ÇAĞRILI KONUŞMALAR / KEYNOTES Invited Speeches ... - TPJD

Geothermal Energy Potential of Turkey
Emine Didem Korkmaz Başel, Ümran Serpen, Abdurrahman Satman
İstanbul Technİcal University, Faculty of Mines, Department of Petroleum and Natural Gas
Engineering, İstanbul
In this study the stored heat in the first 3 km depth of Turkey, identified geothermal capacity of
known 279 occurrences and geothermal potential of fields in terms of power generation and
direct use applications are estimated.
Our results revealed that the geothermal resource potential of rocks shallower than 3 km is
3±1x1023 J.
The current identified geothermal capacity of the known 279 geothermal localities has reached
about 5550 MWt and 5944 MWt on a reference temperature of 20 oC and 15 oC respectively.
A total of 122 potential geothermal fields (25 fields suitable for electric power generation,
100 are suitable for nonelectric usages and three of them could be classified for both usages)
are evaluated using volumetric reserve estimation method. Monte Carlo type of simulation
technique is employed for calculations of estimations.
According to Monte Carlo simulation results, 122 fields have a lower limit of 28 500 MWt
(cumulative probability; P10) thermal potential assuming that all fields are exploited for direct
use only.
Taking the results of the Monte Carlo Simulation studies for high temperature geothermal fields
the results of P10, P50 and P90 values are calculated as 1055, 1469 and 2105 respectively. The
lower limit of Turkey geothermal potential for electricity generation for those 25 high temperature
fields is estimated to be 1055 MWe and the corresponding value for direct use to be 22 450 MWt
for a reference temperature of 100 oC and 15 oC, respectively. In case of integrated exploitation
of those 25 high temperature fields, the corresponding potential for direct use is 12 860 MWt.
In case of integrated exploitation of the 25 high temperature fields for both electricity generation
and direct use, and the direct use exploitation of all other fields, the direct use potential
corresponding to P10 value is 18 910 MWt.
Capacity and the potential values given here apply only to known and identified fields already
discovered in Turkey. Geothermal heat pumps, the EGS applications, and undiscovered fields are
not taken into consideration. With the consideration of these possible applications in future, the
potential and capacity values would be much higher than the current values.As a final part of this
study the subsurface temperature distribution maps at 500 m and 1000 m depths generated for
Turkey and as well as for the Southeastern Anatolia and Thrace Regions are presented.
Keywords: Turkey, Geothermal energy, Geothermal potential, Capacity, Temperature
distribution map, Monte Carlo, Geostatistics
323