HENOK MERHATSIDK 1.pdf - Addis Ababa University

the failed state of Somalia, the mis- use of force by the Ethiopian government army, the
inability of the Federal Government to respond to the development questions of the Ogadeni
people, the governments failure to implement those rights granted by the Constitution
including self rule, among others, are factors for the current instability in the region. Ogaden
is a large territory. Hence, the prevalence of instability in Ogaden means, instability of
eastern part of Ethiopia. Besides, islamist forces in Somalia cross the Ethiopian boundary and
involve in the Ogaden conflict. The recent agreement between the Ethiopian government
with one ONLF faction led by Salahdin Mao is appreciable. However, the other faction is
still fighting with the Ethiopian army.
The movement of OLF in Ethio-Kenyan border has an impact in the security cooperation of
Ethiopia and Kenya. The researcher believes that because of the ethnic link in the Kenyan
side of the border and the porous nature of the Ethio- Kenyan border, OLF occasionally cross
the Kenyan border and launch its attacks on the Ethiopian government army. This security
challenge is even higher given the Oromo’s are large ethnic group both in terms of territorial
and population size. Most revenue generating items of Ethiopia are generated from the
Oromia Region. If the power of OLF strengthens the Ethiopian economy could be in trouble.
Moreover, the Northern Frontier District of Kenya and the south and western part of Ethiopia
could be exposed for instability. One plausible scenario is the opening of political space for
all opposition groups; this might attract the attention of the OLF leaders to peaceful
involvement in the Ethiopian politics.
There is an increasing trend of the influx of refugees from Ethiopia to Kenya. It seems that
most of the refugees have economic motive for departure to Kenya rather than political
motive. The information gathered from the Ethiopian and the Kenyan side shows that the
Ethiopian refugees have a desire to reach to South Africa by crossing Kenyan, Tanzanian and
Mozabique borders. This illegal migration produced several dangers on the refugees that are
using risk-ful roads such as to hide from Kenyan security forces. The Kenyan government
established controlling centers and detained Ethiopian refugees who were trying to cross the
common boundary. This also put the Ethiopian government under pressure. Refugees are not
only going to Kenya but they are crossing other dangerous areas including Bossaso in
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