Information and liaison bulletin - Institut kurde de Paris

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basin Ozeti
This apparent lethargy masks deep wor¬
ries and divisions among the Kurdish lead¬
ers, intensified by the knowledge that their
options are limited. Against all evidence,
Mohammed Ihsan, minister of extra-re¬
gional affairs in Nechirvan Barzani's gov¬
ernment, maintains that "the referendum
will take place, definitely". Asked whether
he believes the referendum can still take
place before the end of 2007, Adnan Mufti,
member of the PUK leadership and speaker
of the Kurdish parliament, answered, after a
long silence, saying finally, "I am not going"
to answer this question if you are going to
quote me". Saadi Pira, also a member of
the PUK leadership, is more direct: "Tech¬
nically, it is not possible to organise the
referendum within the agreed time frame,
for security reasons, because of delays in
payments by the Iraqi government, and of
problems in the registration of the transfers
of residence."
While refusing to consider the possibil¬
ity that the referendum will not take place
on time, some Kurdish politicians, like Dr
Mahmoud Osman, an independent member
of the Iraqi parliament, or Saadi Pira, and
Safin Dizaye, KDP spokesman, are ready to
consider extending the deadline by a few
months - three-to-six months at the most
- if there are clear signs that decisions are
taken during these months. "To postpone
for one year and do nothing would be very
bad," says Saadi Pira. "It would lead to dis¬
aster," confirms Fuad Hussein.
THE MIDDLE EAST NOVEMBER 2007
THE KURDS who have, for years,
lived a chequered and uncertain life
are determined future generations
will not suffer a similar fate
Kurdish officials in Erbil know who
the opponents to the implementation of
article 140 are. "It is not like in the 1970s,
when Saddam Hussein indefinitely post¬
poned the referendum included in the
March 1970 agreement," claims Adnan
Mufti, "now there is no dictatorship in
Baghdad, it is possible to discuss and to
put forward our demands. . . But we face
the opposition of ex-Baathists, some mem¬
bers of the Turkmen front, and of some
Shi'a. And, of course, the main problem is
the opposition of Turkey and of the Arab
countries."
More pessimistic, Nouri Talabani, an
independent member of the Kurdish parlia¬
ment, says "the Arabs were forced to accept
the compromise of article 140, but except
for a few liberals and leftists, they do not
believe in this compromise, and they have
no intention of implementing it". Fuad
Hussein, although he speaks officially as
the spokesman of Massoud Barzani, nev¬
ertheless blames "people who are in the
government and are opposed to article 140,
and who do not say it openly but invoke
technical reasons".
Asked what their options are if the refer¬
endum does not take place before the end of
2007, Kurdish officials are clearly reluctant
to discuss this issue. Adnan Mufti answers
that he does "not want to put forward our
options for the others to choose". Fuad
Hussein says that if it comes to that, the
Kurds can withdraw their ministers from
the government. "And if we withdraw, the
government collapses."
Offthe record, some Kurdish officials say
the Kurds would have no other alternative
but to storm Kirkuk. "Should we repeat the
KDP coup of 31 August 1996?" says a PUK
official, alluding to the events of 1996 when
Massoud Barzani reclaimed Erbil with the
help of the Iraqi army. But these Kurdish
officials know that such a move, unless it is
supported by the US, could risk provoking
unpredictable reactions from Turkey and
Iran. "If the Americans allow us to secure
Kirkuk and Mosul, we must do it quickly,"
says Fuad Hussein. But it is a big "if". . .
and for the time being, the Americans are
not sending any positive signals to the
Kurds. "When we ask the US what they
think about the attitude of the Baghdad
government, they answer 'we do not in¬
terfere'," says a disillusioned Dr Mahmoud
Osman, adding "they fought the war, they
have been occupying the country for four
years, but they say 'they do not interfere'
(laughing). . .It means they do not oppose
Baghdad's behaviour".
The truth is the Kurds hold few cards.
The Kurdish leaders are convinced that
Nouri Al Maliki is the best prime minis¬
ter they can have. "We are partners," says
Mohammed Ihsan, "we are in the same boat,
and if anything happens to them, we are in
real trouble."
For many Kurds, who speak more openly
than their leaders, the battle for Kirkuk is
lost. "If the referendum does not occur be¬
fore the end of 2007, it will never happen,"
says Nuri Talabani, "because the situation
is going to be more and more complex, and
the pressures will increase."
Ferhad Pirbal, a university professor
and an intellectual who made his name in
Kurdistan by not being afraid of expressing
non politically correct opinions, is not the
only one to think that the Kurds can finally
benefit from Baghdad's policy of "delaying. . .
and deleting" the referendum.
"Like previous ones, the present gov¬
ernment in Baghdad is playing with this
issue. Just like between 1970 and 1974,
Ahmed Hassan Al Bakr tried three times to
kill general Barzani, and cancelled the
referendum". "One should not be afraid
of saying this," adds Ferhad Pirbal dur¬
ing an interview in the garden of the
Erbil writers' club, "it is not being racist, it
is not being chauvinistic - they are chau¬
vinistic. There will be an abyss between
the Arabs and the Kurds. I am happy
that the Arabs betray us. I can tell the
people: 'This is what the Arabs who claim
they are democrats are doing to the Kurds'.
They do not want us to live together in a
unified Iraq".
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