Documentation of the Evaluation of CALPUFF and Other Long ...

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models for CTEX5, and is arguably the worst performing model. Adaptation of RANK score for regulatory use will likely require refinement of the individual components to insure that this situation does not develop and to insure that the regulatory requirement of bias be accounted for when weighting the individual statistical measures to produce a composite score. Table C‐6. Summary of model rankings using the statistical performance metrics and comparison with the RANK metric. Statistic 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 4 th 5 th 6 th FMS SCIPUFF CAMx HYSPLIT CALPUFF FLEXPART CALGRID FAR FLEXPART HYSPLIT CAMx SCIPUFF CALGRID CALPUFF POD SCIPUFF CAMx HYSPLIT FLEXPART CALPUFF CALGRID TS FLEXPART HYSPLIT CAMx SCIPUFF CALPUFF CALGRID FOEX CALPUFF CAMx HYSPLIT CALGRID SCIPUFF FLEXPART FA2 HYSPLIT CAMx CALPUFF SCIPUFF FLEXPART CALGRID FA5 HYSPLIT CAMx SCIPUFF CALPUFF FLEXPART CALGRID NMSE CAMx SCIPUFF FLEXPART HYSPLIT CALPUFF CALGRID PCC or R HYSPLIT CAMx SCIPUFF FLEXPART CALGRID CALPUFF FB CAMx CALGRID FLEXPART SCIPUFF HYSPLIT CALPUFF KS HYSPLIT CALPUFF CALGRID CAMx FLEXPART SCIPUFF Avg. Ranking CAMx HYSPLIT SCIPUFF FLEXPART CALPUFF CALGRID Avg. Score 2.20 2.4 3.4 3.8 4.3 5.0 RANK Ranking CAMx HYSPLIT CALGRID SCIPUFF FLEXPART CALPUFF RANK 1.91 1.80 1.57 1.53 1.45 1.28 C.5.3 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS OF CAPTEX LRT MODEL EVALUATION Following the ATMES‐II evaluation paradigm described in Section 2.4.3.1 (spatial) and 2.4.3.3 (global), the performance of the six LRT dispersion models described in Section 2.2 have been evaluated for the Cross Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX) Releases 3 and 5. Sensitivities of the INITD (particle/puff) configuration for HYSPLIT and Kz/advection solver combination for CAMx were examined for each CAPTEX release as well as in intercomparison of the model performance for the six models. The model sensitivity results for HYSPLIT and CAMx are largely comparable to the conclusions from those of the ETEX experiment. For HYSPLIT, the puff‐particle hybrid configurations appear to offer a distinct performance advantage over either HYSPLIT’s pure particle or puff based formulations. For CAMx, the CMAQ Kz option typically performs the best, followed closely by TKE. The OB70 combination consistently performs the poorest for both CAPTEX releases. The evaluation of the use of the CAMx model’s subgrid scale PiG module generally yields slightly degraded performance statistics over the NoPiG option. 42
United States Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Air Quality Assessment Division Research Triangle Park, NC Publication No. EPA-454/R-12-003 May, 2012
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Documentation of the Evaluation of
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FOREWARD This report documents the
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2.4.3 ATMES‐II Model Evaluation A
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ABSTRACT The CALP
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OVERVIEW OF APPROACH Up to six LRT
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CALPUFF performance is evaluated by
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Table ES‐2. ATMES‐II spatial an
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• CALPUFF tended to overstate the
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• The best performing CALPUFF con
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2009a). The key findings from the C
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1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
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2.4 2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0 EXP4A EXP4B
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Figure ESS‐4. RANK statistical pe
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Evaluatioon of Six LRT T Dispersion
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Table ES‐6. Summary of model rank
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eproduce the northwest to southeast
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ETEX LRT Dispersion Model Sensitivi
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CONCLUSIONS OF LRT DISPERSION MODEL
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The CAMx and CALGRID Eulerian photo
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July 1980. Both experiments examine
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1.3 ORGANIZATION OF REPORT Chapter
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puffs expand until they exceed the
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that performance evaluation be base
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The ETEX real‐time LRT modeling p
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The ETEX study has formulated the f
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In this study we expand the LRT mod
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AM ∩ AP FMS = × 100% (2‐2) A
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Factor of α (FAα): FAα represent
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3.0 1980 GREAT PLAINS FIELD STUDY 3
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compact discs, which were used to o
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ILEVZI = 1 Layer of winds to use in
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MCHEM = 0 No chemical transformatio
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Table 3‐6. CALPUFF/CALMET experim
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Table 3‐11. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitiv
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evaluation studies and evaluate whe
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Tables 3‐13 and Figures 3‐2 thr
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140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
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30% 20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30%
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120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20%
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20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% ‐
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The fitted Gaussian plume statistic
