Documentation of the Evaluation of CALPUFF and Other Long ...

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6.4.4 CALPUFF Sensitivity Tests Most CALPUFF applications have limited the distance downwind that the model is applied for to less than 300 km from the source. However, the evaluation of CALPUFF in the ETEX study has applied the model to much farther downwind distances. The issue of the downwind applicability of the CALPUFF model was raised in the FLAG (2000) report and EPA’s June 26‐27, 2000 7 th Conference on Air Quality Modeling 19 that proposed to list CALPUFF as an EPA recommended model for far‐field applications. However, when CALPUFF was designated an EPA recommended far‐field model in a 2003 Federal Register (FR) notice, EPA noted that “…since the 7th Modeling Conference, enhancements were made to CALPUFF that allow puffs to be split both horizontally (to address wind direction shear) and vertically (to address spatial variation in meteorological conditions). These enhancements likely will extend the system’s ability to treat transport and dispersion beyond 300 km” (68 FR 18441). EPA goes on to further state that “…Future performance comparisons for transport beyond 300 km are likely to extend the applicability and use of the modeling system, and we intend to watch for such evaluations very diligently. In an effort to keep the public abreast with the latest findings, EPA requests that evaluation results of the CALPUFF modeling system be sent to us (SCRAM webmaster) in an electronic format suitable for distribution, or that citations be provided for copyrighted material. EPA will post this information on its website for review and assessment” (EPA, 2003). Despite the passage of eight years since EPA’s request for CALPUFF evaluation regarding its suitability for application beyond 300 km, no such documentation has been submitted. Thus, the ETEX CALPUFF evaluation serves as an important source of information on the downwind applicability of CALPUFF. In this section we present two types of performance analysis: • Analyze the CALPUFF model performance as a function of distance from the source to determine whether the poor performance of CALPUFF relative to the other LRT models is related to applying the model beyond its downwind distance of applicability; and • Perform CALPUFF puff splitting sensitivity tests to determine whether puff splitting can increase the downwind distance applicability of CALPUFF, as suggested in the 2003 Federal Register notice. 6.4.4.1 Time Dependent Model Performance Figure 6‐19 displays the FMS model performance statistic for the five LRT models as a function of time from the beginning of the tracer release in the ETEX experiment. Although the CALPUFF model performance does degrade with time (distance), even close to the source it is performing worse than the other LRT models. This was also seen in the spatial maps of the model performance presented previous in Figure 6‐16 where the CALPUFF model had spatial alignment problems compared with the observed tracer 24 hours after the tracer was released. Thus, CALPUFF does not perform comparably to the other evaluated LRT models even within 300 km of the source. 19 http://www.epa.gov/ttn/scram/7thmodconf.htm 129
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Figure 6‐19. Figure of Merit (FMS) spatial model performance statistics as a function of time since the beginning of the tracer release. 6.4.4.2 CALPUFF Puff Splitting Sensitivity Tests The CALPUFF puff splitting algorithm is controlled by several model options that are defined in the CALPUFF control input file. Two types of puff splitting may be invoked in CALPUFF: (1) vertical puff splitting when vertical wind shear is present across vertical layers in a well‐mixed puff; and (2) horizontal puff splitting when there is sufficient horizontal wind shear across the horizontal extent of the puff. The MSPLIT control option turns on puff splitting when set to 1, when MSPLIT is 0 no vertical or horizontal puff splitting is allowed to occur. Four criteria must occur in order for vertical puff splitting to occur in CALPUFF: 1. The puff must be in contact with the ground. 2. The puff splitting flag must be turned on (i.e., IRESPLIT = 1). 3. The previous hours mixing height must be above a certain height (mixing height > ZISPLIT). 4. The ratio of the last hours mixing height to the maximum mixing height encountered by the puff is less than a maximum value (current mixing height/maximum mixing height > ROLDMAX). 130 CAMx CALPUFF FLEXPART HYSPLIT SCIPUFF
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Documentation of the Evaluation of
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FOREWARD This report documents the
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2.4.3 ATMES‐II Model Evaluation A
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ABSTRACT The CALP
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OVERVIEW OF APPROACH Up to six LRT
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CALPUFF performance is evaluated by
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Table ES‐2. ATMES‐II spatial an
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• CALPUFF tended to overstate the
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• The best performing CALPUFF con
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2009a). The key findings from the C
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1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
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2.4 2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0 EXP4A EXP4B
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Figure ESS‐4. RANK statistical pe
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Evaluatioon of Six LRT T Dispersion
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Table ES‐6. Summary of model rank
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eproduce the northwest to southeast
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ETEX LRT Dispersion Model Sensitivi
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CONCLUSIONS OF LRT DISPERSION MODEL
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The CAMx and CALGRID Eulerian photo
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July 1980. Both experiments examine
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1.3 ORGANIZATION OF REPORT Chapter
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puffs expand until they exceed the
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that performance evaluation be base
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The ETEX real‐time LRT modeling p
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The ETEX study has formulated the f
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In this study we expand the LRT mod
