site D,<br />
where its position was locally confirmed with multiple<br />
GPS ground measurements.<br />
1931. The 1931 isoline was determined by analysis of<br />
oblique aerial photographs taken during an overflight<br />
of the Cordillera Vilcanota by the Shippee–Johnson<br />
expedition on approximately 1 June 1931 (date inferred<br />
from Shippee, 1933). Examination of the series identified<br />
11 large-format (17 23 cm 2 ) glass plate negatives (nos.<br />
O86–O93 and O101–O103) displaying the pass region<br />
containing Sites D–F. These negatives were scanned by<br />
personnel at the American Museum of Natural History<br />
(AMNH) and then photogrammetrically analyzed to<br />
determine aircraft position and altitude for each<br />
image. Ice margin positions were then established
290 T. A. SEIMON et al.<br />
through photogrammetric referencing of image content<br />
to the topographic base map.<br />
1962. The 1962 glacial margin isoline is reproduced<br />
from the 1 : 25 000 topographic maps. We confirmed<br />
the absence of seasonal snow by examining vertical<br />
image stereopairs used by the IGM to generate the<br />
maps.<br />
1980. A declassified CORONA satellite black and white<br />
positive transparency (R0744 232 009) taken on August 3,<br />
1980 was used to derive the 1980 isoline. The Sibinacocha<br />
watershed is located in the far upper left corner of the<br />
scene, and thus contains some geometric distortion of<br />
landscape features owing to the obliquity of the view<br />
angle. The image was cropped, scanned into Photoshop s<br />
and rescaled to the base map projection. The brightness<br />
gradient of the ice margin was then used as a first-guess<br />
for the isoline location. Manual corrections were then<br />
applied where geometric distortion required local<br />
realignment of image content with geo-referenced<br />
landscape features.<br />
2005. Numerous aerial images, including repeated<br />
scenes from the 1931 Shippee–Johnson series, were<br />
taken during an overflight of the Cordillera Vilcanota<br />
on March 15, 2005. This image series was utilized to<br />
locate the 2005 ice margin position; ground-truth GPS<br />
measurements made during fieldwork on March 20,<br />
2005 were used to refine ice margin positions near<br />
sampling sites in the pass region.<br />
Field surveys<br />
Multiday field surveys of amphibian populations in the<br />
Cordillera Vilcanota were conducted during two dry<br />
seasons (August 6–17, 2003; July 13–25, 2004) and two<br />
wet seasons (March 3–7, 2003; March 14–21, 2005).<br />
Visual encounter surveys by two to four researchers<br />
identified habitats supporting anuran populations.<br />
Researchers surveyed each site for 1–5 h, overturning<br />
rocks and sifting ponds with nets to locate hidden<br />
specimens, and collecting environmental data [water<br />
temperature, pH, vegetation types (aquatic and terrestrial),<br />
GPS coordinates and elevation, and photographs].<br />
Soil temperatures were measured by Hobo<br />
data loggers (Onset Computer Corporation, Bourne,<br />
MA, USA). Water temperature was measured using a<br />
digital thermometer (Oregon Scientific, Tualatin, OR,<br />
USA). As a proxy for population density we recorded<br />
the number of specimens observed and express these<br />
as the number of individuals/the number of surveyors<br />
the number of hours of survey (survey hours). Captured<br />
specimens were photographed and measured for<br />
snout-vent length (SVL), then released. Voucher specimens<br />
were collected in July 2002, August 2003, and<br />
March 2005 for species identification and Bd analysis.<br />
All voucher specimens are housed at the Museo de<br />
Historia Natural de la Universidad Nacional San Antonio<br />
Abad de Cusco.<br />
Botanical diversity was assessed to characterize<br />
habitat occupied by amphibians and other fauna. Plant<br />
species and richness are based on observations during<br />
two expeditions, July 2002 and August 2003, in which<br />
plants, reptiles, amphibians, and some invertebrates<br />
were collected. The main sampling area is 300 m from<br />
site D at a monitoring site for the Global Research<br />
Initiative in Alpine Areas (GLORIA), but also includes<br />
general area sampling outside the LIA boundary.<br />
Although these months are mid-winter (dry season)<br />
there was considerable snow cover most of the time in<br />
2002 and over parts of the area (particularly south<br />
slopes) in 2003. Many plants are dormant at this time<br />
of the year but some were flowering. Five days in 2002<br />
and 8 days in 2003 were spent in the Sibinacocha<br />
watershed above 4880 m. In 2004, two days were spent<br />
sampling the GLORIA site at 5250 m, while 3 days were<br />
spent there in 2003 (GLORIA methodology is described<br />
in Pauli et al., 2004). Further sampling in 2005 has not<br />
been analyzed for this account. The detailed description<br />
of this GLORIA site will be made available on the<br />
GLORIA website (http://www.gloria.ac.at/res/gloria_<br />
home/) once it is completed.<br />
Plants were identified to the highest level possible<br />
in the field. Vouchers collected were deposited at the<br />
Herbario Vargas of the Universidad Nacional San<br />
Antonio Abad del Cusco.<br />
Tissue preservation, histology, and polymerase chain<br />
reaction (PCR) analysis<br />
Live frogs were collected from the above referenced<br />
sites A–D, quickly euthanized and preserved in a 70%<br />
ethanol solution. Larger dead frogs were subsequently<br />
injected with 5 cm 3 of 70% ethanol. Ventral hind limb<br />
skin was excised, stored in 70% ethanol, and transferred<br />
to neutral-buffered 10% formalin before embedding in<br />
paraffin. Tissues were then sectioned at 6 mm thickness<br />
for histological staining with hematoxylin and eosin (H<br />
and E), and imaged using an Olympus IX-70 inverted<br />
light microscope (New Jersey Scientific, Middlebush,<br />
NJ, USA) equipped with an Olympus LCPlanF1<br />
20 objective, Imaging software (Roper Scientific, Tucson,<br />
AZ, USA), and a Cool Snap CCD camera (RS<br />
Photometrics, Tucson, AZ, USA). Ten fields of view<br />
( 20) were examined on two slides from different<br />
planes of section for each individual. Presence of a<br />
single Bd sporangium denoted a positive individual.<br />
r 2006 The Authors<br />
Journal compilation r 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Global Change Biology, 13, 288–299
(a)<br />
(b)<br />
(c)<br />
Site D<br />
LIA margin<br />
Site E<br />
deglaciated corridor<br />
Site F<br />
1931<br />
2005<br />
2005<br />
Infectivity was scored by averaging the highest observed<br />
number of cell layers of Bd per field, for 10<br />
fields. All specimens in 2005 were analyzed for chytridiomycosis<br />
using dry skin swabs (MW100–100, Medical<br />
Wire and Equipment Co. (UK), Wiltshire, UK) of collected<br />
frogs in the field. Collected frogs were swabbed<br />
on the dorsal and ventral surface 20 times, and five<br />
times between the webbing of the limbs, and then<br />
released. The swab was then placed in a sterile plastic<br />
vial and stored in a backpack for the duration of the<br />
trip. Swabs were then stored at 20 1C until analysis.<br />
The swabs were analyzed in triplicate by Taqman realtime<br />
PCR assay (Boyle et al., 2004), CSIRO Livestock<br />
Industries, Australian Animal Health Laboratory,<br />
Australia. All specimens were collected under<br />
the authority of Universidad Nacional San Antonio<br />
Abad de Cusco.<br />
N<br />
(d)<br />
Results<br />
0273 0274 0275 0276<br />
Fig. 1 Glacial recession since the Little Ice Age. (a) Aerial perspective from the north at 6600 m from June 1931 showing a 5400 m pass at<br />
upper-center of image completely icebound (red arrow). (b) Repeat image of the same scene on March 15, 2005, revealing significant<br />
glacial recession and development of an ice-free corridor (red arrow) across the pass. (c) Aerial perspective on March 15, 2005 looking SW<br />
from 6600 m across the recently deglaciated corridor atop the pass. Annotations identify LIA margin and anuran sampling sites within<br />
deglaciated terrain; arrow on lower right points N. (d) Topographic map section (100 m contour interval) of the pass region showing<br />
glacial margin positions at the ca. 1850–1900 LIA maximum (blue), 1931 (cyan), 1962 (green), 1980 (gold) and 2005 (red). Glacial coverage<br />
in 2005 is shaded light blue. 1-km UTM grid is overlaid for reference [Photo credit for (a): Negative No. O-103 Photo: Shippee–Johnson<br />
Collection. Department of Library Services, American Museum Natural History (AMNH)].<br />
r 2006 The Authors<br />
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FROG MIGRATION AND DEGLACIATION 291<br />
8480<br />
8479<br />
8478<br />
8477<br />
8476<br />
8475<br />
Landscape and biotic changes are both strongly evident<br />
in the watershed of Laguna Sibinacocha (13.851S,<br />
71.051W; 4900 m m.s.l., 33 km 2 ), the largest high-alpine<br />
lake in the Andes, and a principal source to the<br />
Urubamba tributary of the Amazon River. A 5400 m<br />
pass 5 km NNW of Lake Sibinacocha was thickly icebound<br />
when first photographed in 1931, but by 2005,<br />
deglaciation had exposed much of the rock substrate<br />
leading to the pass summit (Fig. 1a and b). The glacier<br />
change analysis reveals an ice-free corridor across the<br />
pass became established around 1980, and by 2005 had<br />
expanded to 238 m wide (measured in the field by<br />
Global Positioning System, GPS), an average rate of<br />
9.52 m yr 1 (Fig. 1c and d). Thus, an ecological corridor<br />
exists today between watershed habitats previously
292 T. A. SEIMON et al.<br />
N<br />
Ausangate, 6372 m<br />
Chillca<br />
0260<br />
A1<br />
Rio Chillcamayo<br />
A2<br />
Rio Jampamayo<br />
km<br />
0 4<br />
0264<br />
Uyuni, 4422 m<br />
5960 m<br />
0268<br />
Quebrada Killita<br />
6093 m<br />
segregated by an ice barrier for centuries, perhaps<br />
millennia.<br />
We studied anuran populations at six locations (sites<br />
A–F) above 4400 m within and close to the Sibinacocha<br />
watershed, including three (sites D–F) within the recently<br />
deglaciated terrain above 5244 m north of Lake<br />
Sibinacocha (Fig. 1c and d, and Fig. 2). Three species of<br />
three genera were identified: Pleurodema marmorata, Bufo<br />
spinulosus, and Telmatobius marmoratus. Site D, a cluster<br />
of tarns at 5244 m within the LIA moraine harbored all<br />
three species, but in adjacent water bodies there was a<br />
considerable variation in relative species abundance.<br />
Each species had 100% representation in one of the five<br />
ponds surveyed, while the other two ponds showed<br />
cohabitation by P. marmorata and T. marmoratus (Fig. 3a<br />
and b). The LIA moraine abruptly delimits sparsely<br />
vegetated terrain on its uphill side from more biodiverse<br />
alpine habitat just meters away. The area containing the<br />
ponds exhibits scattered lichen cover on rocks (o5%)<br />
B<br />
Condor Pass, 5027m<br />
Rio Chuamayu<br />
F<br />
GLORIA<br />
5812 m<br />
5348 m<br />
5360–5400 m<br />
E<br />
Quebrada Puca Orjo<br />
D<br />
5244 m<br />
C<br />
4900 m<br />
Laguna Sibinacocha<br />
Fig. 2 Location of anuran sampling sites A–F in the Cordillera Vilcanota of southern Peru. Glaciers are shown in light grey with<br />
mountain summits marked by triangles. Sites A–F are circled. The Global Research Initiative in Alpine Areas (GLORIA) site and villages<br />
of Uyuni and Chillca are shown. The dashed box indicates the domain of Fig. 1d.<br />
0272<br />
0276<br />
0280<br />
8480<br />
8476<br />
8472<br />
8468<br />
8464<br />
and patchy vascular plant growth ( 12 species). Outside<br />
the LIA boundary, over 39 species of lichens and bryophytes<br />
cover 75–90% of available rock surfaces, and over<br />
54 species of vascular plants have been recorded (see<br />
‘Materials and methods’) (Halloy et al., 2005). The ponds<br />
at site D are evident below the retreating ice margin in<br />
1931 aerial photographs, so presumably formed relatively<br />
soon after the onset of ice recession, estimated<br />
between 1850 and 1900 (Fig. 3c). The ponds are perennial,<br />
being sustained by snowfall and glacial melt<br />
throughout the year, and appear to exist today in a<br />
near-pristine natural state. Ponds and their margins<br />
have been colonized by Distichia muscoides (cushion<br />
bogs) and aquatic Myriophyllum and Potamogeton.<br />
Higher still than site D are much more recently<br />
developed ponds at sites E and F (Fig. 4a). The ice<br />
recession analysis shown in Fig. 1d indicate that deglaciation<br />
of sites E1–5 (5369–5376 m) occurred between<br />
1931 and 1962, and sites E6 and E7 (5381–5400 m) within<br />
r 2006 The Authors<br />
Journal compilation r 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Global Change Biology, 13, 288–299
N<br />
(a) (b)<br />
(c)<br />
Pond 6<br />
n = 45<br />
Pond 5<br />
n = 16<br />
Pond 3<br />
n = 45<br />
Pond 2<br />
n = 20<br />
Pond 1<br />
n = 50<br />
the last 10 years. Site F (5348 m) developed within the<br />
past 35–40 years (Fig. 4b and c). In March 2005, Pleurodema<br />
tadpoles and adults were found in both seasonal<br />
and permanent ponds surveyed within the pass corridor<br />
at sites E and F (Fig. 4d–f). Diurnal warming had<br />
melted nocturnal ice cover by the time of observation<br />
(1200–1300 local time). Tadpoles were observed in<br />
dense clusters of up to 950 50 individuals, mostly in<br />
1<br />
3<br />
2<br />
5<br />
6<br />
2005 Survey at Site D<br />
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%<br />
Bufo Telmatobius Pleurodema<br />
Fig. 3 Three species of anurans inhabiting permanent ponds in deglaciated terrain (5244 m). (a) Aerial view on 15 March 2005 of high<br />
ponds at site D identified by number. Dotted line represents 42.2 m. (b) Relative abundances of tadpole species within individual ponds<br />
at site D during the wet season of 2005. Percentages are derived from the number of tadpoles observed/survey hour (n 5 individuals<br />
counted). (c) Cropped section of 1931 air photo showing ponds at site D (5244 m, solid arrow) below receding ice margin. Margin of the<br />
LIA maximum is indicated (dotted arrow); view is looking N. [Negative No. O-86 Photo: Shippee–Johnson Collection. Department of<br />
Library Services, AMNH].<br />
r 2006 The Authors<br />
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FROG MIGRATION AND DEGLACIATION 293<br />
1931<br />
water of 1–2 cm depth, where temperatures ranged<br />
from 18.2 1C in E4, to 22.2 1C in E2 (Fig. 4e and f). These<br />
findings of recently established anuran populations are<br />
consistent with our surveys on the vigorous colonization<br />
by plants such as Senecio graveolens, Calamagrostis<br />
spp., Ephedra rupestris, and Valeriana cf. nivalis, recorded<br />
at elevations of 5400–5513 m within areas of recent<br />
glacial recession (data not shown).
