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the coking properties of coal at elevated pressures. - Argonne ...

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5360-096bw<br />

bed d<strong>at</strong>a. Best fit is defined by a small devi<strong>at</strong>ion between predicted and<br />

observed molar flow r<strong>at</strong>es.<br />

would be as follows:<br />

Thus, one expression <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> objective function<br />

where,<br />

s = <strong>the</strong> sum <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> squares <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> devi<strong>at</strong>ions<br />

-<br />

Nijk = a predicted molar flow r<strong>at</strong>e<br />

Nijk = an observed molar flow r<strong>at</strong>e<br />

i = a particular gas component (Hp, CO, C02, CH4, or H20)<br />

j = a particular level <strong>of</strong> carbon in <strong>the</strong> fixed bed reactor<br />

k = a particular fixed bed reactor run<br />

Hunter (8) has shown th<strong>at</strong> use <strong>of</strong> this objective function w i l l yield <strong>the</strong><br />

maximum likelihood estim<strong>at</strong>es for k and b only if <strong>the</strong> following three criteria<br />

are met:<br />

(1) The measurement errors on each <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> five gas species are normally<br />

distributed and <strong>the</strong>se errors are independent.<br />

(2) The variances on <strong>the</strong> measurement errors <strong>of</strong> all <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> five gas<br />

species are identical.<br />

(3) There is no correl<strong>at</strong>ion between <strong>the</strong> measurement errors for any two<br />

gas species.<br />

From <strong>the</strong> design <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> experiment we know th<strong>at</strong> <strong>the</strong> measurements on <strong>the</strong><br />

four fixed gases were rel<strong>at</strong>ed in th<strong>at</strong> <strong>the</strong>y were all sampled simultaneously<br />

by <strong>the</strong> gas chrom<strong>at</strong>ograph and <strong>the</strong> composition was normalized. Therefore, an<br />

error in <strong>the</strong> measurement <strong>of</strong> any one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> four fixed gases would be distributed<br />

among <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r three fixed gases as well. Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore, any error in <strong>the</strong><br />

measurement <strong>of</strong> CO or C02 would result in an error in <strong>the</strong> measurement <strong>of</strong> H20<br />

as well since H20 yield was calcul<strong>at</strong>ed by oxygen balance.<br />

<strong>the</strong>se consider<strong>at</strong>ions, equ<strong>at</strong>ion 2 was not used as <strong>the</strong> objective function for<br />

this study.<br />

Box and Draper (9) have derived <strong>the</strong> following objective function for use<br />

in cases where unquantified covariance exists in <strong>the</strong> experimental measurements:<br />

mi n i mi ze A = det I Snm I<br />

where,<br />

As a result <strong>of</strong><br />

A = <strong>the</strong> determinant <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 5 x 5 m<strong>at</strong>rix composed <strong>of</strong> elements Snm<br />

91

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