Documentation of the Evaluation of CALPUFF and Other Long ...

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start of the release and is stretched from the west coast of Sweden in the north to Hungary in the South. CALPUFF is displacing the tracer too far to the northeast with the centerline over the North Sea stretching from the northern tip of France to southern tip of Sweden and missing most of the observed tracer concentrations in France, Germany and Czechoslovakia. SCIPUFF covers the spatial extent of the observed tracer cloud, and then some, correctly estimating the coverage across Germany and Czechoslovakia. FLEXPART reproduces the easterly transport of the observed tracer clouds 36 hours after the start of the release, but greatly underestimates the ground level plume spread. HYSPLIT also reproduces the easterly transport of the observed tracer plume but also understates the plume spread missing the observed tracer concentrations in southern Germany and Czechoslovakia. CAMx has a similar distribution as SCIPUFF with less of an overestimation bias locating the tracer center of mass slightly too far north. After 36 hours from the start of the tracer release the leading edge of the observed tracer is just entering Poland from Germany, which is reproduced well by SCIPUFF, HYSPLIT and CAMx with FLEXPART having a lag and CALPUFF locating the leading edge of the tracer too far north. By 48 hours after the beginning of the tracer release, the observed tracer cloud is exhibiting a northwest to southeast orientation stretching from Denmark in the northwest to Hungary in the southeast (Figure 6‐16c). The CALPUFF tracer plume, however, is advected too far north into the North Sea and southern Finland with a circular Gaussian puff distribution. SCIPUFF correctly reproduces the northwest to southeast orientation of the observed tracer cloud and almost completely covers the observed tracer cloud but appears to overestimate the spatial extent and concentrations of the observed tracer. HYSPLIT and FLEXPART also are exhibiting a northwest to southeast orientation of the observed tracer cloud but both models, and especially FLEXPART, understate the spatial spread of the observed ground level tracer concentrations. CAMx reproduces the northwest to southeast orientation of the observed tracer distribution and appears to better match the observed tracer plume spread than SCIPUFF (overstated) and FLEXPART and HYSPLIT (understated). After 60 hours after the beginning of the tracer release, the observed tracer cloud still has the northwest to southeast orientation that stretches from southern Finland in the northwest to the most western point of Romania. The CALPUFF model has advected its circular puffs to the north with the center over the North Sea just west of southern Finland almost completely missing the spatial extent of the observed tracer. The other four LRT dispersion models are correctly estimating the northwest to southeast orientation of the observed tracer pattern 60 hours after the beginning of the tracer release. However, the remaining four LRT models (less CALPUFF) estimate different amounts of plume spread with FLEXPART estimating a very narrow predicted tracer cloud that understates the observed spread of the tracer footprint. SCIPUFF estimated the largest spatial extent of the tracer cloud that is much larger than observed. HYSPLIT and CAMx estimated tracer spread that is closer to what was observed. The comparison of the spatial distribution of the predicted and observed tracer concentrations from the ETEX1 experiment helps explain the statistical model performance presented earlier. The poor performance of the CALPUFF model is because it keeps the tracer in a circular Gaussian plume distribution that is advected too far north and fails to reproduce the elongation and stretching of the observed tracer cloud in the northwest to southeast orientation. The other four LRT dispersion models do allow the predicted tracer cloud to take on the northwest to southeast distribution matching the basic features of the observed tracer footprint well, but with different amounts of plume spread. FLEXPART greatly understates the amount of tracer 119
plume spread and observed surface concentrations, whereas SCIPUFF overstates the amount of plume spread as well as the surface concentrations. Figure 6‐16a. Comparison of spatial distribution of the ETEX tracer concentrations 24 hours after release for the observed (top left), CALPUFF (top right), SCIPUFF (middle left), FLEXPART (middle right), HYSPLIT (bottom left) and CAMx (bottom right). 120
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Documentation of the Evaluation of
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FOREWARD This report documents the
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2.4.3 ATMES‐II Model Evaluation A
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ABSTRACT The CALP
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OVERVIEW OF APPROACH Up to six LRT
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CALPUFF performance is evaluated by
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Table ES‐2. ATMES‐II spatial an
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• CALPUFF tended to overstate the
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• The best performing CALPUFF con
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2009a). The key findings from the C
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1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
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2.4 2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0 EXP4A EXP4B
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Figure ESS‐4. RANK statistical pe
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Evaluatioon of Six LRT T Dispersion
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Table ES‐6. Summary of model rank
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eproduce the northwest to southeast
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ETEX LRT Dispersion Model Sensitivi
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CONCLUSIONS OF LRT DISPERSION MODEL
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The CAMx and CALGRID Eulerian photo
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July 1980. Both experiments examine
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1.3 ORGANIZATION OF REPORT Chapter
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puffs expand until they exceed the
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that performance evaluation be base
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The ETEX real‐time LRT modeling p
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The ETEX study has formulated the f
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In this study we expand the LRT mod
