storm - Hrvatski memorijalno-dokumentacijski centar Domovinskog ...
storm - Hrvatski memorijalno-dokumentacijski centar Domovinskog ... storm - Hrvatski memorijalno-dokumentacijski centar Domovinskog ...
- inadequate preparation and equipping of the population for personal and mutual protection. In view of the foregoing, the following consequences for the population are estimated: In the zones of intensive action (peripheral settlements, wider areas of tactical lines of assault), 3-5% killed and 10-15% lightly and severely injured. Injuries may involve fi rst and second degree burns. Because of the greater concentration of population, higher building density and, as a rule, higher fi re risk, casualties in towns - possible air raid targets - could amount to 5-10% lightly and 20% severely injured, out of whom up to 5% with fi rst, second and third degree burns. Depending on the features of the settlement/town, building density and type, and fl oor number, part of the population would also be buried under ruins: according to estimates, about 15% would be shallowly, 10% moderately and up to 5% deeply buried. In the zones of a second threat degree the consequences would amount to 20-40% of those in the fi rst degree zones, while third degree zones would not, conditionally speaking, sustain any consequences. It has already been mentioned that settlements possibly taken by the enemy would be totally destroyed. Accordingly, and on the basis of previous experience, mass killings can be expected along with, to a smaller extent, arrests and detention of the remaining population. In addition to these consequences, the population will also be at risk because of the following: - Munitions and explosives of concern (unexploded ordnance) such as artillery shells, aerial bombs etc.. Th eir number can be estimated at 5% of the total. - Since residential buildings will be damaged and ruined, part of the population will be left roofl ess. Along with the current 120,000 refugees and displaced persons, and possible future relocation of the population through organized and planned evacuation or self-initiated departure from the zone of intensive action, this will make relief of the population a much more complex mission. - Th e declining standard of living and living conditions, lack of products for personal and general hygiene and extensive migration will further aggravate the already poor hygiene-epidemiological situation. Th e situation will also deteriorate because of diffi culties or complete breakdown of water supply due to the destruction of water supply facilities, damage on the water supply and power network, and possible spills of fecal water. Such conditions will favour the spread of infectious diseases and epidemics. Th e damage or burning of certain industrial facilities containing hazardous material can lead to chemical accidents posing a particular risk for the population. Every municipality needs to determine such facilities and the types of hazardous materials liable to develop and propagate in specifi c circumstances, prepare special estimates 300
of risk in specifi c weather, and plan the measures and procedures for protection and mitigation of possible consequences. Livestock and crops, and products therefrom, will be particularly jeopardized. Livestock diseases (zoonoses) are likely to develop in such conditions. Th erefore, particular care is required in protecting animals, foodstuff s of animal origin, and crops and plant products. Th e overall consequences will become additionally serious if combined with natural disasters such as earthquakes, fl oods or drought. Th ey would further complicate protection and rescue operations. Th erefore, every municipality also needs to prepare appropriate protection assessments and plans for specifi c natural disasters liable to aff ect it. II ASSESSMENT OF NEEDS AND POSSIBLE PROTECTION AND RESCUE OPERATIONS 1. Preparation and organization of personal and mutual protection Out of the total population (430,000), 60% or 260,000 are able-bodied. If about 20% of the total can be engaged in SVK and MUP units, agencies and services, and about 5% (110,000) in civil defence, this leaves about 150,000 persons who can be organized, prepared and trained for personal and mutual protection measures. Even if part of the population has attended earlier training courses for general purpose or specialized civil defence units, and fi rst aid courses (school programmes, drivers etc.), the population is not adequately prepared for personal and mutual protection. Th e possible involvement of the population in implementing personal and mutual protection is hampered by the lack of standard personal and collective protection equipment. Owing to this degree of preparation and equipment, the population can be employed for preventive measures such as guiding people to shelters, blacking out and fi re protection, and use of materials and equipment available at hand for fi rst-aid (personal and mutual), fi ghting initial and small fi res, rescuing shallowly buried people and general care. Wellorganized personal and mutual protection along with well-trained civil defence wardens can mitigate the overall consequences by about 40%. 2. Organization and functioning of protection and rescue measures - needs and possibilities About 490,000 shelter places would have to be provided, out of which: - in residential areas 340,000 - in companies and institutions (including kindergartens and schools) 105,000 - in public areas 45,000 With respect to the estimated zones at risk and the degree of protection off ered by specifi c shelter facilities, the population will require 301
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of risk in specifi c weather, and plan the measures and procedures for protection and<br />
mitigation of possible consequences.<br />
Livestock and crops, and products therefrom, will be particularly jeopardized. Livestock<br />
diseases (zoonoses) are likely to develop in such conditions. Th erefore, particular care<br />
is required in protecting animals, foodstuff s of animal origin, and crops and plant<br />
products.<br />
Th e overall consequences will become additionally serious if combined with natural<br />
disasters such as earthquakes, fl oods or drought. Th ey would further complicate<br />
protection and rescue operations.<br />
Th erefore, every municipality also needs to prepare appropriate protection assessments<br />
and plans for specifi c natural disasters liable to aff ect it.<br />
II ASSESSMENT OF NEEDS AND POSSIBLE PROTECTION AND RESCUE OPERATIONS<br />
1. Preparation and organization of personal and mutual protection<br />
Out of the total population (430,000), 60% or 260,000 are able-bodied. If about 20%<br />
of the total can be engaged in SVK and MUP units, agencies and services, and about<br />
5% (110,000) in civil defence, this leaves about 150,000 persons who can be organized,<br />
prepared and trained for personal and mutual protection measures.<br />
Even if part of the population has attended earlier training courses for general purpose<br />
or specialized civil defence units, and fi rst aid courses (school programmes, drivers<br />
etc.), the population is not adequately prepared for personal and mutual protection. Th e<br />
possible involvement of the population in implementing personal and mutual protection<br />
is hampered by the lack of standard personal and collective protection equipment.<br />
Owing to this degree of preparation and equipment, the population can be employed for<br />
preventive measures such as guiding people to shelters, blacking out and fi re protection,<br />
and use of materials and equipment available at hand for fi rst-aid (personal and mutual),<br />
fi ghting initial and small fi res, rescuing shallowly buried people and general care. Wellorganized<br />
personal and mutual protection along with well-trained civil defence wardens<br />
can mitigate the overall consequences by about 40%.<br />
2. Organization and functioning of protection and rescue measures - needs and<br />
possibilities<br />
About 490,000 shelter places would have to be provided, out of which:<br />
- in residential areas 340,000<br />
- in companies and institutions (including kindergartens and schools) 105,000<br />
- in public areas 45,000<br />
With respect to the estimated zones at risk and the degree of protection off ered by specifi c<br />
shelter facilities, the population will require<br />
301
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