storm - Hrvatski memorijalno-dokumentacijski centar Domovinskog ...

- inadequate preparation and equipping of the population for personal and mutual
protection.
In view of the foregoing, the following consequences for the population are estimated:
In the zones of intensive action (peripheral settlements, wider areas of tactical lines of
assault), 3-5% killed and 10-15% lightly and severely injured. Injuries may involve fi rst
and second degree burns.
Because of the greater concentration of population, higher building density and, as a
rule, higher fi re risk, casualties in towns - possible air raid targets - could amount to
5-10% lightly and 20% severely injured, out of whom up to 5% with fi rst, second and
third degree burns.
Depending on the features of the settlement/town, building density and type, and fl oor
number, part of the population would also be buried under ruins: according to estimates,
about 15% would be shallowly, 10% moderately and up to 5% deeply buried.
In the zones of a second threat degree the consequences would amount to 20-40%
of those in the fi rst degree zones, while third degree zones would not, conditionally
speaking, sustain any consequences.
It has already been mentioned that settlements possibly taken by the enemy would be
totally destroyed. Accordingly, and on the basis of previous experience, mass killings
can be expected along with, to a smaller extent, arrests and detention of the remaining
population.
In addition to these consequences, the population will also be at risk because of the
following:
- Munitions and explosives of concern (unexploded ordnance) such as artillery shells,
aerial bombs etc.. Th eir number can be estimated at 5% of the total.
- Since residential buildings will be damaged and ruined, part of the population will
be left roofl ess. Along with the current 120,000 refugees and displaced persons, and
possible future relocation of the population through organized and planned evacuation
or self-initiated departure from the zone of intensive action, this will make relief of the
population a much more complex mission.
- Th e declining standard of living and living conditions, lack of products for personal
and general hygiene and extensive migration will further aggravate the already poor
hygiene-epidemiological situation.
Th e situation will also deteriorate because of diffi culties or complete breakdown of water
supply due to the destruction of water supply facilities, damage on the water supply and
power network, and possible spills of fecal water. Such conditions will favour the spread
of infectious diseases and epidemics.
Th e damage or burning of certain industrial facilities containing hazardous material can
lead to chemical accidents posing a particular risk for the population.
Every municipality needs to determine such facilities and the types of hazardous materials
liable to develop and propagate in specifi c circumstances, prepare special estimates
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