Documentation of the Evaluation of CALPUFF and Other Long ...

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• CALPUFF 100 km (all dispersion options) and 600 km PG dispersion simulations, CALPUFF was set‐up to not allow for partial plume penetration of inversion layer (MPARTL = 0). The IWAQM Phase II (1998) guidance recommends MPARTL = 1. • CALPUFF 600 km AERMOD and CALPUFF turbulence dispersion simulations, CALPUFF was set‐up to use the Probability Density Function (PDF) option for convective dispersion (MPDF = 1). The IWAQM Phase II guidance does not recommend using PDF for convective dispersion. • CALPUFF 600 km simulations and 100 km CALPUFF/MMIF simulations use minimum and maximum mixing height values of 0 m and 6000 m, respectively. The CALPUFF 100 km BASE case and sensitivity simulations use minimum and maximum mixing height values of 20 m and 3300 m, respectively. The 1998 IWAQM Phase II guidance recommends the minimum and maximum mixing heights be set equal to 50 m and 3000 m, respectively. • The CALPUFF 100 km BASE case and sensitivity simulations use a maximum slug length of 0.1 CALMET grid units (XMXLEN = 0.1), whereas the 100 km CALPUFF/MMIF simulations used a maximum length of 1.0 CALMET grid units. The IWAQM Phase II guidance recommends XMXLEN = 1. • The CALPUFF 100 km BASE case and sensitivity simulations use a maximum slug/puff travel distance of 0.1 grid units per sampling period (XSAMLEN = 0.1), whereas the 100 km CALPUFF/MMIF simulations used a maximum travel distance of 1.0 grid units. The IWAQM Phase II guidance recommends XSAMLEN = 1. • The CALPUFF 100 km BASE case and sensitivity simulations use a maximum of 199 slugs/puffs released from one source per sampling step (MXNEW = 199), whereas the 100 km CALPUFF/MMIF simulations used a maximum of 99 new slugs/puffs. The IWAQM Phase II guidance recommends MXNEW = 99. • The CALPUFF 100 km BASE case and sensitivity simulations use a maximum of 5 sampling steps per slug/puff during one time step (MXSAM = 5), whereas the 100 km CALPUFF/MMIF simulations used a maximum of 99 sampling steps per slug/puff. The IWAQM Phase II guidance recommends MXSAM = 99. • The CALPUFF 100 km BASE case and sensitivity simulations use a minimum sigma‐y and sigma‐z value of 0.01 m per new slug/puff (SYMIN = 0.01 and SZMIN = 0.01), whereas the 100 m CALPUFF/MMIF simulations used a minimum sigma‐y and sigma‐z value of 1 m per new slug/puff. The IWAQM Phase II guidance recommends SYMIN = 1 and SZMIN = 1. • The CALPUFF 100 km BASE case and sensitivity simulations use a minimum wind speed of 1 m/s for non‐calm conditions (WSCALM = 1), whereas the 100 km CALPUFF/MMIF simulations used a minimum wind speed of 0.5 m/s. The IWAQM Phase II guidance recommends WSCALM = 0.5. We noted that the date on the CALMET input control file for the BASEA sensitivity test was later than the date on the CALMET output file for BASEA. We reran the BASEA CALMET and CALPUFF sensitivity tests and got slightly different results. 3.4 GP80 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION Previous studies evaluated CALPUFF using the GP80 tracer experiment data using the Irwin plume fitting evaluation approach (EPA, 1998a). Thus, the same approach was adopted in this study so we could compare the performance of the newer version of CALPUFF with past 31
evaluation studies and evaluate whether new options in CALPUFF (e.g., puff splitting) improve CALPUFF’s model performance. 3.4.1 CALPUFF GP80 Evaluation for the 100 km Arc of Receptors Table 3‐12 evaluates the CALPUFF sensitivity tests ability to estimate the timing of the plume arrival at the 100 km arc of receptors and the duration of time the plume resides on the 100 km receptor arc. The tracer was observed on the 100 km arc for 5 hours. The 1998 EPA report CALPUFF modeling matched this well using CALPUFF turbulence (CAL) dispersion and estimated the tracer remained on the arc one hour longer than observed using the PG dispersion option. The CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests estimated that the predicted tracer cloud was on the arc the same amount of time as was observed (5 hours) or within one hour of that duration (i.e., within ±20%). With one exception, when the CALPUFF/CALMET estimated that the duration of time on the arc was off by one hour, it was underestimating the amount of time on the arc (i.e., 4 instead of 5 hours). The exception to this was the EXP2A_PG scenario that estimates the tracer plume was on the 100 km arc for 6 hours. The CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivity tests had the tracer plume arriving at the 100 km arc one hour late and either leaving on time (12 km MMIF) or leaving an hour early. This results in the CALPUF/MMIF sensitivity test underestimating the observed time on the arc by 1 (12 km MMIF) to 2 (36 km MMIF) hours. 32
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Documentation of the Evaluation of
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FOREWARD This report documents the
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2.4.3 ATMES‐II Model Evaluation A
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ABSTRACT The CALP
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OVERVIEW OF APPROACH Up to six LRT
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CALPUFF performance is evaluated by
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Table ES‐2. ATMES‐II spatial an
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• CALPUFF tended to overstate the
Page 17 and 18: • The best performing CALPUFF con
Page 19 and 20: 2009a). The key findings from the C
Page 21 and 22: 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
Page 23 and 24: 2.4 2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0 EXP4A EXP4B
Page 25 and 26: Figure ESS‐4. RANK statistical pe
Page 27 and 28: Evaluatioon of Six LRT T Dispersion
Page 29 and 30: Table ES‐6. Summary of model rank
Page 31 and 32: eproduce the northwest to southeast
Page 33 and 34: ETEX LRT Dispersion Model Sensitivi
Page 35 and 36: CONCLUSIONS OF LRT DISPERSION MODEL
Page 37 and 38: The CAMx and CALGRID Eulerian photo
Page 39 and 40: July 1980. Both experiments examine
Page 41 and 42: 1.3 ORGANIZATION OF REPORT Chapter
Page 43 and 44: puffs expand until they exceed the
Page 45 and 46: that performance evaluation be base
Page 47 and 48: The ETEX real‐time LRT modeling p
Page 49 and 50: The ETEX study has formulated the f
Page 51 and 52: In this study we expand the LRT mod
Page 53 and 54: AM ∩ AP FMS = × 100% (2‐2) A
Page 55 and 56: Factor of α (FAα): FAα represent
Page 57 and 58: 3.0 1980 GREAT PLAINS FIELD STUDY 3
Page 59 and 60: compact discs, which were used to o
Page 61 and 62: ILEVZI = 1 Layer of winds to use in
Page 63 and 64: MCHEM = 0 No chemical transformatio
Page 65 and 66: Table 3‐6. CALPUFF/CALMET experim
Page 67: Table 3‐11. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitiv
Page 71 and 72: Tables 3‐13 and Figures 3‐2 thr
