Documentation of the Evaluation of CALPUFF and Other Long ...
Documentation of the Evaluation of CALPUFF and Other Long ... Documentation of the Evaluation of CALPUFF and Other Long ...
The evaluation of the LRT models using the SRL75 tracer data only has results for CALPUFF. Several CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests were run using only meteorological observations, only MM5 data and hybrid MM5 plus meteorological observations. CALPUFF/MMIF was run using 36, 12 and 4 km MM5 data. Two tracer releases were evaluated using the CAPTEX database, Releases No. 3 and 5. While all of the models listed in Table 2‐1 were run for the CAPTEX database, numerous CALMET sensitivity tests were also conducted, including the evaluation of CALMET using various configurations for CAPTEX Release No. 3 and 5 that helped define the EPA‐FLM recommended CALMET settings in the August 2009 Clarification Memorandum (EPA, 2009b). The LRT model intercomparison using the CAPTEX and ETEX databases was done differently than the other two tracer test evaluations. The objective of the ETEX with CAPTEX LRT model evaluation intercomparison was to evaluate the LRT dispersion models using a common meteorological input database. Thus, all LRT models used the same MM5 meteorological inputs. Table 2‐1. Model availability for the four tracer test field experiments. Model GP80 SRL75 CAPTEX ETEX CALPUFF/CALMET Yes Yes Yes No CALMET/MMIF Yes Yes Yes Yes SCIPUFF No No Yes Yes HYSPLIT No No Yes Yes FLEXPART No No Yes Yes CAMx No No Yes Yes CALGRID No No Yes No 2.3 RELEATED PREVIOUS STUDIES Over the years there have been numerous studies that have evaluated dispersion models using tracer test and other field study databases. In fact, much of the early development of Gaussian plume dispersion formulation was assisted by radioactive ambient field data (Slade, 1968). The development and evaluation of the AERMOD steady‐state Gaussian plume model used almost 20 near‐source field study datasets 15 . The discussion below is limited to long range transport (LRT) dispersion model evaluations that have been related to the development of the CALPUFF modeling system, which in 2003 was identified as the EPA recommended regulatory LRT model for far‐field (> 50 km) air quality modeling of chemically inert compounds (EPA, 2003). 2.3.1 1986 Evaluation of Eight Short‐Term Long Range Transport Models EPA sponsored a study to evaluate 8 LRT models using the GP80 tracer field experiment and Krypton‐85 releases from the Savannah River Laboratory (SRL; Telegadas et al., 1980) databases (Policastro et al., 1986). The eight models were MESOPUFF, MESOPLUME, MSPUFF, MESOPUFF‐II, MTDDIS, ARRPA, RADM and RTM‐II. MESOPUFF, MSPUFF and MESOPUFF‐II are Lagrangian puff models that all have their original basis on the MESOPUFF model. MESOPLUME is a Lagrangian plume segment model. MTDDIS is a variable trajectory model that also uses the Gaussian puff formulation. ARRPA is a single‐source segmented plume model. RADM and RTM‐II are Eulerian grid models. Model performance was evaluated by graphical and statistical methods. The primary means for the evaluation of model performance was the use of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) statistics (Fox, 1981). The AMS statistics recommends 15 http://www.epa.gov/ttn/scram/dispersion_prefrec.htm#aermod 7
that performance evaluation be based on comparisons of the full set of predicted/observed data pairs as well as the highest predicted and observed values per event and the highest N values (e.g., N=10) unpaired in space or time that represents the highest end of the concentration distribution. Six of the eight LRT models were applied to both the GP80 and SRL75 experiments. The ARRPA model could only be applied to the GP80 database and the MTDDIS model could only be applied to the SRL75 database. Model performance was generally consistent between the two tracer databases and was characterized by three features: • A spatial offset of the predicted and observed patterns. • A time difference between the predicted and observed arrival of the plumes to the receptors. • A definite angular offset of the predicted and observed plumes that could be as much as 20‐45 degrees. The LRT models tended to underestimate the horizontal spreading of the plume at ground level resulting in too high peak (centerline) concentrations when compared to the observations. For the Lagrangian models this is believed to be due to using sigma‐y dispersion (Turner) curves that are representative of near‐source and are applied for longer (> 50 km) downwind distances. The spatial and angular offsets resulted in poor correlations and large bias and error between the predicted and observed tracer concentrations when paired by time and location. However, when comparing the maximum predicted and observed concentrations unmatched by time and location, the models performed much better. For example, the average of the highest 25 predicted and observed concentrations (unpaired in location and time) were within a factor of two for six of the eight models evaluated (MESOPUFF, MESOPLUME, MESOPLUME, MTDDIS, ARRPA and RTM‐II). The study concluded that the LRT models’ observed tendency to over‐predict the observed peak concentrations errs on the conservative side for regulatory applications. However, this over‐prediction must be weighed against the general tendency of those models to underestimate horizontal spreading and to predict a plume pattern that is spatially offset from the observed data. 2.3.2 Rocky Mountain Acid Deposition Model Assessment Project – Western Atmospheric Deposition Task Force A second round