294 T. A. SEIMON et al.<br />
(a) (d)<br />
(b)<br />
(c)<br />
E 1-5, 5369 m<br />
1970<br />
2003<br />
E 6, 5381 m<br />
E 7, 5400 m<br />
F , 5348 m<br />
Repeated population surveys at Sites A2 and D1<br />
revealed a significant reduction in T. marmoratus tadpoles<br />
from August 2003 to July 2004 at both sites (Fig.<br />
5a). Adult Telmatobius were present at A2 in July 2002,<br />
but were not found on subsequent visits (not shown).<br />
At site D1, a 90% decrease in the number of live postmetamorphic<br />
Telmatobius was observed from August<br />
2003 to July 2004 (Fig. 5b). No tadpoles were recorded<br />
(e)<br />
(f)<br />
Fig. 4 Sites within recently deglaciated terrain above 5300 m with the highest anuran communities. (a) Near-vertical aerial perspective<br />
of high pass in March 2005. The locations of the seasonal ponds (sites E1–7) and perennial pond (site F) are circled. Minimum width of<br />
the ice-free corridor is 238 m. (b) Pond at site F (circled) in 1970 emerging from disintegrating ice field [photo by J. Ricker]. (c) Repeat of<br />
1970 image from August 14, 2003 showing site F (circled), marked glacial recession, and upward advance of vegetation. (d) Seasonal<br />
pond (site E7) on the pass summit at 5400 m, the highest site where Pleurodema tadpoles were found (inset) Photos: March 20, 2005.<br />
Receding glacier in the background is 45 m from the pond; Senecio graveolens is also pictured (lower right). (e) Pleurodema tadpole cluster<br />
(black area, 950 50 individuals) observed in a 1m 2 area of site E1 (5369 m). (f) Enlargement of area indicated by small rectangle in (e)<br />
showing tadpoles clustering in 1–2 cm of water.<br />
in 2004 when 24 dead adult frogs were found within<br />
4 survey hours (6 h 1 ), indicating a recent die-off, and<br />
consistent with the observed absence of breeding.<br />
Reports from local highland inhabitants suggested<br />
that anuran populations had been disappearing rapidly.<br />
As Bd has been linked to the rapid decline of amphibian<br />
populations worldwide and catastrophic loss of amphibian<br />
biodiversity (Daszak et al., 1999, 2003; La Marca<br />
r 2006 The Authors<br />
Journal compilation r 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Global Change Biology, 13, 288–299
(a)<br />
4<br />
3.5<br />
3<br />
2.5<br />
2<br />
1.5<br />
1<br />
0.5<br />
0<br />
Tadpoles / survey hour<br />
(c)<br />
Telmatobius<br />
Pleurodema<br />
A1/A2<br />
2002: 3/4<br />
2003: 2/7<br />
B<br />
_<br />
2003: 1/4<br />
Site A2<br />
Site D1<br />
August -2003 July-2004 August-2003 July-2004<br />
C<br />
2003: 1/2<br />
Year:# individuals positive / # individuals tested<br />
(d) (e)<br />
(f)<br />
s<br />
s<br />
Sp<br />
E<br />
z<br />
FROG MIGRATION AND DEGLACIATION 295<br />
_<br />
(b)<br />
Individuals / survey hour<br />
7.0<br />
6.0<br />
5.0<br />
4.0<br />
3.0<br />
2.0<br />
1.0<br />
0.0<br />
D<br />
2003: 1/11<br />
(g)<br />
Live postmetamorphosis<br />
Dead postmetamorphosis<br />
Live tadpoles<br />
_<br />
E<br />
_<br />
_<br />
F<br />
_<br />
2005: 1/2<br />
Fig. 5 Pathogenic Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) afflicting high-<strong>Andean</strong> Telmatobius and Pleurodema communities. (a) Comparison of<br />
Telmatobius tadpole populations recorded during the dry seasons of 2003 and 2004 at sites A2 and D1. (b) Numbers of postmetamorphic live<br />
Telmatobius, post-metamorphic dead Telmatobius, andTelmatobius tadpoles are compared between dry seasons 2003 vs. 2004 at site D1. (c)<br />
Summary of the Bd results for sites A–F of Pleurodema and Telmatobius. Specimens that tested positive from sites A–F are scored for infectivity<br />
in Table 1. (d) Histological hematoxylin and eosin stained section from the ventral hindlimb skin of Telmatobius marmoratus (2003 site D1). The<br />
majority of the sporangia (s) within the stratum corneum are empty. Significant hyperkeratosis (three to five cell layers) is evident in the<br />
epithelial layer, E. Scale bar represents 25 mm.(e)PhotographofhealthyadultfrogofthespeciesT. marmoratus collected at site D1 in 2003. (f)<br />
Histological hematoxylin and eosin stained section from the ventral hindlimb skin of Pleurodema marmorata (2003 site B). Lesion displays light<br />
hyperkeratosis (1–2 cell layers) and is focal. Zoospores (z) are evident in the majority of sporangia identifiable as small dark basophilic<br />
masses, some divided by a septum (sp). Scale bar represents 25 mm. (g) Adult P. marmorata that tested positive for Bd shown in (f).<br />
r 2006 The Authors<br />
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296 T. A. SEIMON et al.<br />
Table 1 Results for Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis positive specimens collected at sites A–F<br />
Year and location Species Infectivity Signs of illness<br />
2003 Site A1 Pleurodema marmorata 2.5 Healthy and active<br />
2003 Site A1 P. marmorata 0.6 Healthy and active<br />
2002 Site A2 Telmatobius marmoratus 2.4 Lethargic<br />
2002 Site A2 T. marmoratus Not determined Dead<br />
2002 Site A2 T. marmoratus Not determined Active<br />
2003 Site B P. marmorata 0.2 Healthy and active<br />
2003 Site C T. marmoratus 0.8 Irregular spotting<br />
2003 Site D T. marmoratus 1.3 Signs of Red-leg/blood in hindlimbs under skin<br />
2005 Site F P. marmorata Not determined Healthy and active<br />
Increased severity of infection between individuals is indicated by the higher infectivity score (see ‘Materials and methods’).<br />
Samples labelled ‘not determined’ could not be scored due to poor tissue preservation, insufficient material for microscopic<br />
examination, or samples were analyzed by polymerase chain reaction analysis.<br />
et al., 2005; Lips et al., 2005, 2006), we tested for the<br />
presence of this fungus at our six study sites. We<br />
analyzed skin samples from specimens collected in<br />
2002 (Seimon et al., 2005) and 2003 at sites A–D, and<br />
skin swabs from uncollected specimens at sites E and F<br />
in July 2005; results are summarized in Fig. 5c. Dead<br />
specimens found in July of 2004 were not tested for Bd<br />
as these specimens had been decomposing for at least<br />
several days, and perhaps weeks, before collection. Two<br />
species tested positive for Bd: P. marmorata and<br />
T. marmoratus (Fig. 5d–g). We did not find any evidence<br />
of Bd in B. spinulosus (N 5 2). The fungus was found to<br />
be present at five sites, including sites D and F within<br />
recently deglaciated terrain. No anurans tested positive<br />
at the highest site, site E, in 2005. All Pleurodema specimens<br />
collected were energetic and did not exhibit signs<br />
of sloughing skin, a clinical sign of chytridiomycosis. In<br />
contrast, Telmatobius specimens collected exhibited<br />
characteristics consistent with clinical and pathological<br />
signs of fatal chytridiomycosis in captive and wild<br />
caught amphibians (Pessier et al., 1999; Nichols et al.,<br />
2001), including: lethargy upon handling; had more<br />
marked hyperplasia of the keratinaceous layer (Fig. 5d<br />
and f) and more intense infection (i.e. greater numbers<br />
of fungal sporangia scored for infectivity). A single<br />
specimen was found dead. These results are summarized<br />
in Table 1.<br />
Discussion<br />
Rapid deglaciation over recent decades associated with<br />
strong regional warming has exposed new terrain that<br />
is now suitable for anurans, whereas before the 20th<br />
century the ice advances of the LIA had depressed the<br />
elevational limit of potential habitat. Our findings on<br />
anuran distributions are consistent with a broader<br />
pattern of ecological succession in the <strong>Andean</strong> region<br />
and worldwide, where species’ ranges have expanded<br />
vertically in response to warmer temperatures in highalpine<br />
zones (Parmesan & Yohe, 2003; Halloy et al.,<br />
2005). At lower elevations in Ecuador, recent observations<br />
of anuran communities have also identified new<br />
records in elevational range of Eleutherodactylus and<br />
Hyla species (Bustamante et al., 2005). Our observations<br />
provide the first direct evidence that anurans are now<br />
colonizing terrain exposed by recent deglaciation at the<br />
upper limits of the biome. Furthermore, glacial recession<br />
in the Cordillera Vilcanota has opened a direct<br />
ecological corridor within the past 25 years between<br />
watershed habitats previously segregated by ice. The<br />
opening of this corridor may have long-term ecological<br />
consequences, such as distributional overlap of species,<br />
which may have genetically diverged, or facilitation of<br />
the spread of chytridiomycosis through host-species<br />
colonization, and is the subject of our future studies.<br />
Our observations represent a new elevation record for<br />
amphibian species, exceeding the unsubstantiated account<br />
of 5200 m purported for Scutiger alticola in Tibet<br />
