Carl%20Sagan%20-%20The%20Demon%20Haunted%20World

Significance Junkies
related but contrary myth that someone batting below his average
is 'due' to make a hit. This is no more true than that a few heads in
a row makes the chance of flipping tails next time anything other
than 50 per cent. If there are streaks beyond what you'd expect
statistically, they're hard to find.
But somehow this doesn't satisfy. It doesn't feel true. Ask the
players, or the coaches, or the fans. We seek meaning, even in
random numbers. We're significance junkies. When the celebrated
coach Red Auerbach heard of Gilovich's study, his
response was: 'Who is this guy? So he makes a study. I couldn't
care less.' And you know exactly how he feels. But if basketball
streaks don't show up more often than sequences of heads or tails,
there's nothing magical about them. Does this reduce players to
mere marionettes, manipulated by the laws of chance? Certainly
not. Their average shooting percentages are a true reflection of
their personal skills. This is only about the frequency and duration
of streaks.
Of course, it's much more fun to think that the gods have
touched the player who's on a streak and scorned the one with a
cold hand. So what? What's the harm of a little mystification? It
sure beats boring statistical analyses. In basketball, in sports, no
harm. But as a habitual way of thinking, it gets us into trouble in
some of the other games we like to play.
'Scientist, yes; mad, no' giggles the mad scientist on 'Gilligan's
Island' as he adjusts the electronic device that permits him to
control the minds of others for his own nefarious purpose.
'I'm sorry, Dr Nerdnik, the people of Earth will not appreciate
being shrunk to three inches high, even if it will save room and
energy . . .' The cartoon superhero is patiently explaining an
ethical dilemma to the typical scientist portrayed on Saturdaymorning
children's television.
Many of these so-called scientists - judging from the programmes
I've seen (and plausible inference about ones I
haven't, such as the Mad Scientist's 'Toon Club) - are moral
cripples driven by a lust for power or endowed with a spectacular
insensitivity to the feelings of others. The message conveyed
to the moppet audience is that science is dangerous and
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