of LRT model evaluations was conducted as part of the Rocky Mountain Acid Deposition Model Assessment (EPA, 1990). In this study, the eight models from the 1986 evaluation were compared against a newer model, the Acid Rain Mountain Mesoscale Model (ARM3) (EPA, 1988). The statistical evaluation considered data paired in time/space and also unpaired in time/space equally. In this study, it was found that the MESOPUFF‐II (Scire et al., 1984a, and 1984b) model performed best when using unpaired data, and that the ARM3 model performed best when using paired data. A final model score was assigned on the basis of a model’s performance relative to the others in each of the areas (paired in time/space, unpaired in time/space, and paired in time, not space) for each of two tracer releases considered. The primary objective was to assemble a mesoscale air quality model based primarily on models or model components available at the time for use by state and federal agencies to assess acid deposition in the complex terrain of the Rocky Mountains. 8
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The evaluation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> LRT models using <strong>the</strong> SRL75 tracer data only has results for <strong>CALPUFF</strong>.<br />
Several <strong>CALPUFF</strong>/CALMET sensitivity tests were run using only meteorological observations,<br />
only MM5 data <strong>and</strong> hybrid MM5 plus meteorological observations. <strong>CALPUFF</strong>/MMIF was run<br />
using 36, 12 <strong>and</strong> 4 km MM5 data.<br />
Two tracer releases were evaluated using <strong>the</strong> CAPTEX database, Releases No. 3 <strong>and</strong> 5. While all<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> models listed in Table 2‐1 were run for <strong>the</strong> CAPTEX database, numerous CALMET<br />
sensitivity tests were also conducted, including <strong>the</strong> evaluation <strong>of</strong> CALMET using various<br />
configurations for CAPTEX Release No. 3 <strong>and</strong> 5 that helped define <strong>the</strong> EPA‐FLM recommended<br />
CALMET settings in <strong>the</strong> August 2009 Clarification Memor<strong>and</strong>um (EPA, 2009b).<br />
The LRT model intercomparison using <strong>the</strong> CAPTEX <strong>and</strong> ETEX databases was done differently<br />
than <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r two tracer test evaluations. The objective <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> ETEX with CAPTEX LRT model<br />
evaluation intercomparison was to evaluate <strong>the</strong> LRT dispersion models using a common<br />
meteorological input database. Thus, all LRT models used <strong>the</strong> same MM5 meteorological<br />
inputs.<br />
Table 2‐1. Model availability for <strong>the</strong> four tracer test field experiments.<br />
Model GP80 SRL75 CAPTEX ETEX<br />
<strong>CALPUFF</strong>/CALMET Yes Yes Yes No<br />
CALMET/MMIF Yes Yes Yes Yes<br />
SCIPUFF No No Yes Yes<br />
HYSPLIT No No Yes Yes<br />
FLEXPART No No Yes Yes<br />
CAMx No No Yes Yes<br />
CALGRID No No Yes No<br />
2.3 RELEATED PREVIOUS STUDIES<br />
Over <strong>the</strong> years <strong>the</strong>re have been numerous studies that have evaluated dispersion models using<br />
tracer test <strong>and</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r field study databases. In fact, much <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> early development <strong>of</strong> Gaussian<br />
plume dispersion formulation was assisted by radioactive ambient field data (Slade, 1968). The<br />
development <strong>and</strong> evaluation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> AERMOD steady‐state Gaussian plume model used almost<br />
20 near‐source field study datasets 15 . The discussion below is limited to long range transport<br />
(LRT) dispersion model evaluations that have been related to <strong>the</strong> development <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>CALPUFF</strong><br />
modeling system, which in 2003 was identified as <strong>the</strong> EPA recommended regulatory LRT model<br />
for far‐field (> 50 km) air quality modeling <strong>of</strong> chemically inert compounds (EPA, 2003).<br />
2.3.1 1986 <strong>Evaluation</strong> <strong>of</strong> Eight Short‐Term <strong>Long</strong> Range Transport Models<br />
EPA sponsored a study to evaluate 8 LRT models using <strong>the</strong> GP80 tracer field experiment <strong>and</strong><br />
Krypton‐85 releases from <strong>the</strong> Savannah River Laboratory (SRL; Telegadas et al., 1980) databases<br />
(Policastro et al., 1986). The eight models were MESOPUFF, MESOPLUME, MSPUFF,<br />
MESOPUFF‐II, MTDDIS, ARRPA, RADM <strong>and</strong> RTM‐II. MESOPUFF, MSPUFF <strong>and</strong> MESOPUFF‐II are<br />
Lagrangian puff models that all have <strong>the</strong>ir original basis on <strong>the</strong> MESOPUFF model. MESOPLUME<br />
is a Lagrangian plume segment model. MTDDIS is a variable trajectory model that also uses <strong>the</strong><br />
Gaussian puff formulation. ARRPA is a single‐source segmented plume model. RADM <strong>and</strong><br />
RTM‐II are Eulerian grid models. Model performance was evaluated by graphical <strong>and</strong> statistical<br />
methods. The primary means for <strong>the</strong> evaluation <strong>of</strong> model performance was <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
American Meteorological Society (AMS) statistics (Fox, 1981). The AMS statistics recommends<br />
15 http://www.epa.gov/ttn/scram/dispersion_prefrec.htm#aermod<br />
7