January 17, 2013 PDF Edition - Wilbraham-Hampden Times

January 17, 013 The Wilbraham-Hampden TIMES
Page
Study shows school enrollment declining
Should Memorial School
be retained for future?
By Janet Wise
Turley Publications Correspondent
WILBRAHAM – A recent demographic
study for the School District
found that in recent years the district’s enrollment
has been declining, and the New
England School Development Council is
forecasting that the enrollment will continue
to decline.
However, the study indicated that
any forecast is most reliable in the first
five years, and that in years six to 10 years
enrollment may flatten or even begin to
increase.
The Council (NESDEC) recently
completed a demography and facilities
usage study for the Hampden-Wilbraham
Regional School District and presented
that portion of the results to the school
committee at their Jan. 8 meeting.
John Kennedy of NESDEC addressed
the school committee, focusing primarily
on the demographic information and its
impact on enrollment trends going forward
in the district. Kennedy will present the facilities
usage portion of the presentation at
a future school committee meeting.
The demographic study was conducted
by examining a number of different
sources, including U.S. Census
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data from 1990, 2000, and 2010, as well
as housing data from the Warren Group,
the local planning department, Realtors,
the building inspector, and information
gained from a conference of the New
England Economic Partnership in December
2012.
Common Trend
Historically, including non-resident
enrollments, enrollment in the district
from kindergarten through grade 12 has
declined significantly in the past decade,
with an overall decline of more than 10
percent. Most of this decline occurred in
grades K through 6, with grades 9 through
12 enrollments remaining fairly stable.
Kennedy reported that this trend is fairly
common in New England.
Looking at the birth rate compared to
kindergarten enrollment, the school district’s
enrollment exceeds the birth rate,
which indicates that people are moving
into the community, quite possibly because
the school system has a good reputation.
When examining projected enrollment,
which again includes non-resident,
choice-based students, there is a projected
decline of 14 percent in the next decade.
This decline is expected to occur primarily
at the new Minnechaug Regional
High school, rather than at the elementary
school.
Kennedy, however, pointed out that
the new high school is quite possibly going
to draw people into the community;
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as he put it, “nobody is going to drive
through the community and say ‘gee, we
don’t want our children going to that high
school.’”
While the NESDEC study forecast
that in the relative short term (i.e., next
five years) enrollment in the district will
continue to decline, it also offered up the
possibility that in the latter half of the next
decade, enrollment may actually increase.
The factors behind this increase, according
to Kennedy, are two-fold: First,
near the end of the decade, the child-rearing
cohort, or group of people of childbearing
age, may very well increase,
causing the birth rate to rise. In addition,
there’s a distinct possibility that there’s a
significant potential for residential growth,
either because of the turnover of housing
or new construction.
Kennedy pointed out that in both
Hampden and Wilbraham, the current median
age of the population is relatively old
– over age 45 – compared to the state or
even the country. This will have an impact
down the road.
Empty Nesters
Many of those age 45 plus in the
community are empty nesters, living in
homes with three or four bedrooms, and
many are looking to downsize. Housing
prices are starting to rebound, and there
are age-restricted condominium complexes
in both Hampden and Wilbraham,
such as The Gardens of Wilbraham or Tall
Pines in Hampden, which offer local baby
Hampden-Wilbraham Regional School District
621 Main Street, Wilbraham, MA 01095
KINDERGARTEN REGISTRATION
Hampden-Wilbraham Regional School District Kindergarten registration
will be held at Green Meadows School in Hampden on
Tuesday, March 5, 2013, from 1:00 to 6:00 p.m. and Thursday,
March 7, 2013, from 9:00 to 11:00 a.m.,and at Mile Tree School in
Wilbraham on Tuesday, March 5, 2013, and Wednesday, March 6,
2013, from 6:00 to 7:30 p.m. by appointment only. Children eligible
to begin kindergarten for the 2013-2014 school year must be five
years of age on or before August 31, 2013. Parents must bring their
child’s original birth certificate, health records, and appropriate
legal documents to registration. Kindergarten screening will take
place at a later date. Both schools will begin accepting Kindergarten
registration appointments on February 1, 2013. For further information
and to make your kindergarten registration appointment
Hampden residents may call Green Meadows School at 566-3263
and Wilbraham residents may call Mile Tree School at 596-6921.
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boomers the ability to downsize yet still
remain nearby friends and family.
The NESDEC study suggests that the
houses vacated by baby boomers will then
be purchased by families with school-age
children, particularly since the school
system has a good reputation and there is
a new high school in place, which could
very well increase the enrollment in the
latter half of the decade.
Kennedy also pointed out that there is
an amount of buildable acreage available
in both communities, and also indicated
that a casino is a distinct possibility in the
Springfield area, which would stimulate
economic and residential growth.
Given all of these factors, the NES-
DEC study suggests that enrollment in the
district may potentially increase at some
point in the next decade.
The study’s capacity enrollment
analysis points to a scarcity of space at the
elementary level in the remainder of the
decade, so even if enrollment does not increase,
space will be tight. And if enrollment
does increase, based on the factors
pointed out by Kennedy in his presentation,
there is a need to maintain reserve
capacity.
The upshot of all of this and the recommendation
of the NESDEC study is
that the Memorial School be retained for
future use by the school district.
Correspondent Janet Wise can be
reached at j_mac4@hotmail.com
Red Hats lunch meeting Feb. 12
WILBRAHAM – The Red Hat Ya Ya
Sisterhood of Wilbraham will meet on a
Tuesday, Feb. 12 instead of a Wednesday
because of Ash Wednesday. Called “Let’s
Do Lunch”, they will order off the menu
at Krazy Jakes on Boston Road in Wilbra-
ham beginning at 12:30 p.m.
If you are ordering seafood, let the
chairladies know when making reservations:
Ginene Johnson at 525-4969 or
Ginni McCombe at 525-2916. The deadline
for reservations is Jan. 31.
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