Page 73 and 74: 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Page 75 and 76: 30% 20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30%
Page 77 and 78: 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20%
Page 79 and 80: 20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% ‐
Page 81 and 82: The fitted Gaussian plume statistic
Page 83 and 84: 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% ‐40% ‐5
Page 85 and 86: 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 300
Page 87 and 88: 60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20% ‐40% ‐60%
Page 89 and 90: with APS, implementing the slug opt
Page 91 and 92: the amount of time that the tracer
Page 93 and 94: Figure 4‐1. CALPUFF/CALMET UTM mo
Page 95 and 96: compact discs, which were used to o
Page 97 and 98: Table 4‐4. CALPUFF parameters use
Page 99 and 100: Table 4‐8. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivi
Page 101 and 102: the fitted Gaussian plume is not a
Page 103 and 104: Figure 4‐2. Comparison of predict
Page 105 and 106: Figure 5‐1. Location of Dayton an
Page 107 and 108: MM5 runs, the first without FDDA (i
Page 109 and 110: Table 5‐3. MM5 sensitivity tests
Page 111 and 112: Table 5‐6. Definition of the CALM
Page 113 and 114: performance at the monitor location
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Page 117 and 118: 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% F
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40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% E
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5.4.1.4 Comparison of CALPUFF CTEX3
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0.48 0.36 0.24 0.12 0 ‐0.12 16% 1
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CTEX3 discussed in Section 5.4.1. A
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CALPUFF sensitivity simulations are
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14. Across all the spatial statisti
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sensitivity tests. The “B” seri
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‐0.1 ‐0.2 0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
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6.0 1994 EUROPEAN TRACER EXPERIMENT
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Figure 6‐2a. Surface synoptic met
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Figure 6‐3a. Distribution of the
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36 kilometers and the vertical stru
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splitting flag near sunset (hour 17
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experienced during the original ETE
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2 1 0 ‐1 ‐2 3 2 1 0 23‐Oct 23
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70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Figu
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Figure 6‐9. Factor of Exceedance
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eceiving a 0.0 score. Figure 6‐13
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Table 6‐1. Summary of model ranki
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plume spread and observed surface c
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Figure 6‐16c. Comparison of spati
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• NoPiG: The tracer emissions wer
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Using the NMSE statistical performa
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6.4.3.2 Effect of PiG on Model Perf
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80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5
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Table 6‐3. Summary of CALPUFF puf
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0.2 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.
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Figure 6‐ ‐22 displays the t sp
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Figure 6‐ ‐23a. Global model pe
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Figure 6‐24. Figure of Merit (FMS
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7.0 REFERENCES Anderson, B. 2008. T
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EPA, 1984: Interim Procedures for E
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Mlawer, E.J., S.J. Taubman, P.D. Br
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148 Appendix A Evaluation of the MM
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Table A‐1. Wind speed and wind di
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Table A‐3. Definition of the CTEX
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Figure A‐ ‐1. Wind speed bias (
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Figure A‐ ‐3. Humidity bias and
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Table A‐5. Comparison of CTEX5 MM
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B.1 CALMET MODEL EVALUATION TO IDEN
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Figure B‐ ‐1 displays th he win
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Table B‐2a. Summary wind speed mo
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B.2 CONCLUSIONS OF CTEX3 CALMET SEN
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C.1 INTRODUCTION In this section, t
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C.2.2 HYYSPLIT GLOB BAL STATISTIICS
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The final panel in Figure C‐3 (bo
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Figure C‐ ‐5. Global model m pe
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C.3 CAMX SENSITIVITY TESTS Followin
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ACM2 Kzz combinatio ons rank as the
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Figure C‐ ‐10. Spatial model pe
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Figure C‐ ‐12. Global model per
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Figure C‐ ‐13. Spatial model pe
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Table C‐3. CAMx FMS and POD spati
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Figure C‐ ‐20. False Alarm Rate
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Figure C‐ ‐23. Factor of o Exce
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The PCC values for th he six LRT mo
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The RANK statistical performancce m
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Table C‐55. Summary y of model r
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Results foor the TS me etric are pr
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Figure C‐ ‐35. Factor of o 2 (F
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a negativve FB. The best b performm
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performing model the most often sco
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United States Environmental Protect
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