Documentation of the Evaluation of CALPUFF and Other Long ...

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 ABSTRACT 1 INTRODUCTION 1 Near‐Source and Far‐Field Dispersion Models 1 CALPUFF Modeling Guidance 2 Mesoscale Model Interface (MMIF) Tool 2 OVERVIEW OF APPROACH 3 Tracer Test Field Experiments 3 LRT Dispersion Models Evaluated 3 Evaluation Methodology 4 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF LRT DISPERSION MODELS 8 1980 Great Plains (GP80) Field Experiment 8 1975 Savannah River Laboratory (SRL75) Field Experiment 11 Cross Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX) 12 European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) 23 CONCLUSIONS OF LRT DISPERSION MODEL TRACER TEST EVALUATION 29 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 BACKGROUND 1 1.2 PURPOSE 3 1.3 ORGANIZATION OF REPORT 4 2.0 OVERVIEW OF APPROACH 5 2.1 SUMMARY OF TRACER TEST FIELD EXPERIMENTS 5 2.2 SUMMARY OF LRT DISPERSION MODELS 5 2.3 RELEATED PREVIOUS STUDIES 7 2.3.1 1986 Evaluation of Eight Short‐Term Long Range Transport Models 7 2.3.2 Rocky Mountain Acid Deposition Model Assessment Project – Western Atmospheric Deposition Task Force 8 2.3.3 Comparison of CALPUFF Modeling Results to Two Tracer Field Experiments 9 2.3.4 ETEX and ATMES‐II 9 2.3.5 Data Archive of Tracer Experiments and Meteorology (DATEM) 12 2.4 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION APROACHES AND METHODS 13 2.4.1 Model Evaluation Philosophy 13 2.4.2 Irwin Plume Fitting Model Evaluation Approach 14 Page
2.4.3 ATMES‐II Model Evaluation Approach 15 3.0 1980 GREAT PLAINS FIELD STUDY 20 3.1 DESCRIPTION OF 1980 GREAT PLAINS FIELD STUDY 20 3.2 MODEL CONFIGURATION AND APPLICATION 20 3.2.1 CALPUFF/CALMET BASE Case Model Configuration 21 3.2.2 GP80 CALPUFF/CALMET Sensitivity Tests 27 3.2.3 CALPUFF/MMIF Sensitivity Tests 29 3.3 QUALITY ASSURANCE 30 3.4 GP80 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION 31 3.4.1 CALPUFF GP80 Evaluation for the 100 km Arc of Receptors 32 3.4.2 CALPUFF GP80 Evaluation for the 600 km Arc of Receptors 40 3.4.3 SLUG and Puff Splitting Sensitivity Tests for the 600 km Arc 51 3.5 CONCLUSIONS ON GP80 TRACER TEST EVALUATION 53 4.0 1975 SAVANNAH RIVER LABORATORY FIELD STUDY 55 4.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE 1975 SAVANNAH RIVER LABORATORY FIELD STUDY 55 4.2 MODEL CONFIGURATION AND APPLICATION 55 4.2.1 CALMET Options 56 4.2.2 CALPUFF Control Options 58 4.2.3 SRL75 CALPUFF/CALMET Sensitivity Tests 60 4.2.4 CALPUFF/MMIF Sensitivity Tests 61 4.3 QUALITY ASSURANCE 62 4.4 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION FOR THE SRL75 TRACER EXPERIMENT 63 4.5 CONCLUSIONS OF THE SRL75 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION 66 5.0 1983 CROSS APPALACHIAN TRACER EXPERIMENT 67 5.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE 1983 CROSS APPALACHIAN TRACER EXPERIMENT 67 5.2 MODEL CONFIGURATION AND APPLICATION 68 5.2.1 MM5 Prognostic Meteorological Modeling 69 5.2.2 CALMET Diagnostic Meteorological Modeling 72 5.3 QUALITY ASSURANCE 74 5.4 CALPUFF MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION FOR CAPTEX 76 5.4.1 CALPUFF CTEX3 Model Performance Evaluation 77 5.4.2 CALPUFF CTEX5 Model Performance Evaluation 87 5.5 CONCLUSIONS OF THE CAPTEX TRACER SENSITIVITY TESTS 96 6.0 1994 EUROPEAN TRACER EXPERIMENT 98
Page 1 and 2: Documentation of the Evaluation of
Page 3: FOREWARD This report documents the
Page 7 and 8: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ABSTRACT The CALP
Page 9 and 10: OVERVIEW OF APPROACH Up to six LRT
Page 11 and 12: CALPUFF performance is evaluated by
Page 13 and 14: Table ES‐2. ATMES‐II spatial an
Page 15 and 16: • CALPUFF tended to overstate the
Page 17 and 18: • The best performing CALPUFF con
Page 19 and 20: 2009a). The key findings from the C
Page 21 and 22: 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
Page 23 and 24: 2.4 2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0 EXP4A EXP4B
Page 25 and 26: Figure ESS‐4. RANK statistical pe
Page 27 and 28: Evaluatioon of Six LRT T Dispersion
Page 29 and 30: Table ES‐6. Summary of model rank
Page 31 and 32: eproduce the northwest to southeast
Page 33 and 34: ETEX LRT Dispersion Model Sensitivi
Page 35 and 36: CONCLUSIONS OF LRT DISPERSION MODEL
Page 37 and 38: The CAMx and CALGRID Eulerian photo
Page 39 and 40: July 1980. Both experiments examine
Page 41 and 42: 1.3 ORGANIZATION OF REPORT Chapter
Page 43 and 44: puffs expand until they exceed the
Page 45 and 46: that performance evaluation be base
Page 47 and 48: The ETEX real‐time LRT modeling p
Page 49 and 50: The ETEX study has formulated the f
Page 51 and 52: In this study we expand the LRT mod
Page 53 and 54: AM ∩ AP FMS = × 100% (2‐2) A
Page 55 and 56:
Factor of α (FAα): FAα represent
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3.0 1980 GREAT PLAINS FIELD STUDY 3
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compact discs, which were used to o
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ILEVZI = 1 Layer of winds to use in
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MCHEM = 0 No chemical transformatio
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Table 3‐6. CALPUFF/CALMET experim
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Table 3‐11. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitiv
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evaluation studies and evaluate whe
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Tables 3‐13 and Figures 3‐2 thr
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140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
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30% 20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30%
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120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20%
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20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% ‐
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The fitted Gaussian plume statistic
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0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% ‐40% ‐5
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300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 300
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60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20% ‐40% ‐60%
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with APS, implementing the slug opt
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the amount of time that the tracer
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Figure 4‐1. CALPUFF/CALMET UTM mo
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compact discs, which were used to o
