Oxford today

18 Oxonian&News University news
The patterns
concealed in
digital data
predicting outcomes using everyday tech
Wireless digital communications buzz around us all the time.
But while they’re simple personal messages to us as individuals,
for scholars across the University they are rich seams of data
to be analysed.
Take the work of Professor Bob Snow from the Nuffield
Department of Medicine. Based in Nairobi, he seeks to
understand the public health burden and spread of malaria
– but with little data explaining how people move around the
country, it’s an uphill struggle. Recently, though, he has
worked with colleagues from Harvard to analyse mobile
phone data from 15 million people in Kenya to ascertain how
humans travel around the country – and how they are likely
to contribute to the spread of malaria.
“We’ve shown that Kenya is so connected by travel that it
would be almost impossible to eliminate malaria anywhere,”
explains Snow. “Having this data has enormous value when
in dialogue with politicians who might think elimination
is possible.”
Elsewhere, Oxford researchers are using similar tricks to
map support for future politicians using Twitter – the social
network that allows users 140 characters to express their
thoughts. By analysing 132,771 tweets mentioning Barack
Obama and 120,637 mentioning Mitt Romney, Dr Mark
Graham from the Oxford Internet Institute was able to
predict Obama’s victory in the November 2012 US election.
In fact the Twitter analysis predicted a modest 52.4 per cent
majority for Obama, while in reality it was 59.5 per cent, but
“overall the outcome was accurate”, suggests Graham.
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BoB snow
RoB JUdGes
How did you become
interested in the study
of long-term ecology?
I originally studied a degree
in environmental science
because I’ve always been
interested in whole organism
ecology. Then I did a PhD in
plant sciences, looking at
plant responses to climate
change through time. I
became very interested in
a discipline known as
paleoecology, or long-term
ecology, and through that I
developed my interest in the
dynamics of ecology.
60 seconds with…
How have you found yourself
in the Zoology Department?
I was a professor in the
Geography Department at
Oxford for 10 years and
during that time a colleague
and I set up the Biodiversity
Conservation Masters
Programme. When the Tasso
Leventis chair was advertised,
based in Zoology, it offered a
fantastic opportunity to set
up a Biodiversity Institute,
funded by a generous
donation from the Oxford
Martin School.
What is your department
working on?
We have three key research
themes: ecological and
evolution processes
responsible for biodiversity;
biodiversity technologies; and
biodiversity beyond protected
areas. In biodiversity beyond
protected areas we’re looking
at where, outside of nature
reserves, we need to conserve
biodiversity and identifying
areas that businesses can
safely ‘damage’. It’s important
that we build a dialogue with
people in industry.
Kathy Willis
Biodiversity Institute Director
and Fellow of Merton College
How are you harnessing
new technology to
protect biodiversity?
We’re developing web-based
tools to enable people to
easily identify the areas of
least risk within a granted
concession area (e.g. a 20km
zone) where they could decide
to build their factory or mine.
We’re finding that companies
are coming to us for help with
risk assessment now, mainly
because of some of the recent
high profile natural disasters.
Companies are realising that
preserving biodiversity is not
just a nice ‘add-on’, but is
incredibly important.
In what ways is the
Institute engaging in inter-
disciplinary collaboration?
I believe that we have nine
disciplines involved in our
projects now, from economics
to engineering science. For
example, we’re developing
an app that captures sound
to determine if there are
malaria or dengue-carrying
mosquitoes in the area. This
will enable us to get a better
understanding of the
distribution of diseasecarrying
insects across
these landscapes.
In terms of your own pure
research, what questions
are you hoping to answer?
I’m interested in ultraviolet B
(UVB) variations through time
and the impact on everything
from ecosystem dynamics
to genetic variability. Looking
into the future, what I’d love
to discover is the impact of
UVB on the genetic stability
of plants and to find out if a
rise in UVB is a key driver of
plant speciation.
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