Documentation of the Evaluation of CALPUFF and Other Long ...

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355 300 255 200 155 100 5 0 CALPUFF/MMIF Normaliized Mea e Error (NNMSE) (Peerfect = 0) ) SCIPUFF n Square HYSPLIT Figure C‐ ‐36. Normalized Mean SSquare Erroor (NMSE) staatistical per LRT moddels and CAP PTEX Releasee 5. Values are expressed in pg m ‐3 rformance mmetric for thee six 3 . The PCC values for th he six LRT models are shhown in Figure C‐37. All models but CALGRID annd CALPUFFF have positiv ve PCCs. The three bestt models acccording to thhe PCC statisstical metric are HYSPLIT (0.60), CAMx (0.59) and SCIPUFF (0. .56). FLEXPAART has a PCCC of 0.51. BBoth CALPUFFF and CALGGRID have negative PCC scores, indicating the mmodeled concentrations are anti‐ correlateed with the observed o data. CALGRIDD and CALPUUFF have PCCC values of ‐ 0.06 and ‐0. 07, respectivvely. Figure C‐ ‐37. Pearson n’s Correlatiion Coefficieent (PCC) staatistical perfformance mmetric for thee six LRT moddels for CAPT TEX Release 5. Figure C‐ ‐38 displays the FB parammeter for thhe six LRT moodels and CTTEX5. Four oof the six moodels exhibit a positive FB, , which sugggests an overrestimation ttendency, wwhereas the other two have 38 FLEXPART CAMx CALGRID
a negativve FB. The best b performming models with the FB parameter cclosest to zeero are CAMxx with a FBB score of 0.4 49 indicatingg overestimaation and CAALPUFF withh a FB value oof ‐0.49 indicating underestim mation. Nexxt best is FLEEXPART (‐0.887) with an uunderestimaation bias and SCIPUFF (0.89) with an a overestimmation bias ffollowed by HYSPLIT (0.993) and CALPPUFF (1.07). Figure C‐ ‐38. Fraction nal Bias (FB) ) statistical pperformance metric forr the six LRT models andd CAPTEX RRelease 5. The KS paarameters fo or the six LRRT models are shown in FFigure C‐39. HYSPLIT (288%) has the lowest KSS parameter r, which indicates the beest match beetween the ppredicted annd observed tracer cooncentration distributionns accordingg to the KS paarameter, foollowed by CCALPUFF (37%) and CALGGRID (38%). CAMx follows with a sccore of 41% aand FLEXPART and SCIPUFF close ouut with scorres of 55% and 56% resppectively. Figure C‐ ‐39. Kolmog gorov – Smirrnov Parameeter (KSP) sttatistical performance mmetrics for tthe six LRT mmodels and CAPTEX C Releease 5. 39
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Documentation of the Evaluation of
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FOREWARD This report documents the
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2.4.3 ATMES‐II Model Evaluation A
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ABSTRACT The CALP
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OVERVIEW OF APPROACH Up to six LRT
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CALPUFF performance is evaluated by
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Table ES‐2. ATMES‐II spatial an
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• CALPUFF tended to overstate the
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• The best performing CALPUFF con
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2009a). The key findings from the C
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1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
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2.4 2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0 EXP4A EXP4B
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Figure ESS‐4. RANK statistical pe
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Evaluatioon of Six LRT T Dispersion
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Table ES‐6. Summary of model rank
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eproduce the northwest to southeast
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ETEX LRT Dispersion Model Sensitivi
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CONCLUSIONS OF LRT DISPERSION MODEL
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The CAMx and CALGRID Eulerian photo
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July 1980. Both experiments examine
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1.3 ORGANIZATION OF REPORT Chapter
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puffs expand until they exceed the
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that performance evaluation be base
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The ETEX real‐time LRT modeling p
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The ETEX study has formulated the f
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In this study we expand the LRT mod
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AM ∩ AP FMS = × 100% (2‐2) A
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Factor of α (FAα): FAα represent
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3.0 1980 GREAT PLAINS FIELD STUDY 3
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compact discs, which were used to o
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ILEVZI = 1 Layer of winds to use in
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MCHEM = 0 No chemical transformatio
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Table 3‐6. CALPUFF/CALMET experim
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Table 3‐11. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitiv
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evaluation studies and evaluate whe
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Tables 3‐13 and Figures 3‐2 thr
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140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
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30% 20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30%
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120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20%
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20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% ‐
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The fitted Gaussian plume statistic
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0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% ‐40% ‐5
