Documentation of the Evaluation of CALPUFF and Other Long ...

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5.0 1983 CROSS APPALACHIAN TRACER EXPERIMENT 5.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE 1983 CROSS APPALACHIAN TRACER EXPERIMENT A series of tracer test field experiments were conducted between September 18 and October 29, 1983 over the northeastern U.S. and southeastern Canada (Ferber et al., 1986; Draxler et al., 1988). The Cross‐Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX) consisted of 5 tracer releases from Dayton, Ohio and 2 tracer releases from Sudbury, Ontario. Each release was independent of the others and was conducted when the forecast was for the tracer to pass through the center of the sampling network. Samplers were placed at a variety of locations in the northeast U.S. and southeast Canada to distances of about 1,000 km from Dayton. Although synoptic meteorological conditions were similar between releases at each location, there were large differences in the spatial concentration patterns, from narrow to wide. There was even a case of the tracer plume passing over the samplers without mixing to the surface. The CALPUFF LRT modeling system was evaluated for various model configurations and meteorological inputs using two of the five CAPTEX tracer release experiments: CTEX3: The third CAPTEX tracer release occurred on October 2, 1983 where a tracer was released from Dayton, Ohio for two hours between the hours of 1400 and 1600 LST with a release rate of 18.611 g/s. CTEX5: The fifth CAPTEX tracer release occurred during the end of October with a two hour tracer release from Sudbury, Ontario between hour 23 on October 25, 1983 and hour 01 on October 26, 1983 with a release rate of 16.667 g/s. Figure 5‐1 displays the locations of the two tracer release sites and the tracer sampling network for the CAPTEX tracer field experiments. Also shown in Figure 5‐1 are the CALPUFF, CALMET and MMIF modeling domains. This section describes the evaluation of the CALPUFF LRT dispersion model using the CTEX3 and CTEX5 field experiments using numerous sensitivity tests with alternative meteorological inputs. Appendices A and B present the evaluation of the MM5 and CALMET sensitivity simulations using surface meteorological observations for the, respectively, CTEX5 and CTEX3 experiments. Appendix C presents the evaluation of six LRT dispersion models using the CTEX3 and CTEX5 field studies and common MM5 meteorological inputs. 67
Figure 5‐1. Location of Dayton and Sudbury tracer release sites and the tracer sampling network for the CAPTEX tracer field experiments. 5.2 MODEL CONFIGURATION AND APPLICATION CALPUFF was applied using several different meteorological inputs. The first set was designed to use the same meteorological modeling technology as used in previous years to evaluate CALPUFF V4.0 only using the current regulatory versions of CALPUFF (V5.8) to document the effects of version changes. For the CTEX5 experiment period, the MM5 prognostic meteorological model was applied using grid resolutions of 80, 36 and 12 km to investigate the sensitivity of CALMET and CALPUFF model performance to MM5 grid resolution. For the CTEX3 experiment period, MM5 modeling was performed using grid resolution of 36 and 12 km, for the MM5 80 km sensitivity tests historical 80 km MM4 output data were utilized. CALMET was also run with different grid resolutions (18, 12 and 4 km) using the different MM5/MM4 grid resolution data as input. CALPUFF V5.8 was evaluated using the ATMES‐II procedures using the various MM5/CALMET meteorological inputs, as well as inputs from the Mesoscale Model Interface (MMIF) tool that performs a “pass through” of the MM5 meteorological output to provide meteorological inputs to CALPUFF. 68
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Documentation of the Evaluation of
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FOREWARD This report documents the
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2.4.3 ATMES‐II Model Evaluation A
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ABSTRACT The CALP
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OVERVIEW OF APPROACH Up to six LRT
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CALPUFF performance is evaluated by
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Table ES‐2. ATMES‐II spatial an
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• CALPUFF tended to overstate the
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• The best performing CALPUFF con
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2009a). The key findings from the C
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1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
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2.4 2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0 EXP4A EXP4B
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Figure ESS‐4. RANK statistical pe
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Evaluatioon of Six LRT T Dispersion
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Table ES‐6. Summary of model rank
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eproduce the northwest to southeast
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ETEX LRT Dispersion Model Sensitivi
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CONCLUSIONS OF LRT DISPERSION MODEL
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The CAMx and CALGRID Eulerian photo
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July 1980. Both experiments examine
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1.3 ORGANIZATION OF REPORT Chapter
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puffs expand until they exceed the
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that performance evaluation be base
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The ETEX real‐time LRT modeling p
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The ETEX study has formulated the f
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In this study we expand the LRT mod
Page 53 and 54: AM ∩ AP FMS = × 100% (2‐2) A
Page 55 and 56: Factor of α (FAα): FAα represent
Page 57 and 58: 3.0 1980 GREAT PLAINS FIELD STUDY 3
Page 59 and 60: compact discs, which were used to o
Page 61 and 62: ILEVZI = 1 Layer of winds to use in
Page 63 and 64: MCHEM = 0 No chemical transformatio
Page 65 and 66: Table 3‐6. CALPUFF/CALMET experim
