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Information and liaison bulletin - Institut kurde de Paris

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Revue <strong>de</strong> Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro <strong>de</strong> la Prensa-Basin Ôzeti<br />

losses clawing them out of their<br />

strongholds.<br />

KRG officials have previously called<br />

for a political solution that would<br />

address concerns about Turkey's<br />

treatment of its Kurdish minority, <strong>and</strong><br />

TIME<br />

Nov. Ol. 2007<br />

suggested an amnesty for PKK re¬<br />

bels.<br />

Both the PKK <strong>and</strong> the KRG have in the<br />

past <strong>de</strong>nied Turkish claims that the<br />

rebels use Iraqi territory for crossbor<strong>de</strong>r<br />

attacks.<br />

Mr Zebari spoke in advance of a<br />

conference in Istanbul on Saturday<br />

bringing together Iraq <strong>and</strong> its neigh¬<br />

bours. Iraq does not want the PKK<br />

issue to dominate talks but says the<br />

focus should be on security, refugee<br />

<strong>and</strong> energy issues.<br />

Turkey should show restraint over<br />

Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq so as<br />

not to make the situation worse but its<br />

security concerns are un<strong>de</strong>rst<strong>and</strong>a¬<br />

ble, a Kremlin spokesman said yes¬<br />

terday, Reuters reports from Moscow<br />

Crocker to Turkey: Stay Out of Iraq<br />

Bu Scott MacLeod/Doha<br />

U.S. ambassador in Baghdad Ryan Croc¬<br />

ker is urging Turkey to <strong>de</strong>monstrate<br />

"strategic patience" over recent attacks by<br />

Kurdish fighters insi<strong>de</strong> Iraq, warning that a<br />

cross-bor<strong>de</strong>r Turkish military strike is exac¬<br />

tly what the PKK rebels are trying to pro¬<br />

voke. Such an action, he told TIME in an<br />

interview on the eve of Friday's meeting in<br />

Turkey between Iraq <strong>and</strong> its neighbors,<br />

would be "highly <strong>de</strong>stabilizing" in Iraq, <strong>and</strong><br />

