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Water Reconciliation Strategy Study for the Large Bulk Water Supply Systems: Greater Bloemfontein Area 17 Low Growth Water Requirement Scenario will take place on account of low population growth and low economic growth. It was decided to base the low growth scenario on a growth in water requirement of 1% per annum. Figure 4.7 presents the proposed high and low water requirement scenarios. The actual water requirement is also shown on the graph. The high and low water requirement projections have been projected from the 2009 base for the following reasons: There were significant summer rains in the 2011 and this may have resulted in a depressed demand. It is still too early to ascertain whether or not the drop in 2010 can be ascribed to structural reasons (e.g. improved metering, WC/WDM) or is as a result of climatic influences. It is conservative to plan from a higher base. As future years actual water requirements become known, the base from which the projections are made can always be changed. Figure 4.7: Water Requirement Scenarios for the Study Area Important Qualification High Growth Scenario (3%) Actual Water Requirement Low Growth Scenario (1% p.a.) It is important to note that the water requirement scenarios presented above were developed during a global economic crisis. The global recession and a slow recovery from this recession are likely to have significant implications for water requirement growth projections for the Greater Bloemfontein Water Supply System. The implications of the recession for the strategy to meet future water requirements are as follows: The economic uncertainty increases uncertainty concerning the growth in water requirements. Water use must be continuously and carefully monitored; Future scenarios/projections need to be revised frequently, based on updated information; Planning to increase water availability needs to be as flexible as possible; and Interventions that are more flexible in terms of timing should be favoured, all other considerations being equal. Interventions Report June 2012
Water Reconciliation Strategy Study for the Large Bulk Water Supply Systems: Greater Bloemfontein Area 18 4.2.5 Agricultural Water Requirements The only expected growth in irrigation requirements is the allocation of 12 000 ha to resource poor farmers. The effect of the 12 000 ha (4 000 ha for the Upper Orange WMA, 4 000 ha for the Lower Orange WMA, and 4 000 ha for the Fish-Tsitsikamma WMA) is estimated to be in the region of 114 m³/a. The Implementation Strategy for the development of 3 000 ha irrigation in the Free State Province indicates that there is ± 200 ha available near Ficksburg (Caledon River) and ± 2 000 ha available next to the Orange- Riet Canal, which starts at the Vanderkloof Dam. The agricultural water requirement for the 200 ha near Ficksburg was taken into account in the determination of the available yield. Interventions Report June 2012
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