ÇAĞRILI KONUŞMALAR / KEYNOTES Invited Speeches ... - TPJD

Assessment of Uncertainties in Oil and Gas Reserves Estimations By Various
Evaluation Methods
Murat Fatih Tuğan 1 , Mustafa Onur 2
1 Turkish Petroleum Corporation, Department of Production, Ankara
2 İstanbul Technical University, Faculty of Mines, Department of Petroleum and Natural Gas
Engineering, İstanbul
The ultimate target of all oil companies is to increase their income by producing oil and/or gas. The
key parameter to produce oil/or gas is the investments, such as purchasing licenses, drilling wells
and constructing production facilities. Companies program their investments to a particular field
by analyzing the ultimate recovery from that field. In this study, two most-widely used reserves
estimation methods, volumetric method and material balance method are applied to estimate
the Gas Initially in Place (GIIP) in a TPAO gas field, Çayırdere Field. Meanwhile, the importance of
probabilistic approach to reserves estimation is emphasized by showing the change in estimated
values by producing time. In addition to estimate reserves in probabilistic fashion, analytic
uncertainty propagation method (AUPM), a simple, yet quite accurate alternative uncertainty
quantification method to the well known Monte Carlo method is used to assess the uncertainty
in GIIP of Çayırdere Field and is discussed in detail.
Keywords: Reserves Estimation, Uncertainty
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