PowerPoint-Präsentation Erste Gruop Bank AG
PowerPoint-Präsentation Erste Gruop Bank AG
PowerPoint-Präsentation Erste Gruop Bank AG
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page 1<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
Why Is Labour Migration<br />
Important for Europe's Future?<br />
Rainer Münz<br />
<strong>Erste</strong> Group <strong>Bank</strong>,<br />
Head of Research & Development<br />
Labour Migration and its Developemt<br />
the Age of Mobility<br />
Swedish EU Presidency Conference<br />
Malmö, October 15-16, 2009<br />
Potential in<br />
October 16, 2009
R. Münz<br />
Why<br />
Talking<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
About<br />
Migration in Times of<br />
Crisis?<br />
page 2 Malmö, October 16, 2009
−<br />
an<br />
R. Münz<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
page 3 Malmö, October 16, 2009
Today, 22 million people<br />
are unemployed in EU27<br />
R. Münz<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
page 4 Malmö, October 16, 2009
R. Münz<br />
Demographic<br />
Challenges<br />
Ahead<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
page 5 Malmö, October 16, 2009
R. Münz<br />
Ageing<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
page 6 Malmö, October 16, 2009
If you would have<br />
grandmother<br />
R. Münz<br />
to explain<br />
it<br />
to your<br />
EU 27: age pyramid, 2008, 2060<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
page 7 Malmö, October 16, 2009
The average European is getting older<br />
R. Münz<br />
50<br />
48<br />
46<br />
44<br />
42<br />
40<br />
38<br />
36<br />
34<br />
32<br />
30<br />
1950<br />
1960<br />
EU 27: Average<br />
1970<br />
1980<br />
1990<br />
2000<br />
Age, 1950-2050<br />
2010<br />
2020<br />
2030<br />
Median Age Average Age<br />
2040<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
2050<br />
Source: Eurostat; EU Comm 2007<br />
page 8 Malmö, October 16, 2009
“Old World”: Europe will be the<br />
world’s oldest continent<br />
30%<br />
20%<br />
10%<br />
R. Münz<br />
0%<br />
65+ in %<br />
Percentage of population 65+<br />
2005 2025 2050<br />
EU27 World<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
Source: UN Population Quelle: Division UN<br />
page 9 Malmö, October 16, 2009
R. Münz<br />
Our<br />
More<br />
Than<br />
Future:<br />
Deaths<br />
Births<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
page 10 Malmö, October 16, 2009
Natural Increase/Decrease, 2008<br />
(Births minus deaths per 1000 inhabitants)<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
over +5<br />
+2.5 to +5<br />
page 11 Malmö, October 16, 2009<br />
R. Münz Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin<br />
.<br />
0 to +2.5<br />
0 to -2.5<br />
-2.5 to -5<br />
below -5<br />
Source: Eurostat 2008, CIA 2008
R. Münz<br />
Loss<br />
of<br />
Population<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
page 12 Malmö, October 16, 2009
Population by Regions 1990-2000<br />
(Changes in %)<br />
R. Münz<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
Source: BfS, Eurostat, Berlin Institute<br />
page 13 Malmö, October 16, 2009
R. Münz<br />
Main<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
Challange<br />
page 14 Malmö, October 16, 2009
Development of Labor Force and<br />
Support Ratio (no migration)<br />
(Zero migration variant; at constant labor force<br />
participation rates)<br />
R. Münz<br />
300<br />
240<br />
180<br />
120<br />
238<br />
35%<br />
214<br />
52%<br />
170<br />
2008 2025 2050<br />
84%<br />
Labor force Age group 65+/labor force<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
100%<br />
80%<br />
60%<br />
40%<br />
20%<br />
0%<br />
Own calculations based on Europop 2008<br />
page 15 Malmö, October 16, 2009
R. Münz<br />
What<br />
− Learn<br />
− Increase<br />
can<br />
to shrink<br />
the<br />
participation<br />
− Retire<br />
life<br />
we<br />
at a later<br />
− Bring in more<br />
do?<br />
decently<br />
labor<br />
force<br />
of women<br />
moment<br />
migrants<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
in<br />
page 16 Malmö, October 16, 2009
R. Münz<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
Possible Answers<br />
page 17 Malmö, October 16, 2009
Can<br />
R. Münz<br />
we<br />
shrink<br />
in a decent<br />
way?<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
page 18 Malmö, October 16, 2009
Population by Regions 2008-2031<br />
(projected changes in %)<br />
no<br />
R. Münz<br />
an<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
page<br />
Source:<br />
19<br />
Eurostat, Berlin Institute, national data for<br />
Malmö,<br />
