Documentation of the Evaluation of CALPUFF and Other Long ...

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0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1 1.4 1.2 Figure 5‐7a. Global model performance statistics for the CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests using the 12 km MM5 data. 0.48 0.36 0.24 0.12 0% ‐5% ‐10% ‐15% ‐20% 0 ‐0.12 EXP 4A EXP 4A EXP 4B Factor of Exceedance (FOEX) (Perfect = 0%) EXP 4B EXP 4C EXP 4D EXP 6A EXP 6B Fractional Bias (FB) (Perfect = 0) EXP 4C EXP 4D 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% EXP 6A EXP4A EXP 6B EXP4B EXP 6C EXP 6C EXP4C Pearson's Correlation Coefficient (PCC) (Perfect = 1) EXP 4A EXP 4B EXP 4C EXP 4D EXP 6A EXP 6B EXP 6C EXP 6D EXP 6D Figure 5‐7b. Global model performance statistics for the CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests using the 12 km MM5 data (high scores indicate better model performance). 12K MMIF 83 12K MMIF 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Factor of 2 and 5 (Perfect = 100%) EXP 6D EXP4D 12K MMIF EXP6A EXP6B EXP6C EXP6D 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 EXP 4A EXP4A EXP 4A Normalized Mean Square Error (NMSE) (Perfect = 0) EXP 4B EXP 4B EXP 4C EXP 4C EXP 4D EXP 4D EXP 6A EXP 6A EXP 6B EXP 6B EXP 6C EXP 6C EXP 6D Kolmogorov‐Smirnov Parameter (KSP) (Perfect = 0%) 12KM_MMIF EXP4B EXP4C FA2 FA5 Rank (RANK) (Perfect = 4) EXP4D EXP6A EXP6B EXP6C EXP6D 12KM_MMIF EXP 6D (1‐KS/100) FMS/100 (1‐FB/2) R^2 12K MMIF 12K MMIF
5.4.1.4 Comparison of CALPUFF CTEX3 Model Evaluation using Different MM4/MM5 Grid Resolutions In the final series of CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests we grouped the “B” and “D” series of CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests that use the EPA‐FLM recommended RMAX1/RMAX2 settings (100/200) and no met observations, respectively, using the various MM5 data and grid resolutions in CALMET with the 12KM_MMIF and 36KM_MMIF CALPUFF sensitivity tests. The spatial model performance statistics are shown in Figure 5‐8. The 36KM_MMIF and 12KM_MMIF have the best and second best FMS statistics (36% and 32%) followed by EXP3D and EXP6D (29%). The worst performing FMS statistics are given by the “B” series of CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests with values ranging from 23% to 25%. The 36KM_MMIF has by far the lowest (best) FAR value (68%) followed by 12KM _MMIF (74%) with the “B” series of CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests having the worst (highest) FAR values that approach 80%. A clear pattern is seen in the POD statistic for the CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests with the “D” series using no met observations clearly performing better (33%) than the “B” series (19% to 25%). However, the best performing CALPUFF sensitivity test using the POD statistics is 36KM_MMIF (36%). Oddly, the 12KM_MMIF is one of the worst performing configurations with POD value the same as many of the “B” series (25%). 36KM_MMIF (20%) is also the best performing CALPUFF sensitivity test according to the TS statistic with the no met observations (“D” series) CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests (15% to 16%) and 12KM_MMIF (15%) having better TS values than when met observations are used with CALMET (10% to 14%). 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% BASE B BASE B EXP 1B EXP 1B EXP 1D EXP 1D False Alarm Rate (FAR) (Perfect = 0%) EXP 3B EXP 3D EXP 4B EXP 4D EXP 5B EXP 5D EXP 6B Probability of Detection (POD) (Perfect = 100%) EXP 3B EXP 3D EXP 4B EXP 4D EXP 5B EXP 5D EXP 6D EXP 6B 12K MMIF EXP 6D Figure 5‐8. Spatial model performance statistics for the CTEX3 CALPUF sensitivity tests using different MM4/MM5 grid resolutions. For the FOEX and KSP global statistical metrics, the “D” series of CALPUFF/CALPUFF sensitivity tests is clearly performing better than the “B” series with 12KM_MMIF one of the worst performing model configurations for these two statistics (Figure 5‐9a). However, the “B” series of CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests is exhibiting lower bias (FB) and error (NMSE) than 84 36K MMIF 12K MMIF 36K MMIF 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 25% 20% 15% 10% Figure of Metric in Space (FMS) (Perfect = 100%) BASE B EXP 1B EXP 1D EXP 3B EXP 3D EXP 4B EXP 4D EXP 5B EXP 5D EXP 6B EXP 6D 12K MMIF 36K MMIF Threat Score (TS) (Perfect = 100%) BASE B EXP 1B EXP 1D EXP 3B EXP 3D EXP 4B EXP 4D EXP 5B EXP 5D EXP 6B EXP 6D 12K MMIF 36K MMIF
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Documentation of the Evaluation of
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FOREWARD This report documents the
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2.4.3 ATMES‐II Model Evaluation A
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ABSTRACT The CALP
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OVERVIEW OF APPROACH Up to six LRT
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CALPUFF performance is evaluated by
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Table ES‐2. ATMES‐II spatial an
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• CALPUFF tended to overstate the
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• The best performing CALPUFF con
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2009a). The key findings from the C
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1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
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2.4 2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0 EXP4A EXP4B
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Figure ESS‐4. RANK statistical pe
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Evaluatioon of Six LRT T Dispersion
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Table ES‐6. Summary of model rank
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eproduce the northwest to southeast
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ETEX LRT Dispersion Model Sensitivi
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CONCLUSIONS OF LRT DISPERSION MODEL
