Documentation of the Evaluation of CALPUFF and Other Long ...

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2.0 0.0 ‐2.0 ‐4.0 ‐6.0 ‐8.0 ‐10.0 ‐12.0 ‐14.0 2.0 EPA1998_PG EPA1998_CAL BASEA_AER BASEA_CAL BASEA_PG EXP1A_AER EXP1A_CAL EXP1A_PG EXP1B_AER EXP1B_CAL EXP1B_PG EXP1C_AER EXP1C_CAL EXP1C_PG EXP2A_AER EXP2A_CAL EXP2A_PG EXP2B_AER EXP2B_CAL EXP2B_PG EXP2C_AER EXP2C_CAL EXP2C_PG EXP3A_AER EXP3A_CAL EXP3A_PG EXP3B_AER EXP3B_CAL EXP3B_PG EXP3C_AER EXP3C_CAL EXP3C_PG MMIF12KM_AER MMIF12KM_CAL MMIF12KM_PG MMIF36KM_AER MMIF36KM_CAL MMIF36KM_PG 0.0 ‐2.0 ‐4.0 ‐6.0 ‐8.0 ‐10.0 ‐12.0 ‐14.0 Figure 3‐5. Difference in predicted and observed location of plume centerline (degrees) for the GP10 100 km receptor arc and the CALPUFF sensitivity tests. 39
120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20% EPA1998_PG EPA1998_CAL BASEA_AER BASEA_CAL BASEA_PG EXP1A_AER EXP1A_CAL EXP1A_PG EXP1B_AER EXP1B_CAL EXP1B_PG EXP1C_AER EXP1C_CAL EXP1C_PG EXP2A_AER EXP2A_CAL EXP2A_PG EXP2B_AER EXP2B_CAL EXP2B_PG EXP2C_AER EXP2C_CAL EXP2C_PG EXP3A_AER EXP3A_CAL EXP3A_PG EXP3B_AER EXP3B_CAL EXP3B_PG EXP3C_AER EXP3C_CAL EXP3C_PG MMIF12KM_AER MMIF12KM_CAL MMIF12KM_PG MMIF36KM_AER MMIF36KM_CAL MMIF36KM_PG Figure 3‐6. Percent difference (mean normalized bias) between the predicted and observed cross wind integrated concentration (CWIC) for the GP10 100 km receptor arc and the CALPUFF sensitivity tests. 3.4.2 CALPUFF GP80 Evaluation for the 600 km Arc of Receptors Table 3‐14 lists the predicted and observed plume arrival and exit time statistics from the 600 km arc of receptors and the duration of time the tracer resides on the 600 km arc for the initial CALPUFF sensitivity tests. Note that the observed tracer was found on the 600 km arc during the first sampling period (hour 2 on Julian Day 191) so the observed tracer may have arrived earlier than that. As explained by EPA (1998a), the observed tracer arrived earlier than expected due to the presence of a low‐level jet that was not anticipated. Thus, the observed 12 hour tracer duration on the 600 km receptor arc that assumes it arrived during the first sampling interval at hour 2 could be an underestimate of the actual tracer residence time on the 600 km arc. Figure 3‐7 displays the percent differences in the tracer duration time on the 600 km arc for the initial CALPUFF 600 km sensitivity tests. For most of the initial CALPUFF sensitivity tests, the tracer duration time on the 600 km receptor arc is approximately half (5‐6 hours) of what was observed (12 hours). This is in contrast to the 1998 EPA CALPUFF evaluation runs that overstate 40
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Documentation of the Evaluation of
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FOREWARD This report documents the
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2.4.3 ATMES‐II Model Evaluation A
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ABSTRACT The CALP
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OVERVIEW OF APPROACH Up to six LRT
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CALPUFF performance is evaluated by
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Table ES‐2. ATMES‐II spatial an
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• CALPUFF tended to overstate the
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• The best performing CALPUFF con
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2009a). The key findings from the C
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1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
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2.4 2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0 EXP4A EXP4B
Page 25 and 26: Figure ESS‐4. RANK statistical pe
Page 27 and 28: Evaluatioon of Six LRT T Dispersion
Page 29 and 30: Table ES‐6. Summary of model rank
Page 31 and 32: eproduce the northwest to southeast
Page 33 and 34: ETEX LRT Dispersion Model Sensitivi
Page 35 and 36: CONCLUSIONS OF LRT DISPERSION MODEL
Page 37 and 38: The CAMx and CALGRID Eulerian photo
Page 39 and 40: July 1980. Both experiments examine
Page 41 and 42: 1.3 ORGANIZATION OF REPORT Chapter
Page 43 and 44: puffs expand until they exceed the
Page 45 and 46: that performance evaluation be base
Page 47 and 48: The ETEX real‐time LRT modeling p
Page 49 and 50: The ETEX study has formulated the f
Page 51 and 52: In this study we expand the LRT mod
Page 53 and 54: AM ∩ AP FMS = × 100% (2‐2) A
Page 55 and 56: Factor of α (FAα): FAα represent
Page 57 and 58: 3.0 1980 GREAT PLAINS FIELD STUDY 3
Page 59 and 60: compact discs, which were used to o
Page 61 and 62: ILEVZI = 1 Layer of winds to use in
Page 63 and 64: MCHEM = 0 No chemical transformatio
Page 65 and 66: Table 3‐6. CALPUFF/CALMET experim
Page 67 and 68: Table 3‐11. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitiv
Page 69 and 70: evaluation studies and evaluate whe
Page 71 and 72: Tables 3‐13 and Figures 3‐2 thr
Page 73 and 74: 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Page 75: 30% 20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30%
Page 79 and 80: 20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% ‐
Page 81 and 82: The fitted Gaussian plume statistic
Page 83 and 84: 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% ‐40% ‐5
Page 85 and 86: 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 300
Page 87 and 88: 60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20% ‐40% ‐60%
Page 89 and 90: with APS, implementing the slug opt
Page 91 and 92: the amount of time that the tracer
Page 93 and 94: Figure 4‐1. CALPUFF/CALMET UTM mo
Page 95 and 96: compact discs, which were used to o
Page 97 and 98: Table 4‐4. CALPUFF parameters use
Page 99 and 100: Table 4‐8. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivi
Page 101 and 102: the fitted Gaussian plume is not a
Page 103 and 104: Figure 4‐2. Comparison of predict
