A5V4d

A5V4d A5V4d

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Feverish illness in children Number of studies Score > 9 90 Number of children Sensitivity (95% confidence interval) For detecting serious bacterial infection 1 (Thayyil, 2005) Score of > 10 72 13 (0 to 35) a Specificity (95% confidence interval) 33 (21 to 44) a Positive predictive value (95% confidence interval) Negative predictive value (95% confidence interval) 2 (0 to 7) a 75 (59 to 91) a For detecting serious illness (including aseptic bacterial meningitis) 1 (Baker, 1990) 126 46 (30 to 62) b For detecting serious bacterial infection 1 (Galetto- Lacour, 2003) 1 (Andreol a, 2007) 80 (71 to 88) b 49 (32 to 65) b 110 23 (5 to 54) 82 (67 to 92) 32 (12 to 51) 408 38 (28 to 48) b For detecting bacteraemia 1 (Teach, 1995) 1 (Bang, 2009) 68 (63 to 73) b 6680 5 (2 to 8) b 97 (96 to 97) b 219 88 (71 to 93) For detecting bacterial disease 1 (Baker, 1990) 126 33 (7 to 60) b For detecting urinary tract infection 1 (Zorc, 1995) Score of 10 to 16 26 (19 to 34) b 84 (73 to 87) 68 (56 to 78) 73 (65 to 81) b 1025 4 (0 to 9) a 93 (91 to 94) a For detecting serious bacterial infection 1 (Andreol a, 2007) Score of 11 to 15 408 43 (33 to 53) a For detecting serious illness 1 (McCart hy, 1982) 312 31 (16 to 46) a 74 (69 to 79) a 84 (79 to 89) a 78 (70 to 87) b 75 (66 to 84) 79 (74 to 83) b 5 (2 to 7) b 97 (97 to 98) b 11 (1 to 22) b 95 (89 to 98) 91 (85 to 97) b 6 (0 to 11) a 91 (89 to 93) a 33 (24 to 41) a 26 (13 to 39) a 81 (77 to 86) a 87 (82 to 2) a Positive likelihood ratio (95% confidence interval) 0.2 (0.0 to 1.2) a 2.3 (1.3 to 3.9) a 1.3 (0.6 to 2.9) b 1.2 (0.9 to 1.6) b 1.6 (0.9 to 3.0) a 5.4 (3.7 to 7.9) 1.2 (0.5 to 2.9) a 0.6 (0.2 to 1.6) a 1.6 (1.2 to 2.2) a 1.9 (1.1 to 3.4) a Negative likelihood ratio (95% confidence interval) 2.7 (1.7 to 4.1) a 0.7 (0.5 to 0.9) a 0.9 (0.8 to 1.2) b 0.9 (0.8 to 1.1) b 1.0 (0.9 to 1.0) a 0.1 (0.1 to 0.3) 0.9 (0.6 to 1.4) a 1.0 (1.0 to 1.1) a 0.8 (0.6 to 0.9) a 0.8 (0.7 to 1.0) a Quality Low Modera te Very low Low Very low Modera te Modera te Modera te Low Low

Number of studies 1 (Teach, 1995) 1 (Bang, 2009) Score of ≥ 16 Number of children Sensitivity (95% confidence interval) Specificity (95% confidence interval) 6680 1 (0 to 2) b 99 (99 to 99) b 219 48 (27 to 56) For detecting serious illness 1 (McCart hy, 1982) 312 33 (18 to 49) a For detecting serious bacterial infection 1 (Andreol a, 2007) Positive predictive value (95% confidence interval) 91 (67 to 90) 68 (52 to 82) 99 (98 to 100) a 408 9 (3 to 14) a 98 (96 to 99) a Clinical assessment of the child with fever Negative predictive value (95% confidence interval) 1 (0 to 4) b 97. (97 to 97) b 92 (78 to 100) a 53 (28 to 79) a NA Not applicable a Calculated by the NCC-WCH from results reported in the study 82 (75 to 87) 89 (85 to 93) a 78 (74 to 82) a b Confidence intervals calculated by the NCC-WCH from data reported in the study Table 5.47 GRADE profile for comparison of Yale Observation Scores Number of studies Positive likelihood ratio (95% confidence interval) 0.4 (0.1 to 3.2) a 5.5 (3.0 to 9.8) 64.7 (8.7 to 482.0) a 3.8 (1.4 to 10.3) a Negative likelihood ratio (95% confidence interval) 1.0 (1.0 to 1.0) a 0.6 (0.4 to 0.7) 0.7 (0.5 to 0.8) a 0.9 (0.9 to 1.0) a Duration of fever Effect Quality With serious bacterial illness/infectio n (SBI) (Mean, SD) Yale Observation Score For detecting serious bacterial infection 1 (Hsiao, 2006) Without SBI (Mean, SD) P value 9.4 (SD 4.6) 8.1 (SD 3.6) P < 0.05 High For detecting bacteraemia 1 (Haddon, 1999) 7.0 (SD 1.5) 7.4 (SD 1.9) P = 0.45 High P probability, SBI serious bacterial illness/infection, SD standard deviation Evidence statements The following definitions have been used when summarising the likelihood ratios: Quality Very low Modera te Convincing: positive likelihood ratio (LR+) 10 or higher, negative likelihood ratio (LR-) 0.1 or lower Strong: LR+ 5 or higher (but less than 10), LR- 0.2 or lower (but higher than 0.1) Not strong: LR+ 4.9 or lower, LR- higher than 0.2 Low Low 91 2013 Update