Belarus,<br />
October<br />
Moldova,<br />
16,<br />
Serbia,<br />
2009<br />
Ukraine
Become<br />
R. Münz<br />
a large Venice<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
page 20 Malmö, October 16, 2009
R. Münz<br />
Become<br />
Scandinavian<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
page 21 Malmö, October 16, 2009
Development of Labor Force and<br />
Support Ratio (no migration)<br />
(Zero migration variant; Convergence to top 3 European<br />
countries with the highest labor force participation)<br />
R. Münz<br />
300<br />
240<br />
180<br />
120<br />
238<br />
35%<br />
229<br />
49%<br />
203<br />
2008 2025 2050<br />
71%<br />
Labor force Age group 65+/labor force<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
100%<br />
80%<br />
60%<br />
40%<br />
20%<br />
0%<br />
Own calculations based on Europop 2008<br />
page 22 Malmö, October 16, 2009
R. Münz<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
page 23 Malmö, October 16, 2009
Employment Rates of the Elderly<br />
in EU Member States (Age Group<br />
55-64), 2008<br />
R. Münz<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
an<br />
page 24 Malmö, October 16, 2009
Development of Labor Force and<br />
Support Ratio (no migration)<br />
(Zero migration variant; Increase in retirement age by<br />
10 years)<br />
R. Münz<br />
300<br />
240<br />
180<br />
120<br />
238<br />
35%<br />
231<br />
48%<br />
68%<br />
211<br />
2008 2025 2050<br />
Labor force Age group 65+/labor force<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
100%<br />
80%<br />
60%<br />
40%<br />
20%<br />
0%<br />
Own calculations based on Europop 2008<br />
page 25 Malmö, October 16, 2009
R. Münz<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
page 26 Malmö, October 16, 2009
Development of Labor Force and<br />
Support Ratio (+50 mn migrants)<br />
(Medium migration variant; at constant labor force<br />
participation rates)<br />
R. Münz<br />
300<br />
240<br />
180<br />
120<br />
238<br />
35%<br />
229<br />
49%<br />
207<br />
2008 2025 2050<br />
72%<br />
Labor force Age group 65+/labor force<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
100%<br />
80%<br />
60%<br />
40%<br />
20%<br />
0%<br />
Own calculations based on Europop 2008<br />
page 27 Malmö, October 16, 2009
Employment Differential Between<br />
and Non-EU-Born by<br />
R. Münz<br />
EU-Born<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
Gender, 2007 (in ppts)<br />
page 28 Malmö, October 16, 2009
Employment<br />
Among<br />
R. Münz<br />
Gaps<br />
in EU 27<br />
Non-EU-Born, 2007<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
page 29 Malmö, October 16, 2009
Skills<br />
How to attract<br />
migrants with an<br />
adequate mix of skills?<br />
R. Münz<br />
and Diversity<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
page 30 Malmö, October 16, 2009
Skills<br />
How to make use of<br />
migrants with talents<br />
and skills?<br />
R. Münz<br />
and Diversity<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
page 31 Malmö, October 16, 2009
Skills<br />
How to manage societies with<br />
a high degree of ethnic and<br />
religious diversity<br />
R. Münz<br />
and Diversity<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
page 32 Malmö, October 16, 2009
Development of Labor Force and<br />
Support Ratio (+50 mn migrants)<br />
(Medium variant; Convergence to top 3 European<br />
countries with the highest labor force participation)<br />
R. Münz<br />
300<br />
240<br />
180<br />
120<br />
238<br />
35%<br />
245 246<br />
46%<br />
2008 2025 2050<br />
60%<br />
Labor force Age group 65+/labor force<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
100%<br />
80%<br />
60%<br />
40%<br />
20%<br />
0%<br />
Own calculations based on Europop 2008<br />
page 33 Malmö, October 16, 2009
Development of Labor Force and<br />
Support Ratio (+50 million migrants)<br />
(Medium variant; Increase in retirement age by 10<br />
years)<br />
R. Münz<br />
300<br />
240<br />
180<br />
120<br />
238<br />
35%<br />
247<br />
45%<br />
253<br />
2008 2025 2050<br />
59%<br />
Labor force Age group 65+/labor force<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
100%<br />
80%<br />
60%<br />
40%<br />
20%<br />
0%<br />
Own calculations based on Europop 2008<br />
page 34 Malmö, October 16, 2009
Thank<br />
R. Münz<br />
you<br />
for<br />
your<br />
Rainer Münz<br />
<strong>Erste</strong> Group<br />
Research & Development<br />
rainer.muenz@erstegroup.com<br />
ERSTE GROUP<br />
BANK <strong>AG</strong><br />
attention!<br />
page 35 Malmö, October 16, 2009
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