(Swan, 1990). In Latin America, records of up to 4800 m<br />
have been found recently in Atelopus species (La Marca<br />
et al., 2005); up to 5000 m for Pleurodema, up to 4500 m<br />
for Bufo, and up to 5000 m, for Telmatobius (Pefaur &<br />
Duellman, 1980; Diaz-Páez & Ortiz, 2003).<br />
Our observations indicate that Pleurodema, Bufo, and<br />
Telmatobius have colonized ponds at 5244 m within the<br />
deglaciated area, while Pleurodema has colonized newly<br />
formed ponds at even higher elevations, to 5400 m<br />
within the last 10 years. To survive at such elevations<br />
these species must possess adaptations to extreme environmental<br />
conditions, which include the hypoxic lowpressure<br />
of the mid-troposphere ( 52% of mean sea<br />
level pressure at 5400 m), intense solar radiation<br />
(1000 W m 2 ; Hastenrath, 1978), low absolute humidity,<br />
diurnal freeze–thaw cycles, and occasional deep snow<br />
r 2006 The Authors<br />
Journal compilation r 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Global Change Biology, 13, 288–299
cover that can persist for several weeks. Although direct<br />
measurements for atmospheric temperatures are not<br />
available from our field sites, during 2002 soil surface<br />
temperatures recorded at 5200 m at a site 160 m south of<br />
site D showed minima as low as 13.5 1C, and diurnal<br />
variability of up to 30 1C (data not shown). These results<br />
suggest that these anurans have capabilities for surviving<br />
frost. In line with these observations, B. spinulosus<br />
has been shown to survive body temperatures as low as<br />
5 1C with no noticeable impact on vitality (Halloy &<br />
Gonzalez, 1993). This adaptation has also been documented<br />
in lizards such as Liolaemus huacahuasicus in<br />
Argentina (Halloy & Gonzalez, 1993), of a genus we<br />
have observed to 5450 m in the Sibinacocha area. The<br />
low-pressure environment at high-altitudes appears to<br />
enhance the freezing tolerance of these animals (Halloy<br />
& Gonzalez, 1993).<br />
The upward range extension of amphibians parallels<br />
the upward shifts of other organisms. We have documented<br />
upward expansion of plants, which serve as<br />
anuran habitats and food sources, and insects, which act<br />
as pollinators for plants and food for amphibians.<br />
Glacial recession and snow melt also provide water<br />
sources for the development of year-round and seasonal<br />
ponds, terrestrial and aquatic vegetative growth, aquatic<br />
microorganisms, amphipods, diptera, butterflies,<br />
bivalves, and insect larvae, and a drinking source for<br />
mammals such as vicuña (Vicugna vicugna), viscacha<br />
(Lagidium spp.), fox (Dusicyon spp.), puma (Felis<br />
concolor), and other cats (Oncifelis spp. or Oreailurus<br />
spp.).<br />
We show chytridiomycosis in anuran communities at<br />
much higher elevations in the Neotropics than previously<br />
recognized. The existence of severe Bd infections<br />
in amphibians at site D1 in August 2003 correlates<br />
with the subsequent die-off observed there in July 2004,<br />
and the apparent disappearance of both post-metamorphic<br />
and pre-metamorphic populations of T. marmoratus<br />
by March 2005. As our quantitative surveys<br />
span less than 2 years we cannot rule out the possibility<br />
that the disappearance of Telmatobius at sites D1 and A2<br />
are part of an interannual fluctuation within these<br />
populations. However, given the high degree of infectivity<br />
observed in histological sections, the abundance<br />
of dead and sick specimens collected within the last 2<br />
years, of which several were Bd positive, and that<br />
Telmatobius species are disappearing in Ecuador (Merino-Viteri<br />
et al., 2005) and Bolivia (Ergueta & Morales,<br />
1996), we believe it likely that T. marmoratus is in decline<br />
due to chytridiomycosis. In contrast to Telmatobius,<br />
Pleurodema populations appear to be relatively robust<br />
at the highest elevations, and the Bd-positive specimens<br />
examined did not appear sick. Furthermore, Pleurodema<br />
also tested positive on the more isolated north side of<br />
r 2006 The Authors<br />
Journal compilation r 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Global Change Biology, 13, 288–299<br />
FROG MIGRATION AND DEGLACIATION 297<br />
the pass at site F, which deglaciated 35–40 years ago,<br />
raising important questions on how Bd arrived at this<br />
remote location that should be addressed in future<br />
research. The Sibinacocha watershed is home to several<br />
species of waterfowl, mammals (described above), and<br />
domesticated animals such as alpaca and llama that<br />
travel through the area, and thus could potentially<br />
facilitate the spread of Bd. Further studies will also be<br />
needed to ascertain whether Pleurodema exhibits an<br />
innate capacity to survive chytridiomycosis, and is<br />
therefore a potential vector for this disease.<br />
The discovery of chytridiomycosis in a high alpine<br />
setting in the Andes is at odds with elevational (much<br />
higher) and climatic (much colder) characteristics of<br />
environments where chytridiomycosis have been reported<br />
elsewhere in the Neotropics. Niche modeling<br />
analysis based on observations from 44 localities predicts<br />
the most likely occurrence of Bd in the Andes is<br />
above 1000 m, with a median elevation for pathogenic<br />
Bd found at 1714 m and maximum at 4112 m (Ron,<br />
2005). Our observations demonstrate that Bd is occupying<br />
an area of the biome that was previously unstudied.<br />
By confirming the presence of chytridiomycosis 1236 m<br />
above the previously reported maximum, our findings<br />
also significantly increase the spatial domain of potential<br />
pathogenicity because much of the central <strong>Andean</strong><br />
region, which includes the vast Altiplano plateau, lies<br />
within this elevational range. Using linear regression<br />
analysis, Pounds et al. (2006) predicted that above<br />
3500 m in the Neotropics, daily minimum and maximum<br />
temperatures would fall well below the optimal<br />
temperature range of 17–25 1C for Bd growth, and<br />
become increasingly inhospitable at higher elevations.<br />
However, our results clearly indicate that neither temperatures<br />
far below freezing nor large diurnal variations<br />
are limiting factors for Bd pathogenicity. Although<br />
atmospheric temperature means in tropical alpine<br />
zones fall well below the window of optimal Bd growth,<br />
our observations suggest that intense solar heating<br />
during midday hours temporarily raises water temperatures<br />
in shallow ponds to within this range, even<br />
at extreme elevations around glacial margins above<br />
5300 m. Thus, solar heating may provide a thermal<br />
opportunity to allow Bd to survive and grow in these<br />
environments: this conjecture could be investigated in a<br />
controlled laboratory setting. The infectivity of the Bd<br />
within these extreme environments suggests that frogs<br />
responding to climatic warming are unlikely to escape<br />
this pathogen by moving to higher, colder, and more<br />
pristine areas. Thus, it is likely that Bd may drive<br />
changes in species assemblages in the high Andes by<br />
promoting susceptible species loss – as already seen<br />
with the disappearance of three species of Telmatobius in<br />
Ecuador (Merino-Viteri et al., 2005) – or by promoting
298 T. A. SEIMON et al.<br />
the expansion of resistant species. There are 55 known<br />
species of Telmatobius (De la Riva et al., 2005), yet given<br />
the efficiency of pathogenic Bd to propagate, our results<br />
suggest an ominous future for the sustainability of this<br />
genus. Furthermore, this study offers an example of<br />
how the expansion of biota into previously unsuitable<br />
habitat can bring with it the introduction of new diseases.<br />
In this case it is chytridiomycosis, however, with<br />
other fauna it may encompass other pathogens of<br />
unknown host ranges and impacts.<br />
Acknowledgements<br />
We gratefully acknowledge the contributions of our teams of<br />
local arrieros, Aleyda Curo, Julia Rosen, and Karina Yager for<br />
field support, Alfredo Tupayachi for help with plant identifications,<br />
Edgar Lehr and Laszlo Nagy for comments on the manuscript,<br />
the Department of Library Services at the AMNH, New<br />
York, for assistance with the Shippee–Johnson image collection,<br />
Carsten Peter and National Geographic Magazine, and John<br />
Ricker for 1970 images. This study was supported by a Columbia<br />
University-Lamont Climate Center grant, a NASA-ESS Fellowship<br />
to A.S., a National Science Foundation IRCEB grant (DEB-<br />
02133851) to P.D., and by core funding to the Consortium<br />
for Conservation Medicine from the V. Kann Rasmussen<br />
Foundation.<br />
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Climate Change, 59, 75–99.