Feverish illness in children<br />

Number<br />

of<br />

studies<br />

Score > 9<br />

90<br />

Number<br />

of<br />

children<br />

Sensitivity<br />

(95%<br />

confidence<br />

interval)<br />

For detecting serious bacterial infection<br />

1<br />

(Thayyil,<br />

2005)<br />

Score of > 10<br />

72 13 (0 to 35)<br />

a<br />

Specificity<br />

(95%<br />

confidence<br />

interval)<br />

33 (21 to 44)<br />

a<br />

Positive<br />

predictive<br />

value<br />

(95%<br />

confidence<br />

interval)<br />

Negative<br />

predictive<br />

value<br />

(95%<br />

confidence<br />

interval)<br />

2 (0 to 7) a 75 (59 to<br />

91) a<br />

For detecting serious illness (including aseptic bacterial meningitis)<br />

1 (Baker,<br />

1990)<br />

126 46 (30 to<br />

62) b<br />

For detecting serious bacterial infection<br />

1<br />

(Galetto-<br />

Lacour,<br />

2003)<br />

1<br />

(Andreol<br />

a, 2007)<br />

80 (71 to 88)<br />

b<br />

49 (32 to<br />

65) b<br />

110 23 (5 to 54) 82 (67 to 92) 32 (12 to<br />

51)<br />

408 38 (28 to<br />

48) b<br />

For detecting bacteraemia<br />

1<br />

(Teach,<br />

1995)<br />

1 (Bang,<br />

2009)<br />

68 (63 to 73)<br />

b<br />

6680 5 (2 to 8) b 97 (96 to 97)<br />

b<br />

219 88 (71 to<br />

93)<br />

For detecting bacterial disease<br />

1 (Baker,<br />

1990)<br />

126 33 (7 to 60)<br />

b<br />

For detecting urinary tract infection<br />

1 (Zorc,<br />

1995)<br />

Score of 10 to 16<br />

26 (19 to<br />

34) b<br />

84 (73 to 87) 68 (56 to<br />

78)<br />

73 (65 to 81)<br />

b<br />

1025 4 (0 to 9) a 93 (91 to 94)<br />

a<br />

For detecting serious bacterial infection<br />

1<br />

(Andreol<br />

a, 2007)<br />

Score of 11 to 15<br />

408 43 (33 to<br />

53) a<br />

For detecting serious illness<br />

1<br />

(McCart<br />

hy,<br />

1982)<br />

312 31 (16 to<br />

46) a<br />

74 (69 to 79)<br />

a<br />

84 (79 to 89)<br />

a<br />

78 (70 to<br />

87) b<br />

75 (66 to<br />

84)<br />

79 (74 to<br />

83) b<br />

5 (2 to 7) b 97 (97 to<br />

98) b<br />

11 (1 to 22)<br />

b<br />

95 (89 to<br />

98)<br />

91 (85 to<br />

97) b<br />

6 (0 to 11) a 91 (89 to<br />

93) a<br />

33 (24 to<br />

41) a<br />

26 (13 to<br />

39) a<br />

81 (77 to<br />

86) a<br />

87 (82 to 2)<br />

a<br />

Positive<br />

likelihood<br />

ratio<br />

(95%<br />

confidence<br />

interval)<br />

0.2 (0.0 to<br />

1.2) a<br />

2.3 (1.3 to<br />

3.9) a<br />

1.3 (0.6 to<br />

2.9) b<br />

1.2 (0.9 to<br />

1.6) b<br />

1.6 (0.9 to<br />

3.0) a<br />

5.4 (3.7 to<br />

7.9)<br />

1.2 (0.5 to<br />

2.9) a<br />

0.6 (0.2 to<br />

1.6) a<br />

1.6 (1.2 to<br />

2.2) a<br />

1.9 (1.1 to<br />

3.4) a<br />

Negative<br />

likelihood<br />

ratio<br />

(95%<br />

confidence<br />

interval)<br />

2.7 (1.7 to<br />

4.1) a<br />

0.7 (0.5 to<br />

0.9) a<br />

0.9 (0.8 to<br />

1.2) b<br />

0.9 (0.8 to<br />

1.1) b<br />

1.0 (0.9 to<br />

1.0) a<br />

0.1 (0.1 to<br />

0.3)<br />

0.9 (0.6 to<br />

1.4) a<br />

1.0 (1.0 to<br />

1.1) a<br />

0.8 (0.6 to<br />

0.9) a<br />

0.8 (0.7 to<br />

1.0) a<br />

Quality<br />

Low<br />

Modera<br />

te<br />

Very<br />

low<br />

Low<br />

Very<br />

low<br />

Modera<br />

te<br />

Modera<br />

te<br />

Modera<br />

te<br />

Low<br />

Low

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