Facts and Arguments about the Introduction of Initiative and ...
Facts and Arguments about the Introduction of Initiative and ...
Facts and Arguments about the Introduction of Initiative and ...
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5-1: The art <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> citizens’ initiative<br />
Below is a checklist <strong>of</strong> some basic rules that must be taken<br />
into account when launching a citizens’ initiative. The most<br />
important sources are: Jim Shultz, ‘The <strong>Initiative</strong> Cookbook’,<br />
<strong>and</strong> Michael Seipel & Thomas Maier, ‘Triumph der<br />
Bürger!’ (The Citizens’ Triumph!).<br />
General rules<br />
• Usually, <strong>the</strong> side that convinces <strong>the</strong> undecided or floating<br />
voters wins.<br />
• The strongest force behind <strong>the</strong> politics <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> referendum is<br />
public discontent. One should carefully establish whe<strong>the</strong>r<br />
<strong>the</strong>re is discontent <strong>and</strong> whe<strong>the</strong>r this can be mobilised.<br />
• Referendum initiatives usually have majority public backing<br />
to begin with. This tends to drop <strong>of</strong>f during <strong>the</strong> campaign<br />
under pressure from <strong>the</strong> opponents. A slide from a<br />
70% to a 51% support position can happen quite easily; a<br />
move in <strong>the</strong> reverse direction is far harder.<br />
• Referendums are lost on <strong>the</strong> weakest point in <strong>the</strong> proposal.<br />
If <strong>the</strong> proposal has a weak point somewhere, <strong>the</strong> opponents<br />
will focus on that <strong>and</strong> exaggerate <strong>the</strong> weakness.<br />
Voters have very little inclination to vote for a proposal<br />
that has an obvious weak point, even when <strong>the</strong> main body<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> proposal is sound.<br />
• Polarisation is inevitable. The voters must clearly see who<br />
is for <strong>and</strong> against <strong>the</strong> proposal <strong>and</strong> why.<br />
• Being able to show that ones opponents have a financial<br />
interest in <strong>the</strong> outcome is an extraordinarily effective way<br />
<strong>of</strong> winning support.<br />
Questions at <strong>the</strong> outset<br />
• Is <strong>the</strong>re sufficient public support? Opinion polls can be used,<br />
but remember that public opinion is fickle <strong>and</strong> can change.<br />
• Is <strong>the</strong>re a simple, winning message? Compare <strong>the</strong> opponents’<br />
possible message or key slogan with your own.<br />
• How strong is <strong>the</strong> support base? Are <strong>the</strong>re enough organisations<br />
that can step into <strong>the</strong> spotlight? Are <strong>the</strong> organisations<br />
that <strong>the</strong> public would naturally expect to support <strong>the</strong><br />
initiative also actually in favour <strong>of</strong> it?<br />
• Is <strong>the</strong>re any money? Fundraising must start early. The<br />
funding must be clear <strong>and</strong> underst<strong>and</strong>able. It must also<br />
be realistic <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> accounts must always be up to date<br />
<strong>and</strong> readily available (e.g. for <strong>the</strong> media).<br />
• Is <strong>the</strong>re expertise readily available? Ensure that <strong>the</strong>re are<br />
enough people capable <strong>of</strong> dealing with technical problems<br />
or political disturbances during debates <strong>and</strong> speeches.<br />
• Is it possible to take advantage <strong>of</strong> any general or local elections?<br />
Holding <strong>the</strong> referendum at <strong>the</strong> same time as elections<br />
can help to increase turnout – important if <strong>the</strong>re are<br />
turnout quorums.<br />
Phrasing <strong>the</strong> question<br />
• The initiative/referendum proposal must be clear <strong>and</strong><br />
precise. The wording must be unambiguous <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> proposal<br />
must be made public as early as possible.<br />
• The proposal must be drawn up with all <strong>the</strong> potential<br />
allies in mind. Do not include irrelevant aspects that<br />
might frighten <strong>of</strong>f possible allies. The opposite is also<br />
possible: ‘fence sitters’ (organisations that tend to adopt<br />
a neutral position) can take part in <strong>the</strong> coalition if certain<br />