NEAR-SURFACE FACETED CRYSTALS AND AVALANCHE DYNAMICS IN HIGH-ELEVATION,<br />
TROPICAL MOUNTAINS OF BOLIVIA<br />
Douglas Hardy 1 , Mark W. Williams 2 , and Carlos Escobar 3<br />
1 Climate Systems Research Center and Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst MA<br />
2 Department of <strong>Geography</strong> and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder CO<br />
3 Bolivian Association of <strong>Mountain</strong> Guides, La Paz, Bolivia<br />
ABSTRACT: The importance of near-surface faceted crystals in forming weak layers associated with snow<br />
avalanches has recently received greater attention. However, there is still much to be learned concerning the<br />
formation and growth of these crystal types, their geographical extent, and related avalanche activity. Here we report<br />
on a spatially extensive avalanche cycle that occurred during late September 1999 at high-elevations in the Bolivian<br />
Andes, claiming two lives. Climbers released one slide at about 5,300 m in the Cordillera Apolobamba (on El<br />
Presidente), and four days later snow scientists servicing a high-elevation meteorological site triggered another at<br />
6,300 m near the summit of Illimani (Cordillera Real). Both slab avalanches followed lateral fracture propagation<br />
through 25-50 cm of relatively new snow; deeper pockets existed due to wind redistribution. Analysis of a snowpit<br />
on Illimani, from a nearby and safe location, showed that the avalanche ran on a thick layer of near-surface faceted<br />
crystals overlying the austral winter dry-season snow surface. Average size of the crystals was 5-7 mm, and<br />
individual crystals exceeded 10 mm in diameter. We evaluate local and regional meteorological information in an<br />
effort to understand what caused the growth of these large crystals and the resultant snowpack instability. Insights<br />
are offered regarding the avalanche hazard due to near-surface faceted crystal growth in high-elevation areas of the<br />
Tropics, where avalanches are not generally recognized as a significant hazard during the climbing season.<br />
KEYWORDS: avalanches, avalanche formation, snow, snow stratigraphy, mountains<br />
1. INTRODUCTION<br />
In late September 1999, climbers at high-elevations<br />
in the Bolivian Andes released at least two slab<br />
avalanches, as snowfall and wind loading onto the dryseason<br />
snow surface led to instability over a large<br />
region. Avalanches are not among the widely<br />
recognized hazards of climbing in Bolivia, because the<br />
climbing season is heavily concentrated in the dry<br />
southern (austral) winter months of May through<br />
September. In the most recent publication on climbing<br />
in Bolivia, Brain (1999) states that “serious accidents<br />
are rare in part because of the consistently stable and<br />
good weather during the climbing season". Avalanches<br />
receive no mention in this climbing guide, consistent<br />
with the opinion of a guide-in-training recently that<br />
“[avalanches] don’t happen in Bolivia” (Arrington,<br />
1999).<br />
On 25 September 1999, two climbers triggered a<br />
slab avalanche at an elevation of 5,200 m on Cerro<br />
Presidente, Cordillera Apolobamba, Bolivia (Table 1).<br />
Two members of the party witnessed the slide but were<br />
not involved. There was one partial burial and one<br />
complete burial, killing both climbers including the<br />
aforementioned Yossi Brain. Four days after the<br />
avalanche on Cerro Presidente, we triggered a slab<br />
release at 6,300 m near the summit of Illimani<br />
(Cordillera Real), while servicing a high-elevation<br />
-----------------------------------------<br />
* Corresponding author address: Douglas R. Hardy,<br />
Dept. of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts,<br />
Amherst MA 01003-5820; tel: 802-649-1829; fax:<br />
413-545-1200; email: dhardy@geo.umass.edu<br />
meteorological station. Both slab avalanches followed<br />
lateral fracture propagation through 25-75 cm of<br />
relatively new snow, with deeper pockets due to wind<br />
redistribution (Table 1). Meteorological, weather, and<br />
snow conditions were similar between Illimani and the<br />
Apolobamba Range where the fatalities occurred.<br />
Table 1. Characteristics of two avalanches in the<br />
Bolivian Andes, September 1999<br />
Cerro<br />
Presidente a<br />
Nevado<br />
Illimani<br />
Date 9-25-99 9-30-99<br />
Time 0830 1700<br />
Elevation (m) 5,200 6,300<br />
Incline (°) 30-40 30-40<br />
Type Slab Slab<br />
Width (m) 100 100<br />
Avalanche Trigger climbers snow scientists<br />
Activity Climbing Climbing<br />
Party size 2 3<br />
Partial Burials 1 0<br />
Complete Burials 1 0<br />
Fatalities 2 0<br />
a For further details see: http://www.csac.org/Incidents/<br />
1999-00/19990925-Bolivia.html
Analysis of a snowpit on Illimani, from a nearby<br />
and safe location, showed that the avalanche ran on<br />
well-developed faceted crystals located just below the<br />
new snow. We evaluate snowpit observations, along<br />
with local and regional meteorological information, in<br />
an effort to understand what caused the growth of these<br />
large crystals and the resultant snowpack instability.<br />
Insights are offered regarding the potential avalanche<br />
hazard in high-elevation areas of the Tropics, where<br />
avalanches are not generally recognized as a significant<br />
hazard during the climbing season.<br />
The growth of near-surface faceted crystals, and<br />
their role in the formation of weak layers within the<br />
snowpack, has recently received attention by Birkeland<br />
et al. (1996, 1998). Furthermore, Birkeland (1998)<br />
proposed a terminology and identified the predominant<br />
processes associated with the formation of weak layers<br />
in mountain snowpacks caused by near-surface faceted<br />
crystals. This work has built upon considerable work<br />
investigation the growth of faceted snow crystals in<br />
response to vapor pressure gradients resulting from<br />
temperature gradients, primarily in basal snowpack<br />
layers (e.g., Akitaya, 1974; Marbouty, 1980; Colbeck,<br />
1982; Sturm and Benson, 1997). Research focusing<br />
upon the growth of faceted crystals close to the surface<br />
has also demonstrated the importance of these<br />
gradients. Armstrong (1985) for example, determined<br />
that faceted crystal growth is initiated when the vapor<br />
pressure gradient exceeds 5 hPa m -1 . Birkeland et al.<br />
(1998) document bi-directional gradients five times<br />
larger, resulting in very rapid growth of near-surface<br />
faceted crystals. In the latter case study, a significant<br />
weak layer formed in less than 48 hours. Of great<br />
importance to the understanding of near-surface faceted<br />
crystal growth at high elevations is the mathematical<br />
treatment of the issue by Colbeck (1989), who<br />
determined that formation could occur due to either<br />
temperature cycling or solar radiation input – but that<br />
“…solar input definitely increases the sub-surface<br />
growth rate”.<br />
2. SITE DESCRIPTION<br />
The University of Massachusetts maintains two<br />
high-elevation meteorological stations near the summits<br />
of Illimani and Sajama in Bolivia (Figure 1), as part of<br />
a project to better understand the climatic signal<br />
recorded by tropical ice cores (Hardy et al., 1998). The<br />
meteorological station on Illimani was not fully<br />
functional in September; we were there to service the<br />
station and collect snow samples. Meteorological<br />
records from Sajama are used in our analysis of the<br />
September avalanche cycle to supplement the Illimani<br />
observations.<br />
Nevado Illimani (6458 m) is the highest peak in the<br />
Cordillera Real (Figure 2). The meteorological station<br />
on Illimani is located approximately 200 m below the<br />
80° W<br />
Illimani<br />
Sajama<br />
Chacaltaya<br />
a<br />
60° W 40° W<br />
10° N<br />
0°<br />
10° S<br />
20° S<br />
Figure 1: Map showing the location of Bolivia,<br />
Nevados Illimani and Sajama, and Chacaltaya. The<br />
University of Massachusetts maintains high-elevation<br />
meteorological stations near the summit of both<br />
mountains.<br />
summit (16°39’ S; 67°47’ W at 6,265 m (20,555 ft)), in<br />
a large bowl oriented to the southwest.<br />
Nevado Sajama is within the Cordillera Occidental,<br />
on the eastern side of the Altiplano (Figure 1). The<br />
meteorological station on Sajama is located about 27 m<br />
below the summit (18°06’ S; 68°53’ W at 6,515 m<br />
(21,376 ft)).<br />
Figure 2: Nevado Illimani as seen from a commercial<br />
airline flight between La Paz, the capital of Bolivia, and<br />
Santa Cruz. An oval on the image, east of the summit,<br />
indicates the 14-day old avalanche path. Illimani (6,458<br />
m) is the highest peak in the Cordillera Real, a massive<br />
mountain with three summits over 20,000 feet, visible<br />
from hundreds of miles out on the Altiplano to the west<br />
and from far out into the Amazon Basin on the east.
The Bolivian Andes experience a marked<br />
seasonality in precipitation, with an extended summer<br />
wet season and a dry winter. The 30-year record<br />
fromChacaltaya, just west of Illimani (Figure 1),<br />
illustrates the pronounced dry period June-August,<br />
when less than 5% of the annual precipitation is<br />
delivered (Figure 3). Precipitation over the entire<br />
Bolivian Altiplano (including Sajama) originates almost<br />
exclusively from the east, and annual totals decrease to<br />
the west of the Cordillera Real.<br />
Monthly Precipitation (mm)<br />
250<br />
200<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
0<br />
oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep<br />
Figure 3: Monthly precipitation at Chacaltaya, Bolivia<br />
(5,220 m), 1967 – 1997. Whisker plot boxes illustrate<br />
the median (line) and enclose the 25 th and 75 th<br />
percentiles. Error bars enclose the 10th and 90th<br />
percentiles, with extremes indicated by circles. Annual<br />
precipitation averaged 560 mm during this period.<br />
Mean annual temperature (MAT) near the Illimani<br />
weather station is –7.6°C, as indicated by the borehole<br />
temperature at 10 m (Zweifel, personal<br />
communication). MAT on Sajama is 3.0°C lower by<br />
our station measurements and by the 10m borehole<br />
temperature (Zagoradnov, personal communication).<br />
3. METHODS<br />
On 30 September 1999 a snowpit was dug and<br />
analyzed in a location adjacent to the avalanche we<br />
initiated on 29 September 1999. We measured snow<br />
properties using standard protocols (e.g., Williams et<br />
al., 1999). We used a 100 cc stainless steel Taylor-<br />
LaChapelle cutter and an electronic scale (± 1g) to<br />
measure snow density. Snowpack temperatures were<br />
measured with 20-cm long dial stem thermometers.<br />
Grain type, size, and snowpack stratigraphy were also<br />
recorded, following the protocols in Colbeck et al.<br />
(1990). The chemical and dust content of individual<br />
strata in the snowpack were also analyzed, providing<br />
additional information on the snowpack history (Hardy<br />
et al., submitted).<br />
Here we analyze the climatological and snow<br />
conditions that led to the avalanche cycle using<br />
information from the high-elevation meteorological<br />
stations on Nevado Illimani and Sajama. For this report,<br />
we emphasize measurements of air temperature and<br />
snow accumulation.<br />
4. RESULTS and DISCUSSION<br />
4.1 Avalanche on Nevado Illimani<br />
We released a slab avalanche near the summit of<br />
Nevado Illimani on 29 September 2000, similar to the<br />
slab release on Cerro Presidente 4 days earlier (Table<br />
1). We were at about 6,300 m on the afternoon of 29<br />
September en route to a weather station on Nevado<br />
Illimani in the Cordillera Real. Snow was well-sintered<br />
and supported steps and front-pointing on the 45-50°<br />
west-facing approach to a saddle below the summit of<br />
Illimani Sur. We began descending from the saddle<br />
below the summit of Illimani Sur to the weather station,<br />
on a very gentle slope of perhaps 10 degrees. As the<br />
slope began to steepen the walking became more<br />
difficult in deepening snow. We started to post-hole<br />
with every step. Twice the snow whoomphed on the<br />
very gradual slope, a phenomena one of us (CE) had<br />
experienced only five times in 13 years of climbing in<br />
Bolivia. We were in a dense white-out at the time,<br />
proceeding toward the meteorological station by<br />
reckoning. Suddenly a larger whoomph (or “firn<br />
quake”) occurred, obviously representing a widespread<br />
collapse of the snowpack. Simultaneously, we actually<br />
heard a fracture propagate to our left, followed by a dull<br />
roar. Visibility was minimal, but a fresh fracture line<br />
was visible in the snowpack underneath our feet and<br />
extending to our left, where we had heard what we<br />
thought was an avalanche release. We retreated back to<br />
the saddle and set up camp, as in the whiteout it was<br />
impossible to assess the danger of additional slides.<br />
Shortly thereafter the clouds thinned and the<br />
avalanche we released became visible (Figure 2) about<br />
200 meters to our left. The slab originated from a<br />
distinct fracture, 1-2 m thick. We estimate the slide path<br />
at 100-200 m in both width and length, although we did<br />
not have time to inspect it more closely. The runout<br />
zone of the avalanche was within 100 m of our<br />
meteorological station and snowpit.<br />
4.2 Snow Accumulation and Snowpit Stratigraphy<br />
Negative sea-surface temperature anomalies in the<br />
central equatorial Pacific (i.e., La Niña) are known to<br />
enhance wet-season precipitation on the Altiplano<br />
(Vuille et al., 2000), and a large La Niña event peaked<br />
during the 1998-99 wet season. At the Illimani weather<br />
station, 240 cm of snow accumulated by early April of<br />