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AM ∩ AP FMS = × 100% (2‐2) A
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Factor of α (FAα): FAα represent
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3.0 1980 GREAT PLAINS FIELD STUDY 3
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compact discs, which were used to o
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ILEVZI = 1 Layer of winds to use in
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MCHEM = 0 No chemical transformatio
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Table 3‐6. CALPUFF/CALMET experim
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Table 3‐11. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitiv
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evaluation studies and evaluate whe
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Tables 3‐13 and Figures 3‐2 thr
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140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
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30% 20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30%
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120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20%
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20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% ‐
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The fitted Gaussian plume statistic
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0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% ‐40% ‐5
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300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 300
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60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20% ‐40% ‐60%
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with APS, implementing the slug opt
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the amount of time that the tracer
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Figure 4‐1. CALPUFF/CALMET UTM mo
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compact discs, which were used to o
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Table 4‐4. CALPUFF parameters use
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Table 4‐8. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivi
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the fitted Gaussian plume is not a
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Figure 4‐2. Comparison of predict
Page 105 and 106: Figure 5‐1. Location of Dayton an
Page 107 and 108: MM5 runs, the first without FDDA (i
Page 109 and 110: Table 5‐3. MM5 sensitivity tests
Page 111 and 112: Table 5‐6. Definition of the CALM
Page 113 and 114: performance at the monitor location
Page 115 and 116: 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 35% 3
Page 117 and 118: 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% F
Page 119 and 120: 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% E
Page 121 and 122: 5.4.1.4 Comparison of CALPUFF CTEX3
Page 123 and 124: 0.48 0.36 0.24 0.12 0 ‐0.12 16% 1
Page 125 and 126: CTEX3 discussed in Section 5.4.1. A
Page 127 and 128: CALPUFF sensitivity simulations are
Page 129 and 130: 14. Across all the spatial statisti
Page 131 and 132: sensitivity tests. The “B” seri
Page 133 and 134: ‐0.1 ‐0.2 0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
Page 135 and 136: 6.0 1994 EUROPEAN TRACER EXPERIMENT
Page 137 and 138: Figure 6‐2a. Surface synoptic met
Page 139 and 140: Figure 6‐3a. Distribution of the
Page 141 and 142: 36 kilometers and the vertical stru
Page 143 and 144: splitting flag near sunset (hour 17
Page 145 and 146: experienced during the original ETE
Page 147 and 148: 2 1 0 ‐1 ‐2 3 2 1 0 23‐Oct 23
Page 149 and 150: 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Figu
Page 151 and 152: Figure 6‐9. Factor of Exceedance
Page 153 and 154: eceiving a 0.0 score. Figure 6‐13
Page 155: Table 6‐1. Summary of model ranki
Page 159 and 160: Figure 6‐16c. Comparison of spati
Page 161 and 162: • NoPiG: The tracer emissions wer
Page 163 and 164: Using the NMSE statistical performa
Page 165 and 166: 6.4.3.2 Effect of PiG on Model Perf
Page 167 and 168: 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5
Page 169 and 170: Table 6‐3. Summary of CALPUFF puf
Page 171 and 172: 0.2 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.
Page 173 and 174: Figure 6‐ ‐22 displays the t sp
Page 175 and 176: Figure 6‐ ‐23a. Global model pe
Page 177 and 178: Figure 6‐24. Figure of Merit (FMS
Page 179 and 180: 7.0 REFERENCES Anderson, B. 2008. T
Page 181 and 182: EPA, 1984: Interim Procedures for E
Page 183 and 184: Mlawer, E.J., S.J. Taubman, P.D. Br
Page 185 and 186: 148 Appendix A Evaluation of the MM
Page 187 and 188: Table A‐1. Wind speed and wind di
Page 189 and 190: Table A‐3. Definition of the CTEX
Page 191 and 192: Figure A‐ ‐1. Wind speed bias (
Page 193 and 194: Figure A‐ ‐3. Humidity bias and
Page 195 and 196: Table A‐5. Comparison of CTEX5 MM
Page 197 and 198: B.1 CALMET MODEL EVALUATION TO IDEN
Page 199 and 200: Figure B‐ ‐1 displays th he win
Page 201 and 202: Table B‐2a. Summary wind speed mo
Page 203 and 204: B.2 CONCLUSIONS OF CTEX3 CALMET SEN
Page 205 and 206: C.1 INTRODUCTION In this section, t
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C.2.2 HYYSPLIT GLOB BAL STATISTIICS
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The final panel in Figure C‐3 (bo
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Figure C‐ ‐5. Global model m pe
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C.3 CAMX SENSITIVITY TESTS Followin
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ACM2 Kzz combinatio ons rank as the
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Figure C‐ ‐10. Spatial model pe
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Figure C‐ ‐12. Global model per
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Figure C‐ ‐13. Spatial model pe
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Table C‐3. CAMx FMS and POD spati
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Figure C‐ ‐20. False Alarm Rate
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Figure C‐ ‐23. Factor of o Exce
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The PCC values for th he six LRT mo
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The RANK statistical performancce m
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Table C‐55. Summary y of model r
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Results foor the TS me etric are pr
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Figure C‐ ‐35. Factor of o 2 (F
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a negativve FB. The best b performm
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performing model the most often sco
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United States Environmental Protect
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