aspects that are important to <strong>the</strong>m are included.<br />
3<br />
• The proposal must be drawn up with <strong>the</strong> public in mind.<br />
Does <strong>the</strong> proposal have a broad appeal? Does it have an<br />
Achilles heel?<br />
• Will <strong>the</strong> authorities accept <strong>the</strong> referendum result as binding?<br />
If not, <strong>the</strong>n tying political parties to it can be an option:<br />
get <strong>the</strong>m to promise to accept <strong>the</strong> result well before<br />
<strong>the</strong> referendum.<br />
• If <strong>the</strong>re is a victory in <strong>the</strong> referendum, can <strong>the</strong> result be<br />
contested in <strong>the</strong> courts? (Obtain legal advice)<br />
Coalition<br />
• A coalition which includes unusual allies streng<strong>the</strong>ns <strong>the</strong><br />
credibility <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> initiative (e.g. ‘conservative’ <strong>and</strong> ‘progressive’<br />
political parties, employers <strong>and</strong> employees, etc.)<br />
• The core partners <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> coalition must be available from<br />
<strong>the</strong> start.<br />
• Good agreements between coalition partners <strong>about</strong> funding,<br />
a common public position, <strong>the</strong> division <strong>of</strong> duties <strong>and</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> appointment <strong>of</strong> spokesmen <strong>and</strong> -women are essential.<br />
Signature collection<br />
• Shultz writes: “The Zen <strong>of</strong> signature ga<strong>the</strong>ring is, don’t<br />
argue with anyone.” Signature collection <strong>and</strong> campaigning<br />
are <strong>the</strong>refore best done separately. Being tempted into<br />
a discussion lasting a quarter <strong>of</strong> an hour or more with one<br />
or more passers-by is not an efficient use <strong>of</strong> time during<br />
a signature ga<strong>the</strong>ring campaign. You have to try to maximize<br />
productivity when collecting signatures.<br />
• Make <strong>the</strong> link to <strong>the</strong> next step in <strong>the</strong> campaign. Signature<br />
collection enables <strong>the</strong> volunteers to build up some reserves<br />
<strong>of</strong> effort <strong>and</strong> commitment. If <strong>the</strong>se reserves are neglected<br />
when <strong>the</strong> signature threshold has been achieved,<br />
it makes it more difficult to remobilise <strong>the</strong> real campaign<br />
some months later.<br />
• Monitor <strong>the</strong> validity <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> signatures. Signatures can be<br />
obtained from people with <strong>the</strong> wrong place <strong>of</strong> residence or<br />
nationality, or names <strong>and</strong> addresses can be unreadable or<br />
wrong. You should take an invalidity rate <strong>of</strong> 10% to 20%<br />
into account.<br />
• Arrange a media event for <strong>the</strong> submission <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> signatures.<br />
The campaign<br />
• “Keep it simple <strong>and</strong> repeat <strong>the</strong> central message over <strong>and</strong><br />
over again.”<br />
• Also appeal to people’s emotions. Someone who appears<br />
both expertly <strong>and</strong> emotionally committed comes across<br />
well.<br />
• Retain a strong hold on <strong>the</strong> initiative during debates. Anyone<br />
who gets pinned down by <strong>the</strong>ir opponent on a sidetrack<br />
has lost. Beware <strong>of</strong> sneak attacks, particularly on <strong>the</strong><br />
campaign’s integrity.<br />
• In particular, established parties with power almost always<br />
play on public uncertainty <strong>and</strong> fears <strong>and</strong> drag up<br />
unrelated issues. You have to consciously anticipate this.<br />
References to foreign precedents in connection with <strong>the</strong><br />
proposal can be effective in disarming fear scenarios.<br />
• Parties in power will also address <strong>the</strong> public as individuals<br />
(‘Your social security’ instead <strong>of</strong> ‘Our ...’) <strong>and</strong> link this<br />
to an appeal for confidence in ‘solid values’, meaning <strong>the</strong><br />
parties in power <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir leaders. Remedy: address <strong>the</strong><br />
public as a group <strong>of</strong> responsible people seeking common<br />
ground with each o<strong>the</strong>r.