Page 105 and 106: Figure 5‐1. Location of Dayton an
Page 107 and 108: MM5 runs, the first without FDDA (i
Page 109 and 110: Table 5‐3. MM5 sensitivity tests
Page 111 and 112: Table 5‐6. Definition of the CALM
Page 113 and 114: performance at the monitor location
Page 115 and 116: 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 35% 3
Page 117 and 118: 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% F
Page 119 and 120: 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% E
Page 121 and 122: 5.4.1.4 Comparison of CALPUFF CTEX3
Page 123 and 124: 0.48 0.36 0.24 0.12 0 ‐0.12 16% 1
Page 125 and 126: CTEX3 discussed in Section 5.4.1. A
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CALPUFF sensitivity simulations are
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14. Across all the spatial statisti
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sensitivity tests. The “B” seri
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‐0.1 ‐0.2 0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
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6.0 1994 EUROPEAN TRACER EXPERIMENT
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Figure 6‐2a. Surface synoptic met
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Figure 6‐3a. Distribution of the
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36 kilometers and the vertical stru
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splitting flag near sunset (hour 17
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experienced during the original ETE
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2 1 0 ‐1 ‐2 3 2 1 0 23‐Oct 23
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70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Figu
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Figure 6‐9. Factor of Exceedance
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eceiving a 0.0 score. Figure 6‐13
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Table 6‐1. Summary of model ranki
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plume spread and observed surface c
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Figure 6‐16c. Comparison of spati
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• NoPiG: The tracer emissions wer
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Using the NMSE statistical performa
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6.4.3.2 Effect of PiG on Model Perf
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80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5
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Table 6‐3. Summary of CALPUFF puf
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0.2 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.
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Figure 6‐ ‐22 displays the t sp
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Figure 6‐ ‐23a. Global model pe
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Figure 6‐24. Figure of Merit (FMS
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7.0 REFERENCES Anderson, B. 2008. T
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EPA, 1984: Interim Procedures for E
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Mlawer, E.J., S.J. Taubman, P.D. Br
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148 Appendix A Evaluation of the MM
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Table A‐1. Wind speed and wind di
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Table A‐3. Definition of the CTEX
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Figure A‐ ‐1. Wind speed bias (
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Figure A‐ ‐3. Humidity bias and
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Table A‐5. Comparison of CTEX5 MM
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B.1 CALMET MODEL EVALUATION TO IDEN
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Figure B‐ ‐1 displays th he win
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Table B‐2a. Summary wind speed mo
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B.2 CONCLUSIONS OF CTEX3 CALMET SEN
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C.1 INTRODUCTION In this section, t
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C.2.2 HYYSPLIT GLOB BAL STATISTIICS
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The final panel in Figure C‐3 (bo
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Figure C‐ ‐5. Global model m pe
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C.3 CAMX SENSITIVITY TESTS Followin
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ACM2 Kzz combinatio ons rank as the
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Figure C‐ ‐10. Spatial model pe
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Figure C‐ ‐12. Global model per
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Figure C‐ ‐13. Spatial model pe
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Table C‐3. CAMx FMS and POD spati
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Figure C‐ ‐20. False Alarm Rate
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Figure C‐ ‐23. Factor of o Exce
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The PCC values for th he six LRT mo
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The RANK statistical performancce m
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Table C‐55. Summary y of model r
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Results foor the TS me etric are pr
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Figure C‐ ‐35. Factor of o 2 (F
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a negativve FB. The best b performm
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performing model the most often sco
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United States Environmental Protect
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