Carl%20Sagan%20-%20The%20Demon%20Haunted%20World

THE DEMON-HAUNTED WORLD
knowledgeably? Then the bamboozle has free rein.
So how is shamanistic or theological or New Age doctrine different
from quantum mechanics? The answer is that even if we cannot
understand it, we can verify that quantum mechanics works. We can
compare the quantitative predictions of quantum theory with the
measured wavelengths of spectral lines of the chemical elements, the
behaviour of semiconductors and liquid helium, microprocessors,
which kinds of molecules form from their constituent atoms, the
existence and properties of white dwarf stars, what happens in
masers and lasers, and which materials are susceptible to which kinds
of magnetism. We don't have to understand the theory to see what it
predicts. We don't have to be accomplished physicists to read what
the experiments reveal. In every one of these instances, as in many
others, the predictions of quantum mechanics are strikingly, and to
high accuracy, confirmed.
But the shaman tells us that his doctrine is true because it too
works - not on arcane matters of mathematical physics but on what
really counts: he can cure people. Very well, then, let's accumulate
the statistics on shamanistic cures, and see if they work better than
placebos. If they do, let's willingly grant that there's something here
- even if it's only that some illnesses are psychogenic, and can be
cured or mitigated by the right attitudes and mental states. We can
also compare the efficacy of alternative shamanistic systems.
Whether the shaman grasps why his cures work is another story.
In quantum mechanics we have a purported understanding of
Nature on the basis of which, step by step and quantitatively, we
make predictions about what will happen if a certain experiment,
never before attempted, is carried out. If the experiment bears out
the prediction - especially if it does so numerically and precisely -
we have confidence that we knew what we were doing. There are
at best few examples with this character among shamans, priests
and New Age gurus.
Another important distinction was suggested in Reason and
Nature, the 1931 book by Morris Cohen, a celebrated philosopher
of science:
To be sure, the vast majority of people who are untrained can
accept the results of science only on authority. But there is
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