Documentation of the Evaluation of CALPUFF and Other Long ...

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the “D” series of CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests with the 36KM_MMIF exhibiting the lowest bias and error statistics; 12KM_MMIF has the second lowest FB and third lowest NMSE. For the within a factor of 2 and 5 statistics the “D” series performs better than the “B” series of CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests. The 12KM_MMIF has by far the lowest FA2 metric but has a FA5 metric that is comparable to the “D” series of CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests. By far the best performing model configuration for the FA5 metric is 36KM_MMIF whose value (15%) is almost double the next best performing CALPUFF model configurations (7% to 9%). The 36KM_MMIF (0.43) followed closely by the 12KM_MMIF (0.40) are by far the best performing sensitivity tests according to the correlation coefficient statistical metric with the CALPUFF/CALMET tracer estimates showing a small negative correlation with the observations (‐0.07 to ‐0.08). According to the composite RANK statistic, 36KM_MMIF (1.61) is the best performing CALPUFF sensitivity test of this group followed by 12KM_MMIF (1.43). The CALPUFF/CALMET RANK statistics range from 1.16 to 1.32 with the “D” series typically performing better (~1.3) than the “B” series (~1.2) with the exception of EXP1B (1.3). 0% ‐5% ‐10% ‐15% ‐20% 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 BASE B BASE B EXP 1B EXP 1B EXP 1D EXP 1D Factor of Exceedance (FOEX) (Perfect = 0%) EXP 3B EXP 3B EXP 3D EXP 4B EXP 4D EXP 5B Fractional Bias (FB) (Perfect = 0) EXP 3D EXP 4B EXP 4D EXP 5B EXP 5D EXP 5D EXP 6B EXP 6B EXP 6D EXP 6D Figure 5‐9a. Global model performance statistics for the CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests using different MM4/MM5 grid resolutions. 12K MMIF 12K MMIF 85 36K MMIF 36K MMIF 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% Normalized Mean Square Error (NMSE) (Perfect = 0) BASE B EXP 1B EXP 1D EXP 3B EXP 3D EXP 4B EXP 4D EXP 5B EXP 5D EXP 6B EXP 6D 12K MMIF 36K MMIF Kolmogorov‐Smirnov Parameter (KSP) (Perfect = 0%) BASE B EXP 1B EXP 1D EXP 3B EXP 3D EXP 4B EXP 4D EXP 5B EXP 5D EXP 6B EXP 6D 12K MMIF 36K MMIF
0.48 0.36 0.24 0.12 0 ‐0.12 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% BASEB EXP1B Factor of 2 and 5 (Perfect = 100%) EXP1D EXP3B Pearson's Correlation Coefficient (PCC) (Perfect = 1) EXP3D EXP4B BASE B EXP 1B EXP 1D EXP 3B EXP 3D EXP 4B EXP 4D EXP 5B EXP 5D EXP 6B EXP 6D 12K MMIF 36K MMIF EXP4D EXP5B Figure 5‐9b. Global model performance statistics for the CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests using different MM4/MM5 grid resolutions (high scores indicate better model performance). 5.4.1.5 Rankings of CTEX3 CALPUFF Sensitivity Tests using the RANK Statistic The ranking of all of the CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests using the composite RANK model performance statistics is given in Table 5‐9. The 36KM_MMIF (1.61) is the highest ranked CALPUFF sensitivity test using RANK followed by 12KM_MMIF (1.43) which is very close to EXP3A and EXP4A that are tied for third with a RANK value of 1.40. It is interesting to note that the EXP3A and EXP4A CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity test that uses the, respectively, 36 km and 12 km MM5 data with 12 km CALMET grid resolution and RMAX1/RMAX2 values of 500/1000 is tied for third best performing CALPUFF/CALMET configuration using the RANK statistic, but the same model configuration with alternative RMAX1/RMAX2 values of 10/100 (EXP3C and EXP4C) degrades the model performance to the worst performing CALPUFF configuration according to the RANK statistics with a RANK value of 1.12. Based on the RANK statistic and the CALPUFF sensitivity test rankings in Table 5‐9 we conclude the following for the CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests: • The CALPUFF MMIF sensitivity tests are the best performing configuration for the CTEX3 experiments. • The CALPUFF/CALMET “B” series (RMAX1/RMAX2 = 100/200) appears to be the worst performing configuration for RMAX1/RMAX2. • The CALMET/CALPUFF “A” series seems to be the best performing RMAX1/RMAX2 setting (500/1000) followed by the “C” series (10/100) then “D” series (no met observations). • Ignoring the “B” series of sensitivity tests, the CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests that use higher MM5 grid resolution (36 and 12 km) tend to produce better model performance than those that used the 80 km MM4 data. 86 EXP5D EXP6B 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 EXP6D 12KM_MMIF 36KM_MMIF FA2 FA5 Rank (RANK) (Perfect = 4) BASEB EXP1B EXP1D EXP3B EXP3D EXP4B EXP4D EXP5B EXP5D EXP6B EXP6D 12KM_MMIF 36KM_MMIF (1‐KS/100) FMS/100 (1‐FB/2) R^2
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Documentation of the Evaluation of
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FOREWARD This report documents the
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2.4.3 ATMES‐II Model Evaluation A
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ABSTRACT The CALP
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OVERVIEW OF APPROACH Up to six LRT
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CALPUFF performance is evaluated by
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Table ES‐2. ATMES‐II spatial an
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• CALPUFF tended to overstate the
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• The best performing CALPUFF con
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2009a). The key findings from the C
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1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
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2.4 2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0 EXP4A EXP4B
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Figure ESS‐4. RANK statistical pe
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Evaluatioon of Six LRT T Dispersion
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Table ES‐6. Summary of model rank
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eproduce the northwest to southeast
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ETEX LRT Dispersion Model Sensitivi
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CONCLUSIONS OF LRT DISPERSION MODEL
