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- the degree of territory vulnerability in the combat area;<br />

- functioning of the observation and information services, and timely alarming of the<br />

population;<br />

- degree of shelter completion;<br />

- preventive protection measures.<br />

Th e most intensive action and the largest quantity of weapons will be focused on<br />

settlements in the zone of the fi rst threat degree and along the approved tactical lines of<br />

assault.<br />

Th e consequences of artillery and aircraft action will involve the following:<br />

- destruction, knocking out or damage of industrial, traffi c, residential and other<br />

facilities;<br />

- congestion of traffi c facilities, particularly in larger urban settlements - towns;<br />

- damage of public utilities, plants and installations (water supply facilities, pumping<br />

stations and storage reservoirs; water supply, sewage, power, postal, telephone and<br />

telegraph networks);<br />

- fi res of varying scope in residential and industrial facilities; fi res set by incendiary<br />

weapons in woods and crops;<br />

- blasting and torching of facilities in parts of the territory possibly taken by the enemy,<br />

including the destruction of cultural and material goods.<br />

Th e extent of destruction, knocking out or damage of residential buildings in the zone<br />

of most intensive action (peripheral villages and towns) may reach 80%, with 20-40% of<br />

units sustaining damage preventing their use.<br />

Air raids against towns can be expected to cause a 5-15% rate of destruction of up to 5%<br />

of aff ected residential units, possible damage or knocking out of vital public utilities, and<br />

considerable damage of the municipal infrastructure.<br />

Th e town streets would be congested and according to estimates a maximum of about<br />

20% would be rendered unserviceable because of caving-in. Considerable damage would<br />

also be wrought on industrial facilities, food warehouses, silos and reservoirs.<br />

Th e destruction of facilities/buildings will regularly be associated with a number of small<br />

fi res (non-extinguished burners, ranges etc., burning electrical installations), some of<br />

which may develop into major fi res depending on timely intervention and the quantity<br />

of infl ammable material present on the site of the fi re. Larger fi res are more likely if<br />

incendiary weapons are used, or if petrol stations or infl ammable material storage<br />

facilities catch fi re.<br />

Experience acquired during previous actions by the Croatian army and occupation of the<br />

Republic of Serbian Krajina warrants the conclusion that the possibly occupied places<br />

will be totally destroyed.<br />

Th e population will suff er owing to the use of various weapons. A higher number of<br />

casualties among the population can be expected because of<br />

- lack of basic shelters;<br />

- inadequate number of auxiliary shelters, cellars and other suitable facilities;<br />

- delayed warning (no automatic activation of alarm sirens; limited time of seeking<br />

refuge in shelters);<br />

299

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