1999, which buried the snow depth sensor. Visits to the<br />
station on 7 April and 17 June revealed no change in<br />
surface height, although without the sensor we have no<br />
record of variability between those dates. The snow<br />
surface on 29 September was 25-30 cm above that of 17<br />
June, representing 270 cm of accumulation since the<br />
previous November.<br />
A 180-cm deep snowpit was dug on 30 September<br />
1999, the day after the avalanche, on a slope angle of
about 10 degrees. Stratigraphic analysis and sample<br />
collection were conducted from about 1300 to 1600 hrs<br />
on that day. Weather was clear, bright, and brisk, with<br />
the sun almost directly overhead. Snow temperatures<br />
were about 0°C in the first 9 cm, then about -3.0°C for<br />
the remainder of the snowpack (Figure 4). Density<br />
generally increased with depth, from about 210 kg m -3<br />
at the snow surface to 410 kg m -3 at a depth of 180 cm,<br />
with the exception of several ice lenses.<br />
9wc<br />
6cl<br />
9sc<br />
6cl<br />
6cl<br />
8il<br />
6cl<br />
4sf<br />
4sf<br />
Density (kg m-3 180<br />
0 300 600 900 -3 0 1 2 3 4 5<br />
) ° C Grain size (mm)<br />
0<br />
20<br />
40<br />
60<br />
80<br />
100<br />
120<br />
140<br />
160<br />
Figure 4: Snowpit profile sampled at 6,300 m on 30<br />
September 1999, near the summit of Nevado Illimani,<br />
Bolivia. Note the presence of near-surface faceted<br />
crystals from 27-64 cm.<br />
The stratigraphy of the snowpit contained some<br />
interesting surprises. Snow grains in the first 19 cm<br />
were rounded, suggesting the presence of some liquid<br />
water and wet snow metamorphism (e.g. Colbeck,<br />
1979). The small grain size of 0.3 mm along with the<br />
absence of polycrystalline grains suggests that<br />
conditions consisted of snow with low water content<br />
and little if any percolation. A thin ice layer at 19-20<br />
cm was consistent with either subsurface melting and<br />
refreezing (e.g., Liston, 1999), or refreezing of draining<br />
meltwater. Snow grains from 20-27 cm were similar to<br />
grains at 0-19 cm, though slightly larger at 0.5 mm in<br />
diameter.<br />
Depth (cm)<br />
Below a depth of 27 cm, the stratigraphy suggested<br />
a different snow environment. Snow grains at a depth of<br />
27-37 cm were heavily faceted. Many of the grains<br />
showed well-developed cups and scroll patterns similar<br />
to kinetic growth or depth hoar grains that develop at or<br />
near the bottom of the snowpack (Colbeck, 1983).<br />
Average grain size was 3-5 mm, with several grains<br />
larger than 10 mm. Dust was visible throughout this<br />
layer, with much higher concentrations in the upper 3<br />
cm of this layer. Sintering was particularly poor in this<br />
layer. The layer from 37-64 cm was similar to the<br />
above layer, with the exception that faceting was<br />
evident but not as well-developed. Grain sizes of 2-4<br />
mm were smaller than in the layer above. There was no<br />
visible dust in this layer. A well-bonded ice lens was at<br />
65-73 cm, composed of melt-freeze grains frozen<br />
together.<br />
The avalanche that we triggered appeared to run on<br />
the faceted grains located at a depth of 27-37 cm in our<br />
snowpit. We believe that the faceted grains we report<br />
for layers from 27-64 cm are near-surface faceted<br />
crystals, formed by the process Birkeland (1998) terms<br />
diurnal re-crystalization. To our knowledge, these nearsurface<br />
faceted grains are the largest ever reported,<br />
either in the avalanche literature or informally among<br />
avalanche professionals. Their presence suggests<br />
unique meteorological conditions at high elevations in<br />
the tropical Andes.<br />
4.3 Meteorological Conditions<br />
4.3.1 Precipitation<br />
Direct measurements of precipitation on Illimani<br />
are not available through the 1999 dry season. From<br />
observations, we know that 25-30 cm of snow<br />
accumulated sometime between 17 June and 29<br />
September, and snowpit evidence indicates that this<br />
increment fell within days to weeks prior to 29<br />
September. Such winter precipitation events have been<br />
recorded in prior years on Illimani, including two<br />
snowfalls in August 1997 (19 and 12 cm), 15 cm in<br />
September of that year, and one 10 cm event during<br />
June of 1998.<br />
Bolivian station data show that a widespread<br />
regional event occurred on 17 September 1999 (7.4 to<br />
7.9 mm at La Paz, Cochabamba, and Oruro). On<br />
Sajama, after a prolonged period without precipitation,<br />
19 cm of accumulation was recorded on 18-19<br />
September and 23 cm on 28-30 September. These are<br />
relatively large events for the more arid Sajama, and the<br />
accumulation was not blown away as typically occurs<br />
with winter precipitation events on Sajama.<br />
One additional piece of indirect evidence for the<br />
timing of precipitation comes from Illimani. During the<br />
dry (low humidity) evening of 22-23 September, snow<br />
was evidently drifting in response to wind speeds of 4-7
Table 2. Mean monthly temperatures and incoming solar radiation (K-down) on Sajama, June - September 1999.<br />
Minimum Maximum Daily Maximum<br />
Aspirated Daily Aspirated Daily Temperature Daily<br />
T<br />
T<br />
Range<br />
K-down<br />
Month (deg. C) (deg. C) (deg. C) (W m -2 )<br />
June 1999 -16.6 -9.6 7.0 817<br />
July 1999 -16.6 -10.4 6.3 763<br />
August 1999 -15.9 -8.1 7.8 861<br />
September 1999 -15.2 -6.9 8.3 950<br />
m s -1 , because the reflected solar radiometer was buried<br />
beneath the snow surface on 23 September. Indeed, for<br />
the two week period prior to the Illimani avalanche,<br />
winds were consistently from the northwest (blowing<br />
downslope) at speeds varying between 2 and 8 m s -1 . In<br />
summary, considerable snowfall apparently occurred<br />
within the period 8-12 days prior to avalanches in the<br />
Cordilleras Apolobamba and Real, accompanied by<br />
sufficient wind to cause redistribution of the new snow.<br />
4.3.2 Solar radiation and air temperature<br />
Solar radiation receipt remains high during the<br />
austral winter at high elevations in the Andes, with<br />
daily irradiance maxima typically greater than 800 W<br />
m -2 (Hardy et al., 1998). However, the mean<br />
temperature on Sajama during the winter is only –<br />
12.8°C (1996-99), due to the low air density at high<br />
elevation. In contrast to mid-latitude mountain<br />
environments, the average diurnal temperature range of<br />
7.8°C is larger than the annual temperature range.<br />
Monthly measurements on Sajama from June through<br />
September 1999 show increasing solar radiation, and<br />
increases in both mean air temperature and the daily<br />
temperature range (Table 2). Illimani temperatures are<br />
generally slightly higher, due to the 250 m elevation<br />
difference and higher humidity, but unavailable for this<br />
time period.<br />
5. SUMMARY<br />
The near-surface faceted crystals observed on<br />
Illimani in September 1999 appear to be both better<br />
developed (i.e., large) and form a thicker layer than any<br />
reported previously. While the best-developed grains<br />
were in a layer 10 cm thick, those in the 27 cm thick<br />
layer below were also faceted. This thicker layer may<br />
have been briefly exposed to the surface prior to the<br />
additional 10 cm of accumulation, however, the lack of<br />
dust in this layer suggests that the faceting occurred<br />
after the layer was buried (i.e., 10 – 37 cm deep).<br />
Conditions unique to high-elevation tropical mountains<br />
favoring the growth of near-surface faceted crystals<br />
include: (1) higher input of incoming solar radiation,<br />
due to less atmosphere; (2) greater absorption of solar<br />
radiation at the snow surface during the austral winter,<br />
due to the relatively high dust concentration (enhancing<br />
the temperature gradient); and (3) greater longwave<br />
radiation loss due to rapid cooling of the dry, thin<br />
atmosphere in the evening.<br />
Development of near-surface faceted crystals<br />
during the dry season, at high elevations in the Bolivian<br />
Andes, may present a greater avalanche hazard than is<br />
generally recognized. Two documented incidents in<br />
September 1999 occurred when ‘early season’ snow<br />
was redistributed onto leeward slopes, burying a thick,<br />
well-developed layer of near-surface faceted crystals.<br />
This layer probably formed through the process<br />
Birkeland (1998) termed diurnal recrystallization. In<br />
this region of the Andes, our results suggest that ideal<br />
meteorological conditions for faceted crystal growth<br />
persist through the entire climbing season of June-<br />
August, and probably occur most years in highelevation<br />
areas. Indeed, we have observed buried nearsurface<br />
faceted crystals within a previous years<br />
snowpack on Sajama. Regional precipitation decidedly<br />
increases during September, and relatively large<br />
snowfall events are not uncommon in our short record<br />
from Illimani. Avalanches may occur when synoptic<br />
weather conditions result in dry-season snow events<br />
and high wind speeds that produce a slab over this weak<br />
layer. La Nina conditions, such as during 1998-99, may<br />
favor this situation. Although the resulting instability<br />
should be relatively easy to recognize due to audible<br />
collapse upon loading (whoomphing), climbers must be<br />
alert to the potential threat. Currently, climbers and<br />
other users of the Bolivian high-mountain environment<br />
are not expecting to encounter avalanche hazards<br />
during the climbing season, and many have little<br />
experience in evaluating avalanche dangers.<br />
6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS<br />
Funding was provided by a NOAA Global<br />
Programs Office grant to the University of<br />
Massachusetts, a Fulbright Fellowship and Faculty<br />
Fellowship from the University of Colorado-Boulder<br />
(MW), as well as NSF Hydrology and International<br />
Programs. Thanks to Karl Birkeland for initially
stimulating our interest in near-surface faceted crystals<br />
at high elevations. We are grateful for excellent<br />
logistical support from Nuevo Horizontes in La Paz.<br />
This work has also benefited greatly from the on-going<br />
involvement of Carsten Braun and Mathias Vuille at the<br />
University of Massachusetts.<br />
7. REFERENCES<br />
Akitaya, E., 1974: Studies on depth hoar. Contr. Inst.<br />
Low Temp. Sci., A-26, 1-67.<br />
Armstrong, R.L., 1985: Metamorphism in a<br />
subfreezing, seasonal snow cover: The role of<br />
thermal and vapor pressure conditions. Ph.D<br />
dissertation, Dept. Geogr., University of Colorado,<br />
Boulder, CO.<br />
Arrington, V., 1999: Tragedy strikes in the<br />
Apolobamba. Bolivian Times, 7 October 1999, see<br />
also: http://www.latinwide.com/boltimes/<br />
edit9940/tapa.htm<br />
Birkeland, K.W., R.F. Johnson, and D.S. Schmidt,<br />
1996: Near-surface faceted crystals: Conditions<br />
necessary for growth and contribution to avalanche<br />
formation, southwest Montana, U.S.A. Proc. 1996<br />
Int. Snow Sci. Wksp., Banff, Alberta, Canada, 75-<br />
79.<br />
Birkeland, K.W., R.F. Johnson, and D.S. Schmidt,<br />
1998: Near-surface faceted crystals formed by<br />
diurnal recrystallization: A case study of weak<br />
layer formation in the mountain snowpack and its<br />
contribution to snow avalanches. Arctic Alpine<br />
Res., 30, 200-204.<br />
Birkeland, K.W., 1998: Terminology and predominant<br />
processes associated with the formation of weak<br />
layers of near-surface faceted crystals in the<br />
mountain snowpack. Arctic Alpine Res., 30, 193-<br />
199.<br />
Brain, Y., 1999: Bolivia: A Climbing Guide. The<br />
<strong>Mountain</strong>eers, Seattle, 224p.<br />
Colbeck, S.C., 1979: Grain clusters in wet snow. J.<br />
Colloid Interface Sci., 72, 371-384.<br />
Colbeck, S.C., 1982: Growth of faceted crystals in a<br />
snow cover. CRREL Rep. 82-29, U.S. Army Cold<br />
Regions Res. Eng. Lab., Hanover, NH.<br />
Colbeck, S.C., 1983: Theory of metamorphism of dry<br />
snow. J. Geophys. Res., 88, 5475-5482.<br />
Colbeck, S.C., 1989: Snow-crystal growth with<br />
varying surface temperatures and radiation<br />
penetration. J. Glaciol., v. 35, 23-29.<br />
Colbeck, S. C., E. Akitaya, R. Armstrong, H. Gubler, J.<br />
Lafeuille, K. Lied, D. McClung, and E. Morris,<br />
1990: The international classification for seasonal<br />
snow on the ground, pp. 1-23, National Snow and<br />
Ice Data Center, Boulder,CO.<br />
Hardy, D.R., M. Vuille, C. Braun, F. Keimig, and R.S.<br />
Bradley, 1998: Annual and daily meteorological<br />
cycles at high altitude on a tropical mountain. Bull.<br />
Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 1899-1913.<br />
Hardy, D.R., M.W. Williams, and C. Escobar: Nearsurface<br />
faceted crystals, avalanche dynamics and<br />
climate in high-elevation tropical mountains of<br />
Bolivia. submitted to Cold Regions Sci. and Tech.,<br />
Oct. 2000.<br />
Liston, G.E., J. -G. Winther, O. Bruland, H. Elvehøy,<br />
and K. Sand, 1999: Below-surface ice melt on the<br />
coastal Antarctic ice sheet. J. Glaciol, 45, 273-<br />
285.<br />
Marbouty, D., 1980: An experimental study of<br />
temperature-gradient metamorphism. J. Glaciol.,<br />
26, 303-312.<br />
Sturm, M. and C.S. Benson, 1997: Vapor transport,<br />
grain growth, and depth-hoar development in the<br />
subarctic snow. J. Glaciol., 43, 42-59.<br />
Vuille, M., R.S. Bradley, and F. Keimig, F., 2000:<br />
Interannual climate variability in the Central Andes<br />
and its relation to tropical Pacific and Atlantic<br />
forcing. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 12,447-12,460.<br />
Williams, M.W., D. Cline, M. Hartman, and T.<br />
Bardsley, 1999: Data for snowmelt model<br />
development, calibration, and verification at an<br />
alpine site, Colorado Front Range. Water Resour.<br />
Res., 35, 3205-3209.
