Documentation of the Evaluation of CALPUFF and Other Long ...

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Model configuration options for the nine sensitivity runs are detailed in Table 6‐5. In general, model control options were held to default values with two notable exceptions, the INITD and NUMPAR variables. HYSPLIT performance is highly sensitive to the number of particles released in the simulation. The HYSPLIT parameter NUMPAR controls the number of particles released over the duration of the emissions release. The default value for NUMPAR is set to 2500, but the user must take caution to insure that a sufficient number of particles are released to provide a “smooth temporal change” in concentration fields (NOAA, 2009). The original NOAA configuration for HYSPLIT was for INITD = 104 that is a particle/puff hybrid configuration (3D part – THh‐Pv) with NUMPAR set to 1500. Original sensitivity runs found that the concentration fields were spotty; therefore, NUMPAR was set to 10000 to provide for smoother temporal evolution of the concentration fields. Table 6‐4. HYSPLIT INITD options and descriptions. INITD Value Description 0 (Default) 3D Particle Horizontal and Vertical 1 Gaussian horizontal and top‐hat vertical puff (Gh‐THv) 2 Top‐hat horizontal and vertical puff (THh‐THv) 3 Gaussian horizontal puff and vertical particle distribution (Gh‐Pv) 4 Top‐hat horizontal puff and vertical particle distribution (THh‐Pv) 103 3D particle (#0) converts to Gh‐Pv (#3) 104 3D particle (#0) converts to THh‐Pv (#4) 130 Gh‐Pv (#3) converts to 3D particle (#0) 140 THh‐Pv (#4) converts to 3D particle (#0) Table 6‐5. HYSPLIT sensitivity runs and relevant configuration parameters. Sensitivity Test INITD NUMPAR ISOT KSPL FRHS FRVS FRTS FRME INITD0 0 10000 1 NA NA NA NA NA INITD1 1 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10 INITD2 2 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10 INITD3 3 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10 INITD4 4 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10 INITD103 103 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10 INITD104 104 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10 INITD130 130 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10 INITD140 140 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10 135
Figure 6‐ ‐22 displays the t spatial mmodel perforrmance statistics for the tests. Wide variation n in spatial pperformancee is noted across the nin examinattion. For example, the ttwo puff bassed configuraations (INITD poorest sspatial perfo ormance of aall of the runns with low PPOD and TS v values coompared to all a other connfigurations. . The 3D parrticle based higher POOD, TS, and lower FAR inn comparison, yet it hadd a comparab INITD2. SSince the FM MS score exaamines all model/observved values g additionaal spatial me etrics use a ccontingency level of 1000 pg m 3D particcle configura ation performmed significaantly better 3 , but its spatial perfo ormance deggraded withh concentrat The puff‐ ‐particle hyb brid configurrations (INITD3, INTID4, consistenntly better overall o acrosss all four spaatial metrics ‐3 e HYSPLIT INITD sensitiviity e runs and rrequires closser D1 and INITDD2) showed the values and mmuch higherr FAR configuratioon (INITD0) hhad bly low FMS to INITD1 and reater than 0 and the , it caan be interpreted that thhe at concentrration levels above 100 ppg m ion ranges bbelow the coontingency le INITD103, INNITD104) peerformed s. ‐ evel. Figure 6‐ ‐22. Spatial model perfoormance staatistics for nnine HYSPLITT INITD senssitiviity experimeents. 136
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Documentation of the Evaluation of
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FOREWARD This report documents the
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2.4.3 ATMES‐II Model Evaluation A
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ABSTRACT The CALP
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OVERVIEW OF APPROACH Up to six LRT
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CALPUFF performance is evaluated by
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Table ES‐2. ATMES‐II spatial an
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• CALPUFF tended to overstate the
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• The best performing CALPUFF con
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2009a). The key findings from the C
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1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
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2.4 2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0 EXP4A EXP4B
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Figure ESS‐4. RANK statistical pe
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Evaluatioon of Six LRT T Dispersion
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Table ES‐6. Summary of model rank
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eproduce the northwest to southeast
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ETEX LRT Dispersion Model Sensitivi
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CONCLUSIONS OF LRT DISPERSION MODEL
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The CAMx and CALGRID Eulerian photo
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July 1980. Both experiments examine
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1.3 ORGANIZATION OF REPORT Chapter
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puffs expand until they exceed the
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that performance evaluation be base
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The ETEX real‐time LRT modeling p
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The ETEX study has formulated the f
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In this study we expand the LRT mod
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AM ∩ AP FMS = × 100% (2‐2) A
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Factor of α (FAα): FAα represent
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3.0 1980 GREAT PLAINS FIELD STUDY 3
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compact discs, which were used to o
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ILEVZI = 1 Layer of winds to use in
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MCHEM = 0 No chemical transformatio
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Table 3‐6. CALPUFF/CALMET experim
