ÇAĞRILI KONUŞMALAR / KEYNOTES Invited Speeches ... - TPJD

Probabilistic Petroleum and Natural Gas Reserve Calculations by Volumetric
Methods and Probabilistic Aggregation of Field Resource
Caner Karacaer, Mustafa Onur
İstanbul Technical University, Faculty of Mines, Department of Petroleum and Natural Gas
Engineering, İstanbul
In oil and natural gas production projects, many investment and development plans are based
on the estimated oil and gas reserve values. There is a large uncertainty in the calculation of
hydrocarbon reserves. In this study, for the modeling of uncertainties on volumetric reserve
estimations, Analytical Uncertainty Propagation (AUP) method is presented as an alternative
to Monte Carlo Method. It is proved that AUP method can be used in volumetric reserve
estimations. To determine the total potential of more than one field or reservoir, two different
methods are examined and “Sorting Diagrams Method” is developed to determine correlation
coefficients between two fields which is indispensable component of realistic estimations. Also,
applicability of AUP method to simulation applications is investigated and for this purpose two
different methods are developed. The usability of these methods is discussed.
Keywords: Monte Carlo, Analytical Uncertainty Propagation, Reserve Estimation, Probabilistic
Aggregation, Uncertainty Analysis
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