Global Change Biology (2010) 16, 3223–3232, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02203.x<br />
Nonlinear climate change and <strong>Andean</strong> feedbacks: an<br />
imminent turning point?<br />
M. B. BUSH, J. A. HANSELMAN 1 and W. D . G O S L I N G 2<br />
Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, 150 W. University Blvd., Melbourne, FL 32901, USA<br />
Abstract<br />
A 370 000-year paleoecological record from Lake Titicaca provides a detailed record of past climate change in which<br />
interglacial periods are seen to have some elements of commonality, but also some key differences. We advance a<br />
conceptual feedback model to account for the observed changes that includes previously ignored lake effects. Today<br />
Lake Titicaca serves to warm the local environment by about 4–5 1C and also to increase rainfall. We observe that as<br />
water levels in the lake are drawn down due to warm, dry, interglacial conditions, there is a possible regional cooling<br />
as the lake effect on local microclimates diminishes. Positive feedback mechanisms promote drying until much of the<br />
lake basin is reduced to salt marsh. Consequently, the usual concept of upslope migration of species with warming<br />
would not be applicable in the Altiplano. If, as projected, the next century brings warmer and drier conditions than<br />
those of today, a tipping point appears to exist within ca. 1–2 1C of current temperatures, where the relatively benign<br />
agricultural conditions of the northern Altiplano would be replaced by inhospitable arid climates. Such a change<br />
would have profound implications for the citizens of the Bolivian capital, La Paz.<br />
Keywords: aridity, charcoal, conservation, fossil pollen, grayscale, Lake Titicaca, positive feedback, warming<br />
Received 21 October 2009; revised version received 16 December 2009 and accepted 17 December 2009<br />
Introduction<br />
For the last 5000 years, inhabitants of the Bolivian<br />
Altiplano have taken advantage of the relatively mild,<br />
moist climate adjacent to Lake Titicaca (Erickson, 1988).<br />
Lying at 3810 m elevation, Lake Titicaca is the world’s<br />
highest great lake and produces a local microclimate or<br />
lake effect that allows cultivation of crops, such as<br />
maize, at unusually high elevations. However, paleoecological<br />
data show that the size of this and other vast<br />
paleolakes of the Altiplano have been volatile, exhibiting<br />
rapid changes in lake level with presumed concomitant<br />
changes in microclimate. The 370 thousand year<br />
(ka)-long dataset from Lake Titicaca (Peru/Bolivia)<br />
(Hanselman et al., 2005, in press), reveals that environmental<br />
changes associated with the warming of marine<br />
isotope stage (MIS) 9 and 5e are more extreme than of<br />
the Holocene. The trajectory of <strong>Andean</strong> warming (ca.<br />
1 1C in the last 30 years) Andes suggests a minimum<br />
warming of 1–2 1C by mid century (Christensen et al.,<br />
2007) producing temperatures probably equivalent to<br />
1<br />
Present address: J. A. Hanselman, Department of Biology, Westfield<br />
<strong>State</strong> College, Westfield, MA, USA.<br />
2 Present address: W. D. Gosling, Department of Earth and Environmental<br />
Sciences, CEPSAR, The Open University, Milton Keynes,<br />
UK.<br />
Correspondence: M. B. Bush, tel. 1 1 321 674 7166, e-mail:<br />
mbush@fit.edu<br />
those of MIS 9 and 5e (Van der Hammen & Hooghiemstra,<br />
2003) by ca. 2050.<br />
A common expectation has developed among biologists<br />
that, as the world warms, species will migrate<br />
upslope and poleward (Parmesan & Yohe, 2003). Such<br />
changes are already documented on tropical mountains<br />
particularly where ecotones are strong and range shifts<br />
readily detectable, such as the lower limit of cloud<br />
forest (Pounds et al., 1999; Pounds, 2001). Assumptions<br />
that species will continue to migrate upslope have<br />
raised concerns that as the bioclimatic envelopes defining<br />
the potential range of a species lift off the top of<br />
mountains, these upper-elevation species will go extinct<br />
(Peters & Darling, 1985; Thomas et al., 2004; Malcolm<br />
et al., 2006). Although such extinction may be the case in<br />
some settings, an alternative scenario is one in which,<br />
rather than marching steadily upslope in response to<br />
linear climate change, the system flips to a new state.<br />
Nonlinear changes in climate have been suggested to<br />
underlie millennial-scale climate pulses such as Dansgaard-Oeschger<br />
cycles and Heinrich events (Broecker &<br />
Denton, 1989; Stocker, 2000; Bond et al., 2001), and are<br />
clearly capable of causing rapid and profound switches<br />
of climatic direction. Such changes would require an<br />
entirely different societal response to conserve livelihoods,<br />
agricultural production, and biota, compared<br />
with that of incremental linear changes.<br />
Thus, estimates of future climate change need to take<br />
into consideration phenomena operating from global to<br />
r 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 3223
3224 M. B. BUSH et al.<br />
local scales, as their interaction, through feedback mechanisms,<br />
could result in abrupt tipping points that lead<br />
to nonlinear responses in temperature or precipitation.<br />
The paleoecological record becomes our best resource<br />
for studying such complex responses, and attention<br />
needs to focus on times when climate changed rapidly,<br />
and temperatures were warmer-than-modern.<br />
Here we describe, climatic events and feedbacks<br />
associated with past interglacials that were probably<br />
about 1–3 1C warmer-than-present in the Andes. Twice,<br />
a tipping point was reached that led to a profound<br />
alteration of regional ecosystems.<br />
The present and past climates of Lake Titicaca<br />
Lake Titicaca (Bolivia/Peru, 15.5–171S, 68.5–701W) lies at<br />
3810 m above sea level in the Altiplano (Fig. 1) and has a<br />
modern climate that is cool and dry. Cloudiness is much<br />
greater during the wet season than the dry season, with<br />
just 6 h of bright sunlight in January compared with<br />
9.6 h in July (http://waterwiki.net/index.php/Lake_Titicaca-Poopo).<br />
A lake effect is evident in local temperatures<br />
with averages at Titicaca about 5 1C higher than<br />
areas remote from the lake. Roche et al. (1992) mapped<br />
temperatures around Titicaca and concluded that the<br />
lake warming effect extended for tens of kilometers<br />
around the lake. Similarly, the lake influences precipitation<br />
patterns. Average annual rainfall within the Altiplano<br />
ranges from ca. 200 mm yr 1 in the south to<br />
400 mm yr 1 in the north, with ca. 890 mm yr 1 over<br />
the main basin of Titicaca. About 80% of the precipitation<br />
falls during the period of the South American<br />
summer monsoon (SASM) (December–March) when<br />
the winds are dominated by an easterly flow bringing<br />
Amazonian moisture to the Altiplano (Roche et al., 1992).<br />
Over Lake Titicaca itself, precipitation is supplemented<br />
by night-time convective rains in the wet season.<br />
Climatic oscillations between glacial and interglacial<br />
landscapes were evident in the 370 ka paleoecological<br />
record from Lake Titicaca (Hanselman et al., 2005, in<br />
press). During glacials, cold temperatures resulted in<br />
very little pollen production as the shoreline of Lake<br />
Titicaca became a glacial foreland. The ice masses lay<br />
within 100 m vertically of the lake, but never reached<br />
the shore (Seltzer, 1990; Seltzer et al., 2002). During the<br />
glacial periods, combinations of meltwater and changes<br />
in the precipitation : evaporation (P : E) ratio of open<br />
water bodies resulted in both higher and lower lake<br />
levels than those of today. During highstand events, the<br />
increased overflow of Lake Titicaca into the Rio Desaguadero<br />
contributed to the flooding of the southern<br />
Altiplano (Ybert, 1992; Clapperton, 1993; Placzek et al.,<br />
2006). Considerable debate surrounds the timing of<br />
highstands that resulted in a series (temporally) of<br />
paleolakes with shorelines as much as 120 m above<br />
the modern level of the Salar de Uyuni (e.g. Hastenrath<br />
& Kutzbach, 1985; Baker et al., 2001a; Placzek et al., 2006;<br />
Gosling et al., 2008). At the dry extreme, during each of<br />
the four interglacials heightened concentrations of carbonate<br />
were deposited in the sediments of Lake Titicaca<br />
relative to modern values. Carbonate was deposited as<br />
the level of Titicaca fell below its outlet and the P : E<br />
ratio declined causing salts in the lake to become more<br />
concentrated (Baker et al., 2005). In the Holocene, the<br />
peak calcium carbonate (CaCO3) concentration in sediments<br />
was about 54%, but during prior interglacials it<br />
was as high as 100%, perhaps suggesting longer or more<br />
intense periods of evaporative dominance. These long<br />
oscillations appeared to have followed the pattern of<br />
orbital precession, a finding that was consistent between<br />
<strong>Andean</strong> and Amazonian lakes and regional<br />
speleothem records (Hooghiemstra et al., 1993; Baker<br />
et al., 2001a; Bush et al., 2002; Fritz et al., 2004; Wang<br />
et al., 2004; Cruz et al., 2005).<br />
Although long-term precessional variability underlay<br />
the lowstand of the mid-Holocene (Baker et al., 2001a),<br />
shorter-term events, ranging from annual to millennial,<br />
were superimposed on this basic pattern (Ekdahl et al.,<br />
2008; Hillyer et al., 2009). Understanding the mid-Holocene<br />
dry event provides insights into changes associated<br />
with MIS 9 and 5e. The mid-Holocene dry<br />
event has been a consistent feature of paleoecological<br />
records from western Amazonia and the Andes. As<br />
knowledge of the event deepened it became apparent<br />
that it should be described as a period of increased<br />
drought probability, rather than a single drought<br />
(Hillyer et al., 2009). Between 9 and 4.4 ka, the net effect<br />
was a drier climate that lowered lake level, but this was<br />
not a time of uniform aridity. Rather, the climate had<br />
shifted toward a drier tendency, marked in the paleoecological<br />
record by sediment chemistry and fossil diatoms<br />
associated with shallow, ephemeral, or saline<br />
lakes. However, the same proxies indicate brief but<br />
frequent wetter periods in which lake levels rose<br />
(Hillyer et al., 2009).<br />
The mid-Holocene drying lowered lake level at Titicaca<br />
by ca. 85 m (Seltzer et al., 1998; Baker et al., 2001b).<br />
Once the lake level had dropped below the outflow to<br />
the southern basin of Huinaimarca (a 25 m lowering),<br />
further loss of water from the system was due to<br />
evaporation. A hydrological model of this event suggested<br />
that P : E ratios could account for the observed<br />
lowering of lake level if windspeed was held constant,<br />
temperature increased by 1 1C and precipitation fell by<br />
40%. Tweaking of the parameters in the hydrological<br />
simulations demonstrated that lake level was not<br />
strongly responsive to variations in temperature (Cross<br />
et al., 2000).<br />
r 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Global Change Biology, 16, 3223–3232
Fig. 1 Sketch map of the Altiplano in Peru/Bolivia showing the modern lakes (gray shading) and salars (hashing). Also shown on the<br />
main diagram is the highstand associated with paleolake Tauca (short dashed line, after Placzek et al., 2006), and, on the inset, the<br />
lowstands of the Holocene (dashed and dotted line) and MIS 5e (long dashed line, after Baker et al., 2005). Location of core site LT01-2B<br />
marked with star on inset.<br />