would not necessarily achieve the results<br />

<strong>de</strong>sired by Turkey.<br />

Crocker also cited progress in reconciling<br />

Iraq's Sunni <strong>and</strong> Shi'ite communities during<br />

the two months since he <strong>and</strong> General David<br />

Petraeus reported to Congress. Despite re¬<br />

cent Bush Administration saber-rattling on<br />

Iran, Crocker also said that he expects to<br />

hold another round of talks with Iranian<br />

officials about mutual concerns in Iraq. He<br />

credits the U.S. troop surge for some of the<br />

success in driving Osama bin La<strong>de</strong>n's follo¬<br />

wers from Anbar province, but admits, "al-<br />

Qaeda is not <strong>de</strong>feated."<br />

TIME: What are the latest changes you<br />

see in Iraq?<br />

Crocker: The change in Anbar is the most<br />

dramatic. Levels of violence in Anbar are<br />

down to just about nothing. Fallujah <strong>and</strong><br />

Ramadi, which became like Beirut in the<br />

early '80s synonyms for unchecked vio¬<br />

lence <strong>and</strong> terror, are two of the quietest cites<br />

in Iraq right now. The Anbaris stood up<br />

against al-Qaeda. That was occasioned, of<br />

course, in large part by al-Qaeda's own ex¬<br />

cesses they provoked a counterreaction.<br />

But I'm not sure that would have happened,<br />

or would have had the effect it did, if it had¬<br />

n't been for the surge. The tribes knew that<br />

they weren't going to be alone in this.<br />

TIME: Anything else?<br />

Crocker: That phenomenon; al-Qaeda<br />

excesses elsewhere; people just being tired of<br />

years of violence, wanting something better;<br />

the surge it all started to multiply, through<br />

Baghdad, Diyala, the whole area around<br />

Baghdad, <strong>and</strong> it happened quick. I came in<br />

March, these kinds of things we're seeing<br />

now you couldn't even imagine then. This<br />

doesn't mean it's success. It's not. I wouldn't<br />

say we've turned a corner. There are huge<br />

challenges out there. Al-Qaeda is not <strong>de</strong>fea¬<br />

ted. But it really is different now.<br />

TIME: What about political progress?<br />

Crocker: The Iraqi government moved<br />

pretty quickly to try <strong>and</strong> take advantage of<br />

this change <strong>and</strong> consolidate it. There are now<br />

about 25,000 young Sunnis in Anbar who<br />

12<br />

are wearing the uniforms of the Iraqi police<br />

<strong>and</strong> getting their salary from the Ministry of<br />

Interior in Baghdad to keep the peace in<br />

Anbar province. You have some political<br />

movement you just didn't see before. The<br />

Sunni vice presi<strong>de</strong>nt went down to Najaf in<br />

October <strong>and</strong> called on Ayatollah Sistani.<br />

Ammar al-Hakim, the heir apparent to Ab¬<br />

dûlaziz [al-Hakim, lea<strong>de</strong>r of the largest<br />

Shi'ite party in the government], went out to<br />

Ramadi to visit the [Sunni] sheikhs of Anbar.<br />

The sheikhs of Kerbala <strong>and</strong> Anbar have had<br />

two big meetings together, Shia <strong>and</strong> Sunni,<br />

<strong>and</strong> the two governors are coordinating on<br />

security arrangements for the Haj [the an¬<br />

nual Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca]. There is a<br />

new dynamic going on. The dynamic has<br />

become clearer. We were seeing the begin¬<br />

ning of this before the testimony [to<br />

Congress] <strong>and</strong> referred to it, but it has be¬<br />

come consi<strong>de</strong>rably more pronounced since<br />

then.<br />

TIME: Yet, the Iraqi government still<br />

hasn't moved on key U.S. benchmarks,<br />

like <strong>de</strong>-Ba'athification reform.<br />

Crocker: What we are seeing is national<br />

reconciliation, not through national legisla¬<br />

tion, but through actual reconciliation. There<br />

is a lot of dysfunction in the Iraqi govern¬<br />

ment. There is no question about it. You see<br />

it as they grapple with these major pieces of<br />

legislation. They need to show they can do a<br />

better, more focused job on this.<br />

TIME: How do you see Iran <strong>and</strong> the<br />

Shi'ite issue now?<br />

Crocker: You have Iranian influence, which<br />

is extremely negative. But even there, you see<br />

among the Shi'ites a reflection of what you<br />

see among the Sunnis. It is not as dramatic,<br />

but it's there.<br />

TIME: How do you read the situation<br />

in northern Iraq with the Turkish<br />

threats?<br />

Crocker: The north, clearly a problem. The<br />

PKK found ungoverned space, <strong>and</strong> they are<br />

using it to carry out a terror campaign<br />

against Turkey. It is not a sustainable situa¬<br />

tion. Something is going to have to give here.<br />

We think it's very important that something<br />

comes through efforts by the Iraqis <strong>and</strong><br />

others as appropriate to find ways to shut<br />

them down <strong>and</strong> eventually get them out, not<br />

through Turkish military strikes.<br />

TIME: What do you tell Turkey about<br />

how you will h<strong>and</strong>le it?<br />

Crocker: It's the Iraqis who are going to<br />

h<strong>and</strong>le it. They are talking about steps to try<br />

to interdict the flow of goods <strong>and</strong> people into<br />

W.":.<br />

<strong>and</strong> out of that area. Heightened security at<br />

airports to ensure they are not flying in from<br />

Europe, going through the airport <strong>and</strong> going<br />

into the mountains. Arresting them where<br />

they can be found. Tightening down with a<br />

view to disrupting their ability to organize up<br />

there.<br />

TIME: Does that address Turkey's<br />

concerns?<br />

Crocker: What we tell the Turks is, look, we<br />

un<strong>de</strong>rst<strong>and</strong> your outrage. We share it. But<br />

you also have to think about consequences. If<br />

you are thinking about a military action, will<br />

it work? Will it achieve your end result? And<br />

what about uninten<strong>de</strong>d consequences? I<br />

think the PKK is trying to trigger a Turkish<br />

military action. That's why they are doing<br />

this. Why? So that the Turks will do some¬<br />

thing that will really inflame Kurdish opinion<br />

in eastern Turkey. And give them what they<br />

lost in '99, which is an environment where<br />

they can resume a presence <strong>and</strong> operations<br />

insi<strong>de</strong> Turkey. That's what they want. That's<br />

obviously what the Turks would presumably<br />

have an interest in not giving them. Again,<br />

it's going to take some strategic patience.<br />

TIME: What are the uninten<strong>de</strong>d<br />

consequences for the U.S. <strong>and</strong> Iraq?<br />

Crocker: It could be highly <strong>de</strong>stabilizing in<br />

Iraq as well. I can't go off into wild hypotheticals.<br />

It would <strong>de</strong>pend on what they did. But<br />

you are talking about a large-scale military<br />

operation. Large-scale military operations<br />

have consequences.<br />

TIME: Are you going to talk to Iran<br />

again?<br />

Crocker: I expect we will have another<br />

round. I can't say when. I'm certainly open to<br />

doit.<br />

TIME: What's holding it up?<br />

Crocker: It comes at the initiative of the<br />

Iraqis. I told them I'd be prepared to sit<br />

down. They'll tell me when.<br />

TIME: Is Iran resisting?<br />

Crocker: I really don't know.

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