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Table 3‐11. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitiv
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evaluation studies and evaluate whe
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Tables 3‐13 and Figures 3‐2 thr
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140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
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30% 20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30%
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120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20%
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20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% ‐
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The fitted Gaussian plume statistic
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0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% ‐40% ‐5
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300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 300
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60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20% ‐40% ‐60%
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with APS, implementing the slug opt
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the amount of time that the tracer
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Figure 4‐1. CALPUFF/CALMET UTM mo
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compact discs, which were used to o
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Table 4‐4. CALPUFF parameters use
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Table 4‐8. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivi
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the fitted Gaussian plume is not a
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Figure 4‐2. Comparison of predict
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Figure 5‐1. Location of Dayton an
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MM5 runs, the first without FDDA (i
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Table 5‐3. MM5 sensitivity tests
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Table 5‐6. Definition of the CALM
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performance at the monitor location
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35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 35% 3
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40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% F
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40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% E
Page 121 and 122: 5.4.1.4 Comparison of CALPUFF CTEX3
Page 123 and 124: 0.48 0.36 0.24 0.12 0 ‐0.12 16% 1
Page 125 and 126: CTEX3 discussed in Section 5.4.1. A
Page 127 and 128: CALPUFF sensitivity simulations are
Page 129 and 130: 14. Across all the spatial statisti
Page 131 and 132: sensitivity tests. The “B” seri
Page 133 and 134: ‐0.1 ‐0.2 0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
Page 135 and 136: 6.0 1994 EUROPEAN TRACER EXPERIMENT
Page 137 and 138: Figure 6‐2a. Surface synoptic met
Page 139 and 140: Figure 6‐3a. Distribution of the
Page 141 and 142: 36 kilometers and the vertical stru
Page 143 and 144: splitting flag near sunset (hour 17
Page 145 and 146: experienced during the original ETE
Page 147 and 148: 2 1 0 ‐1 ‐2 3 2 1 0 23‐Oct 23
Page 149 and 150: 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Figu
Page 151 and 152: Figure 6‐9. Factor of Exceedance
Page 153 and 154: eceiving a 0.0 score. Figure 6‐13
Page 155 and 156: Table 6‐1. Summary of model ranki
Page 157 and 158: plume spread and observed surface c
Page 159 and 160: Figure 6‐16c. Comparison of spati
Page 161 and 162: • NoPiG: The tracer emissions wer
Page 163 and 164: Using the NMSE statistical performa
Page 165 and 166: 6.4.3.2 Effect of PiG on Model Perf
Page 167 and 168: 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5
Page 169 and 170: Table 6‐3. Summary of CALPUFF puf
Page 171: 0.2 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.
Page 175 and 176: Figure 6‐ ‐23a. Global model pe
Page 177 and 178: Figure 6‐24. Figure of Merit (FMS
Page 179 and 180: 7.0 REFERENCES Anderson, B. 2008. T
Page 181 and 182: EPA, 1984: Interim Procedures for E
Page 183 and 184: Mlawer, E.J., S.J. Taubman, P.D. Br
Page 185 and 186: 148 Appendix A Evaluation of the MM
Page 187 and 188: Table A‐1. Wind speed and wind di
Page 189 and 190: Table A‐3. Definition of the CTEX
Page 191 and 192: Figure A‐ ‐1. Wind speed bias (
Page 193 and 194: Figure A‐ ‐3. Humidity bias and
Page 195 and 196: Table A‐5. Comparison of CTEX5 MM
Page 197 and 198: B.1 CALMET MODEL EVALUATION TO IDEN
Page 199 and 200: Figure B‐ ‐1 displays th he win
Page 201 and 202: Table B‐2a. Summary wind speed mo
Page 203 and 204: B.2 CONCLUSIONS OF CTEX3 CALMET SEN
Page 205 and 206: C.1 INTRODUCTION In this section, t
Page 207 and 208: C.2.2 HYYSPLIT GLOB BAL STATISTIICS
Page 209 and 210: The final panel in Figure C‐3 (bo
Page 211 and 212: Figure C‐ ‐5. Global model m pe
Page 213 and 214: C.3 CAMX SENSITIVITY TESTS Followin
Page 215 and 216: ACM2 Kzz combinatio ons rank as the
Page 217 and 218: Figure C‐ ‐10. Spatial model pe
Page 219 and 220: Figure C‐ ‐12. Global model per
Page 221 and 222: Figure C‐ ‐13. Spatial model pe
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Figure C‐ ‐15. Global model per
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Figure C‐ ‐17. Global model per
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Table C‐3. CAMx FMS and POD spati
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Figure C‐ ‐20. False Alarm Rate
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Figure C‐ ‐23. Factor of o Exce
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The PCC values for th he six LRT mo
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The RANK statistical performancce m
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Table C‐55. Summary y of model r
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Results foor the TS me etric are pr
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Figure C‐ ‐35. Factor of o 2 (F
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a negativve FB. The best b performm
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performing model the most often sco
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United States Environmental Protect
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