ÇAĞRILI KONUŞMALAR / KEYNOTES Invited Speeches ... - TPJD

Energy Safety in the Mediterranean
A. M. Celâl Şengör
İstanbul Technical University, Faculty of Mining, Department of Geological Engineering, İstanbul
The “Great Game” Enters the Mediterranean: Gas, Oil, War, and Geo-Politics
Mahdi Darius Nazemroay
The surroundings of the Mediterranean Sea has long been considered from the viewpoint of its
natural characteristics and historical richness the most desirable region to live in. Despite that it is not
the most prosperous part of the world and neither is it the safest. The reason for these infirmities lies
in its cultural diversity and the unequal degres of develpment of the societies that inhabit its shores.
Around the Mediterranean a prosperous and a free north faces a poor south suffering from a number
of tyrranies. In the present state of the world, however, the tyrannies of the south posses much
richer energy resources than the free north and this asymmetry has long been a concern not only for
the inhabitants of the Mediterranean region, but for the entire world. Moreover, the Mediterranean
sits across some of the most critical shipping lanes that also transport energy sources. Under these
circumstances the geologist is often questioned by administrators and by the population as to what
the future holds in store for the Mediterranean energy situation. To answer that question, one must
take stock of the present situation.
Energy resources are commonly divided into two sorts: renewable and non-renewable, whereby
it is often overlooked that the so-called renewable sources may not be as renewable as one thinks,
because they are dependent on the atmospheric, hydrospheric and biospheric conditions that may
unedgo changes much more rapid than assumed until only two decades ago. It is here that the
geologist steps in with his understanding of the past and the ability to forecast the future.
Let us first see what our inventory of energy resources in the Mediterranean look like: Nonrenewable
sources (fossil fuels) are studied by classical stratigraphical, structural geological and
geochmical methods. Renewable sources (solar radiation and atmospheric, hydrospheric and
biospheric motions) are the subjects of geomorphology, climatology and agriculture. Until the 19th
century industrial revolution, mankind used partly non-renewable energy (coal) to warm itself and
used entirely renewable energy (muscle and wind) to move itself and its goods. We now see that the
main result of the industrial revolution was really a revolution in climate-controlling factors on earth.
This has proved to be a very unsafe state of affairs for mankind. All observations suggest that we are
heading for disaster very soon!
According to the BP 2007 statistics published in 2008:
•The oil reserves are mostly located in the Middle East and to a lesser degree in Russia, Venezuela,
Kazakhstan, Libya and Nigeria, which collectively account for 84% of the world reserves; 42 years of
reserves plus 21 years of resources
•The gas reserves are mostly located in the Middle East and Russia, which collectively account for 66%
of the world reserves; 61 years of reserves plus 69 years of resources
•The coal reserves are mostly located in the USA, Russia, China, India, Australia and South Africa
which collectively account for 82% of the world reserves; Will last us for another 5 to 6 millenia!
So, the safety lesson # 1 is ‘use energy sensibly, wherever you are’
The entire potential in petroleum of the North-Central Mediterranean basins is 38,280
MMBOE; i.e. not even 1/4 of the North Sea Basin! The total proved oil reserves from the Circum-
Mediterranean basins=70 BBO. If the assessment of the USGS of some of the prolific basins is any
guide, the total can be doubled; but not much more! The Black Sea is unlikely to add much more than
twice Azerbaijan+Turkmenistan’s proven reserves (i.e., 5.475 BBBO) to the total (assuming Maikop
source and reservoir). If we thus recapitulate the oil data from the Mediterranean: USGS: 44.490,215
BBBO (Total for prolific basins): Thematic maps: 70 BBBO (Proven); BP: 54.728 BBBO (proven for some
selective countries). I take the USGS figures as an optimistic outlook. In that case, we can hope for
another 45 BBBO oil discovery in the future (+5 BBBO for the Black Sea). For the natural gas, the
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