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0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% ‐40% ‐5
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300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 300
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60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20% ‐40% ‐60%
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with APS, implementing the slug opt
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the amount of time that the tracer
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Figure 4‐1. CALPUFF/CALMET UTM mo
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compact discs, which were used to o
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Table 4‐4. CALPUFF parameters use
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Table 4‐8. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivi
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the fitted Gaussian plume is not a
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Figure 4‐2. Comparison of predict
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Figure 5‐1. Location of Dayton an
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MM5 runs, the first without FDDA (i
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Table 5‐3. MM5 sensitivity tests
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Table 5‐6. Definition of the CALM
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performance at the monitor location
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35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 35% 3
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40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% F
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40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% E
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5.4.1.4 Comparison of CALPUFF CTEX3
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0.48 0.36 0.24 0.12 0 ‐0.12 16% 1
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CTEX3 discussed in Section 5.4.1. A
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CALPUFF sensitivity simulations are
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14. Across all the spatial statisti
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sensitivity tests. The “B” seri
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‐0.1 ‐0.2 0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
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6.0 1994 EUROPEAN TRACER EXPERIMENT
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Figure 6‐2a. Surface synoptic met
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Figure 6‐3a. Distribution of the
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36 kilometers and the vertical stru
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splitting flag near sunset (hour 17
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experienced during the original ETE
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2 1 0 ‐1 ‐2 3 2 1 0 23‐Oct 23
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70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Figu
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Figure 6‐9. Factor of Exceedance
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eceiving a 0.0 score. Figure 6‐13
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Table 6‐1. Summary of model ranki
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plume spread and observed surface c
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Figure 6‐16c. Comparison of spati
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• NoPiG: The tracer emissions wer
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Using the NMSE statistical performa
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6.4.3.2 Effect of PiG on Model Perf
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80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5
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Table 6‐3. Summary of CALPUFF puf
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0.2 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.
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Figure 6‐ ‐22 displays the t sp
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Figure 6‐ ‐23a. Global model pe
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Figure 6‐24. Figure of Merit (FMS
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7.0 REFERENCES Anderson, B. 2008. T
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EPA, 1984: Interim Procedures for E
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Mlawer, E.J., S.J. Taubman, P.D. Br
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148 Appendix A Evaluation of the MM
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Table A‐1. Wind speed and wind di
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Table A‐3. Definition of the CTEX
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Figure A‐ ‐1. Wind speed bias (
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Figure A‐ ‐3. Humidity bias and
Page 195 and 196: Table A‐5. Comparison of CTEX5 MM
Page 197 and 198: B.1 CALMET MODEL EVALUATION TO IDEN
Page 199 and 200: Figure B‐ ‐1 displays th he win
Page 201 and 202: Table B‐2a. Summary wind speed mo
Page 203 and 204: B.2 CONCLUSIONS OF CTEX3 CALMET SEN
Page 205 and 206: C.1 INTRODUCTION In this section, t
Page 207 and 208: C.2.2 HYYSPLIT GLOB BAL STATISTIICS
Page 209 and 210: The final panel in Figure C‐3 (bo
Page 211 and 212: Figure C‐ ‐5. Global model m pe
Page 213 and 214: C.3 CAMX SENSITIVITY TESTS Followin
Page 215 and 216: ACM2 Kzz combinatio ons rank as the
Page 217 and 218: Figure C‐ ‐10. Spatial model pe
Page 219 and 220: Figure C‐ ‐12. Global model per
Page 221 and 222: Figure C‐ ‐13. Spatial model pe
Page 227 and 228: Table C‐3. CAMx FMS and POD spati
Page 229 and 230: Figure C‐ ‐20. False Alarm Rate
Page 231 and 232: Figure C‐ ‐23. Factor of o Exce
Page 233 and 234: The PCC values for th he six LRT mo
Page 235 and 236: The RANK statistical performancce m
Page 237 and 238: Table C‐55. Summary y of model r
Page 239 and 240: Results foor the TS me etric are pr
Page 241 and 242: Figure C‐ ‐35. Factor of o 2 (F
Page 243 and 244: a negativve FB. The best b performm
Page 245: performing model the most often sco
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