Documentation of the Evaluation of CALPUFF and Other Long ...

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Table C‐2. CTEX3 CAMx RANK model performance statistic and model rankings for different model Kz/advection solver configurations with and without using the PiG subgrid‐scale puff model. Without PiG Module With PiG Module PiG‐NoPiG Model Model Model Configuration RANK Ranking RANK Ranking ΔRANK Percent OB70/BOTT 1.56 8 1.25 8 ‐0.41 ‐26.4% OB70/PPM 1.67 7 1.26 7 ‐0.41 ‐24.5% TKE/BOTT 1.89 3 1.74 4 ‐0.15 ‐8.0% TKE/PPM 1.97 1 1.83 2 ‐0.14 ‐7.1% ACM2/BOTT 1.83 6 a 1.69 5 ‐0.14 ‐7.6% ACM2/PPM 1.87 4 1.68 6 ‐0.19 ‐10.1% CMAQ/BOTT 1.83 5 a 1.81 3 ‐0.02 ‐1.0% CMAQ/PPM a tied 1.91 2 1.86 1 ‐0.05 ‐2.6% C.3.5 SPATIAL PERFORMANCE FOR CTEX5 NOPIG EXPERIMENTS Spatial performance for CTEX5 and the NoPiG CAMx sensitivities posed a slightly more difficult challenge to interpret due to similarities amongst the Kz/advection solver options for the FMS metric (Figure C‐13). The range of difference for the FMS between the minimum and maximum for all of the eight combinations was less than 2.1%, with all in the range of 22% to 24%. This would indicate that each of the model configurations performs similarly across all concentration ranges. However, in the extended spatial statistics of FAR, POD, and TS, greater differentiation in model spatial performance metrics are seen. For example, for POD and TS, the CMAQ Kz combinations perform best of all of the vertical diffusion options, and have POD/TS statistics that are nearly twice as good as the OB70 diffusion combinations with POD/TS values of ~60%/~22% for CMAQ versus ~33%/~10% for OB70 diffusion algorithm options. Since these statistics are valid for concentration ranges above the 100 pg m ‐3 concentration level, similarity in model performance for the FMS metric is likely due to better performance of OB70 and ACM2 at levels below the threshold concentration used for the FAR, POD and TS statistics. Above the concentration threshold spatial performance for OB70 and ACM2 lags behind that of the TKE and CMAQ, indicating that the TKE and CMAQ Kz options perform better across all concentration ranges compared to similar performance at the lower concentration levels below the threshold. Overall, it appears that the CMAQ Kz option yields the best performance of the diffusion options when examining the performance across all of the spatial metrics. 16
Figure C‐ ‐13. Spatial model perfoormance staatistics for the CAMx CTTEX5 sensitivvity tests without using the PiG subgrid‐sccale puff moodule (NoPiGG). C.3.6 Gloobal Statistical Performmance for CTEX5 NoPiG EExperiments Figures CC‐14 and C‐15 displays thhe global staatistics for thhe CAMx No for the sttatistical me etrics with thhe best perfoorming model has the, r highest sscore. For th he FOEX mettric, all of the Kz/advectiion solver op other (1% % ‐ 5%), with h the best peerformance coming fromm OB70 and slightly across the AC CM2 and CMMAQ options. The NMSSE, FB, and PCC P metrics pprovide cleaar differentiaation in perfo options, with the TKE E and CMAQQ options yieelding significcantly bette OB70 or ACM2. For NMSE, the CCMAQ combbinations havve the best s followed by the TKE combinationns with 12.6 – 13.6 pg m for OB700 and ACM2. A similar reelationship is found with CMAQ annd TKE perfo orming signifficantly bettter than eith ‐3 s PiG CTEX5 sensitivity tessts espectively, lowest and ptions are wwithin 4% of eeach TKE optionss and degradding ormance acrross the Kz er performannce than eithher scores with 99.3 – 9.4 pg m . NMSE vaalues are nearly double h the FB andd PCC metrics, with the er ACM2 or OB70. ‐3 , that 17
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Documentation of the Evaluation of
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FOREWARD This report documents the
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2.4.3 ATMES‐II Model Evaluation A
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ABSTRACT The CALP
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OVERVIEW OF APPROACH Up to six LRT
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CALPUFF performance is evaluated by
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Table ES‐2. ATMES‐II spatial an
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• CALPUFF tended to overstate the
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• The best performing CALPUFF con
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2009a). The key findings from the C
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1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
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2.4 2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0 EXP4A EXP4B
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Figure ESS‐4. RANK statistical pe
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Evaluatioon of Six LRT T Dispersion
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Table ES‐6. Summary of model rank
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eproduce the northwest to southeast
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ETEX LRT Dispersion Model Sensitivi
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CONCLUSIONS OF LRT DISPERSION MODEL
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The CAMx and CALGRID Eulerian photo
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July 1980. Both experiments examine
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1.3 ORGANIZATION OF REPORT Chapter
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puffs expand until they exceed the
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that performance evaluation be base
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The ETEX real‐time LRT modeling p
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The ETEX study has formulated the f
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In this study we expand the LRT mod
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AM ∩ AP FMS = × 100% (2‐2) A
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Factor of α (FAα): FAα represent
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3.0 1980 GREAT PLAINS FIELD STUDY 3
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compact discs, which were used to o
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ILEVZI = 1 Layer of winds to use in
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MCHEM = 0 No chemical transformatio
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Table 3‐6. CALPUFF/CALMET experim
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Table 3‐11. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitiv
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evaluation studies and evaluate whe
