study on economic partnership projects

It is assumed that future GDP will grow at an average annual rate of 8.0% from 2010 to
2015. Subsequently, the growth rate will gradually reduce by 0.5% every five years, and will
stabilize at 5.5% growth rate from 2035 to 2040. This growth scenario will be justified considering
the potential of the Vietnamese economy and based on the results of comparisons with other studies.
(d) Forecast of Future OD Matrices
The future traffic growth rates were calculated by inputting the future GDP to the equations
in Figures 3-10, 3-11 and 3-12 based on the existing <strong>study</strong> entitled “Study on Da Nang-Quang Ngai
Expressway Project in the Socialist Republic of Vietnam” Car
Source: Study Team
Car Traffic/day
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
y = 0.007x - 1619.4
R 2 = 0.9488
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000
3-15
GDP
Figure 3-10 Regression Analysis between GDP and Traffic Demand (Cars)
Bus
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Source: Study Team
Bus Traffic/day
0
y = 0.0087x - 1754
R 2 = 0.9194
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000
GDP
Figure 3-11 Regression Analysis between GDP and Traffic Demand (Buses)