Page 67 and 68: Table 3‐11. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitiv
Page 69 and 70: evaluation studies and evaluate whe
Page 71 and 72: Tables 3‐13 and Figures 3‐2 thr
Page 73 and 74: 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Page 75 and 76: 30% 20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30%
Page 77 and 78: 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20%
Page 79 and 80: 20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% ‐
Page 81 and 82: The fitted Gaussian plume statistic
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Page 85 and 86: 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 300
Page 87 and 88: 60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20% ‐40% ‐60%
Page 89 and 90: with APS, implementing the slug opt
Page 91 and 92: the amount of time that the tracer
Page 93 and 94: Figure 4‐1. CALPUFF/CALMET UTM mo
Page 95 and 96: compact discs, which were used to o
Page 97 and 98: Table 4‐4. CALPUFF parameters use
Page 99 and 100: Table 4‐8. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivi
Page 101 and 102: the fitted Gaussian plume is not a
Page 103: Figure 4‐2. Comparison of predict
Page 107 and 108: MM5 runs, the first without FDDA (i
Page 109 and 110: Table 5‐3. MM5 sensitivity tests
Page 111 and 112: Table 5‐6. Definition of the CALM
Page 113 and 114: performance at the monitor location
Page 115 and 116: 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 35% 3
Page 117 and 118: 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% F
Page 119 and 120: 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% E
Page 121 and 122: 5.4.1.4 Comparison of CALPUFF CTEX3
Page 123 and 124: 0.48 0.36 0.24 0.12 0 ‐0.12 16% 1
Page 125 and 126: CTEX3 discussed in Section 5.4.1. A
Page 127 and 128: CALPUFF sensitivity simulations are
Page 129 and 130: 14. Across all the spatial statisti
Page 131 and 132: sensitivity tests. The “B” seri
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Page 135 and 136: 6.0 1994 EUROPEAN TRACER EXPERIMENT
Page 137 and 138: Figure 6‐2a. Surface synoptic met
Page 139 and 140: Figure 6‐3a. Distribution of the
Page 141 and 142: 36 kilometers and the vertical stru
Page 143 and 144: splitting flag near sunset (hour 17
Page 145 and 146: experienced during the original ETE
Page 147 and 148: 2 1 0 ‐1 ‐2 3 2 1 0 23‐Oct 23
Page 149 and 150: 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Figu
Page 151 and 152: Figure 6‐9. Factor of Exceedance
Page 153 and 154: eceiving a 0.0 score. Figure 6‐13
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Table 6‐1. Summary of model ranki
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plume spread and observed surface c
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Figure 6‐16c. Comparison of spati
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• NoPiG: The tracer emissions wer
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Using the NMSE statistical performa
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6.4.3.2 Effect of PiG on Model Perf
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80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5
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Table 6‐3. Summary of CALPUFF puf
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0.2 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.
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Figure 6‐ ‐22 displays the t sp
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Figure 6‐ ‐23a. Global model pe
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Figure 6‐24. Figure of Merit (FMS
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7.0 REFERENCES Anderson, B. 2008. T
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EPA, 1984: Interim Procedures for E
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Mlawer, E.J., S.J. Taubman, P.D. Br
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148 Appendix A Evaluation of the MM
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Table A‐1. Wind speed and wind di
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Table A‐3. Definition of the CTEX
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Figure A‐ ‐1. Wind speed bias (
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Figure A‐ ‐3. Humidity bias and
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Table A‐5. Comparison of CTEX5 MM
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B.1 CALMET MODEL EVALUATION TO IDEN
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Figure B‐ ‐1 displays th he win
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Table B‐2a. Summary wind speed mo
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B.2 CONCLUSIONS OF CTEX3 CALMET SEN
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C.1 INTRODUCTION In this section, t
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C.2.2 HYYSPLIT GLOB BAL STATISTIICS
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The final panel in Figure C‐3 (bo
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Figure C‐ ‐5. Global model m pe
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C.3 CAMX SENSITIVITY TESTS Followin
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ACM2 Kzz combinatio ons rank as the
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Figure C‐ ‐10. Spatial model pe
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Figure C‐ ‐12. Global model per
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Figure C‐ ‐13. Spatial model pe
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Table C‐3. CAMx FMS and POD spati
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Figure C‐ ‐20. False Alarm Rate
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Figure C‐ ‐23. Factor of o Exce
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The PCC values for th he six LRT mo
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The RANK statistical performancce m
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Table C‐55. Summary y of model r
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Results foor the TS me etric are pr
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Figure C‐ ‐35. Factor of o 2 (F
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a negativve FB. The best b performm
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performing model the most often sco
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United States Environmental Protect
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