Whatever had caused the compound dry events<br />
comprising the mid-Holocene drought ended ca.<br />
5.2 ka, when lake levels started to rebound (Baker<br />
et al., 2001b; Paduano et al., 2003). Most lakes in the<br />
Andes and Amazon were filled close to modern levels<br />
by 4.4 ka (Seltzer et al., 2000; Abbott et al., 2003). This<br />
wet event was apparently due to increased precipitation<br />
that corresponded both to the increased intensity of El<br />
Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) events and reduced<br />
summer insolation to the northern tropical Atlantic<br />
Ocean (Moy et al., 2002; Riedinger et al., 2002; Rein,<br />
2007).<br />
Thus, the long-term pattern provided by precessional<br />
change was overlain by regional and local factors that<br />
produced sharply defined changes in lake level. Similar<br />
r 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Global Change Biology, 16, 3223–3232<br />
interactions of factors operating on a range of spatial<br />
and temporal scales would be expected to influence<br />
past and future climate.<br />
Methods<br />
ANDEAN TIPPING POINTS 3225<br />
Analysis of the fossil pollen data from core LT01-2B followed<br />
standard protocols and has been described in detail elsewhere<br />
(Hanselman et al., 2005). The chronology of the core was<br />
established via a combination of isotopic dating using 14 C<br />
A.M.S and U/Th, and wiggle matching to the Vostok ice core<br />
record (Petit et al., 1999) and is described in Fritz et al. (2007,<br />
2008).<br />
Grayscale analysis, in which the relative darkness (blackest<br />
5 0, whitest 5 255) of sediment bands was recorded. This
3226 M. B. BUSH et al.<br />
technique was applied to the MIS 5e section of the core based<br />
on high-resolution images collected on a Geotek core-logger at<br />
the LacCore facility, and analyzed using IMAGEJ (Rasband,<br />
2005).<br />
Results<br />
The most striking features of the Lake Titicaca paleoecological<br />
record are the differences between glacial<br />
and interglacial conditions (Fig. 2). During glacials very<br />
little pollen was deposited and there was an almost<br />
complete absence of fire from the system (Hanselman<br />
et al., in press). However, during each of the interglacials<br />
a progression from Polylepis woodland to Puna<br />
vegetation is apparent and fire becomes a regular<br />
feature of the landscape. Changing lake levels are<br />
indicated by the presence of aquatic taxa such as<br />
Myriophyllum and Isöetes. In general, Isöetes could not<br />
withstand the cold peaks of glacials nor the warm<br />
peaks of the interglacials, and therefore is at peak<br />
abundance at the transition between stages. Similarly,<br />
Polylepis occurs primarily in the transitional period<br />
(Gosling et al., 2009) and declines as charcoal concentrations,<br />
i.e. fire events, increase in abundance and<br />
frequency.<br />
Another marked pattern is the difference in the pollen<br />
signatures between interglacials. In MIS 9 and 5e,<br />
following peaks of aquatic taxa and Polylepis, Amaranthaceae<br />
(cf. Chenopodium) dominate the interglacial<br />
flora. In contrast to this pattern, MIS 7 and 1 the glacial<br />
termination and inception stages are similar to those of<br />
MIS 9 and 5e, but there is no Amaranthaceae-dominated<br />
stage in the middle of the interglacial.<br />
The grayscale analysis of sediments ascribed to MIS<br />
5e revealed increasing contrast as the matrix of the<br />
sediment changed from gray to black with sharply<br />
defined white laminae composed of CaCO3 (Fig. 3).<br />
Discussion<br />
During the early phases of both MIS 9 and 5e the lack of<br />
charcoal in sediments, the upslope migration of <strong>Andean</strong><br />
taxa, and occupation of the Altiplano by fire-sensitive<br />
trees such as Polylepis, indicate warm, moist conditions<br />
(Gosling et al., 2009). A simple model of warming<br />
would predict that the vertical migration of trees would<br />
continue until they fully occupied the lake basin (Fig. 4).<br />
However, long before the peak of the interglacial, a<br />
sudden transition was evident in which trees were<br />
replaced by Amaranthaceae and the 280 m modern<br />
water depth of Lake Titicaca fell so much that large<br />
beds of Myriophyllum formed in shallow water (or on<br />
exposed mudflats). As the lake became more saline this<br />
genus was replaced by Amaranthaceae (Hanselman<br />
et al., in press).<br />
The lake sediment deposited at the inferred peak of<br />
MIS 5e was an almost pure precipitate of CaCO3. The<br />
mid-Holocene warming, which resulted in a 85 m lowering<br />
of lake level was sufficient to deposit some carbonate,<br />
but the change in conditions was insufficient to<br />
generate a comparable change in vegetation (Paduano<br />
et al., 2003). Cross et al. (2000) estimated that a 40%<br />
reduction in precipitation for about 4000 years was sufficient<br />
to achieve the Holocene drawdown. Here we add to<br />
those insights with a conceptual feedback model that<br />
highlights the importance of local effects in this system.<br />
A few other pieces of information are important for<br />
our model. First, following the transition to an Amaranthaceae-dominated<br />
system, climate was not constant<br />
and wetter events punctuated the dry state. Evidence<br />
for the wet episodes comes from peaks of Asteraceae<br />
pollen percentages and concentrations rising and falling<br />
in counterpoint to Amaranthaceae. We interpret the<br />
Amaranthaceae to indicate dry times and low lake level,<br />
with Asteraceae representing wetter cycles. Indeed, the<br />
sediment throughout this section of the core is finely<br />
Fig. 2 The fossil record of selected pollen and spores from Lake Titicaca core LT01-2B. Note the peak of Myriophyllum in MIS 9 was<br />
truncated, actual peak was 6000% of dry land pollen (after Hanselman et al. in press).<br />
r 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Global Change Biology, 16, 3223–3232
Fig. 3 Grayscale analysis of sediments attributed to MIS 5e in the Lake Titicaca LT01-2B core. An image of the sediment is shown<br />
directly beneath the grayscale values for that section.<br />
laminated (Fig. 3). Dark organic material alternating<br />
with carbonate-rich layers, indicate a lake oscillating<br />
between states and rather rapid and strong climate<br />
change.<br />
These data suggest that more than a simple precessional<br />
pattern is represented. ENSO is thought to have<br />
been operating in a broadly similar temporal pattern<br />
to today during much of MIS 5e (Tudhope et al., 2001),<br />
and so it is possible that when the lake is at very<br />
low levels the influence of long ENSO-like cycles on<br />
<strong>Andean</strong> precipitation become evident. Alternatively,<br />
and perhaps more likely, the oscillations could reflect<br />
thermal changes in the Atlantic Ocean. Baker et al.<br />
(2005) suggested that Bond Cycles were evident in the<br />
Holocene portion of the Lake Titicaca record with cold<br />
conditions in the North Atlantic corresponding to wet<br />
conditions on the Altiplano, and warm conditions corresponding<br />
to dry times. This suggestion is complimentary<br />
to the hypothesis that weakened trade winds<br />
resulting from warming of the subtropical North Atlantic<br />
would weaken the transport mechanism that pumps<br />
Atlantic moisture into Amazonia, the South American<br />
low level jet (SALLJ), and induce aridity in Amazonia<br />
and the Andes (Marengo et al., 2008; Zeng et al., 2008).<br />
This mechanism probably caused the Amazon drought<br />
of AD 2005, and here we suggest that it may also have<br />
been important at longer timescales in response to<br />
persistent thermal dipoles in the Atlantic Ocean (Bond<br />
et al., 2001; Baker et al., 2005).<br />
Conceptual models of nonlinear climate change in the<br />
Altiplano<br />
Our conceptual model starts with precessional forcing<br />
that promotes warm conditions in western Amazonia<br />
r 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Global Change Biology, 16, 3223–3232<br />
and the Andes. The large-scale presence of ice changes<br />
the feedbacks, and so glacial and interglacial versions<br />
are presented.<br />
Interglacial<br />
ANDEAN TIPPING POINTS 3227<br />
Warming during the deglacial period increased convection<br />
and exported moisture from Amazonia via SASM<br />
to the Altiplano. A combination of increased precipitation<br />
and runoff from meltwater facilitated formation of<br />
a paleolake. Hence the largest paleolakes would be<br />
predicted to occur within the deglacial period. Periodically,<br />
late Pleistocene paleolakes occupied much of the<br />
Altiplano, with paleolake Tauca (Fig. 1) forming during<br />
the last deglaciation. Lake Tauca occupied 450 000 km 2<br />
(i.e. ca. 6 the area of modern Titicaca) and would have<br />
exerted a considerable lake effect on the climate of the<br />
southern Altiplano. However, this warm wet interval<br />
was cut short by an ‘oceanic forcing’ (Fig. 5a), which<br />
could have been due to warming of either the eastern<br />
equatorial Pacific (EEP) inducing El Niño, a warming in<br />
the subtropical Atlantic weakening the SALLJ, or some<br />
combination of these phenomena. If the SASM weakened<br />
(December–March) and skies were less cloudy,<br />
i.e. more direct sunlight than the present average<br />
6 h day 1 , evaporation would increase. As drought<br />
gripped the Altiplano a positive feedback mechanism<br />
could have exacerbated this effect.<br />
The paleolake would have begun to contract and as it<br />
did so the warm, moist, lake effect would have been<br />
reduced. A decreased lake area would lead to reduced<br />
humidity and thereby increased evaporation, which<br />
would have reinforced reduction of lake area. Although<br />
humidity provokes convective rains over Titicaca, in<br />
general nights over the adjacent land are cloudless. If
3228 M. B. BUSH et al.<br />
(a)<br />
(b)<br />
(c)<br />
Fig. 4 Schematic diagram showing (a) the modern system of<br />
Titicaca, (b) a hypothetical migration response due to warming<br />
assuming that species would migrate upslope, and (c) the outcome<br />
of warming in prior interglacials (MIS 5e and 9) in which<br />
forest did not migrate to fill the basin, but the ecosystem dried<br />
out to become a salt marsh.<br />
nightly low temperatures over the land warmed, the<br />
temperature differential between the lake and the land<br />
would have lessened (currently 4 1C with the lake being<br />
warmer than the land at night). One consequence of<br />
reducing that differential would have been to weaken<br />
the lake breeze (2–4 m s 1 as an average modern flow)<br />
that promotes night-time convective rain over the lake,<br />
further reducing inputs of water and thereby accentuating<br />
the drawdown of the lake.<br />
The lowstand phase would be reversed by external<br />
forcing such as a change in the dominant phase of<br />
ENSO or in the temperature regime of the subtropical<br />
Atlantic.<br />
Glacial<br />
The cool conditions of the glacial probably reduced the<br />
importance of convective activity (Fig. 5b). As the ice<br />
mass grew so the influence of katabatic winds coming<br />
from the ice would have increased their microclimatic<br />
influence. The cold descending air would have encountered<br />
a relatively warm lake and created fog in the base<br />
of the valleys. Thus, the system would have been wet,<br />
cold, and light-limited for much of the year. Fog over<br />
the lake surface and generally cold air would combine<br />
to reduce evaporation. Warmer oscillations would have<br />
added meltwater to accentuate highstands. The feedback<br />
loop that linked precession to height of lake can<br />