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300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 300
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60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20% ‐40% ‐60%
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with APS, implementing the slug opt
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the amount of time that the tracer
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Figure 4‐1. CALPUFF/CALMET UTM mo
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compact discs, which were used to o
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Table 4‐4. CALPUFF parameters use
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Table 4‐8. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivi
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the fitted Gaussian plume is not a
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Figure 4‐2. Comparison of predict
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Figure 5‐1. Location of Dayton an
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MM5 runs, the first without FDDA (i
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Table 5‐3. MM5 sensitivity tests
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Table 5‐6. Definition of the CALM
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performance at the monitor location
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35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 35% 3
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40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% F
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40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% E
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5.4.1.4 Comparison of CALPUFF CTEX3
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0.48 0.36 0.24 0.12 0 ‐0.12 16% 1
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CTEX3 discussed in Section 5.4.1. A
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CALPUFF sensitivity simulations are
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14. Across all the spatial statisti
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sensitivity tests. The “B” seri
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‐0.1 ‐0.2 0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
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6.0 1994 EUROPEAN TRACER EXPERIMENT
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Figure 6‐2a. Surface synoptic met
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Figure 6‐3a. Distribution of the
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36 kilometers and the vertical stru
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splitting flag near sunset (hour 17
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experienced during the original ETE
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2 1 0 ‐1 ‐2 3 2 1 0 23‐Oct 23
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70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Figu
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Figure 6‐9. Factor of Exceedance
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eceiving a 0.0 score. Figure 6‐13
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Table 6‐1. Summary of model ranki
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plume spread and observed surface c
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Figure 6‐16c. Comparison of spati
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• NoPiG: The tracer emissions wer
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Using the NMSE statistical performa
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6.4.3.2 Effect of PiG on Model Perf
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80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5
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Table 6‐3. Summary of CALPUFF puf
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0.2 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.
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Figure 6‐ ‐22 displays the t sp
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Figure 6‐ ‐23a. Global model pe
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Figure 6‐24. Figure of Merit (FMS
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7.0 REFERENCES Anderson, B. 2008. T
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EPA, 1984: Interim Procedures for E
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Mlawer, E.J., S.J. Taubman, P.D. Br
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148 Appendix A Evaluation of the MM
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Table A‐1. Wind speed and wind di
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Table A‐3. Definition of the CTEX
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Page 195 and 196: Table A‐5. Comparison of CTEX5 MM
Page 197 and 198: B.1 CALMET MODEL EVALUATION TO IDEN
Page 199 and 200: Figure B‐ ‐1 displays th he win
Page 201 and 202: Table B‐2a. Summary wind speed mo
Page 203 and 204: B.2 CONCLUSIONS OF CTEX3 CALMET SEN
Page 205 and 206: C.1 INTRODUCTION In this section, t
Page 207 and 208: C.2.2 HYYSPLIT GLOB BAL STATISTIICS
Page 209 and 210: The final panel in Figure C‐3 (bo
Page 211 and 212: Figure C‐ ‐5. Global model m pe
Page 213 and 214: C.3 CAMX SENSITIVITY TESTS Followin
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Page 217 and 218: Figure C‐ ‐10. Spatial model pe
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Page 221 and 222: Figure C‐ ‐13. Spatial model pe
Page 227 and 228: Table C‐3. CAMx FMS and POD spati
Page 229 and 230: Figure C‐ ‐20. False Alarm Rate
Page 231 and 232: Figure C‐ ‐23. Factor of o Exce
Page 233 and 234: The PCC values for th he six LRT mo
Page 235 and 236: The RANK statistical performancce m
Page 237 and 238: Table C‐55. Summary y of model r
Page 239 and 240: Results foor the TS me etric are pr
Page 241: Figure C‐ ‐35. Factor of o 2 (F
Page 245 and 246: performing model the most often sco
Page 247: United States Environmental Protect
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