Sulphuric Acid Market Outlook - Creon
Sulphuric Acid Market Outlook - Creon
Sulphuric Acid Market Outlook - Creon
You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
<strong>Sulphuric</strong> <strong>Acid</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Outlook</strong><br />
The <strong>Outlook</strong> for <strong>Sulphuric</strong> <strong>Acid</strong><br />
Demand for Fertilizers, Metal and<br />
Uranium<br />
Joanne Peacock, CRU International/BSC<br />
<strong>Creon</strong> – Moscow – December 2009<br />
LONDON | BEIJING | WASHINGTON | RALEIGH | MINNEAPOLIS<br />
31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X 0AD UK<br />
Tel +44 20 7903 2132 Fax +44 20 7833 4973<br />
www.britishsulphur.com<br />
www.crugroup.com
This presentation will review:<br />
• Global Overview and Recent <strong>Market</strong> Developments<br />
– Production<br />
– Consumption<br />
– Trade<br />
– Price<br />
• The Demand <strong>Outlook</strong> for:<br />
– Fertilizers<br />
– Copper<br />
– Nickel<br />
– Uranium<br />
• Key Conclusions<br />
2
Global <strong>Acid</strong> Production 1999-2009<br />
Involuntary acid market share rises from 23% to 31%<br />
causing a decline in voluntary production<br />
(million tonnes)<br />
250<br />
200<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
0<br />
Other Pyrites Brimstone Smelter <strong>Acid</strong><br />
Involuntary production up 8% in 11 years<br />
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009(f)
Global <strong>Acid</strong> Consumption 2008<br />
Fertiliser industry dominates global demand - Base Metal and<br />
Uranium<br />
1%<br />
Uranium leaching represent a small proportion (6%)<br />
AS<br />
8%<br />
Other<br />
25%<br />
Ni Leaching<br />
1% Cu Leaching<br />
5%<br />
TiO2<br />
3%<br />
Phosphate<br />
Fertilizer<br />
57%
Global <strong>Sulphuric</strong> <strong>Acid</strong> Trade 2008<br />
410<br />
360<br />
310<br />
260<br />
210<br />
160<br />
110<br />
60<br />
10<br />
<strong>Sulphuric</strong> <strong>Acid</strong> Pricing 1989 – 2009<br />
fob Tampa <strong>Acid</strong> $/t cfr NW Europe <strong>Acid</strong> $/t<br />
cif Mejillones <strong>Acid</strong> (contract) $/t cif Mejillones <strong>Acid</strong> (spot) $/t<br />
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010<br />
-40<br />
(f)
<strong>Sulphuric</strong> <strong>Acid</strong> Demand <strong>Outlook</strong> –<br />
Phosphoric <strong>Acid</strong><br />
LONDON | BEIJING | WASHINGTON | RALEIGH | MINNEAPOLIS<br />
31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X 0AD UK<br />
Tel +44 20 7903 2132 Fax +44 20 7833 4973<br />
www.britishsulphur.com<br />
www.crugroup.com
Phosphoric <strong>Acid</strong> & SSP Production - 2008<br />
38.7 million tonnes of P 2O 5<br />
8.2<br />
0.7<br />
1.9<br />
1.2<br />
5.5<br />
3.2<br />
1.4<br />
3.8<br />
11.3<br />
0.6<br />
0.9
$2,000<br />
$1,800<br />
$1,600<br />
$1,400<br />
$1,200<br />
$1,000<br />
$800<br />
$600<br />
$400<br />
$200<br />
$0<br />
Phosphate Prices Return To Normal<br />
Black Sea MAP<br />
Moroccan 100% Phos <strong>Acid</strong><br />
Tampa DAP<br />
Rock
Phosphoric <strong>Acid</strong> Production beginning to rebound<br />
10.0<br />
9.0<br />
8.0<br />
7.0<br />
6.0<br />
5.0<br />
4.0<br />
3.0<br />
2.0<br />
1.0<br />
0.0<br />
8 Million<br />
tonnes P 2O 5<br />
All Others<br />
Morocco<br />
China<br />
USA
New Phosphoric <strong>Acid</strong> Capacity Growth Slowing<br />
Total New Capacity 6.8 million tonnes by 2012<br />
Morocco 375,000 tonnes @ Jorf Lasfar in 2012<br />
Tunisia 330,000 tonnes @ Skhira in 2011<br />
Tunisia 180,000 tonnes @ M’Dilla in 2012<br />
Saudi Arabia 1.5 million tonnes @ Ras az Zawr in 2010/11<br />
Brazil 150,000 tonnes @ Araxa in 2011<br />
Brazil 230,000 tonnes @ Uberaba in 2012<br />
Vietnam 162,000 tonnes @ Dinh Vu in 2009/10<br />
Australia 150,000 tonnes @ TBD in 2012<br />
China 3.7 million tonnes @ TBD before 2012
Long-Term Phosphate Fertilizer Consumption<br />
growing 2.4% or<br />
about 1.1 million tonnes P 2O 5 per year
(m tonnes)<br />
120<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
<strong>Sulphuric</strong> <strong>Acid</strong> Demand – Phosphoric <strong>Acid</strong>,<br />
by Region, 2007-2017<br />
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017<br />
Data: British Sulphur Consultants<br />
Region (CAGR 2007-2017)<br />
Oceania (4.5%)<br />
Asia (1.7%)<br />
S & C America (5.9%)<br />
N America (-1.6%)<br />
Africa/Middle East (3.6%)<br />
CIS (1.6%)<br />
Europe (-5.6%)
<strong>Sulphuric</strong> <strong>Acid</strong> Demand <strong>Outlook</strong> –<br />
Copper, Nickel, Uranium<br />