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The CAMx and CALGRID Eulerian photo
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July 1980. Both experiments examine
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1.3 ORGANIZATION OF REPORT Chapter
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puffs expand until they exceed the
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that performance evaluation be base
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The ETEX real‐time LRT modeling p
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The ETEX study has formulated the f
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In this study we expand the LRT mod
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AM ∩ AP FMS = × 100% (2‐2) A
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Factor of α (FAα): FAα represent
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3.0 1980 GREAT PLAINS FIELD STUDY 3
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compact discs, which were used to o
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ILEVZI = 1 Layer of winds to use in
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MCHEM = 0 No chemical transformatio
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Table 3‐6. CALPUFF/CALMET experim
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Table 3‐11. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitiv
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Page 77 and 78: 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20%
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Page 81 and 82: The fitted Gaussian plume statistic
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Page 89 and 90: with APS, implementing the slug opt
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Page 93 and 94: Figure 4‐1. CALPUFF/CALMET UTM mo
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Page 97 and 98: Table 4‐4. CALPUFF parameters use
Page 99 and 100: Table 4‐8. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivi
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Page 103 and 104: Figure 4‐2. Comparison of predict
Page 105 and 106: Figure 5‐1. Location of Dayton an
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Page 109 and 110: Table 5‐3. MM5 sensitivity tests
Page 111 and 112: Table 5‐6. Definition of the CALM
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Page 125 and 126: CTEX3 discussed in Section 5.4.1. A
Page 127 and 128: CALPUFF sensitivity simulations are
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Page 135 and 136: 6.0 1994 EUROPEAN TRACER EXPERIMENT
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Page 153 and 154: eceiving a 0.0 score. Figure 6‐13
Page 155 and 156: Table 6‐1. Summary of model ranki
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Page 169 and 170: Table 6‐3. Summary of CALPUFF puf
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0.2 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.
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Figure 6‐ ‐22 displays the t sp
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Figure 6‐ ‐23a. Global model pe
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Figure 6‐24. Figure of Merit (FMS
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7.0 REFERENCES Anderson, B. 2008. T
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EPA, 1984: Interim Procedures for E
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Mlawer, E.J., S.J. Taubman, P.D. Br
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148 Appendix A Evaluation of the MM
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Table A‐1. Wind speed and wind di
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Table A‐3. Definition of the CTEX
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Figure A‐ ‐1. Wind speed bias (
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Figure A‐ ‐3. Humidity bias and
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Table A‐5. Comparison of CTEX5 MM
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B.1 CALMET MODEL EVALUATION TO IDEN
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Figure B‐ ‐1 displays th he win
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Table B‐2a. Summary wind speed mo
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B.2 CONCLUSIONS OF CTEX3 CALMET SEN
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C.1 INTRODUCTION In this section, t
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C.2.2 HYYSPLIT GLOB BAL STATISTIICS
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The final panel in Figure C‐3 (bo
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Figure C‐ ‐5. Global model m pe
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C.3 CAMX SENSITIVITY TESTS Followin
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ACM2 Kzz combinatio ons rank as the
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Figure C‐ ‐10. Spatial model pe
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Figure C‐ ‐12. Global model per
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Figure C‐ ‐13. Spatial model pe
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Table C‐3. CAMx FMS and POD spati
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Figure C‐ ‐20. False Alarm Rate
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Figure C‐ ‐23. Factor of o Exce
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The PCC values for th he six LRT mo
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The RANK statistical performancce m
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Table C‐55. Summary y of model r
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Results foor the TS me etric are pr
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Figure C‐ ‐35. Factor of o 2 (F
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a negativve FB. The best b performm
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performing model the most often sco
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United States Environmental Protect
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