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Tables 3‐13 and Figures 3‐2 thr
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140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
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30% 20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30%
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120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20%
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20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% ‐
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The fitted Gaussian plume statistic
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0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% ‐40% ‐5
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300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 300
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60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20% ‐40% ‐60%
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with APS, implementing the slug opt
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the amount of time that the tracer
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Figure 4‐1. CALPUFF/CALMET UTM mo
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compact discs, which were used to o
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Table 4‐4. CALPUFF parameters use
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Table 4‐8. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivi
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the fitted Gaussian plume is not a
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Figure 4‐2. Comparison of predict
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Figure 5‐1. Location of Dayton an
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MM5 runs, the first without FDDA (i
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Table 5‐3. MM5 sensitivity tests
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Table 5‐6. Definition of the CALM
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performance at the monitor location
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35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 35% 3
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40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% F
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40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% E
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5.4.1.4 Comparison of CALPUFF CTEX3
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0.48 0.36 0.24 0.12 0 ‐0.12 16% 1
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CTEX3 discussed in Section 5.4.1. A
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CALPUFF sensitivity simulations are
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14. Across all the spatial statisti
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sensitivity tests. The “B” seri
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‐0.1 ‐0.2 0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
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6.0 1994 EUROPEAN TRACER EXPERIMENT
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Figure 6‐2a. Surface synoptic met
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Figure 6‐3a. Distribution of the
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36 kilometers and the vertical stru
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splitting flag near sunset (hour 17
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experienced during the original ETE
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2 1 0 ‐1 ‐2 3 2 1 0 23‐Oct 23
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70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Figu
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Figure 6‐9. Factor of Exceedance
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eceiving a 0.0 score. Figure 6‐13
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Table 6‐1. Summary of model ranki
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plume spread and observed surface c
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Figure 6‐16c. Comparison of spati
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• NoPiG: The tracer emissions wer
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Using the NMSE statistical performa
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6.4.3.2 Effect of PiG on Model Perf
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80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5
Page 169 and 170: Table 6‐3. Summary of CALPUFF puf
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Page 173 and 174: Figure 6‐ ‐22 displays the t sp
Page 175 and 176: Figure 6‐ ‐23a. Global model pe
Page 177 and 178: Figure 6‐24. Figure of Merit (FMS
Page 179 and 180: 7.0 REFERENCES Anderson, B. 2008. T
Page 181 and 182: EPA, 1984: Interim Procedures for E
Page 183 and 184: Mlawer, E.J., S.J. Taubman, P.D. Br
Page 185 and 186: 148 Appendix A Evaluation of the MM
Page 187 and 188: Table A‐1. Wind speed and wind di
Page 189 and 190: Table A‐3. Definition of the CTEX
Page 191 and 192: Figure A‐ ‐1. Wind speed bias (
Page 193 and 194: Figure A‐ ‐3. Humidity bias and
Page 195 and 196: Table A‐5. Comparison of CTEX5 MM
Page 197 and 198: B.1 CALMET MODEL EVALUATION TO IDEN
Page 199 and 200: Figure B‐ ‐1 displays th he win
Page 201 and 202: Table B‐2a. Summary wind speed mo
Page 203 and 204: B.2 CONCLUSIONS OF CTEX3 CALMET SEN
Page 205 and 206: C.1 INTRODUCTION In this section, t
Page 207 and 208: C.2.2 HYYSPLIT GLOB BAL STATISTIICS
Page 209 and 210: The final panel in Figure C‐3 (bo
Page 211 and 212: Figure C‐ ‐5. Global model m pe
Page 213 and 214: C.3 CAMX SENSITIVITY TESTS Followin
Page 215 and 216: ACM2 Kzz combinatio ons rank as the
Page 217 and 218: Figure C‐ ‐10. Spatial model pe
Page 219: Figure C‐ ‐12. Global model per
Page 223 and 224: Figure C‐ ‐15. Global model per
Page 225 and 226: Figure C‐ ‐17. Global model per
Page 227 and 228: Table C‐3. CAMx FMS and POD spati
Page 229 and 230: Figure C‐ ‐20. False Alarm Rate
Page 231 and 232: Figure C‐ ‐23. Factor of o Exce
Page 233 and 234: The PCC values for th he six LRT mo
Page 235 and 236: The RANK statistical performancce m
Page 237 and 238: Table C‐55. Summary y of model r
Page 239 and 240: Results foor the TS me etric are pr
Page 241 and 242: Figure C‐ ‐35. Factor of o 2 (F
Page 243 and 244: a negativve FB. The best b performm
Page 245 and 246: performing model the most often sco
Page 247: United States Environmental Protect
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