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Table 4‐4. CALPUFF parameters use
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Table 4‐8. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivi
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the fitted Gaussian plume is not a
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Figure 4‐2. Comparison of predict
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Figure 5‐1. Location of Dayton an
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MM5 runs, the first without FDDA (i
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Table 5‐3. MM5 sensitivity tests
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Table 5‐6. Definition of the CALM
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performance at the monitor location
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35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 35% 3
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40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% F
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40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% E
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5.4.1.4 Comparison of CALPUFF CTEX3
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0.48 0.36 0.24 0.12 0 ‐0.12 16% 1
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CTEX3 discussed in Section 5.4.1. A
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CALPUFF sensitivity simulations are
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14. Across all the spatial statisti
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sensitivity tests. The “B” seri
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‐0.1 ‐0.2 0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
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6.0 1994 EUROPEAN TRACER EXPERIMENT
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Figure 6‐2a. Surface synoptic met
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Figure 6‐3a. Distribution of the
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36 kilometers and the vertical stru
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splitting flag near sunset (hour 17
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experienced during the original ETE
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2 1 0 ‐1 ‐2 3 2 1 0 23‐Oct 23
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70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Figu
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Figure 6‐9. Factor of Exceedance
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eceiving a 0.0 score. Figure 6‐13
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Table 6‐1. Summary of model ranki
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plume spread and observed surface c
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Figure 6‐16c. Comparison of spati
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• NoPiG: The tracer emissions wer
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Using the NMSE statistical performa
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6.4.3.2 Effect of PiG on Model Perf
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80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5
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Table 6‐3. Summary of CALPUFF puf
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0.2 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.
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Figure 6‐ ‐22 displays the t sp
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Figure 6‐ ‐23a. Global model pe
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Figure 6‐24. Figure of Merit (FMS
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7.0 REFERENCES Anderson, B. 2008. T
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EPA, 1984: Interim Procedures for E
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Mlawer, E.J., S.J. Taubman, P.D. Br
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148 Appendix A Evaluation of the MM
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Table A‐1. Wind speed and wind di
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Table A‐3. Definition of the CTEX
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Figure A‐ ‐1. Wind speed bias (
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Figure A‐ ‐3. Humidity bias and
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Table A‐5. Comparison of CTEX5 MM
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B.1 CALMET MODEL EVALUATION TO IDEN
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Figure B‐ ‐1 displays th he win
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Table B‐2a. Summary wind speed mo
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B.2 CONCLUSIONS OF CTEX3 CALMET SEN
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C.1 INTRODUCTION In this section, t
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C.2.2 HYYSPLIT GLOB BAL STATISTIICS
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The final panel in Figure C‐3 (bo
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Figure C‐ ‐5. Global model m pe
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C.3 CAMX SENSITIVITY TESTS Followin
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ACM2 Kzz combinatio ons rank as the
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Figure C‐ ‐10. Spatial model pe
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Figure C‐ ‐12. Global model per
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Figure C‐ ‐13. Spatial model pe
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Page 225 and 226:
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Table C‐3. CAMx FMS and POD spati
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Figure C‐ ‐20. False Alarm Rate
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Figure C‐ ‐23. Factor of o Exce
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The PCC values for th he six LRT mo
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The RANK statistical performancce m
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Table C‐55. Summary y of model r
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Results foor the TS me etric are pr
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Figure C‐ ‐35. Factor of o 2 (F
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a negativve FB. The best b performm
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performing model the most often sco
Page 247:
United States Environmental Protect
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