ÇAĞRILI KONUŞMALAR / KEYNOTES Invited Speeches ... - TPJD

present situation looks like this: Natural gas data recapitulated: USGS: 92.491,215 BBBOE(Total);
Thematic maps: 99.144,405,9 BBBOE (Proven); BP: 49.23 BBBOE (Proven). Again, I take the USGS
figures as an optimistic outlook. In that case, we can hope for another 30 BBBOE natural gas discovery
in the future. The mediterranean is also not rich in coal resources: In coal we have 74.531,7 BBBOE
energy in coal around the Mediterranean.
Nuclear power in the Mediterranean: a very active and worry some place in nuclear developments.
There are 436 reactors in the world. 19 % of it is around the Mediterranean. The largest number
of countries planning to build reactors are here! Level of worker sophistication is lower around the
Mediterranean than in northern European countries (cultural problem). It is lower in southern and
eastern Mediterranean countries than in northern and western Mediterranean countries. A critical
safety factor that must not be ignored for the sake of political correctness! Current U reserves from
the Mediterranean countries are 230,945 tonnes which might last about 20 years. The existing
reactors in the circum-Mediterranean countries generate some 19% of the total nuclear energy being
generated in the world by nuclear reactors. This is now equivalent to about 386 MMBOE/a. 386 X 20
= 7.720 BBBOE for the next 20 years.
The so-called renewable energy potential of the Mediterranean: Moving water, wind, sun. These are
as renewable as the evolving earth system permits them to be. We humans can and have already
interfered with the earth system and already jeopardised a part of the renewability of our so-called
renewable energy resources. The greatest folly of all times:
“The philosophers have only interpreted the world, in various ways; the point is to change it’
Karl Marx, Theses on Feuerbach
If we do not know what we are changing we would be inviting disaster.
Now let us look at moving water: 1) Streams on land (rivers). 2) Streams in the sea (currents). 3) Tidal
motions in the sea (negligible in the Mediterranean)
Here we deal only with streams on land. The Mediterranean is mostly classified as small coastal
drainage area: i.e., no large rivers. From their little rivers, the Mediterranan countries annually can
obtain the following amount of energy in TW•h/a 444.25=261 MBBO But this is renewable! Or, is it?
The Future of Renewable Energy Resources for the Mediterranean Basin: Types of renewable resources
considered: water, wind, solar. Assessment of renewable resource potential for a particular site
requires high spatial and temporal resolution studies. Here we are relying on following assumptions
and proxys:
Simulations with a global (i.e. coarse) climate system model (in our case, the Community Climate
System Model (CCSM) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research)
A particular greenhouse gas concentration scenario for the 21th Century, in our case SRES A2
scenario (one of the worst case scenarios). Proxys for renewables: renewable energy resource and the
proxy field of the GCM. For the hydroelectric power, the proxy is th annual total surface runoff. For
wind power, it is wind at 2m height and for solar power downwelling solar flux density at the surface:
Here we considered two time intervals and we averaged over them: 2021-2050 (relatively speaking,
short-to-mid-term)and 2061-2090 (long-term). The resutls show the following energy potentials:
water: 261 MBBO/a (with decreasing potential); wind: 250 MBBO/a (with decreasing potential); Sun:
198 x 1012 BBBOE/a (with increasing potential).
Now we can enunciate our Safety rule # 2: Understanding the source and necessity of energy.
Such understanding can only come from a proper education in natural sciences. Natural science
education in schools should not be left under the control of national governments, but must be
dictated and periodically checked by an international body of science academies. No factor other
than science should be allowed to interfere with the planning and execution of science instruction.
Safety rule # 2-corollary: One needs politicians better educated in natural sciences and a new class of
science bureaucrats that can effectively bridge the gap between scientists and politicians. Politicians
must remember Charles Darwin’s golden rule: vox populi is not vox dei (i.e., not everything improves
when made more democratic). Safety rule # 3: The circum-Mediterranean countries must develop a
joint military force 1) to protect what little energy resources they have and, more importantly, the
energy corridors leading to them from their energy-rich neighbours. Specialist forces and appropriate
‛conventions’ for guerrila warfare are especially necessary; 2) to help collect observations on energy
variables; 3) to help bridge cultural gaps especially between the north (mainly Christian) and the
south (mainly Muslim).
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