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The CAMx and CALGRID Eulerian photo
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July 1980. Both experiments examine
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1.3 ORGANIZATION OF REPORT Chapter
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puffs expand until they exceed the
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that performance evaluation be base
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The ETEX real‐time LRT modeling p
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The ETEX study has formulated the f
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In this study we expand the LRT mod
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AM ∩ AP FMS = × 100% (2‐2) A
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Factor of α (FAα): FAα represent
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3.0 1980 GREAT PLAINS FIELD STUDY 3
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compact discs, which were used to o
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ILEVZI = 1 Layer of winds to use in
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MCHEM = 0 No chemical transformatio
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Table 3‐6. CALPUFF/CALMET experim
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Table 3‐11. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitiv
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evaluation studies and evaluate whe
Page 71 and 72: Tables 3‐13 and Figures 3‐2 thr
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Page 77 and 78: 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20%
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Page 81 and 82: The fitted Gaussian plume statistic
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Page 89 and 90: with APS, implementing the slug opt
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Page 93 and 94: Figure 4‐1. CALPUFF/CALMET UTM mo
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Page 97 and 98: Table 4‐4. CALPUFF parameters use
Page 99 and 100: Table 4‐8. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivi
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Page 103 and 104: Figure 4‐2. Comparison of predict
Page 105 and 106: Figure 5‐1. Location of Dayton an
Page 107 and 108: MM5 runs, the first without FDDA (i
Page 109 and 110: Table 5‐3. MM5 sensitivity tests
Page 111 and 112: Table 5‐6. Definition of the CALM
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Page 119 and 120: 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% E
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Page 127 and 128: CALPUFF sensitivity simulations are
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Page 135 and 136: 6.0 1994 EUROPEAN TRACER EXPERIMENT
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Page 153 and 154: eceiving a 0.0 score. Figure 6‐13
Page 155 and 156: Table 6‐1. Summary of model ranki
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Page 159 and 160: Figure 6‐16c. Comparison of spati
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Page 163 and 164: Using the NMSE statistical performa
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Page 169 and 170: Table 6‐3. Summary of CALPUFF puf
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Figure 6‐ ‐22 displays the t sp
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Figure 6‐ ‐23a. Global model pe
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Figure 6‐24. Figure of Merit (FMS
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7.0 REFERENCES Anderson, B. 2008. T
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EPA, 1984: Interim Procedures for E
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Mlawer, E.J., S.J. Taubman, P.D. Br
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148 Appendix A Evaluation of the MM
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Table A‐1. Wind speed and wind di
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Table A‐3. Definition of the CTEX
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Figure A‐ ‐1. Wind speed bias (
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Figure A‐ ‐3. Humidity bias and
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Table A‐5. Comparison of CTEX5 MM
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B.1 CALMET MODEL EVALUATION TO IDEN
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Figure B‐ ‐1 displays th he win
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Table B‐2a. Summary wind speed mo
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B.2 CONCLUSIONS OF CTEX3 CALMET SEN
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C.1 INTRODUCTION In this section, t
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C.2.2 HYYSPLIT GLOB BAL STATISTIICS
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The final panel in Figure C‐3 (bo
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Figure C‐ ‐5. Global model m pe
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C.3 CAMX SENSITIVITY TESTS Followin
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ACM2 Kzz combinatio ons rank as the
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Figure C‐ ‐10. Spatial model pe
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Figure C‐ ‐12. Global model per
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Figure C‐ ‐13. Spatial model pe
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Table C‐3. CAMx FMS and POD spati
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Figure C‐ ‐20. False Alarm Rate
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Figure C‐ ‐23. Factor of o Exce
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The PCC values for th he six LRT mo
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The RANK statistical performancce m
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Table C‐55. Summary y of model r
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Results foor the TS me etric are pr
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Figure C‐ ‐35. Factor of o 2 (F
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a negativve FB. The best b performm
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performing model the most often sco
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United States Environmental Protect
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