serve to draw down the lake in the absence of ice (i.e. in<br />
an interglacial), but it requires the meltwater component<br />
to boost lake level from this forcing to create a<br />
highstand. Thus once the ice mass was established<br />
precessional patterns became evident, but as the ice<br />
mass melted, there was a much weaker precessional<br />
signature of wetting.<br />
Lake level effects and climate change<br />
It is an important realization that the modern conditions<br />
of the Altiplano are part of a cycle from high to low lake<br />
level change and that modern conditions are not a<br />
‘norm.’ The cycle does not follow a regular rhythm as<br />
it is subject to multiple forcings, some of which are, at<br />
best, quasiperiodic, i.e. Bond Cycles. Nor are the cycles<br />
of lake level variability of equal amplitude, i.e. they<br />
produce high or lowstands of different magnitudes.<br />
Thus during MIS 5e, the cycle was strong taking the<br />
Altiplano to a drier extreme. In looking for an approximate<br />
analog for MIS 5e conditions in Lake Titicaca,<br />
some similarities might exist with Lake Poopó, which is<br />
a shallow saline lake that receives about 390 mm of<br />
precipitation annually. As the lake receives some input<br />
from Titicaca via the Rio Desaguadero, 390 mm becomes<br />
a minimum amount of precipitation that can sustain an<br />
open body of water on the Altiplano. For Lake Titicaca<br />
to flip to a saline lake, such as Lake Poopó, a reduction<br />
of 450% precipitation might be needed.<br />
We hypothesize that as evaporation increased and<br />
lake level dropped, it triggered the positive feedback of<br />
aridification, in which temperatures dropped due to<br />
loss of lake effect, and reduced lake surface area resulted<br />
in less convective rain falling basinwide. Just a<br />
25 m lowering of lake level ceases drainage into the<br />
Huinaimarca sub-basin. That sub-basin would dry out<br />
(this is known from paleoecological data; Gosling et al.,<br />
r 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Global Change Biology, 16, 3223–3232
Fig. 5 Conceptual model of feedbacks that result in nonlinear responses in climate change in the Altiplano of Peru/Bolivia. (a)<br />
Interglacial feedbacks, note that deglacial feedbacks are grayed and (b) glacial feedbacks.<br />
2008), the overflow into the Desaguadero River would<br />
have stopped and the downstream system of Lake<br />
Poopó would have dried up. Consequently, a warmer<br />
interglacial instead of stimulating local temperature<br />
increase, and increased convective precipitation, might<br />
at its peak have induced falling temperatures and<br />
aridity in this basin.<br />
Some quantification of when this tipping point<br />
occurred can be made based on moist air adiabatic<br />
lapse rates and observations of tree line. In the absence<br />
of anthropogenic clearance, modern tree-line in the<br />
r 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Global Change Biology, 16, 3223–3232<br />
ANDEAN TIPPING POINTS 3229<br />
Andes would probably lie between 3300 and 3700 m<br />
elevation (Wille et al., 2002; Di Pasquale et al., 2008), i.e.<br />
300–500 m below Lake Titicaca. Moist air adiabatic lapse<br />
rates in this section of the Andes are ca. 5.2 1C per<br />
1000 m of vertical ascent. As the trees never fully<br />
invaded the shoreline, the tip to drier conditions must<br />
have occurred within 1–2 1C of modern temperatures.<br />
Thus, anthropogenic climate change could drive<br />
this system past that the tipping point, which judging<br />
from the abrupt rise in Amaranthaceae pollen in MIS 9<br />
and 5e, comes with very little warning.
3230 M. B. BUSH et al.<br />
This pattern of aridity was observed in both MIS 9<br />
and 5e. MIS 7 does not appear to have been quite so<br />
extreme and its cycle toward aridity was curtailed<br />
before the most extreme lake draw down was reached.<br />
This observation is entirely consistent with marine and<br />
ice core records that show MIS 7 to have been a<br />
protracted, multipeak interglacial, but with less extreme<br />
conditions than MIS 9 and 5e. If, as is projected, climates<br />
warm by 3–6 1C this century, the positive feedback<br />
toward aridity might be renewed. Although the last<br />
1000 years have probably been the wettest of the<br />
Holocene in the Andes, warming of the subtropical<br />
north Atlantic may have already begun, and has been<br />
suggested to have induced the AD 2005 Amazonian<br />
drought (Marengo et al., 2008; Zeng et al., 2008). Indeed,<br />
aerosols, e.g. SO2 and fine particulate carbon, may have<br />
mitigated subtropical Atlantic warming, and as the<br />
loading of these pollutants is reduced, warming may<br />
accelerate (Cox et al., 2008). If that trend becomes<br />
persistent it would probably increase fire frequency,<br />
decrease forest cover, and result in reduced moisture<br />
transport into the Andes (da Silva et al., 2008; Cochrane<br />
& Barber, 2009). Similarly, if the sea surface temperature<br />
(SST) changes predicted by the HADCM3LC happen,<br />
then a warmer EEP would probably result in <strong>Andean</strong><br />
drought. Of these two processes ENSO variation appears<br />
to be dominant, as effects of subtropical Atlantic<br />
temperature are clearest when ENSO is weak (Zeng<br />
et al., 2008). However, the systems are not mutually<br />
exclusive and perhaps the fluctuating pulses of wet and<br />
dry conditions within the overall dry interglacial conditions<br />
reflect a synergy between these systems.<br />
One factor that will differ substantially between past<br />
lowstands on the Altiplano and the modern state is that<br />
it will occur in a landscape containing a capital city (La<br />
Paz, Bolivia) and approximately 2 200 000 human inhabitants.<br />
Ecosystem and societal adaptation<br />
The predictable ecosystem response to a lowering of<br />
Lake Titicaca and desiccation of the Altiplano would be<br />
a stalling of the anticipated upslope migration of forest<br />
and the expansion of xerophytic species. Erickson<br />
(1988) has argued that humans overcome climate<br />
change in the Andes through cultural adaptation and<br />
landscape manipulation. While this appears to be true<br />
of the relatively subtle changes in climate of the last<br />
3000 years, the response of humans to the millennial<br />
scale mid-Holocene droughts in the Altiplano was to<br />
abandon the region (Núñez et al., 2002). Speculating<br />
about how humans could maintain crop productivity<br />
and water supply is beyond the scope of this paper,<br />
though the twin obstacles of increasingly concentrated<br />
salts in surface waters and decreased water availability<br />
(both from reduced precipitation and loss of ice caps)<br />
would be substantial hurdles to overcome.<br />
In the seminatural systems of the Andes, populations<br />
of species that were stressed by the drier conditions<br />
would be predicted to go locally extinct, survive in<br />
moist microrefugia, or undergo selection to genotypes<br />
that could withstand drought. Emphasizing the conservation<br />
of potential microrefugia and ecosystem connectivity<br />
may become an important component of<br />
strategies to safeguard some at-risk species.<br />
Biomass and fuel load are inextricably linked in the<br />
high Andes, and fire is a landscape transformer. Plantations<br />
of trees that trap moisture could mitigate some<br />
drought effects, as shading helps to retain soil moisture<br />
and organic material, plus the structure of the plants<br />
serves to intercept moisture from ground-level cloud.<br />
Thus such stands, while increasing biomass, could<br />
reduce fire risk. However, Eucalyptus, which is the most<br />
widely planted tree in the high Andes, wicks prodigious<br />
quantities of moisture out of the soil, effectively<br />
drying the landscape, and is highly combustible (Luzar,<br />
2007). Eucalyptus plantations increase the probability<br />
that the wettest locations would become fire-prone<br />
and unsuitable for many of the indigenous elements<br />
that might otherwise occupy these settings. A more<br />
desirable candidate for afforestation is Polylepis, but<br />
control of fire would be essential for their ability to<br />
mature (Cierjacks et al., 2008).<br />
Conclusion<br />
Cycles of lake level have characterized at least the last<br />
370 ka on the Peru/Bolivian Altiplano. Orbital forcing<br />
has been a basic pacemaker of events, but superimposed<br />
on this pattern are changes in moisture availability<br />
driven by oceanic processes, which are themselves partially<br />
controlled by orbital patterns. Nonlinear feedbacks<br />
appear to have induced rapid landscape change.<br />
Changes in lake area have significant climatic effects on<br />
the Altiplano and positive feedbacks are envisaged that<br />
lead both to high and low lake stands.<br />
In MIS 9 and 5e, a trend toward warm wet conditions<br />
was initiated by changes in precession, but suddenly<br />
altered by a change in the moisture balance. We hypothesize<br />
that oceanic forcing induced droughts that<br />
were then accentuated through positive feedback mechanisms,<br />
leading to a profound change in local ecosystems.<br />
Eventually, outside forcing broke the feedback<br />
cycle and once again reversed these trends.<br />
On the Altiplano, contracting lake area during interglacial<br />
warm periods may have initiated feedback effects<br />
so strong that they reversed the thermal trend of<br />
the progression toward warming. A similar turning<br />
r 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Global Change Biology, 16, 3223–3232
point where the dominant signature shifting from<br />
warming to aridity may occur again as regional temperatures<br />
rise 1–2 1C. Despite this turning point potentially<br />
reducing local temperatures, it offers no solace to<br />
conservation of natural resources as the accompanying<br />
droughts would cause major dislocations of natural and<br />
human communities.<br />
A key lesson to learn from this study is that although<br />
species have already started to expand their ranges<br />
upslope on tropical mountains this pattern could be<br />
abruptly halted, even reversed, as a result of nonlinear,<br />
local, responses to ongoing global warming. A critical<br />
difference between MIS 9 and 5e in South America<br />
relative to the Holocene is the presence of a human<br />
population. Our prognoses of climate change are of<br />
direct relevance to the livelihoods of more than 2<br />
million people living in the Peruvian and Bolivian<br />
Andes, as they will influence their choice of land use,<br />
occupancy of marginal lands, and which kind of lands<br />
become marginal.<br />
The modern relevance of this study is emphasized by<br />
the recent push to use the Andes for carbon sequestration.<br />
The need to understand the future capability of the<br />
land to support forest or maintain soil moisture vital for<br />
carbon sequestration is critical to the long-term success<br />
of such ventures. In addition to its global benefits,<br />
agroforestry may play a role in delaying or alleviating<br />
the fullest local effects of these droughts. However,<br />
choice of species to be planted and control of fire are<br />
as important as the area that becomes forested.<br />
Acknowledgements<br />
This work was supported by Grant NSF-ATM 0317539. Andy<br />
Lloyd of the Open University is thanked for preparing Fig. 1.<br />
This work is a product of the Andes Biodiversity and Ecosystem<br />
Research Group (ABERG) and is publication #6 of the Florida<br />
Institute for Technology, Institute for Research on Global Climate<br />
Change.<br />
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