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AM ∩ AP FMS = × 100% (2‐2) A
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Factor of α (FAα): FAα represent
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3.0 1980 GREAT PLAINS FIELD STUDY 3
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compact discs, which were used to o
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ILEVZI = 1 Layer of winds to use in
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MCHEM = 0 No chemical transformatio
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Table 3‐6. CALPUFF/CALMET experim
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Table 3‐11. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitiv
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evaluation studies and evaluate whe
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Tables 3‐13 and Figures 3‐2 thr
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140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
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30% 20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30%
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120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20%
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20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% ‐
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The fitted Gaussian plume statistic
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0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% ‐40% ‐5
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300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 300
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60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20% ‐40% ‐60%
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with APS, implementing the slug opt
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the amount of time that the tracer
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Figure 4‐1. CALPUFF/CALMET UTM mo
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compact discs, which were used to o
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Table 4‐4. CALPUFF parameters use
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Table 4‐8. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivi
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the fitted Gaussian plume is not a
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Figure 4‐2. Comparison of predict
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Figure 5‐1. Location of Dayton an
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MM5 runs, the first without FDDA (i
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Table 5‐3. MM5 sensitivity tests
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Table 5‐6. Definition of the CALM
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performance at the monitor location
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Page 117 and 118: 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% F
Page 119 and 120: 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% E
Page 121 and 122: 5.4.1.4 Comparison of CALPUFF CTEX3
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Page 125 and 126: CTEX3 discussed in Section 5.4.1. A
Page 127 and 128: CALPUFF sensitivity simulations are
Page 129 and 130: 14. Across all the spatial statisti
Page 131 and 132: sensitivity tests. The “B” seri
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Page 135 and 136: 6.0 1994 EUROPEAN TRACER EXPERIMENT
Page 137 and 138: Figure 6‐2a. Surface synoptic met
Page 139 and 140: Figure 6‐3a. Distribution of the
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Page 145 and 146: experienced during the original ETE
Page 147 and 148: 2 1 0 ‐1 ‐2 3 2 1 0 23‐Oct 23
Page 149 and 150: 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Figu
Page 151 and 152: Figure 6‐9. Factor of Exceedance
Page 153 and 154: eceiving a 0.0 score. Figure 6‐13
Page 155 and 156: Table 6‐1. Summary of model ranki
Page 157 and 158: plume spread and observed surface c
Page 159 and 160: Figure 6‐16c. Comparison of spati
Page 161 and 162: • NoPiG: The tracer emissions wer
Page 163 and 164: Using the NMSE statistical performa
Page 165: 6.4.3.2 Effect of PiG on Model Perf
Page 169 and 170: Table 6‐3. Summary of CALPUFF puf
Page 171 and 172: 0.2 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.
Page 173 and 174: Figure 6‐ ‐22 displays the t sp
Page 175 and 176: Figure 6‐ ‐23a. Global model pe
Page 177 and 178: Figure 6‐24. Figure of Merit (FMS
Page 179 and 180: 7.0 REFERENCES Anderson, B. 2008. T
Page 181 and 182: EPA, 1984: Interim Procedures for E
Page 183 and 184: Mlawer, E.J., S.J. Taubman, P.D. Br
Page 185 and 186: 148 Appendix A Evaluation of the MM
Page 187 and 188: Table A‐1. Wind speed and wind di
Page 189 and 190: Table A‐3. Definition of the CTEX
Page 191 and 192: Figure A‐ ‐1. Wind speed bias (
Page 193 and 194: Figure A‐ ‐3. Humidity bias and
Page 195 and 196: Table A‐5. Comparison of CTEX5 MM
Page 197 and 198: B.1 CALMET MODEL EVALUATION TO IDEN
Page 199 and 200: Figure B‐ ‐1 displays th he win
Page 201 and 202: Table B‐2a. Summary wind speed mo
Page 203 and 204: B.2 CONCLUSIONS OF CTEX3 CALMET SEN
Page 205 and 206: C.1 INTRODUCTION In this section, t
Page 207 and 208: C.2.2 HYYSPLIT GLOB BAL STATISTIICS
Page 209 and 210: The final panel in Figure C‐3 (bo
Page 211 and 212: Figure C‐ ‐5. Global model m pe
Page 213 and 214: C.3 CAMX SENSITIVITY TESTS Followin
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Figure C‐ ‐10. Spatial model pe
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Figure C‐ ‐12. Global model per
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Figure C‐ ‐13. Spatial model pe
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Table C‐3. CAMx FMS and POD spati
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Figure C‐ ‐20. False Alarm Rate
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Figure C‐ ‐23. Factor of o Exce
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The PCC values for th he six LRT mo
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The RANK statistical performancce m
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Table C‐55. Summary y of model r
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Results foor the TS me etric are pr
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Figure C‐ ‐35. Factor of o 2 (F
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a negativve FB. The best b performm
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performing model the most often sco
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United States Environmental Protect
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