Volume II - The Northern Cape Provincial Spatial Development ...

Volume II - The Northern Cape Provincial Spatial Development ... Volume II - The Northern Cape Provincial Spatial Development ...

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Table 3.2: Summary of indicator groupings for towns and municipalities Natural Resources (11)∗ Human Resources (3) Composite Resource Potential Index (14) Transportation and Composite Infrastructure Communications (4) Institutional Services (8) Economic Sectors (5) Index (12) Composite Development Potential Index (40) Commercial Services (3) Composite Economic Market and Accessibility (4) Property Market (2) Activities Index (14) Human Development Composite Needs Needs (19) Composite Needs Index (19) Index (19) ∗This number refers to the number of variables in each indicator group (See Table 3.4) Although the main focus of this study is to identify those towns in the province that have inherent positive growth and development potential, it is also incumbent upon the analysis to provide guidelines that will allow formulation of nuanced policies for handling places with low growth potential, but where human needs are high. To this end another set of variables measuring a fourth dimension on human development needs was derived. These themes and sub-themes not only comply with the requirements set out in the NSDP and Northern Cape PGDS policy documents, but also with the guidelines distilled from the international literature. Apart from giving a cross-sectional perspective on the status quo in the 115 urban places, the study also endeavours to add a regional and contextual element to the analysis by computing and mapping the same set of indices ∗ for the 32 local municipalities, principally based on 2007 data. Change analysis at local municipality level is done by comparing 2001 data with 2007 data. Unfortunately not all variables included in the analysis for towns were available to measure changes at the municipal level between 2001 and 2007. Some variables are not meaningful at a municipal level for comparative purposes, such as the presence of a municipal seat, whilst others don’t change over time. The 27 variables in Table 3.3 were used for the measurement of change at municipal level. ∗ In the case of municipalities, two variables (municipal seat and urban functional index) were not significant and omitted – thus leaving 57 variables for the measurements at municipal level and 59 at town level. 27

Table 3.3: Summary of indicator groupings for change at municipality level. Human Resources (3) Composite Development Potential Economic Sectors (5) Index (10) Market Potential (2) Human Development Needs (17) Composite Needs Index (17) A detailed explanation of how the values for different variables in the data matrix were derived will now be provided. Combined quantitative indicators indexing each of the urban development dimensions were devised by standardizing the selected individual variables and summing the standardized z-scores to derive compound indices. Standardized z-scores are computed by the formula: z = ( x − x ) / sd ik Where: ik k k x ik = Raw value of variable k for town i x k = Mean value of variable k for all towns in the province sdk = Standard deviation of variable k. The z-score of variable k has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of 1.0. This means that towns that have values above the provincial average for a particular variable have positive z-scores, whereas towns that have negative z-scores have values below the provincial average. Those towns with values close to the average have small deviations from zero, whereas those that have large positive or negative z-scores are substantially above or below the mean for the province. As z-scores for different variables are comparable, these were aggregated to create the various indices. The index values represent the mean of the z-scores. See Table 3.4 for details regarding the specific variables used to create the compound indices for each of the levels of analysis. The table provides a brief explanation of the data sources and statistical procedures used to generate each of the variables for respectively the 115 towns and the 32 municipalities. Each of the indices and their derivation is discussed in the following section. 3.3 Indices for present status of towns and municipalities Firstly the indicators for the “present” cross-sectional profiles of the towns and municipalities will be explained. 28

Table 3.3: Summary of indicator groupings for change at municipality level.<br />

Human Resources (3)<br />

Composite <strong>Development</strong> Potential<br />

Economic Sectors (5)<br />

Index (10)<br />

Market Potential (2)<br />

Human <strong>Development</strong> Needs (17) Composite Needs Index (17)<br />

A detailed explanation of how the values for different variables in the data matrix were<br />

derived will now be provided. Combined quantitative indicators indexing each of the urban<br />

development dimensions were devised by standardizing the selected individual variables and<br />

summing the standardized z-scores to derive compound indices. Standardized z-scores are<br />

computed by the formula:<br />

z = ( x − x ) / sd<br />

ik<br />

Where:<br />

ik<br />

k<br />

k<br />

x ik = Raw value of variable k for town i<br />

x k = Mean value of variable k for all towns in the province<br />

sdk = Standard deviation of variable k.<br />

<strong>The</strong> z-score of variable k has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of 1.0. This<br />

means that towns that have values above the provincial average for a particular variable have<br />

positive z-scores, whereas towns that have negative z-scores have values below the provincial<br />

average. Those towns with values close to the average have small deviations from zero,<br />

whereas those that have large positive or negative z-scores are substantially above or below<br />

the mean for the province. As z-scores for different variables are comparable, these were<br />

aggregated to create the various indices. <strong>The</strong> index values represent the mean of the z-scores.<br />

See Table 3.4 for details regarding the specific variables used to create the compound indices<br />

for each of the levels of analysis. <strong>The</strong> table provides a brief explanation of the data sources<br />

and statistical procedures used to generate each of the variables for respectively the 115 towns<br />

and the 32 municipalities. Each of the indices and their derivation is discussed in the<br />

following section.<br />

3.3 Indices for present status of towns and municipalities<br />

Firstly the indicators for the “present” cross-sectional profiles of the towns and municipalities<br />

will be explained.<br />

28

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