LONDON | BEIJING | WASHINGTON | RALEIGH | MINNEAPOLIS<br />
31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X 0AD UK<br />
Tel +44 20 7903 2132 Fax +44 20 7833 4973<br />
www.britishsulphur.com<br />
www.crugroup.com
Forecast <strong>Sulphuric</strong> <strong>Acid</strong> Demand – Copper, Nickel<br />
and Uranium, 2007 - 2017<br />
(‘000 tonnes)<br />
30000<br />
25000<br />
20000<br />
15000<br />
10000<br />
5000<br />
0<br />
Copper Nickel Uranium<br />
2007-2017 CAGR<br />
Cu: 2.5%<br />
Ni: 18.5<br />
U: 7.9%<br />
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
‘000 tonnes recoverable Cu<br />
Global Copper Production Forecast, 2008-2017<br />
Production from EW declining as ore bodies deplete<br />
18,000<br />
16,000<br />
14,000<br />
12,000<br />
10,000<br />
Smelter EW Growth Rate Smelter Growth Rate SXEW<br />
8,000<br />
6,000<br />
4,000<br />
2,000<br />
0<br />
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017<br />
10<br />
8<br />
6<br />
4<br />
2<br />
0<br />
-2<br />
-4<br />
-6<br />
Data: CRU Analysis<br />
y-o-y percentage change
‘000 tonnes contained Ni<br />
Regional Nickel Production, 2017 versus 2008<br />
Growth in acid demand is forecast in four regions<br />
700<br />
600<br />
500<br />
400<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
0<br />
HPAL & HL Other (Smelting)<br />
2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017<br />
Africa Asia Australasia Europe N America S&C America CIS<br />
Data: CRU Analysis
Forecast <strong>Sulphuric</strong> <strong>Acid</strong> Use for Nickel Leaching<br />
By 2013, nine HL/HPAL projects in operation adding<br />
4mt acid demand<br />
Operation Country Technology Ni Prod<br />
2013, '000<br />
tpy<br />
H2SO4 Cons. H2SO4 Cons.<br />
t/t of Ni prod. ‘000 t<br />
(Data: CRU)<br />
Murrin Murrin Australia HPAL 31 32 1,008<br />
Coral Bay Philippines HPAL 20 26 520<br />
Moa Bay/Fort<br />
Saskatchewan Cuba HPAL 42 25 1,050<br />
Goro New Caledonia HPAL 55 26 1,452<br />
Talvivaara Finland Bio HL 33 8 264<br />
Ramu River PNG HPAL 31 36 1,107<br />
Ambatovy Madagascar HPAL 18 30 545<br />
Caldag Turkey HL 16 49 784<br />
Taganito,<br />
Mindanao Philippines HPAL 1** 26 26<br />
Grand Total 248 29* 6,756<br />
Data: CRU Analysis/BSC Note: *Average ** Start up, full capacity = 30ktes
‘000 tonnes<br />
<strong>Sulphuric</strong> <strong>Acid</strong> for Uranium, 2017 versus 2008<br />
Strong growth forecast in Africa and CIS, exceeding local<br />
3500<br />
3000<br />
2500<br />
2000<br />
1500<br />
1000<br />
500<br />
0<br />
smelter acid supply<br />
2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017<br />
Europe Africa N America S&C America Asia Oceania CIS
Sulphur Burning Projects – Uranium<br />
Regional acid deficits will lead to further investment in<br />
sulphur burning capacity<br />
Country Company Location Start-up<br />
Date<br />
Status Capacity<br />
‘000 t<br />
CIS:<br />
Russia TVEL Chita* 2009 Operational 180<br />
Kazakhstan<br />
Kazatomprom/<br />
Uranium One<br />
Stepnogorsk<br />
2010<br />
(Replacement)<br />
Firm 180<br />
Kazakhstan<br />
Kazatomprom/<br />
Uranium One<br />
Zhanakorgan 2011 Firm 500<br />
Africa:<br />
Malawi Paladin Energy Kayelekera† 2009 Firm 76<br />
Namibia Rossing Swakopmund Unknown On Hold 396<br />
Niger Areva Imouraren 2013 PreFS 202<br />
South Africa Various Rand Unknown PreFS Unknown<br />
Namibia Various Swakopmund Unknown PreFS Unknown
KEY CONCLUSIONS<br />
• The production of sulphuric acid on an involuntary basis continues to<br />
grow.<br />
• Demand for sulphur and sulphuric acid for fertilizers will recover and is<br />
forecast to remain steady.<br />
• Demand for sulphuric acid for copper leaching appears to be reaching its<br />
peak; some copper producers are now turning to sulphur burning for<br />
strategic and commercial reasons.<br />
• New demand for acid for nickel and uranium leaching will be mainly met<br />
by elemental sulphur.<br />
• In the longer term, a rationalisation of sulphuric acid production capacity in<br />
some acid –producing regions will be required, whilst re-investment<br />
continues to take place elsewhere.<br />
21
<strong>Sulphuric</strong> <strong>Acid</strong><br />
THANK YOU!<br />
Ten Year Forecast and <strong>Market</strong> Analysis Service<br />
Joanne Peacock<br />
Tel: +44 20 7903 2121<br />
Email: joanne.peacock@crugroup.com<br />
LONDON | BEIJING | WASHINGTON | RALEIGH | MINNEAPOLIS<br />
31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X 0AD UK<br />
Tel +44 20 7903 2132 Fax +44 20 7833 4973<br />
www.britishsulphur.com<br />
www.crugroup.com
Change language